我国通货膨胀与投资效率的关系研究
摘要
通货膨胀一直都是各国经济学家、学者、政府关注的经济现象,它是由多种因素共同造成的,不同国家、不同地域、不同时间所得到的研究结果也不尽相同,因此治理通货膨胀的效果并不理想。改革开放以来,我国发生了多次较大规模的通货膨胀,尽管政府出台一系列控制物价、应对通货膨胀的政策,但考虑到我国的经济发展目标、投资计划、复杂的国际形势,通货膨胀在可以预见的未来依然会是一个影响我国经济发展的重大问题。
我国国民经济持续快速发展建立在高投资、高消耗的基础之上。做为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,投资对经济增长的贡献作用非常突出。自2003年来,我国的投资率一直维持在一个较高的水平,超过了40%。但是,不容忽视的是,我国投资的投资效率却趋于不断下降。我国经济发展过程中,存在大量的重复建设、低水平建设。这些导致了资金的无效利用、产品积压,这些浪费的资源在实质上并没有形成有效的供给,导致社会总需求和总供给之间矛盾进一步加深,造成我国经济总量严重失衡,经济效益得不到有效保证,投资效率加剧恶化。
进一步来看,我国目前这种高投资、低投资效率的经济增长方式带来的后果不仅仅是资源浪费、盲目建设。长期维持高投资率,那么对于投资品的需求就会持续旺盛,进而引发信用膨胀,信贷规模不断扩张,央行只有不断增发货币进行弥补,这样最终导致货币超额发行,货币市场货币供应过多,加重已经出现的通货膨胀。通货膨胀的加重,反过来又会影响到经济效益,导致投资效率的下降,发展可能陷入恶性循环之中。由此得出,通货膨胀和投资效率存在密切的关系。
目前通货膨胀愈演愈烈,国际经济形势相当严峻,存在二次探底的可能性。我国经济发展不得不面对两难的境地：在控制物价、治理通货膨胀的同时还要保证国民经济的又好又快发展,即经济增长时要注意控制不能“过热”,而宏观调控时又要保证国民经济“软着陆”。而处在经济转型期的我国,投资的作用被无限放大,投资率不断攀升的同时,投资效率却不断下降是个不容忽视的现象。一个是目前的热点问题,一个是目前的现实问题。在这样的大背景下,将通货膨胀、投资效率二者放在一起研究,研究二者关系,对我国经济发展有很强的实际意义与实用价值。
本文在介绍我国通货膨胀以及投资效率的发展历史、现状的同时,重心放在研究二者关系之上。本文运用一般研究和实证研究相结合的研究方法,对其进行分析。其中,实证分析是基于协整关系、VAR等计量方法建立计量模型,从而更加准确和客观的分析二者之间的关系,为政策决策者提供一定的参考。
本文共分为五大部分,依据内容可以分为总论、通货膨胀和投资效率的发展历史和现状、一般研究、实证检验以及结论和政策建议。
第一部分,总论。从总体上分析论文探讨问题的背景,以及该问题在理论上和实践中的意义。然后对本文中主要研究的两个概念进行了界定,对通货膨胀、投资效率以及二者关系的国内外研究现状进行了综述,并对目前已有的理论研究成果进行了较为全面的总结。最后总结了论文的主要观点和创新点。
第二部分,通货膨胀的发展历史、现状。本部分针对改革开放后我国通货膨胀的发展变化情况,归纳了五次较大规模的情况,并一一进行了回顾和探讨,以图表的形式对我国通货膨胀的现状进行了分析。
第三部分,投资效率发展历史、现状。本部分根据对前面章节对投资效率的定义,对我国以往的投资效率进行核算,并进行概括和总结,同时对我国投资效率的发展现状和出现的原因进行分析。
第四部分,二者关系的分析,包括一般分析和实证分析。在一般分析中,对二者关系以及传导机制进行了分析。实证分析部分,根据第二、三部分的研究结果,通过VAR模型的建立,运用协整关系、Granger因果检验和脉冲响应和方差分解等计量方法,对二者关系进行了检验和分析,验证了本文关于我国通货膨胀和投资效率二者存在关系的主要观点。
第五部分,结论与政策建议。对通货膨胀和投资效率二者关系的理论研究和实证分析的结果形成结论,并对我国经济发展的后续操作提出了相应的政策建议。
Inflation has been consistently focused on by international economists, scholars and authorities, which is the result of several reasons, researching results from a variety of countries, regions and periods differ largely, consequently the effect of administration of inflation is far from satisfactory. Since the Open Policy. China has experienced several inflations in large scale, despite of a series of policies aiming to control the inflation, after considering domestic economic development target, investment plan and complex international situation, inflation can still be a great issue in sight that affecting China's economic development.
