房地产项目投资风险分析
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摘要
随着我国经济的发展和人民物质追求的不断提高,房地产领域投资活动也日益活跃。房地产业现已成为我国国民经济的支柱产业之一。但是我国房地产市场机制还不够完善,政策法规尚不健全,近几年我国的房地产业持续出现投资过热、房价飞涨、国家宏观调控不理想等现象。面对房价,百姓多有抱怨,政府也不断进行调控,房地产业现已成为高风险行业之一。房地产业已成为关乎社会和谐、人民生活是否安定的重要因素。对房地产投资风险的研究成为理论界和实业界面临的重要课题。
论文对影响房地产投资的风险因素做了论述,概括为政策风险、经济风险、社会风险、管理风险等几个大类。在此基础上对风险因素进行了结构化分析。从宏观层次出发,构建了房地产投资风险的指标体系。根据经济分析法的要求,本文从指标体系中选取了房地产投资占GDP的比重、空置率指标、房价收入比指标、房价增长率/GDP增长率来对房地产投资风险进行测度。由于房地产市场地域性差异比较大,所以本文选取西安市作为研究的对象,用《西安统计年鉴》中的数据对指标进行量化,最后用指数合成法对风险进行深化。最后得出了西安市近些年房地产市场的风险程度。
As China's economic development and the pursuit of continuous improvement of people's material, real estate investment activities are also increasingly active. Real estate has become one of China's pillar industries. But China's real estate market mechanism is not perfect, policies and regulations are not perfect, the real estate industry in China in recent years, persistent overheated investment, house prices, the national macro-control is not ideal and so on. The face of housing prices, many people have complained that the Government continues to regulate the real estate industry has become a high-risk industry. The real estate industry has become about social harmony and stability of people's lives is an important factor. Risks of real estate investment theory and the business community is facing a major issue.
Real estate investment thesis on the impact of the risk factors that are discussed and summarized for policy risk, economic risk, social risk, management risk, and several other categories. On the basis of risk factors on the structural analysis, Starting from the macro level, build a real estate investment risk index system. According to the requirements of economic analysis, this indicator system is selected from the real estate investment share of GDP, the vacancy rate index, price earnings ratio index, house prices growth rate / GDP growth rate to measure risk in real estate investment. As the real estate market is relatively large regional differences, this article selected as the object of study in Xi'an, with the "Xi'an Statistical Yearbook," the indicators in the quantitative data, with the final synthesis of the risk index to deepen. Finally, the real estate market in recent years, Xi'an obtained the degree of risk.
论文对影响房地产投资的风险因素做了论述,概括为政策风险、经济风险、社会风险、管理风险等几个大类。在此基础上对风险因素进行了结构化分析。从宏观层次出发,构建了房地产投资风险的指标体系。根据经济分析法的要求,本文从指标体系中选取了房地产投资占GDP的比重、空置率指标、房价收入比指标、房价增长率/GDP增长率来对房地产投资风险进行测度。由于房地产市场地域性差异比较大,所以本文选取西安市作为研究的对象,用《西安统计年鉴》中的数据对指标进行量化,最后用指数合成法对风险进行深化。最后得出了西安市近些年房地产市场的风险程度。
As China's economic development and the pursuit of continuous improvement of people's material, real estate investment activities are also increasingly active. Real estate has become one of China's pillar industries. But China's real estate market mechanism is not perfect, policies and regulations are not perfect, the real estate industry in China in recent years, persistent overheated investment, house prices, the national macro-control is not ideal and so on. The face of housing prices, many people have complained that the Government continues to regulate the real estate industry has become a high-risk industry. The real estate industry has become about social harmony and stability of people's lives is an important factor. Risks of real estate investment theory and the business community is facing a major issue.
