北京市绿色GDP投入产出模型研究
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摘要
党的十七大会议提出了我国当代的发展观——科学发展观,要求我们转变发展观念,转变经济增长方式,大力推进经济增长方式向集约型、内涵式转变,提高经济发展的质量。这就要求政府的决策思维方式随之转变,而有效的决策必须以全面、准确的信息为基础,这就促使我们提出与新的经济发展方式相适应的国民经济核算体系,因而考虑了资源耗减和环境降级影响的绿色国民经济核算体系的建立成为了必然。
本文主要根据联合国提出的SEEA环境经济综合核算体系框架对北京市国民经济中资源耗减和环境降级的核算方法进行了理论探讨,尝试着对北京市环境降级情况进行了核算,并利用投入产出分析方法对绿色GDP(国内生产总值)投入产出表的编制和模型的建立进行了研究,编制了北京市2005年绿色GDP投入产出表并以此建立了绿色GDP投入产出模型,对北京市2005年经济发展过程中对环境降级的的影响情况进行了分析。具体来说就是利用北京市2005年投入产出(延长)表和绿色GDP投入产出表分别计算3部门、5部门和31部门的直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数,进行对比分析掌握北京市经济发展对环境降级的影响程度。在这些分析和研究的基础上,对北京市经济发展过程中存在的问题进行了讨论,并提出相应的建议,为北京经济的科学发展提供了重要依据。
The Scientific Outlook on Development advanced on the 17th national representative conference requires us to change the concept of development and promote transformation of the economic growth mode from an extensive mode to an intensive mode, and improve the quality of economic development. The transformation of sustainable development strategy requires the government's way of decision-making to be changed accordingly. An efficient decision always bases on comprehensive and accurate information. For that reason, we should prompt a new national accounting system suited to the new economic growth mode. The establishment of green GDP accounting system reflecting the depletion of resources and the degradation of environment becomes inevitable.
This paper conducted a theoretical study on the accounting methods of resources depletion and environmental degradation based on frame work of SEEA, and tried to account the environmental degradation of Beijing. This paper also researched how to compile the green GDP (i.e. national gross production) input-output table and how to establish the model using the method of input-output analysis and a green GDP input-output table of Beijing 2005 was compiled and a model was established. Based on the research, this paper analyzed the environmental degradation of Beijing 2005 during its economic growth. Specifically, we calculated the direct and total consumption coefficients separately using the input-output table and green GDP input-output table of Beijing. Through comparing the coefficients calculated by different tables the environmental degradation can be calculated. Based on the research and the analysis we can find some problems in the process of economic development of Beijing, and give some suggestion and theoretical analysis and support on how to prompt a sound economic development in future.
本文主要根据联合国提出的SEEA环境经济综合核算体系框架对北京市国民经济中资源耗减和环境降级的核算方法进行了理论探讨,尝试着对北京市环境降级情况进行了核算,并利用投入产出分析方法对绿色GDP(国内生产总值)投入产出表的编制和模型的建立进行了研究,编制了北京市2005年绿色GDP投入产出表并以此建立了绿色GDP投入产出模型,对北京市2005年经济发展过程中对环境降级的的影响情况进行了分析。具体来说就是利用北京市2005年投入产出(延长)表和绿色GDP投入产出表分别计算3部门、5部门和31部门的直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数,进行对比分析掌握北京市经济发展对环境降级的影响程度。在这些分析和研究的基础上,对北京市经济发展过程中存在的问题进行了讨论,并提出相应的建议,为北京经济的科学发展提供了重要依据。
The Scientific Outlook on Development advanced on the 17th national representative conference requires us to change the concept of development and promote transformation of the economic growth mode from an extensive mode to an intensive mode, and improve the quality of economic development. The transformation of sustainable development strategy requires the government's way of decision-making to be changed accordingly. An efficient decision always bases on comprehensive and accurate information. For that reason, we should prompt a new national accounting system suited to the new economic growth mode. The establishment of green GDP accounting system reflecting the depletion of resources and the degradation of environment becomes inevitable.
This paper conducted a theoretical study on the accounting methods of resources depletion and environmental degradation based on frame work of SEEA, and tried to account the environmental degradation of Beijing. This paper also researched how to compile the green GDP (i.e. national gross production) input-output table and how to establish the model using the method of input-output analysis and a green GDP input-output table of Beijing 2005 was compiled and a model was established. Based on the research, this paper analyzed the environmental degradation of Beijing 2005 during its economic growth. Specifically, we calculated the direct and total consumption coefficients separately using the input-output table and green GDP input-output table of Beijing. Through comparing the coefficients calculated by different tables the environmental degradation can be calculated. Based on the research and the analysis we can find some problems in the process of economic development of Beijing, and give some suggestion and theoretical analysis and support on how to prompt a sound economic development in future.
