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利用GPS观测数据评估川滇南部地区活动断裂地震危险性
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摘要
GPS以其高精度、低成本、适于密集布设和观测简单灵活等卓越特性,为各种规模尺度(从全球板块到局部断裂段)的地壳形变监测,以及构造运动提供了革命性的观测手段。最近十几年,随着国家重大科学工程“地壳运动观测网络”的实施,积累了海量GPS观测资料,同时GPS观测技术和数据处理水平有了极大的提高,这为中国大陆现今水平形变场和地震危险性的研究提供了重要的基础数据。川滇地区位于青藏高原东南缘,新生代以来受青藏高原地壳物质向东侧向运移和阿萨姆构造结顶点楔入的共同作用,使得这一地区的地壳变动异常复杂,新构造变形和地震活动十分强烈,是中国大陆最显著的强震活动区域,积累了丰富的地震和活动断裂资料,而且GPS台站比较密集,拥有多期GPS观测资料,从而为本论文的分析研究工作提供了充足的数据源。
     本论文在系统总结当前国内外地震危险性分析方法的基础上,探索利用GPS观测数据定量评估活动断裂地震危险性的方法,并以川滇南部地区为例进行了试算。
     首先,利用中国地壳运动观测网络(“CMONOC”) GPS观测数据,采用二次插值法计算了川滇南部应变率场(最大主应变率、最小主应变率、面膨胀率、最大剪应变率),为本区域地球动力学和活动断裂地震危险性分析提供了至关重要的约束参数,并利用Kostrov方法计算了该地区地震矩率,在此基础上,以一种不同于地质学的独立方法,获得了本区域主要活动断裂地震平均复发间隔。
     然后将GPS观测资料与实时概率模型相结合,初步建立了川滇南部地震危险性评价的大地测量模型,计算获得了川滇南部主要活动断裂未来不同时段发震概率,结果显示安宁河断裂小相岭段、冕宁-西昌段是本区域未来大地震潜在危险区。考虑到地震复发行为的复杂性,分高震级档和中强震两部分做计算,高震级档部分同时考虑了特征地震复发模式和古登堡-里克特模式,虽然两种模型在权重系数确定上仍有主观性,但是与单一的特征地震模型或G-R指数模型相比,在一定程度上解决大震频度不能利用中小震资料外推的问题,能较真实的反映大震复发规律。
     最后讨论了实时概率模型对地震危险性计算结果的影响,通过对比发现,实时概率模型(BPT模型和Lognormal模型)与非实时概率模型(Poisson模型)的结果相比,有一定的规律性:当特征地震离逝时间与地震复发间隔之比较小时,BPT模型和Lognormal模型获得的结果大于Poisson模型的结果;当特征地震离逝时间与地震复发间隔之比较大时,BPT模型和Lognormal模型获得的结果小于Poisson模型的结果。另外,发震概率随着预测时间窗的增加而呈现增高趋势,这与弹性回跳理论“应力积累到一定程度后突然以地震形式释放,然后开始下一轮回的能量积累”的理论基础相符合,同时也在一定程度上说明了本文结果的合理性
GPS (Global Positioning System), with its outstanding capabilities such as high accuracy, low expense, dense distribution and flexible survey revolutionarily improves the observations of crustal deformation and tectonic movement at all scales. In the past decade, with the implementation of the national major scientific project Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC), massive GPS data are accumulated. Sichuan-Yunnan region is one of the areas with the most active seismicity in China Mainland. There are also dense GPS stations and multi-phase GPS observation data which provide sufficient data for this thesis.
     Through a systemic summary of the methods for seismic hazard analysis both at home and abroad, this thesis explores the method for seismic hazard quantitative evaluation of active faults based on GPS with southern Sichuan-Yunnan region as an example.
     First, the seismic moment rate and crustal deformation parameters are calculated according to the CMONOC GPS observation data. Average earthquake recurrence intervals of the major active faults in the region are calculated using GPS velocity field data, which is different with the geology as an independent method. The results are not only the addition to the geological results, but also to provide an independent check.
     Second, we establish the geodetic model for seismic hazard quantitative evaluation of active faults of Sichuan-Yunnan region, with the combination of GPS observation data and real-time probability model. The conditional probability of the major active faults in southern Sichuan-Yunnan region is calculated. Taking into account the complexity of earthquake recurrence behavior, the characteristic earthquake model and Gutenberg-Richter model are both used in the large magnitude earthquakes. Compared with the single characteristic earthquake model and the G-R exponential model, it better reflects the recurrence law of large earthquake.
     Finally, we express the effect of time-dependence on PSHA. The result of BPT model and Lognormal model is larger than the result of Poisson model when the ratio between the elapse time and average recurrence intervals is low. In addition, the probability tends to increase as the prediction time increase, which is in line with the theoretical foundation that the higher the probability, the strain accumulation time is longer in real-time probability model.
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