Real estate investment thesis on the impact of the risk factors that are discussed and summarized for policy risk, economic risk, social risk, management risk, and several other categories. On the basis of risk factors on the structural analysis, Starting from the macro level, build a real estate investment risk index system. According to the requirements of economic analysis, this indicator system is selected from the real estate investment share of GDP, the vacancy rate index, price earnings ratio index, house prices growth rate / GDP growth rate to measure risk in real estate investment. As the real estate market is relatively large regional differences, this article selected as the object of study in Xi'an, with the "Xi'an Statistical Yearbook," the indicators in the quantitative data, with the final synthesis of the risk index to deepen. Finally, the real estate market in recent years, Xi'an obtained the degree of risk.
引文
[1]全球房价拐点将至房地产黄金产业光环要色衰[EB/OL]:中国新闻网,2005-1-11
[2]建设部攘外安内平稳房价宏观调控已见成效[N].京华时报,2004.11
[3]王家强.高度关注房地产信贷风险困[N].第一财经日报,2008,4 (2l) : 5
[4]房地产还是不是国民经济支柱?[N]第一财报.2011.1.10
[5] Wurkzebach. Modern Real Estate[M].John Wiley&Sons,1991:1273
[6]克里斯蒂安·戈利耶.风险和时间经济学[M].中信出版社,2003/5
[7] Roger P.Sindt. Real Estate Investment Analysis and Applications[J]. Prentice Hall, 1998: 1-281
[8] Gaylon.e.Greer. Investment Analysis For Real Estate Decisions[J]. Prentice Hall, 1999: 1-145
[9] Peter Jovanovic. Application of sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation underuncertainty and risk[J]. International Journal of Project management.Vol.17, No.4, 1999:217-222
[10] Jaafari A.. Management of Risk,uncertainties and opportunities on projects: time for A fundamental shift[J]. International Journal of project Management. 200l. 19(2).89-101.
[11] Uher T.E.Toakley A.R.Risk management in the conceptual phase of a Project. International Journal of Project Management[M]. 1999. 17(3). 161-169.
[12] Charatte R. N.. software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management. New York.Intertext Publication Mcgraw-hill.1989.
[13] Raz T.,Michael E. Use and benefits of tools for project risk management[J]. Internation Journal of Project Management.2001.19(1).9一19.
[14] Boehm B. W.. software Risk Management: principles and Practices[J]. IEEE software. 1991(8).
[15] Kliem R. L. and Ludin I. S. . Reducing project Risk.Gower[M].1997.
[16] Rao Tummala. V. M.,NKasu M.M. and Chuah K. B. . A Systematic Approach To Project Risk Management[M]. Mathematical Modeling and Scientific Computing. 1994. (4).
[17] Fairley R. .Risk Management for software project[M]. IEEE software.1994.11(3)
[18] Bertrand M. . Spatial Analysis of Real Estate Index Linked swaps[J]. Journal of Housing Economies.2002. (11).
[19]陈佑启.房地产投资风险管理及经营决策方法[M].山西经济出版社,1993
[20]李启明.房地产投资风险及其辨识[J].建筑经济1995.11
[21]申立银,俞明轩.房地产市场风险[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1999:1~28.
[22]王伟宁,李淑同.房地产开发项目可行性研究与经济评价手册[M].北京:地震出版社,2001,231~320
[23]赵世强.房地产风险管理[M].中国建材工业出版社,2003
[24]贾楠,刘志才.关于房地产投资风险类型的研究[J].建筑管理现代化. 2002. (2). 38-40.
[25]王俊松.房地产投资风险概述[J].经济与管理. 2005.19(5).51-53.
[26]周鲜华,周立颖.房地产投资的风险及其防范[J].哈尔滨建筑大学学报[J]. 1998. (5)
[27]刘美玲,董芹芹.房地产投资中的主要风险及防范[J].武汉理工大学学报. 2005. (1)
[28]钱李亮.我国现行土地供应制度的风险研究[J].城市管理与科技. 2006. (1)
[29]张小芳.房地产项目风险影响因素分析[J].山西建筑. 2007. (1).
[30]王鹏,吕超.房地产投资风险的识别与控制[J].城市开发.2001. (4). 38-39.
[31]李宁远,翁彩红,刘洪.房地产开发风险管理[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版). 2004.21(2).104-106.