China's rapid growth on economy is based on high investment and high material consumptions. As one of the trinity for pulling the economies forward, investment makes great contributions to the growth of economy. Since 2003, China's investment ratio has been maintained in the high level of more than 40%. What cannot be neglected, however, our investment efficiency is declining over time. During the process of economic development, a large amount of repetitive construction in low quality result in low utility and inventory, which cannot form efficient supply, making the conflict between aggregate demand and aggregate supply deepen, then it deteriorates the imbalance of our total economy, the efficiency is not under security and investment efficiency is declining.
Further, what the high investment but in low efficiency bring about is more than the waste of resources and blind construction. The long period maintenance of high investment ratio drives the demand of investment output and the credit is in inflation, the loans are expanding and the central bank has to remedy them by issuing new currencies. which finally results in excess issuance of currency and inflation. The deepening inflation, in turn affects economic efficiency and the investment ratio declines, development is in vicious cycle. Consequently, inflation and investment efficiency are closely related.
Currently the inflation is going high, and the international situation is quite pessimistic, the probability of second dip still exists. China's economic development is facing the dilemma:rapid and qualified development must be guaranteed with proper price level and control of inflation. that is economy cannot be overheated when the development of economy. and the soft landing of national economy must be secured. China is in transitional period and the function of investment has been infinitely exaggerated, as investment ratio increases, the declining investment efficiency is a phenomenon that cannot be neglected. One is the current hot issue and the other is the realistic problem. Under the great context, the study of inflation and efficiency has great realistic significance and valuable importance for our development of economy.
This paper introduces the history of inflation and investment efficiency, meanwhile, the relationship of them is in great emphasis. This paper employs ordinary and empirical research methodology to explore this relation. In this paper, empirical study is based on the cointegration and VAR models, with which to study their links for policy-maker.
This paper has five parts, and they are:introduction, inflation and investment efficiency development history and current situations, ordinary research, empirical study, conclusion and suggestions.
Part one is the introduction. Generally this part analyses the issue's context and the significance in theory as well as practice. Then two basic concepts are defined and the relationship between inflation and investment efficiency as well as their current research situation, the existed research achievement is also summarized. Finally this part pools the main idea, creative points and limitations.
Part two is on the history and present situations of inflation. This part summarize five large-scale inflation and each is reviewed in graphs, further the inflation is also explored after the open policy.
Part three is on the history and current situations about investment efficiency. According to the concept of investment efficiency defined in previous parts, this efficiency is calculated and reviewed in previous years. Meanwhile this part analyzes the presence and reasons of our domestic investment efficiency.
Part four is about the analysis of the relationships between the two, including the ordinary analysis and empirical analysis. The ordinary analysis explores the relations and the mechanism of transmission. In empirical analysis. VAR models are established and cointegration methodologies are employed with the result of part two and three, also Granger casuality. impluse response and variance analysis are incorporrated to test the relationship between inflation and investment efficiency.
Part five is the conclusion and suggestion. This part concludes the theoretical research and empirical study from the relationship between inflation and investment efficiency, and provides suggestions to the future development of domestic economies.
