ISSI半导体公司产品需求预测和主生产计划的分析和研究
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摘要
相对传统制造业,半导体行业是一个流程更复杂,对工艺技术要求更高,资金密集型的高科技产业,这种不同的产业特点决定半导体企业的管理也是不一样的,总体上来讲需要企业精益控制的程度更高,对市场的反应足够快。在产品需求预测和主生产计划方面,要求需求预测的前瞻性,准确性高,同时由于竞争的激烈,市场变化非常快,要求主生产计划跟进及时,并保持足够的弹性。
本文首先从供应链的角度对需求预测和主生产计划的理论作了综述,说明了需求预测在总个供应链中的重要性,需求预测的特点、影响因素,并重点介绍了目前常用的几种需求预测方法和主生产计划计算模式,然后结合ISSI半导体公司的具体组织结构,产品特点,外部市场环境等,找到ISSI在需求预测和主生产计划方面存在的问题,并针对这些问题提出解决方案,在需求预测方面主要针对目前在用的预测方法,怎样去优化：即结合趋势预测,将ISSI产品按市场需求稳定性不同分类,并就不同类别的产品选用不同的预测方法；同时对需求预测平台需要统一,如何提高产品预测准确性,稳定性——加强design跟踪等情况作等问题提出了解决方案；在主生产计划方面主要针对就不同类别的产品在主生产计划计算模式的选择上要有所区别。论文试图将需求预测和主生产计划的科学理论应用到ISSI实际工作中,优化ISSI在产品预测和主生产计划方面的管理,进而提高运作效率。
分析需求预测和主生产计划,必然需要联系库存管理。一个企业的库存状况是产品需求预测到主生产计划执行的结果,反过来也直接企业在需求预测和主生产计划方面工作的质量和水平。在ERP信息系统应用越来越广泛的今天,新的信息技术为库存管理带来了便利,也对库存管理提出了更高的要求,因此出现一些新的库存管理方法,本文首先就这些新方法如VMI(供应商库存管理),JMI(联合库存管理),委托第三方物流管理等作了一个理论介绍,在结合ISSI的实际库存状况,找出库存管理方面存在的问题,并就这些问题提出优化的方案：如何解决库存管理中存在的协调机制问题,信息传递问题,不确定性问题,绩效评估问题等。这些问题的解决或优化,必然使得ISSI库存管理水平上一个新的台阶。
Compared to traditional manufacturer, semiconductor industry's procedure is more complicated, and need more capital investment with high technology, the difference lead to the difference of company management compared to traditional industry, and there is higher requirement on process control and the response to market change, in the field of demand forecast and master production plan:we need earlier demand forecast with higher accuracy; the quicker response to market changes, keeping higher flexibility on production planning; better control on inventory etc.
Firstly this article introduces the theory of demand forecast and master production planning, it makes us known the importance of demand forecast and master production in supply chain, the major features, the influence elements. And it takes more effort to introduce the different ways of forecasting and production planning, how do those ways work etc. then we introduce the detailed status of ISSI Semi company like organization chart, production features, market environment etc. base current operation situation, not only trying to find the problems in the field of forecasting and production planning, but providing the solution on how to solve the problem like:in forecasting side, optimizing the ways of forecasting---combining current forecasting way with trend analysis, also before we use the trend forecasting ways, we need sort the products according to the stability of the demand of various products, base on sorting, we use different ways related to different sorts of products; consolidating the platform issue between 3 operation centers:US, TW, China; increasing the forecast accuracy and stability---enforce the tracking of design win status; in production planning side, we also need choose different calculation ways based on the different sorts of products, the differentiation of such products will be based on the demand features like forecast stability, new products or not, for single customer or not etc. through the analysis, the article tries to applies the theory to ISSI actual operation, finally improve the management of ISSI.
As we know, analyzing demand forecast and master production plan, we could not avoid investigating inventory management, one hand the inventory status is the result of the execution of forecasting and production planning, on the other hand it reveals the quality of forecasting and planning. Nowadays with the more applications of ERP information system, the new technology provides the convenience of inventory control, on the contrary it generates higher requirement to inventory control, so there are some new ways of inventory management like VMI(vendor management of inventory), JMI(Joint management of inventory) and logistics service assigned to the third party etc, the article introduces the new means of inventory management which is also used in ISSI, and the inventory status of ISSI, base on the situation, trying to find the problems of current inventory management of ISSI, and providing the solution on how to improve it. We believe if all the problem is solved, the lever of inventory management in ISSI will be upgraded to an new step.
