采空区稳定的可靠度及其影响因素的敏感性分析研究
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摘要
目前我国大多数矿山,留下大量未处理的采空区。采空区的存在,严重影响了矿山的安全生产。因此,对采空区稳定性进行研究是十分必要的。影响采空区稳定性的因素很多,比如顶板暴露面积、矿柱的形状及尺寸、岩体的物理力学性质、岩体中的结构面、采空区赋存的条件、地下水、采矿时的爆破震动等等。这些因素具有复杂性和随机性,其特征是,实际情况往往难以预先知道,或者仅在某种程度上可加以预估而无确切的把握。正是由于这些不确定性因素存在,在采空区的认识中,存在较大困难。本文基于自重应力场(没有考虑构造应力),将数值模拟、敏感性和可靠度分析相结合的方法引入对采空区的稳定性研究工作中,通过研究,取得了一些有意义的成果。
1、将正交设计和数值模拟相结合,基于多因素、多指标的敏感性分析思想,通过综合分析比较,将影响采空区稳定的各因素进行了排序,最后确定围岩的物理力学参数、采空区高度、顶板暴露面积和采空区埋深这几个因素在进行可靠度分析时应该予以重点考虑。
2、根据莫尔强度理论,结合数值模拟分析的结果,利用多元线性回归,得出了采空区稳定的极限状态方程,基于蒙特卡洛法和JC法,编制了可靠度的计算程序。两种方法计算可靠度结果一致。
3、通过对可靠度的敏感性分析,得出埋深和围岩的力学参数是影响采空区稳定的重要因素,其次是采空区形状。
4、在实际工程中,对于一个具体的矿山而言,埋深和围岩力学参数是相对固定的,但可以控制采空区的形状。根据埋深和围岩力学参数来确定采场结构参数,是保证安全高效采矿的关键,也是保证采空区稳定的一项关键措施。
At present, a large number of untreated mined-out areas have been left in majority mines of China. The mined-out areas influence safety production of mine very seriously. Therefore, the research of the mined-out area stability is very essential. The factors that affect mined-out area stability are many, for instance the exposition area of the roof, the column shape and the size the mine pillar, the physical mechanics nature of rock massif, the rock massif structural plane, the mined-out area tax save time condition, ground water, mining demolition vibration and so on. These factors are complicated and random. Its characteristic is, the actual situation often with difficulty in advance knew, or only to a certain extent may perform to estimate, but not accurate assurance. These uncertainty factors cause the major difficulty in worked-out section understanding. This article based on the dead weight stress field (had not considered that tectonic stress), the method introduction which the numerical simulation, the sensitivity and reliability analysis unifies to the worked-out section investigation into stability work, through the research, has made some meaningful progresses.
The first, unify the orthogonal design and the numerical simulation, based on the multi-factors, multi objective's sensitive analysis thought that through the generalized analysis comparison, will affect the worked-out section stable various factors to carry on sorting, finally determined that the adjacent formation the physical mechanics parameter, the worked-out section highly, the roof exposition area and worked-out section burying depth these factors when carries on reliability analysis should give the key consideration.
The second, according to the Mole theory of strength, the union numerical simulation analysis's result, the use multi-dimensional linear regression, has obtained the worked-out section stable limiting condition equation, based on the Monte-Carlo and the JC, has established reliability computational procedure. Two methods computation reliability result is consistent.
The third, through to reliability sensitive analysis, obtains the burying depth and the adjacent formation mechanics parameter affects the worked-out section stable important attribute, next is the worked-out section shape.
The fourth, in the actual project, speaking of a concrete mine, the burying depth and the adjacent formation mechanics parameter are relatively fixed, what but may control the worked-out section shape, according to the burying depth and the adjacent formation mechanics parameter determined that the stope design parameter, is the guarantee safe highly effective mining key, also guarantees a worked-out section stable essential measure.
