我国房地产金融风险研究
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摘要
房地产业与国民经济发展和人民的生产生活休戚相关,在拉动经济、刺激消费等方面作用显著,因此在一国国民经济的有着极其重要的地位。
随着近年来房地产市场的持续升温,房地产业蕴含的风险已经成为中国经济与金融的最大不稳定因素。在中国,房地产投资占全国固定资产投资的1/4,与房地产相关的贷款占银行总贷款的1/3。目前房地产抵押贷款是构成商业银行的主要资产之一,也是房地产业融资的主要渠道。因而房地产市场对银行部门有着很高的依赖度。
在这种情况下,对我国现阶段房地产金融风险进行研究,对房地产市场和和整个国民经济都具有重大价值和意义。
本文从首先结合房地产金融的宏观数据,定性地对我国房地产金融风险进行了分析与评判。选取具有代表性和说明性的指标来反映当前我国房地产市场中存在的问题和其中潜在的风险。在借鉴相关研究的基础上,结合当前的市场环境,分别选取国房景气指数、房地产投资完成额、房地产企业资金来源、商品房销售状况和房价收入比几个角度,来分析当前房地产价格合理性,房地产业的资金的周转安全性。
其次是利用非平稳时间序列的协整分析法对房地产业与宏观经济的协调性进行分析,对房地产价格是否存在泡沫进行判断。具体分析了商品房平均销售价格与GDP指标、居民消费水平和利率指标的协调程度,采用单位根检验、协整检验等方法,判断房地产价格与宏观经济的协调性,进而对我国房地产金融风险进行评价。总体上,目前我国房地产价格的变化与我国经济的快速增长基本相符合,并没有出现房价与经济发展水平和居民收入的相背离的发展趋势。但个别城市房屋销售价格的异常上涨,显然不同程度地脱离了各自与社会经济协调发展的轨迹,值得各界引起警惕。
然后从房地产业融资的角度进行分析,房地产业作为资金密集型行业,其发展需要金融系统的介入和支持。在国际经济形势复杂多变、国内政策调整约束的背景下,我国房地产市场趋势走向发生变化,房地产市场进入一个调整的时期,此时房地产企业的生存环境不再宽松,资金链风险令人担忧。这部分研究内容是针对房地产业资金链安全性稳定性,对我国房地产市场所隐含的金融风险进行分析。研究方法上利用自回归单整移动平均季节模型,结合政府提出相关政策,分析房地产企业的资金链的回流状况和安全问题,以及我国房地产市场中所蕴含的金融风险,对于实践中有重要的理论意义。
文章最后根据上述分析,针对房地产金融风险提出了四个方面的防范措施：建立完善的房地产金融风险评价体系,完善房地产信贷市场信息披露制度,发展多层次的房地产金融市场分散金融风险,加强社会公众的金融风险意识教育。
Real estate industry is an important industry for the national economy. It has a close relation with economic development and people's production and living, and play an important role in developmenting economics and stimulating consumption. Real estate industry has already been our economic development's Barometer.
With continued heating up in recent years, the real estate market has become China's largest economic and financial risks. In China, real estate industry investment is about 1/4 of the investment in the fixed assets, and real estate-related loans accounted for 1/3 of the bank's total loans. At present, China's real estate mortgage occupy a large proportion of the assets of commercial banks. This is also one of the major way of financing. So, China's real estate market is dependent on commercial banks on a high degree. The increasing housing vacancy rates, poor housing and funds shortage in are all the potential risks of China's real estate industry. Thus, making a study on the market risks of China's real estate industry at this stage has a great significance and value in both the real estate market and the entire country's macroeconomics.
At first in this paper, combining with the real estate market macro data, qualitative risk to China's real estate market analysis and evaluation, I analyze and evaluate the risks of China's real estate industry qualitatively and select the representative and illustrative indicators to reflect the current real estate market potential risks. Drawing previous studies, combined with the current market environment, national housing climate index, the amount of real estate investment, real estate sources of funds, real estate sales status and the ratio of the relative housing prices and people earnings have been selected to analyze, there is a bubble in the present real estate market, the capital flow and security of real estate enterprises.