引文
[1]United Nations, Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting 2003, New York, 2003
[2]United Nations, Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting:An Operational Manual. Series F, No.78. New York:United Nations,2000
[3]Smith P. The Canadian National Accounts Environmental Component:A Status Report. London Group Meeting on National Accounts and Environment, London, March,1994
[4]Leontief W. Environmental Repercussions and the Economics System. Review of Economics and Statistics,1970, Vol.52, No.3:262-271
[5]Leontief W. and Ford D. Air Pollution and Economic Structure:Empirical Results of Input-Output Computations, Input-Output techniques, Amsterdam, North-Holland,1972
[6]Peter Kee and Mark de Haan, Accounting for Sustainable Development, Statistics Netherlands
[7]Joy E. Hecht, Environmental accounting:Will it meet the goals of ecological economics? Hecht-Environmental accounting and ecological economics,2001.8
[8]Walter Radermacher, Indicators, green accounting and environment statistics: Information and environment statistics-information requirements for sustainable development, International statistical review, Dec.1999, pp.339-354
[9]Ahmad YJ, SEI Serafy, Lutz E (eds). Environmental Accounting for Sustainable Development [M]. The World Band:Washington, D. C.,1989
[10]Bartelmus P. Accounting for Sustainable Growth and Development. Structual Change and Economic Dynamics,3 (2).242-260
[11]Nordhaus, William D. and James J. Tobin. "Is Growth Obsolete?" in studies in Income and Wealth, Vol.38, Moss, M. (ed.), New York:Columbia University Press for NBER,1973,509-532
[12]Peskin H M. Accounting for Natural Resource Depletion and Degradation in Developing Countries, Environmental Department Working Paper No.13, Washington D. C. The World Bank,1991
[13]Hamilton K. Green Adjustment to GDP. Resources Policy,1994,20:155-168
[14]Schafer D. and Stahmer C. Input-Output Model for the Analysis of Environmental Protection Activities. Economics Systems Research,1989, Vol.1, No.2:203-208
[15]Ayres, Kneese A. and Arge. Economics and environment:A Materials Balance Approach. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press 1970
[16]廖明球.经济、资源、环境投入产出模型研究.北京,首都经济贸易大学出版社,2005
[17]王德发.绿色GDP-环境经济综合核算体系及其应用.上海,上海财经大学出版社,2008
[18]雷明.绿色投入产出核算：理论与应用.北京,北京大学出版社,2000
[19]解三明.绿色GDP的内涵和统计方法.北京,中国计划出版社,2005
[20]钟契夫,陈锡康,刘起运.投入产出分析,北京,中国财政经济出版社,1993
[21]刘起运.宏观经济数量分析方法和模型.北京：高等教育出版社,2002
[22]朱启贵.绿色国民经济核算论.上海：上海交通大学出版社,2005
[23]联合国等.国民经济核算体系-1993.北京,中国统计出版社,1993
[24]联合国等.综合环境经济核算-2003.北京,中国经济出版社,2003
[25]廖明球.国民经济核算中绿色GDP的测算方法.统计研究,2000,6
[26]廖明球.行业绿色增加值核算方法的讨论.中国数量经济学会2008年会参会论文
[27]廖明球.绿色GDP投入产出模型建立的构想.统计与决策,2009,20：4-7
[28]於方,蒋洪强,曹东,王金南,高敏雪.中国绿色国民经济核算技术体系与方法概论.环境保护,2006,9
[29]高敏雪.SEEA对SNA的继承与扬弃.统计研究,2006,9
[30]高敏雪.中国环境经济核算体系理论框架的初步设计.环境经济杂志,2004,9
[31]高敏雪.绿色GDP的认识误区及其辨析.理论参考,2006,4
[32]杨缅昆.绿色GDP核算理论问题初探.统计研究,2001,2
[33]雷明.中国环境经济综合核算.中国软科学,1999,11
[34]雷明.中国环境经济综合核算体系框架设计.系统工程理论与实践,2000,10
[35]雷明.1995中国环境经济综合核算矩阵及绿色GDP估计.系统工程理论与实践,2000,11
[36]雷明.资源-经济投入产出核算——“绿色”总量指标核算.数量经济技术经济研究,1998,5
[37]国家环境保护总局、国家统计局,中国绿色国民经济核算研究报告2004(公众版).2006
[38]王金南,蒋洪强,曹东,於方.中国绿色国民经济核算体系的构建研究.世界科技研究与发展,2005,4
[39]雷明.可持续发展下的绿色核算——资源、经济、环境综合核算.地质出版社,1999
[40]高敏雪.环境统计与环境经济核算.中国统计出版社,2000
