末次盛冰期以来长江江苏段河道演变与现代冲淤分析
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摘要
自然与人为双重影响下的河流变化过程的研究，是当前地球科学研究的一个前沿课题。河道演变与现代河槽冲淤研究，不仅在科学理论方面，而且在生产实践中均有重要意义。
长江作为亚洲季风区最大的河流，对其在末次盛冰期以来古河槽和古流量的研究，将为深入理解末次冰期中亚洲季风区大河流的水文变化特征与过程提供重要依据。
对于长江江苏段末次盛冰期以来古河槽，虽然有一些学者在研究中曾经涉及到，但是由于跨江钻探和勘探少，很难恢复末次盛冰期以来的古河槽形态，也难以获得末次盛冰期的河流相沉积物的样品，对于古河槽的年代，大多都是根据相临地点地层的对比而推测的，缺乏直接的年代数据的支持。本文根据南京长江三桥、长江大桥、长江四桥、润扬长江大桥、扬中长江大桥、江阴长江大桥、苏通长江大桥等的数百个工程钻孔资料及参考文献中的部分钻孔资料，建立了7个河谷沉积层序横断面。对拟建南京长江四桥附近、扬中长江大桥附近的10个钻孔进行了采样分析，获得了18个~(14)C年代数据。通过分析发现：1、南京段末次盛冰期以来存在三个明显的从粗到细的河流沉积韵律，初步确定了几个沉积韵律形成的时代分别为末次盛冰期、晚冰期和全新世以来。确定了南京附近约-60--90m深度的古河槽的年代为末次盛冰期；2、长江古深槽在南京长江大桥、四桥附近局部深切，宽深比向下游逐渐变大；3、镇江段古河谷体现了河流沉积和河口沉积的特征。镇扬以下段末次盛冰期以来沉积旋回，自下而上由河床相、河漫滩相、河口湾-浅海相、三角洲相组成。
研究表明，末次冰期长江干流古河槽在南京附近很清楚。本文根据南京长江三桥、长江大桥附近断面形态及沉积物颗粒级配，选用沙莫夫公式、河海大学公式等，计算了古长江末次盛冰期(18KaBP)、晚冰期(12KaBP)、全新世中期(7-6KaBP)时的泥沙起动流速。根据流量-流速-过水断面之间的关系式，对南京段上述三个时期的流量进行了估算。该研究不仅为深入理解末次冰期中亚洲季风区大河流的水文变化过程提供重要依据，而且还为末次盛冰期时长江是入海河流提供重要依据。
长江下游干流河床近几十年来的冲淤变化和调整，已经成为国内近期的一个研究热点。但是，长江干流江苏段近几十年河道冲淤演变的研究，由于受水文测站布点的限制及研究技术和方法的制约，往往只局限于某个较小的河段，而对于整个江苏段跨越四十多年的河道冲淤演变研究很少。本文根据1959、1970、1985、1992、2003年的长江江苏段河道DEM，利用GIS技术，对44年来河槽冲淤变化进行了分析。结果表明：1、长江干流江苏段在1985年前后发生了明显的河道冲淤转换，即由1985年之前的平均淤积状态转变为1985年之后的平均冲刷状态，主要原因是上游来沙量的减少；2、长江江苏段1959-1985年之间河道的淤积过程，存在着由上游向下游推进的“顺流堆积”现象；3、深槽冲淤速率大于浅滩；4、节点附近冲淤变化幅度大，河槽的冲淤首先开始于河槽深部，然后向浅部拓展，冲淤转换浅部与深部相比在时间上稍微滞后。节点附近河槽最深，向上、下游逐渐变浅，表现出节点前相对冲刷，节点后相对淤积等现象。
根据1954-2004年大通水文站输沙量资料，运用最大熵谱估计分析，得出大通站输沙量具有8年左右的内含变化周期。建立了大通站输沙量序列的ARIMA(2，1，1)模型。
The research of river evolution under the influence of nature and human activities is one of the frontier research issues in Earth science. Therefore, accumulating knowledge on channel evolvement and modern river erosion-siltation process is of great importance for not only scientific theory but also production practice.
Yangtze River is the biggest river in Asian Monsoon zone. Study on changes of its paleo-channel and paleo-flux since the LGM will provide crucial evidence for deeply understanding variation of hydrological features and processes of big rivers in this region.
However, some previous programs involved in studying the Yangtze River paleochannel in Jiangsu reach rarely provided samples of fluvial sediments and reconstructed channel pattern during the LGM, primarily because of lacking enough targeted drilling cores and exploration. For age estimation of the paleochannel, most of them are based on the comparison between stratigraphies of nearby locations, thus lacking of supports from direct numerical age determination.