我国国民经济持续快速发展建立在高投资、高消耗的基础之上。做为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,投资对经济增长的贡献作用非常突出。自2003年来,我国的投资率一直维持在一个较高的水平,超过了40%。但是,不容忽视的是,我国投资的投资效率却趋于不断下降。我国经济发展过程中,存在大量的重复建设、低水平建设。这些导致了资金的无效利用、产品积压,这些浪费的资源在实质上并没有形成有效的供给,导致社会总需求和总供给之间矛盾进一步加深,造成我国经济总量严重失衡,经济效益得不到有效保证,投资效率加剧恶化。
进一步来看,我国目前这种高投资、低投资效率的经济增长方式带来的后果不仅仅是资源浪费、盲目建设。长期维持高投资率,那么对于投资品的需求就会持续旺盛,进而引发信用膨胀,信贷规模不断扩张,央行只有不断增发货币进行弥补,这样最终导致货币超额发行,货币市场货币供应过多,加重已经出现的通货膨胀。通货膨胀的加重,反过来又会影响到经济效益,导致投资效率的下降,发展可能陷入恶性循环之中。由此得出,通货膨胀和投资效率存在密切的关系。
目前通货膨胀愈演愈烈,国际经济形势相当严峻,存在二次探底的可能性。我国经济发展不得不面对两难的境地：在控制物价、治理通货膨胀的同时还要保证国民经济的又好又快发展,即经济增长时要注意控制不能“过热”,而宏观调控时又要保证国民经济“软着陆”。而处在经济转型期的我国,投资的作用被无限放大,投资率不断攀升的同时,投资效率却不断下降是个不容忽视的现象。一个是目前的热点问题,一个是目前的现实问题。在这样的大背景下,将通货膨胀、投资效率二者放在一起研究,研究二者关系,对我国经济发展有很强的实际意义与实用价值。
本文在介绍我国通货膨胀以及投资效率的发展历史、现状的同时,重心放在研究二者关系之上。本文运用一般研究和实证研究相结合的研究方法,对其进行分析。其中,实证分析是基于协整关系、VAR等计量方法建立计量模型,从而更加准确和客观的分析二者之间的关系,为政策决策者提供一定的参考。
本文共分为五大部分,依据内容可以分为总论、通货膨胀和投资效率的发展历史和现状、一般研究、实证检验以及结论和政策建议。
第一部分,总论。从总体上分析论文探讨问题的背景,以及该问题在理论上和实践中的意义。然后对本文中主要研究的两个概念进行了界定,对通货膨胀、投资效率以及二者关系的国内外研究现状进行了综述,并对目前已有的理论研究成果进行了较为全面的总结。最后总结了论文的主要观点和创新点。
第二部分,通货膨胀的发展历史、现状。本部分针对改革开放后我国通货膨胀的发展变化情况,归纳了五次较大规模的情况,并一一进行了回顾和探讨,以图表的形式对我国通货膨胀的现状进行了分析。
第三部分,投资效率发展历史、现状。本部分根据对前面章节对投资效率的定义,对我国以往的投资效率进行核算,并进行概括和总结,同时对我国投资效率的发展现状和出现的原因进行分析。
第四部分,二者关系的分析,包括一般分析和实证分析。在一般分析中,对二者关系以及传导机制进行了分析。实证分析部分,根据第二、三部分的研究结果,通过VAR模型的建立,运用协整关系、Granger因果检验和脉冲响应和方差分解等计量方法,对二者关系进行了检验和分析,验证了本文关于我国通货膨胀和投资效率二者存在关系的主要观点。
第五部分,结论与政策建议。对通货膨胀和投资效率二者关系的理论研究和实证分析的结果形成结论,并对我国经济发展的后续操作提出了相应的政策建议。
Inflation has been consistently focused on by international economists, scholars and authorities, which is the result of several reasons, researching results from a variety of countries, regions and periods differ largely, consequently the effect of administration of inflation is far from satisfactory. Since the Open Policy. China has experienced several inflations in large scale, despite of a series of policies aiming to control the inflation, after considering domestic economic development target, investment plan and complex international situation, inflation can still be a great issue in sight that affecting China's economic development.
China's rapid growth on economy is based on high investment and high material consumptions. As one of the trinity for pulling the economies forward, investment makes great contributions to the growth of economy. Since 2003, China's investment ratio has been maintained in the high level of more than 40%. What cannot be neglected, however, our investment efficiency is declining over time. During the process of economic development, a large amount of repetitive construction in low quality result in low utility and inventory, which cannot form efficient supply, making the conflict between aggregate demand and aggregate supply deepen, then it deteriorates the imbalance of our total economy, the efficiency is not under security and investment efficiency is declining.
Further, what the high investment but in low efficiency bring about is more than the waste of resources and blind construction. The long period maintenance of high investment ratio drives the demand of investment output and the credit is in inflation, the loans are expanding and the central bank has to remedy them by issuing new currencies. which finally results in excess issuance of currency and inflation. The deepening inflation, in turn affects economic efficiency and the investment ratio declines, development is in vicious cycle. Consequently, inflation and investment efficiency are closely related.