[41]北京市统计局,2005年北京市投入产出(延长)表
[2]United Nations, Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting:An Operational Manual. Series F, No.78. New York:United Nations,2000
[3]Smith P. The Canadian National Accounts Environmental Component:A Status Report. London Group Meeting on National Accounts and Environment, London, March,1994
[4]Leontief W. Environmental Repercussions and the Economics System. Review of Economics and Statistics,1970, Vol.52, No.3:262-271
[5]Leontief W. and Ford D. Air Pollution and Economic Structure:Empirical Results of Input-Output Computations, Input-Output techniques, Amsterdam, North-Holland,1972
[6]Peter Kee and Mark de Haan, Accounting for Sustainable Development, Statistics Netherlands
[7]Joy E. Hecht, Environmental accounting:Will it meet the goals of ecological economics? Hecht-Environmental accounting and ecological economics,2001.8
[8]Walter Radermacher, Indicators, green accounting and environment statistics: Information and environment statistics-information requirements for sustainable development, International statistical review, Dec.1999, pp.339-354
[9]Ahmad YJ, SEI Serafy, Lutz E (eds). Environmental Accounting for Sustainable Development [M]. The World Band:Washington, D. C.,1989
[10]Bartelmus P. Accounting for Sustainable Growth and Development. Structual Change and Economic Dynamics,3 (2).242-260
[11]Nordhaus, William D. and James J. Tobin. "Is Growth Obsolete?" in studies in Income and Wealth, Vol.38, Moss, M. (ed.), New York:Columbia University Press for NBER,1973,509-532
[12]Peskin H M. Accounting for Natural Resource Depletion and Degradation in Developing Countries, Environmental Department Working Paper No.13, Washington D. C. The World Bank,1991
[13]Hamilton K. Green Adjustment to GDP. Resources Policy,1994,20:155-168
[14]Schafer D. and Stahmer C. Input-Output Model for the Analysis of Environmental Protection Activities. Economics Systems Research,1989, Vol.1, No.2:203-208
[15]Ayres, Kneese A. and Arge. Economics and environment:A Materials Balance Approach. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press 1970
[16]廖明球.经济、资源、环境投入产出模型研究.北京,首都经济贸易大学出版社,2005
[17]王德发.绿色GDP-环境经济综合核算体系及其应用.上海,上海财经大学出版社,2008
[18]雷明.绿色投入产出核算：理论与应用.北京,北京大学出版社,2000
[19]解三明.绿色GDP的内涵和统计方法.北京,中国计划出版社,2005
[20]钟契夫,陈锡康,刘起运.投入产出分析,北京,中国财政经济出版社,1993
[21]刘起运.宏观经济数量分析方法和模型.北京：高等教育出版社,2002
[22]朱启贵.绿色国民经济核算论.上海：上海交通大学出版社,2005
[23]联合国等.国民经济核算体系-1993.北京,中国统计出版社,1993
[24]联合国等.综合环境经济核算-2003.北京,中国经济出版社,2003
[25]廖明球.国民经济核算中绿色GDP的测算方法.统计研究,2000,6
[26]廖明球.行业绿色增加值核算方法的讨论.中国数量经济学会2008年会参会论文
[27]廖明球.绿色GDP投入产出模型建立的构想.统计与决策,2009,20：4-7
[28]於方,蒋洪强,曹东,王金南,高敏雪.中国绿色国民经济核算技术体系与方法概论.环境保护,2006,9
[29]高敏雪.SEEA对SNA的继承与扬弃.统计研究,2006,9
[30]高敏雪.中国环境经济核算体系理论框架的初步设计.环境经济杂志,2004,9
[31]高敏雪.绿色GDP的认识误区及其辨析.理论参考,2006,4
[32]杨缅昆.绿色GDP核算理论问题初探.统计研究,2001,2
[33]雷明.中国环境经济综合核算.中国软科学,1999,11
[34]雷明.中国环境经济综合核算体系框架设计.系统工程理论与实践,2000,10
[35]雷明.1995中国环境经济综合核算矩阵及绿色GDP估计.系统工程理论与实践,2000,11
[36]雷明.资源-经济投入产出核算——“绿色”总量指标核算.数量经济技术经济研究,1998,5
[37]国家环境保护总局、国家统计局,中国绿色国民经济核算研究报告2004(公众版).2006
[38]王金南,蒋洪强,曹东,於方.中国绿色国民经济核算体系的构建研究.世界科技研究与发展,2005,4
[39]雷明.可持续发展下的绿色核算——资源、经济、环境综合核算.地质出版社,1999
[40]高敏雪.环境统计与环境经济核算.中国统计出版社,2000
[41]北京市统计局,2005年北京市投入产出(延长)表
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