1、将正交设计和数值模拟相结合,基于多因素、多指标的敏感性分析思想,通过综合分析比较,将影响采空区稳定的各因素进行了排序,最后确定围岩的物理力学参数、采空区高度、顶板暴露面积和采空区埋深这几个因素在进行可靠度分析时应该予以重点考虑。
2、根据莫尔强度理论,结合数值模拟分析的结果,利用多元线性回归,得出了采空区稳定的极限状态方程,基于蒙特卡洛法和JC法,编制了可靠度的计算程序。两种方法计算可靠度结果一致。
3、通过对可靠度的敏感性分析,得出埋深和围岩的力学参数是影响采空区稳定的重要因素,其次是采空区形状。
4、在实际工程中,对于一个具体的矿山而言,埋深和围岩力学参数是相对固定的,但可以控制采空区的形状。根据埋深和围岩力学参数来确定采场结构参数,是保证安全高效采矿的关键,也是保证采空区稳定的一项关键措施。
At present, a large number of untreated mined-out areas have been left in majority mines of China. The mined-out areas influence safety production of mine very seriously. Therefore, the research of the mined-out area stability is very essential. The factors that affect mined-out area stability are many, for instance the exposition area of the roof, the column shape and the size the mine pillar, the physical mechanics nature of rock massif, the rock massif structural plane, the mined-out area tax save time condition, ground water, mining demolition vibration and so on. These factors are complicated and random. Its characteristic is, the actual situation often with difficulty in advance knew, or only to a certain extent may perform to estimate, but not accurate assurance. These uncertainty factors cause the major difficulty in worked-out section understanding. This article based on the dead weight stress field (had not considered that tectonic stress), the method introduction which the numerical simulation, the sensitivity and reliability analysis unifies to the worked-out section investigation into stability work, through the research, has made some meaningful progresses.
The first, unify the orthogonal design and the numerical simulation, based on the multi-factors, multi objective's sensitive analysis thought that through the generalized analysis comparison, will affect the worked-out section stable various factors to carry on sorting, finally determined that the adjacent formation the physical mechanics parameter, the worked-out section highly, the roof exposition area and worked-out section burying depth these factors when carries on reliability analysis should give the key consideration.
The second, according to the Mole theory of strength, the union numerical simulation analysis's result, the use multi-dimensional linear regression, has obtained the worked-out section stable limiting condition equation, based on the Monte-Carlo and the JC, has established reliability computational procedure. Two methods computation reliability result is consistent.
The third, through to reliability sensitive analysis, obtains the burying depth and the adjacent formation mechanics parameter affects the worked-out section stable important attribute, next is the worked-out section shape.
The fourth, in the actual project, speaking of a concrete mine, the burying depth and the adjacent formation mechanics parameter are relatively fixed, what but may control the worked-out section shape, according to the burying depth and the adjacent formation mechanics parameter determined that the stope design parameter, is the guarantee safe highly effective mining key, also guarantees a worked-out section stable essential measure.
引文
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[17]侯哲生,李晓,王思敬等.金川二矿某巷道围岩力学参数对变形的敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报.2005,24(3)：406-410
[18]苗胜军,李长洪,文俊等.基于正交试验设计的滑带土参数敏感性分析[J].中国矿业.2007,16(9)：76-79
[19]李艳华.岩土参数敏感性分析[J].广州建筑.2000,2：34～38
[20]徐超,叶观宝.应用正交试验设计进行数值模型参数的敏感性分析[J].水文地质工程地质.2004,31(1)：95～97
[21]倪恒,刘佑荣,龙治国.正交设计在滑坡敏感性分析中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报.2002,21(7)：989～992
[22]于学馥,郑颖人.地下工程围岩稳定分析[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,1983
[23]蔡美峰.金属矿山采矿设计优化与地压控制—理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2001
[24]田显高,陈慧明,陈松树.采空区稳定性的三维有限元模拟[J].矿业研究与开发.2007,27(1)：32～34
[25]李俊平,卢忠瑜ANSYS在采空区稳定性安全评价中的应用[J].中国钼业.2006,30(5)：13-17
[26]郭玉龙,任高峰.三维有限元数值模拟在采空区稳定性评价中的应用[J].西部探矿工程.2005,3：204～206
[27]张云.有限差分数值模拟在围岩稳定分析中的应用[J].西部探矿工程.2006,11：151-152,155
[28]武崇福,刘东彦,方志.FLAC3D在采空区稳定性分析中的应用[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版).2007,26(2)：136～140
[29]孙国权,李娟,胡杏保.基于FLAC3D程序的采空区稳定性分析[J].金属矿山.2007,2：29-32
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