The second part is to certificate the harmony of the real estate market and the macroeconomic, using nonstational time series and the cointegration analysis. Selecting average selling prices of commercial housing and GDP, household consumption level and the coordination of interest rate, using unit root test and cointegration test, this part analyses the coordination of property prices and macroeconomic and researches China's real estate market risks. At present, China's real estate price is in line with China's rapid economic growth and did not appear seriously out of the price level of economic development and the resident abilities to pay. Overall, the macro-economic growth can explain the growth of China's housing prices, housing price growth is supported by macroeconomic fundamentals. However, some cities housing prices rose abnormally, which is worthy of our attention. It is clear that the prices to some extent aside from the track of economic-socio coordination development relatively. Then, from the perspective of real estate financing, real estate as a capital-intensive industry, their development needs and support the involvement of the financial system. By the international financial crisis, China's housing market has begun to fall into a depressed state. With the downturn in the real estate market, real estate companies have become in more and poorer survival environment and have a poor funding chain tension. This part of the study analyzes the potential financial risks of China's real estate industry from the funds of the security chain of real estate companies. In response to financial crisis and combining with the government's policy, using autoregressive moving average season model, this part analyzes the chain of real estate funds business of the returning situation and security issues from two sides. All of the above is used to analyze the potential financial risks of China's real estate, which has signification on practice.
Finally, according to the above analysis, financial risks for the real estate corresponding preventive measures proposed:the establishment of a sound risk evaluation system for real estate finance, real estate credit markets improve information disclosure system, the development of multi-level real estate finance market spread financial risk, enhance public financial risk awareness education as the focus of the current regulation.
随着近年来房地产市场的持续升温,房地产业蕴含的风险已经成为中国经济与金融的最大不稳定因素。在中国,房地产投资占全国固定资产投资的1/4,与房地产相关的贷款占银行总贷款的1/3。目前房地产抵押贷款是构成商业银行的主要资产之一,也是房地产业融资的主要渠道。因而房地产市场对银行部门有着很高的依赖度。
在这种情况下,对我国现阶段房地产金融风险进行研究,对房地产市场和和整个国民经济都具有重大价值和意义。
本文从首先结合房地产金融的宏观数据,定性地对我国房地产金融风险进行了分析与评判。选取具有代表性和说明性的指标来反映当前我国房地产市场中存在的问题和其中潜在的风险。在借鉴相关研究的基础上,结合当前的市场环境,分别选取国房景气指数、房地产投资完成额、房地产企业资金来源、商品房销售状况和房价收入比几个角度,来分析当前房地产价格合理性,房地产业的资金的周转安全性。
其次是利用非平稳时间序列的协整分析法对房地产业与宏观经济的协调性进行分析,对房地产价格是否存在泡沫进行判断。具体分析了商品房平均销售价格与GDP指标、居民消费水平和利率指标的协调程度,采用单位根检验、协整检验等方法,判断房地产价格与宏观经济的协调性,进而对我国房地产金融风险进行评价。总体上,目前我国房地产价格的变化与我国经济的快速增长基本相符合,并没有出现房价与经济发展水平和居民收入的相背离的发展趋势。但个别城市房屋销售价格的异常上涨,显然不同程度地脱离了各自与社会经济协调发展的轨迹,值得各界引起警惕。
然后从房地产业融资的角度进行分析,房地产业作为资金密集型行业,其发展需要金融系统的介入和支持。在国际经济形势复杂多变、国内政策调整约束的背景下,我国房地产市场趋势走向发生变化,房地产市场进入一个调整的时期,此时房地产企业的生存环境不再宽松,资金链风险令人担忧。这部分研究内容是针对房地产业资金链安全性稳定性,对我国房地产市场所隐含的金融风险进行分析。研究方法上利用自回归单整移动平均季节模型,结合政府提出相关政策,分析房地产企业的资金链的回流状况和安全问题,以及我国房地产市场中所蕴含的金融风险,对于实践中有重要的理论意义。
文章最后根据上述分析,针对房地产金融风险提出了四个方面的防范措施：建立完善的房地产金融风险评价体系,完善房地产信贷市场信息披露制度,发展多层次的房地产金融市场分散金融风险,加强社会公众的金融风险意识教育。
Real estate industry is an important industry for the national economy. It has a close relation with economic development and people's production and living, and play an important role in developmenting economics and stimulating consumption. Real estate industry has already been our economic development's Barometer.