本文首先从供应链的角度对需求预测和主生产计划的理论作了综述,说明了需求预测在总个供应链中的重要性,需求预测的特点、影响因素,并重点介绍了目前常用的几种需求预测方法和主生产计划计算模式,然后结合ISSI半导体公司的具体组织结构,产品特点,外部市场环境等,找到ISSI在需求预测和主生产计划方面存在的问题,并针对这些问题提出解决方案,在需求预测方面主要针对目前在用的预测方法,怎样去优化：即结合趋势预测,将ISSI产品按市场需求稳定性不同分类,并就不同类别的产品选用不同的预测方法；同时对需求预测平台需要统一,如何提高产品预测准确性,稳定性——加强design跟踪等情况作等问题提出了解决方案；在主生产计划方面主要针对就不同类别的产品在主生产计划计算模式的选择上要有所区别。论文试图将需求预测和主生产计划的科学理论应用到ISSI实际工作中,优化ISSI在产品预测和主生产计划方面的管理,进而提高运作效率。
分析需求预测和主生产计划,必然需要联系库存管理。一个企业的库存状况是产品需求预测到主生产计划执行的结果,反过来也直接企业在需求预测和主生产计划方面工作的质量和水平。在ERP信息系统应用越来越广泛的今天,新的信息技术为库存管理带来了便利,也对库存管理提出了更高的要求,因此出现一些新的库存管理方法,本文首先就这些新方法如VMI(供应商库存管理),JMI(联合库存管理),委托第三方物流管理等作了一个理论介绍,在结合ISSI的实际库存状况,找出库存管理方面存在的问题,并就这些问题提出优化的方案：如何解决库存管理中存在的协调机制问题,信息传递问题,不确定性问题,绩效评估问题等。这些问题的解决或优化,必然使得ISSI库存管理水平上一个新的台阶。
Compared to traditional manufacturer, semiconductor industry's procedure is more complicated, and need more capital investment with high technology, the difference lead to the difference of company management compared to traditional industry, and there is higher requirement on process control and the response to market change, in the field of demand forecast and master production plan:we need earlier demand forecast with higher accuracy; the quicker response to market changes, keeping higher flexibility on production planning; better control on inventory etc.
Firstly this article introduces the theory of demand forecast and master production planning, it makes us known the importance of demand forecast and master production in supply chain, the major features, the influence elements. And it takes more effort to introduce the different ways of forecasting and production planning, how do those ways work etc. then we introduce the detailed status of ISSI Semi company like organization chart, production features, market environment etc. base current operation situation, not only trying to find the problems in the field of forecasting and production planning, but providing the solution on how to solve the problem like:in forecasting side, optimizing the ways of forecasting---combining current forecasting way with trend analysis, also before we use the trend forecasting ways, we need sort the products according to the stability of the demand of various products, base on sorting, we use different ways related to different sorts of products; consolidating the platform issue between 3 operation centers:US, TW, China; increasing the forecast accuracy and stability---enforce the tracking of design win status; in production planning side, we also need choose different calculation ways based on the different sorts of products, the differentiation of such products will be based on the demand features like forecast stability, new products or not, for single customer or not etc. through the analysis, the article tries to applies the theory to ISSI actual operation, finally improve the management of ISSI.
As we know, analyzing demand forecast and master production plan, we could not avoid investigating inventory management, one hand the inventory status is the result of the execution of forecasting and production planning, on the other hand it reveals the quality of forecasting and planning. Nowadays with the more applications of ERP information system, the new technology provides the convenience of inventory control, on the contrary it generates higher requirement to inventory control, so there are some new ways of inventory management like VMI(vendor management of inventory), JMI(Joint management of inventory) and logistics service assigned to the third party etc, the article introduces the new means of inventory management which is also used in ISSI, and the inventory status of ISSI, base on the situation, trying to find the problems of current inventory management of ISSI, and providing the solution on how to improve it. We believe if all the problem is solved, the lever of inventory management in ISSI will be upgraded to an new step.