[32]娄国豪.谈两岸房地产市场投资风险异同[J].商业时代.2007. (13)
[33]粟国敏.房地产项目投资风险评价研究[J].工业技术经济. 2003. (6). 78-81.
[34]刘波.房地产项目投资风险与实例分析[D],武汉:华中科技大学,2006
[35]李涛.房地产开发投资风险因素分析及评价研究[D],北京:中国农业大学,2004
[36]刘强.企业房地产项目投资风险管理研究[D],江苏大学,2006.12
[37]朱晓鸥.房地产投资项目的风险分析[D],天津大学,2005.6
[38]王炜敏.房地产投资的风险评价方法研究[D],内蒙古工业大学,2007.5
[39]章程.房地产项目投资风险决策[D],浙江大学,2003.2
[40]邵超群.房地产投资风险分析与综合评价[D],中南大学,2008.11
[41]李莉华,张亮,王晓敏,王亮.基于AHP模糊综合评判对国外资金投资房地产的风险分析[J].华北水利水电学院学报.2007. (3).
[42]章连根.房地产市场风险分析方法研究[J].中国水运(学术版).2007. (8).
[43]陈琳,潘蜀健.房地产开发项目投资风险度量研究[J].广州大学学报(自然科学版).2003.
[44]乔婉凤,张声东.基于蒙特卡罗方法的房地产投资风险分析研究[J]武汉理工大学学报.2004,26(7)
[45]王丽梅.房地产投资风险分析方法的比较研究[J].经济研究导刊.2007. (1).
[46]刘瑶,钟金如.房地产投资风险的仿真评估[J].华东交通大学学报2005,5
[47]张建坤,张蹼.房地产投资项目融资风险的灰色模糊评判研究.建筑管理现化.2004.(4).
[48]冯套柱,孟亚宁.房地产投资风险评价研究[J].沈阳理工大学学报[J],2005(3)
[49]鲍学英,柏琼.SWOT技术在房地产投资风险管理中的应用研究[J].兰州交通大学报,2008:35-37
[50]孟强.基于层次分析法的房地产项目风险管理[J].商业经济,2008:45-46
[51]杜德权,袁赞良.基于模糊评价的投资风险决策[J].商业研究2003,11
[52]陈晓慧,刘炜.房地产投资风险的模糊评价.武汉理工大学学报.2003.(1).
[2]建设部攘外安内平稳房价宏观调控已见成效[N].京华时报,2004.11
[3]王家强.高度关注房地产信贷风险困[N].第一财经日报,2008,4 (2l) : 5
[4]房地产还是不是国民经济支柱?[N]第一财报.2011.1.10
[5] Wurkzebach. Modern Real Estate[M].John Wiley&Sons,1991:1273
[6]克里斯蒂安·戈利耶.风险和时间经济学[M].中信出版社,2003/5
[7] Roger P.Sindt. Real Estate Investment Analysis and Applications[J]. Prentice Hall, 1998: 1-281
[8] Gaylon.e.Greer. Investment Analysis For Real Estate Decisions[J]. Prentice Hall, 1999: 1-145
[9] Peter Jovanovic. Application of sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation underuncertainty and risk[J]. International Journal of Project management.Vol.17, No.4, 1999:217-222
[10] Jaafari A.. Management of Risk,uncertainties and opportunities on projects: time for A fundamental shift[J]. International Journal of project Management. 200l. 19(2).89-101.
[11] Uher T.E.Toakley A.R.Risk management in the conceptual phase of a Project. International Journal of Project Management[M]. 1999. 17(3). 161-169.
[12] Charatte R. N.. software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management. New York.Intertext Publication Mcgraw-hill.1989.
[13] Raz T.,Michael E. Use and benefits of tools for project risk management[J]. Internation Journal of Project Management.2001.19(1).9一19.
[14] Boehm B. W.. software Risk Management: principles and Practices[J]. IEEE software. 1991(8).
[15] Kliem R. L. and Ludin I. S. . Reducing project Risk.Gower[M].1997.
