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利用GPS数据研究地震电离层TEC异常
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摘要
空间对地观测技术具有覆盖面广、信息量大、动态性好以及分辨率高等优势,可以提供丰富的地震前兆信息。目前中国地震电磁卫星项目已经正式列入国家卫星发射规划。借助空间对地观测,配合地基观测手段,建立天地一体化的监测体系,有助于识别和提取与大震孕育发生过程有关的地震电磁、电离层、高能粒子前兆信息,实现我国及邻区大范围、连续的地震电磁信息时、空、强动态监测,提高我国地震预测的科学水平,增强短临预测能力,为地震预测预报实现突破提供基础。
     电离层应用于地震分析的研究在我国刚刚起步,地震异常的提取和确定还需要更多资料的积累验证。利用现有卫星数据及地面观测资料,提前开展地震电离层效应的分析研究,总结地震电离层效应的规律,是必须的准备工作之一。
     按照地震电磁立体观测体系发展思路,配合电磁卫星计划和地基电离层监测网的推进。本论文利用地基GPS观测体系,研究地震电离层TEC异常变化特征。对原有TEC异常检验方法进行优化改进,并发展了TEC异常信号探测、TEC扰动滤波分析等多种用于地震电离层TEC异常识别和信息提取技术的数据处理方法。基于中国大陆2000年以来的33个6级以上震例资料,对地震电离层扰动效应进行了统计研究,总结了强震前电离层异常特征。利用低轨GPS掩星数据和临频数据foF2开展了地震电离层扰动研究,从多参量角度揭示地震电离层扰动的时空演化过程。
     论文首先对地震及其成因、电离层及电离层扰动进行了介绍,调研了国内外地震电离层异常研究现状,回顾了国内外在地震电离层效应方面震例研究的案例,并初步介绍了地震电离层耦合机理。
     介绍了GPS系统的基本情况,包括GPS信号、GPS观测量及观测方程、GPS信号传播过程中的电离层延迟等。重点介绍了利用双频GPS获取电离层TEC的原理与方法。
     讨论了几种常用的TEC异常检验方法,在此基础上对地震电离层TEC扰动的检验方法进行了优化,并发展了几种用于地震电离层TEC异常识别的数据处理方法,具体如下:
     (1)对包络线法进行了优化改进。以前15天滑动TEC中值作为背景参考值,滑动四分位距作为异常判定界限,避免了离群值及震时震后效应的影响,有助于科学探讨震前电离层TEC扰动与地震孕育的关系。
     (2)利用Neyman-Pearson信号探测方法,对震前电离层TEC异常可能性进行初步定量分析。
     (3)发展了TEC扰动滤波方法。对单颗GPS卫星及单站间TEC时空变化过程进行详细研究。
     (4)开展了GPS掩星数据和临频数据的地震电离层扰动对比研究,从多参数角度揭示地震电离层扰动的时空演化过程。
     利用多种电离层异常检验方法,分析汶川地震前后电离层TEC异常变化,得到如下结果:
     (1)汶川震前TEC出现明显正异常。排除来自空间因素影响,震前三天出现的TEC正异常与汶川地震具有较大相关性。
     (2) TEC异常仅出现在汶川震中偏东南部,且异常区呈现共轭形态。
     基于2000年以来,中国大陆6级以上震例的电离层效应研究,初步总结了强震前电离层TEC异常特征。震例统计分析结果如下:
     (1)中强地震电离层TEC异常多出现在震前数天,为非持续性变化,异常持续时间多为几个小时,但一些大地震前TEC异常变化能持续几天。电离层TEC异常与震中区域的地方时有关。
     (2) TEC异常的变化形态可能为正异常也可能为负异常。TEC异常的相对变化幅度一般为20%~30%,某些大地震前TEC异常变化幅度可能超过100%。
     (3)中国大陆TEC异常区多偏震中东南方向,多种电离层参量的变化具有相似性。
Satellite technology can provide a wealth of information on earthquake precursors for it has wide coverage, large amount of information, good dynamic and high resolution. Now, China arthquake lectromagnetic atellite project has been officially included in the national plans of satellite launch. Based on observation satellite and , we can build a united observational system identify and extract informationelectromagnetic, ionosphere and high-energy particle to earthquake precursors and realize large-scale and continuous spatio-temporal observation of earthquake electromagnetic information for and surrounding areas. And it can improve the scientific level for earthquake forecastthe ability for short-term prediction and can provide the basis of breakthrough for earthquake forecast.