Seven cross-sections of incised-valley depositional sequences were established with references of hundreds of bore datum and documents of Nanjing No.3 Yangtze River Bridge, the Yangtze River Bridge, Nanjing No.4 Yangtze River Bridge, Runyang Yangtze River Bridge, Yangzhong Yangtze River Bridge, JiangyinYangtze River Bridge and Sutong Yangtze River Bridge. Through analysis of 18 age results of ~(14)C from samples of 10 drilling cores near Yangzhong Yangtze River bridge and Nanjing N0.4 Yangtze River Bridge which is operational, it is discovered that: 1. Nanjing Reach of the Yangtze River existed three obvious rhythms of river sedimentation from coarse sand to fine one since the LGM. The preliminary results confirmed that the formation of some sequences of sedimentation was belonged to the LGM, the Late Glacial Epoch and Holocene respectively. It is also indicated that the time range of incised-valley at -60-90m depth near Nanjing is within the period of LGM. 2. The ancient Yangtze River deep channel expressed locally and deeply incised features near Nanjing Yangtze River bridge and Nanjing N0.4 Yangtze River Bridge. The (?)/H gradually increased along downstream. 3. The paleo-incised valley in Zhenjiang Reach of the Yangtze River showed the typical character of river sediments and estuarine deposits. The sedimentary cycle of the Yangtze River channel below Zhenyang reach since the LGM consisted of the riverbed phase, floodplain phase, estuarine/shallow marine phase and deltaic phase, with sequence from bottom to top.
According to the former publications, the mainstream paleochannel of Yangtze River is well studied and clearly constrained. The incipientvelocity of the LGM (18KaBP), the Late Glacial Epoch (12KaBP) and Holocene was calculated with Vc = 4.60d~(1/3)h~(1/6) , Vc = 1.281g(13.15·h/d(95))(?),Vc = 1.49(?), etc., in terms of the river shape, sedimentary grain size and sequences near Nanjing No.3 Yangtze River Bridge and the Yangtze River Bridge section. Moreover, the discharge in Nanjing Reach of the Yangtze River during the three periods has been estimated according to the relationship of discharge, velocity of flow and cross-section. Based on the results of this paper, we provide important evidence not only for further understanding of variation of hydrological features and processes of big rivers in Middle Asia, but also for verifyingthat Yangtze River was a seagoing river during the LGM.
The variation and modulation of siltation in the past decades linking to the mainstream riverbed of Yangtze River lower reaches has recently become a focus of research in related domestic academic circles. Nevertheless, studies in this research field within the range of Jiangsu reach of Yangtze River have been restricted to some shorter reaches basically due to scarce of hydrologic detection station and limited research techniques and methods. For the past more than 40 years, there were little research works carried out on the whole Jiangsu section of Yangtze River. To evaluate the dynamic changes of sedimentation and erosion of the Jiangsu reach of the Yangtze River during the last 44 years, database for five durations of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of underwater topography was designed and established on the basis of the Jiangsu River Relief Map in 1959, 1970, 1985,1992 and 2003, with which the information of the riverbed area and channel-fill volume were directly extracted from the same height of one reach in ArcGIS9 . What the result indicated is listed as follows: 1. the main course of Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province had experienced an obvious switch from sedimentation to erosion around 1985 because of the decreasing amount of sediment yield from the upper Yangtze River. 2. Between 1985 and 2003, the erosion rate of the lower segment was greater than those of the middle and upper segments, demonstrating propulsive phenomena of "down-reach-ward accumulation". 3. The erosion rate of the deep channels was greater than the shallower ones. 4. Around the node, there showed large fluctuation of scour and silting, while the changes in scour and silting in the whole river channel slightly lagged behind than that in the deep channel. The depth of the river channel arrived at its maximum around the node and gradually shallower along upstream and downstream. The river channel displayed some erosion effects above the node while some sedimentation effects below the node.
According to the document of the transported sediment amount of Datong Hydrometric Station from 1954 to 2004 and based on analysis of maximum entropy spectrum estimation, it has been concluded that the transported sediment amount of Datong Hydrometric Station shows a oscillation cycle about 8-year timescale. The model of ARIMA(2,1,1) of which has also been constructed.