[16] Rao Tummala. V. M.,NKasu M.M. and Chuah K. B. . A Systematic Approach To Project Risk Management[M]. Mathematical Modeling and Scientific Computing. 1994. (4).
[17] Fairley R. .Risk Management for software project[M]. IEEE software.1994.11(3)
[18] Bertrand M. . Spatial Analysis of Real Estate Index Linked swaps[J]. Journal of Housing Economies.2002. (11).
[19]陈佑启.房地产投资风险管理及经营决策方法[M].山西经济出版社,1993
[20]李启明.房地产投资风险及其辨识[J].建筑经济1995.11
[21]申立银,俞明轩.房地产市场风险[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1999:1~28.
[22]王伟宁,李淑同.房地产开发项目可行性研究与经济评价手册[M].北京:地震出版社,2001,231~320
[23]赵世强.房地产风险管理[M].中国建材工业出版社,2003
[24]贾楠,刘志才.关于房地产投资风险类型的研究[J].建筑管理现代化. 2002. (2). 38-40.
[25]王俊松.房地产投资风险概述[J].经济与管理. 2005.19(5).51-53.
[26]周鲜华,周立颖.房地产投资的风险及其防范[J].哈尔滨建筑大学学报[J]. 1998. (5)
[27]刘美玲,董芹芹.房地产投资中的主要风险及防范[J].武汉理工大学学报. 2005. (1)
[28]钱李亮.我国现行土地供应制度的风险研究[J].城市管理与科技. 2006. (1)
[29]张小芳.房地产项目风险影响因素分析[J].山西建筑. 2007. (1).
[30]王鹏,吕超.房地产投资风险的识别与控制[J].城市开发.2001. (4). 38-39.
[31]李宁远,翁彩红,刘洪.房地产开发风险管理[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版). 2004.21(2).104-106.
[32]娄国豪.谈两岸房地产市场投资风险异同[J].商业时代.2007. (13)
[33]粟国敏.房地产项目投资风险评价研究[J].工业技术经济. 2003. (6). 78-81.
[34]刘波.房地产项目投资风险与实例分析[D],武汉:华中科技大学,2006
[35]李涛.房地产开发投资风险因素分析及评价研究[D],北京:中国农业大学,2004
[36]刘强.企业房地产项目投资风险管理研究[D],江苏大学,2006.12
[37]朱晓鸥.房地产投资项目的风险分析[D],天津大学,2005.6
[38]王炜敏.房地产投资的风险评价方法研究[D],内蒙古工业大学,2007.5
[39]章程.房地产项目投资风险决策[D],浙江大学,2003.2
[40]邵超群.房地产投资风险分析与综合评价[D],中南大学,2008.11
[41]李莉华,张亮,王晓敏,王亮.基于AHP模糊综合评判对国外资金投资房地产的风险分析[J].华北水利水电学院学报.2007. (3).
[42]章连根.房地产市场风险分析方法研究[J].中国水运(学术版).2007. (8).
[43]陈琳,潘蜀健.房地产开发项目投资风险度量研究[J].广州大学学报(自然科学版).2003.
[44]乔婉凤,张声东.基于蒙特卡罗方法的房地产投资风险分析研究[J]武汉理工大学学报.2004,26(7)
[45]王丽梅.房地产投资风险分析方法的比较研究[J].经济研究导刊.2007. (1).
[46]刘瑶,钟金如.房地产投资风险的仿真评估[J].华东交通大学学报2005,5
[47]张建坤,张蹼.房地产投资项目融资风险的灰色模糊评判研究.建筑管理现化.2004.(4).
[48]冯套柱,孟亚宁.房地产投资风险评价研究[J].沈阳理工大学学报[J],2005(3)
[49]鲍学英,柏琼.SWOT技术在房地产投资风险管理中的应用研究[J].兰州交通大学报,2008:35-37
[50]孟强.基于层次分析法的房地产项目风险管理[J].商业经济,2008:45-46
[51]杜德权,袁赞良.基于模糊评价的投资风险决策[J].商业研究2003,11
[52]陈晓慧,刘炜.房地产投资风险的模糊评价.武汉理工大学学报.2003.(1).
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