With continued heating up in recent years, the real estate market has become China's largest economic and financial risks. In China, real estate industry investment is about 1/4 of the investment in the fixed assets, and real estate-related loans accounted for 1/3 of the bank's total loans. At present, China's real estate mortgage occupy a large proportion of the assets of commercial banks. This is also one of the major way of financing. So, China's real estate market is dependent on commercial banks on a high degree. The increasing housing vacancy rates, poor housing and funds shortage in are all the potential risks of China's real estate industry. Thus, making a study on the market risks of China's real estate industry at this stage has a great significance and value in both the real estate market and the entire country's macroeconomics.
At first in this paper, combining with the real estate market macro data, qualitative risk to China's real estate market analysis and evaluation, I analyze and evaluate the risks of China's real estate industry qualitatively and select the representative and illustrative indicators to reflect the current real estate market potential risks. Drawing previous studies, combined with the current market environment, national housing climate index, the amount of real estate investment, real estate sources of funds, real estate sales status and the ratio of the relative housing prices and people earnings have been selected to analyze, there is a bubble in the present real estate market, the capital flow and security of real estate enterprises.
The second part is to certificate the harmony of the real estate market and the macroeconomic, using nonstational time series and the cointegration analysis. Selecting average selling prices of commercial housing and GDP, household consumption level and the coordination of interest rate, using unit root test and cointegration test, this part analyses the coordination of property prices and macroeconomic and researches China's real estate market risks. At present, China's real estate price is in line with China's rapid economic growth and did not appear seriously out of the price level of economic development and the resident abilities to pay. Overall, the macro-economic growth can explain the growth of China's housing prices, housing price growth is supported by macroeconomic fundamentals. However, some cities housing prices rose abnormally, which is worthy of our attention. It is clear that the prices to some extent aside from the track of economic-socio coordination development relatively. Then, from the perspective of real estate financing, real estate as a capital-intensive industry, their development needs and support the involvement of the financial system. By the international financial crisis, China's housing market has begun to fall into a depressed state. With the downturn in the real estate market, real estate companies have become in more and poorer survival environment and have a poor funding chain tension. This part of the study analyzes the potential financial risks of China's real estate industry from the funds of the security chain of real estate companies. In response to financial crisis and combining with the government's policy, using autoregressive moving average season model, this part analyzes the chain of real estate funds business of the returning situation and security issues from two sides. All of the above is used to analyze the potential financial risks of China's real estate, which has signification on practice.
Finally, according to the above analysis, financial risks for the real estate corresponding preventive measures proposed:the establishment of a sound risk evaluation system for real estate finance, real estate credit markets improve information disclosure system, the development of multi-level real estate finance market spread financial risk, enhance public financial risk awareness education as the focus of the current regulation.
引文
[1] Guttentag J M.Hering R. J.Financial Innovation to Stailize Credit Flow to Developing Countries [J],Studiesin Banking and Finance,1986,(3):263-304
[1] Ito Takatoshi Iwaisako Tokuo. Explaining Asset bubbles in Japan [J] NBER Working Paper.No.w5358.1995
[2] Garey. S. Mark(1990),Feeding and Fad:the Federal Land Market Efficiency, and the Farm Credit Crisis, Ph. D. dissertation. University of California
[3]谢经荣等：《地产泡沫与金融危机》,经济管理出版社,2002
[1]袁志刚等：《房地产市场理性泡沫分析》,《经济研究》2003年弟3期。
[2]周京奎：《金融过度支持与房地产泡沫-理论与实证研究》,北京大学出版时,2005
[1]根据《新帕尔克雷夫经济学大辞典》解释概括。
[1]人民银行战略发展部宏观经济分析课题组：《2009年我国房地产市场形势分析与2010年展望》
[1]菲利普·汉斯·弗朗西斯.商业和经济预测中的时间序列模型[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2002.168-237
[2]李子奈.计量经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000.322-367
[3]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].清华大学出版社,2006.236-278
[4]搜房研究院：中国房地产指数系统.理论与实践[M].北京：中国财经经济出社,2005
[5]吴德进,李国柱.房地产泡沫-理论、警示与治理[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007
[6]2009年货币政策执行报告[R].中央人民银行,2009
[7]李健飞.中国房地产融资风险防范一理论与实证[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2006
[8]M. John Quigley. Real Estate and Asian Crisis[J]. Journal of Housing Economics.2001.