     Ionospheric research for seismic analysis in China has just started, and seismic anomaly extractions need more information to determine and validate. The seismo-ionospheric effect is not only observed by satellite technology, but also by effective ground observation technology. Using the existing satellite data and ground observation data to research the seismo-ionospheric effects and summarizing the law of seismo-ionospheric effect is one of the necessarily preparatory work.
     According to the development of three dimension electro-magnetic observation system for earthquake, in this thesis, researches on the abnormal characteristic of TEC of seism based on the observation system of GPS have been done. The aim of this study is to promote the electro-magnetic satellite project. Based on the GPS data of Crustal Movement Observation Network of China and the TEC Map data provided by JPL, seismo-ionospheric effect is also investigated. In this work, ionospheric TEC abnormal test methods at home and abroad are reviewed and optimized. Several methods, such as TEC abnormal signal detection and analysis of TEC disturbance filter, are advanced to test seismp-ionospheric TEC anomaly. Using these methods, we make a statistical analysis of earthquake cases on the basis of M≥6 earthquakes occurred after 2000 in China, and summarize ionospheric abnormal characteristics before strong earthquakes to provide support for the application of ionospheric monitoring methods in earthquake prediction. In order to research the ionospheric abnormal characteristic with ground GPS, the data of COSMIC and f0F2 are analyzed to examine the ionospheric disturbance before earthquake.
     Firstly, earthquake and its causes, the ionosphere and ionospheric disturbance are introduced; the research status of seismo-ionospheric effect at home and abroad are investigated; the case studies and statistics studies about seismo-ionospheric effect at are reviewed; the mechanisms of the seismo-ionosphere coupling are also introduced.
     Secondly, the basic situation of GPS system, including GPS signal, GPS observables and the observation equations, and GPS signal propagation delay in the ionosphere are introduced. We focus the principles and methods of calculating TEC using the GPS data, and discuss the method and corresponding algorithms in detail using the Dual-frequency GPS.
     Then, several test method in TEC disturbance are discussed and optimized, and some methods to test TEC anomaly are proposed as follows:
     (1) Optimization of the envelope method. We make the smoothing TEC median value before 15 days as the reference values, the smooth interquartile range as abnormal detection bound, and it contributes to scientific research of the relationship between the ionospheric TEC disturbance before the earthquake and the earthquake preparation.
     (2) Combination of Neyman-Pearson test in signal processing and hypothesis testing in statistics. To test the possibility of the TEC anomaly before the earthquake, we use two mathematical methods in different subject to make a preliminary quantitative analysis.
     (3) Study in detail TEC change between a single GPS satellite and GPS station, and filter the TEC change from observations of each GPS satellite and station.
     (4) Study the seismo-ionospheric effect from a variety of ionospheric parameters. It can provide the reference basis for ionospheric TEC anomalies of seismic testing through the comparative study of ground GPS, COSMIC and foF2 probed by the ionosondes.
     By taking the Wenchuan earthquake as an example, the method for testing ionospheric TEC disturbance before and after the earthquakes have been used and following results are obtained.
     (1) Significant positive TEC anomalies appeared at GPS reference stations near the epicenter on May 3 and May 9 before the Wenchuan earthquake. Excluding the influence of factors from the space, TEC anomalies on May 9, 3 days before the earthquake show close correlation with the Wenchuan earthquake.
     (2) Analysis on the spatial distribution of TEC shows that the area of the TEC anomalies before the earthquakes did not appear right above the epicenter, but above the area south east to the epicenter. The global distribution of DTEC shows that the area of the TEC anomalies above Chinese mainland appeared only near the epicenter and there was a conjugate form for positive anomalies appeared 3 days before the earthquake.
     Based on 33 earthquakesoccurr in China we study the effect of ionosphere and summarize the characters of TEC abnormal before big earthquake. The statistical results are as follows:
     (1) The TEC abnormal usually appears several days before earthquake and discontinuous and lasts few hours each day except for some strong earthquake. The TEC abnormal associated with local time at epicenter.
     (2) The TEC variations can have a positive or negative sign. The relative magnitudes of the TEC anomalies were in the range of 20%~30%, but may be larger than 100% at certain time before individual large earthquakes.
     (3) The areas of the TEC anomalies before the earthquakes did not always appear above the epicenters, they may shift towards the equator. Ionospheric disturbances may appear in the conjugate area of the earthquake epicenter along the magnetic lines. A variety of ionospheric parameters have similar changes with TEC.
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