Currently the inflation is going high, and the international situation is quite pessimistic, the probability of second dip still exists. China's economic development is facing the dilemma:rapid and qualified development must be guaranteed with proper price level and control of inflation. that is economy cannot be overheated when the development of economy. and the soft landing of national economy must be secured. China is in transitional period and the function of investment has been infinitely exaggerated, as investment ratio increases, the declining investment efficiency is a phenomenon that cannot be neglected. One is the current hot issue and the other is the realistic problem. Under the great context, the study of inflation and efficiency has great realistic significance and valuable importance for our development of economy.
This paper introduces the history of inflation and investment efficiency, meanwhile, the relationship of them is in great emphasis. This paper employs ordinary and empirical research methodology to explore this relation. In this paper, empirical study is based on the cointegration and VAR models, with which to study their links for policy-maker.
This paper has five parts, and they are:introduction, inflation and investment efficiency development history and current situations, ordinary research, empirical study, conclusion and suggestions.
Part one is the introduction. Generally this part analyses the issue's context and the significance in theory as well as practice. Then two basic concepts are defined and the relationship between inflation and investment efficiency as well as their current research situation, the existed research achievement is also summarized. Finally this part pools the main idea, creative points and limitations.
Part two is on the history and present situations of inflation. This part summarize five large-scale inflation and each is reviewed in graphs, further the inflation is also explored after the open policy.
Part three is on the history and current situations about investment efficiency. According to the concept of investment efficiency defined in previous parts, this efficiency is calculated and reviewed in previous years. Meanwhile this part analyzes the presence and reasons of our domestic investment efficiency.
Part four is about the analysis of the relationships between the two, including the ordinary analysis and empirical analysis. The ordinary analysis explores the relations and the mechanism of transmission. In empirical analysis. VAR models are established and cointegration methodologies are employed with the result of part two and three, also Granger casuality. impluse response and variance analysis are incorporrated to test the relationship between inflation and investment efficiency.
Part five is the conclusion and suggestion. This part concludes the theoretical research and empirical study from the relationship between inflation and investment efficiency, and provides suggestions to the future development of domestic economies.
引文
①实际利率等于预期的名义利率减去预期的通货膨胀率,而预期的通货膨胀率较高,当这种预期通货膨胀率比预期名义利率还要高时,二者差额即为负数。
②依据通货膨胀的理论,当通货膨胀发生时,对债务人有利,而对债权人不利。
①保罗·萨缪尔森、威廉·诺德豪斯.《经济学》第十六版,萧琛等译.北京：华夏出版社,第423页。
②约翰·伊特韦尔等：《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》第2卷,经济科学出版社,第861页。
①这和货币主义学派代表人弗里德曼的观点类似。弗里德曼认为,通货膨胀归根结底就是一个货币现象。
②因此,有的学者认为,通货膨胀是政府变相“搜刮民财”的一种手段,是一种阴谋论。
①除此之外,测度指数还有GDP平减指数和生产价格指数。
②来自国家统计局网站。
③萨缪尔森：《经济学》,中国发展出版社,1992年版,第45页。
①约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯：《就业、利息和货币通论》,陕西人民出版社,第262页。
①张成思：《通货膨胀动态机制与货币政策现实选择》,中国人民大学出版社,2009.第23页
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②依据通货膨胀的理论,当通货膨胀发生时,对债务人有利,而对债权人不利。
①保罗·萨缪尔森、威廉·诺德豪斯.《经济学》第十六版,萧琛等译.北京：华夏出版社,第423页。
②约翰·伊特韦尔等：《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》第2卷,经济科学出版社,第861页。
①这和货币主义学派代表人弗里德曼的观点类似。弗里德曼认为,通货膨胀归根结底就是一个货币现象。
②因此,有的学者认为,通货膨胀是政府变相“搜刮民财”的一种手段,是一种阴谋论。
①除此之外,测度指数还有GDP平减指数和生产价格指数。
②来自国家统计局网站。
③萨缪尔森：《经济学》,中国发展出版社,1992年版,第45页。
①约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯：《就业、利息和货币通论》,陕西人民出版社,第262页。
①张成思：《通货膨胀动态机制与货币政策现实选择》,中国人民大学出版社,2009.第23页
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