[9]Bradford Case, M. John Quitley. The dynamics of real estate prices[J]. the review of economics and statistics,2008
[10]Geoffrey Meen. The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices:A transatlantic divide[J].Journal of Housing Economics,2003
[11]Fulai Huanga, Feng Wang.A system for early-warning and forecasting of real-estate development[J]. Automation in Construction,2005
[12]F.P. Mora, M. Park:Planning for Fast-tracking Building Construction Project[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2007
[13]Peter Jovanovic.Application of sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation under uncertainty and risk[J]. International Journal of Project management,2009
[14]Wong kar-jiu. Housing Market Bubbles and Currency Crisis:The Case of Thailand[C]. Presented at the International Conference on "The Asia crisis:The Economics Front" Held in Seattle,2003
[15]Marcus T. Allen, Jeff Madura and Kenneth J. Wiant. "Commercial Bank Exposure and Sensitivity to the Real-Estate Market"[J].The Journal of Real-Estate Research,2007
[16]Thomas, L.C.A Survey of Credit and Behavioral Scoring:Forecasting Financial Risk of Lending to Consumers[J].International Journal of Forecasting,2008.
[17]李国柱.中国房地产市场价格波动数量研究[D].[博士学位论文].成都：西南财经大学,2006
[18]李群荣.房地产周期性波动与商业银行抵押贷款风险控制研究[D].[硕士学位论文].长沙：湖南大学,2008
[19]孙晓丽.我国房地产融资风险研究[D].[硕士学位论文].青岛：青岛大学,2008
[20]秦雪.美国次债危机及启示[D].[硕士学位论文].济南：山东大学,2008
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[23]易宪容.房地产多元化融资：中国之发展[J].新金融,2005,(6)：24-28
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[1] Ito Takatoshi Iwaisako Tokuo. Explaining Asset bubbles in Japan [J] NBER Working Paper.No.w5358.1995
[2] Garey. S. Mark(1990),Feeding and Fad:the Federal Land Market Efficiency, and the Farm Credit Crisis, Ph. D. dissertation. University of California
[3]谢经荣等：《地产泡沫与金融危机》,经济管理出版社,2002
[1]袁志刚等：《房地产市场理性泡沫分析》,《经济研究》2003年弟3期。
[2]周京奎：《金融过度支持与房地产泡沫-理论与实证研究》,北京大学出版时,2005
[1]根据《新帕尔克雷夫经济学大辞典》解释概括。
[1]人民银行战略发展部宏观经济分析课题组：《2009年我国房地产市场形势分析与2010年展望》
[1]菲利普·汉斯·弗朗西斯.商业和经济预测中的时间序列模型[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2002.168-237
[2]李子奈.计量经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000.322-367
[3]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].清华大学出版社,2006.236-278
[4]搜房研究院：中国房地产指数系统.理论与实践[M].北京：中国财经经济出社,2005
[5]吴德进,李国柱.房地产泡沫-理论、警示与治理[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007
[6]2009年货币政策执行报告[R].中央人民银行,2009
[7]李健飞.中国房地产融资风险防范一理论与实证[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2006
[8]M. John Quigley. Real Estate and Asian Crisis[J]. Journal of Housing Economics.2001.
[9]Bradford Case, M. John Quitley. The dynamics of real estate prices[J]. the review of economics and statistics,2008
[10]Geoffrey Meen. The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices:A transatlantic divide[J].Journal of Housing Economics,2003
[11]Fulai Huanga, Feng Wang.A system for early-warning and forecasting of real-estate development[J]. Automation in Construction,2005
[12]F.P. Mora, M. Park:Planning for Fast-tracking Building Construction Project[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2007
[13]Peter Jovanovic.Application of sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation under uncertainty and risk[J]. International Journal of Project management,2009
[14]Wong kar-jiu. Housing Market Bubbles and Currency Crisis:The Case of Thailand[C]. Presented at the International Conference on "The Asia crisis:The Economics Front" Held in Seattle,2003
[15]Marcus T. Allen, Jeff Madura and Kenneth J. Wiant. "Commercial Bank Exposure and Sensitivity to the Real-Estate Market"[J].The Journal of Real-Estate Research,2007
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