引文
[1],上海市经济和信息化委员会,上海市集成电路行业协会.2009年上海集成电路产业发展研究报告[R]上海：上海教育出版社,2009：3-7；28-30
[2],大卫.辛奇一利维,菲利普.卡明斯基等著,季建华,邵晓峰译,供应链设计与管理—概念、战略与案例研究[M]北京：中国财政经济出版社,2004：1-5
[3],戴维R.安德森等著；张建华,王健等译.商务与经济统计(原书第9版)[M]北京：机械工业出版社,2006：493-513
[4],迪米特里斯.伯特西马斯,罗伯特.M.佛罗因德著.数据、模型与决策：管理科学基础[M]北京：中信出版社,2002.
[5], Richard B. Chase, F. Robert Jacobs etc著；任建标等译.运营管理(原书第11版)[M]北京：机械工业出版社2008.
[6],欧阳光中,陈颖杰编著.公司财务(原书第二版)[M]上海：复旦大学出版社,2006.
[7],郁义鸿于立宏编著管理经济学一企业经营决策的经济分析[M]北京：高等教育出版社,2006.
[8],朱道立,龚国华,罗齐编著物流与供应链管理[M]上海：复旦大学出版社,2006：287-289
[9],骆品亮编著管理经济学[M]上海：上海财经大学出版社,2006.
[10], Robert F. Meigs, Mary A. Mergs, Mark Bettner, Ray Whittington Financial accounting(Ninth Edition)[M] 1998.
[11],肖瑞飞思卡尔公司供应链环境下的生产计划与控制体系研究[D].天津：天津大学,2007：36-38
[12],黄飞从供应链角度规划企业的供给、需求和库存[D].天津：天津大学,2003：10-12
[13],黎志成市场需求组合预测支持系统的研究[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2002：6-7
[14],姜太平供应链管理中的“牛鞭效应”[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2006
[15],赵霁 半导体制造业主生产计划和物料需求计划研究与开发[D].南京：东南大学,2003：17-20
[16], Thomas A. Curran, Andrew Ladd, SAP R/3 business blueprint[M]. US Prentice Hall PTR,1999:92-94
[2],大卫.辛奇一利维,菲利普.卡明斯基等著,季建华,邵晓峰译,供应链设计与管理—概念、战略与案例研究[M]北京：中国财政经济出版社,2004：1-5
[3],戴维R.安德森等著；张建华,王健等译.商务与经济统计(原书第9版)[M]北京：机械工业出版社,2006：493-513
[4],迪米特里斯.伯特西马斯,罗伯特.M.佛罗因德著.数据、模型与决策：管理科学基础[M]北京：中信出版社,2002.
[5], Richard B. Chase, F. Robert Jacobs etc著；任建标等译.运营管理(原书第11版)[M]北京：机械工业出版社2008.
[6],欧阳光中,陈颖杰编著.公司财务(原书第二版)[M]上海：复旦大学出版社,2006.
[7],郁义鸿于立宏编著管理经济学一企业经营决策的经济分析[M]北京：高等教育出版社,2006.
[8],朱道立,龚国华,罗齐编著物流与供应链管理[M]上海：复旦大学出版社,2006：287-289
[9],骆品亮编著管理经济学[M]上海：上海财经大学出版社,2006.
[10], Robert F. Meigs, Mary A. Mergs, Mark Bettner, Ray Whittington Financial accounting(Ninth Edition)[M] 1998.
[11],肖瑞飞思卡尔公司供应链环境下的生产计划与控制体系研究[D].天津：天津大学,2007：36-38
[12],黄飞从供应链角度规划企业的供给、需求和库存[D].天津：天津大学,2003：10-12
[13],黎志成市场需求组合预测支持系统的研究[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2002：6-7
[14],姜太平供应链管理中的“牛鞭效应”[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2006
[15],赵霁 半导体制造业主生产计划和物料需求计划研究与开发[D].南京：东南大学,2003：17-20
[16], Thomas A. Curran, Andrew Ladd, SAP R/3 business blueprint[M]. US Prentice Hall PTR,1999:92-94