长江作为亚洲季风区最大的河流，对其在末次盛冰期以来古河槽和古流量的研究，将为深入理解末次冰期中亚洲季风区大河流的水文变化特征与过程提供重要依据。
对于长江江苏段末次盛冰期以来古河槽，虽然有一些学者在研究中曾经涉及到，但是由于跨江钻探和勘探少，很难恢复末次盛冰期以来的古河槽形态，也难以获得末次盛冰期的河流相沉积物的样品，对于古河槽的年代，大多都是根据相临地点地层的对比而推测的，缺乏直接的年代数据的支持。本文根据南京长江三桥、长江大桥、长江四桥、润扬长江大桥、扬中长江大桥、江阴长江大桥、苏通长江大桥等的数百个工程钻孔资料及参考文献中的部分钻孔资料，建立了7个河谷沉积层序横断面。对拟建南京长江四桥附近、扬中长江大桥附近的10个钻孔进行了采样分析，获得了18个~(14)C年代数据。通过分析发现：1、南京段末次盛冰期以来存在三个明显的从粗到细的河流沉积韵律，初步确定了几个沉积韵律形成的时代分别为末次盛冰期、晚冰期和全新世以来。确定了南京附近约-60--90m深度的古河槽的年代为末次盛冰期；2、长江古深槽在南京长江大桥、四桥附近局部深切，宽深比向下游逐渐变大；3、镇江段古河谷体现了河流沉积和河口沉积的特征。镇扬以下段末次盛冰期以来沉积旋回，自下而上由河床相、河漫滩相、河口湾-浅海相、三角洲相组成。
研究表明，末次冰期长江干流古河槽在南京附近很清楚。本文根据南京长江三桥、长江大桥附近断面形态及沉积物颗粒级配，选用沙莫夫公式、河海大学公式等，计算了古长江末次盛冰期(18KaBP)、晚冰期(12KaBP)、全新世中期(7-6KaBP)时的泥沙起动流速。根据流量-流速-过水断面之间的关系式，对南京段上述三个时期的流量进行了估算。该研究不仅为深入理解末次冰期中亚洲季风区大河流的水文变化过程提供重要依据，而且还为末次盛冰期时长江是入海河流提供重要依据。
长江下游干流河床近几十年来的冲淤变化和调整，已经成为国内近期的一个研究热点。但是，长江干流江苏段近几十年河道冲淤演变的研究，由于受水文测站布点的限制及研究技术和方法的制约，往往只局限于某个较小的河段，而对于整个江苏段跨越四十多年的河道冲淤演变研究很少。本文根据1959、1970、1985、1992、2003年的长江江苏段河道DEM，利用GIS技术，对44年来河槽冲淤变化进行了分析。结果表明：1、长江干流江苏段在1985年前后发生了明显的河道冲淤转换，即由1985年之前的平均淤积状态转变为1985年之后的平均冲刷状态，主要原因是上游来沙量的减少；2、长江江苏段1959-1985年之间河道的淤积过程，存在着由上游向下游推进的“顺流堆积”现象；3、深槽冲淤速率大于浅滩；4、节点附近冲淤变化幅度大，河槽的冲淤首先开始于河槽深部，然后向浅部拓展，冲淤转换浅部与深部相比在时间上稍微滞后。节点附近河槽最深，向上、下游逐渐变浅，表现出节点前相对冲刷，节点后相对淤积等现象。
根据1954-2004年大通水文站输沙量资料，运用最大熵谱估计分析，得出大通站输沙量具有8年左右的内含变化周期。建立了大通站输沙量序列的ARIMA(2，1，1)模型。
The research of river evolution under the influence of nature and human activities is one of the frontier research issues in Earth science. Therefore, accumulating knowledge on channel evolvement and modern river erosion-siltation process is of great importance for not only scientific theory but also production practice.
Yangtze River is the biggest river in Asian Monsoon zone. Study on changes of its paleo-channel and paleo-flux since the LGM will provide crucial evidence for deeply understanding variation of hydrological features and processes of big rivers in this region.
However, some previous programs involved in studying the Yangtze River paleochannel in Jiangsu reach rarely provided samples of fluvial sediments and reconstructed channel pattern during the LGM, primarily because of lacking enough targeted drilling cores and exploration. For age estimation of the paleochannel, most of them are based on the comparison between stratigraphies of nearby locations, thus lacking of supports from direct numerical age determination.
Seven cross-sections of incised-valley depositional sequences were established with references of hundreds of bore datum and documents of Nanjing No.3 Yangtze River Bridge, the Yangtze River Bridge, Nanjing No.4 Yangtze River Bridge, Runyang Yangtze River Bridge, Yangzhong Yangtze River Bridge, JiangyinYangtze River Bridge and Sutong Yangtze River Bridge. Through analysis of 18 age results of ~(14)C from samples of 10 drilling cores near Yangzhong Yangtze River bridge and Nanjing N0.4 Yangtze River Bridge which is operational, it is discovered that: 1. Nanjing Reach of the Yangtze River existed three obvious rhythms of river sedimentation from coarse sand to fine one since the LGM. The preliminary results confirmed that the formation of some sequences of sedimentation was belonged to the LGM, the Late Glacial Epoch and Holocene respectively. It is also indicated that the time range of incised-valley at -60-90m depth near Nanjing is within the period of LGM. 2. The ancient Yangtze River deep channel expressed locally and deeply incised features near Nanjing Yangtze River bridge and Nanjing N0.4 Yangtze River Bridge. The (?)/H gradually increased along downstream. 3. The paleo-incised valley in Zhenjiang Reach of the Yangtze River showed the typical character of river sediments and estuarine deposits. The sedimentary cycle of the Yangtze River channel below Zhenyang reach since the LGM consisted of the riverbed phase, floodplain phase, estuarine/shallow marine phase and deltaic phase, with sequence from bottom to top.
According to the former publications, the mainstream paleochannel of Yangtze River is well studied and clearly constrained. The incipientvelocity of the LGM (18KaBP), the Late Glacial Epoch (12KaBP) and Holocene was calculated with Vc = 4.60d~(1/3)h~(1/6) , Vc = 1.281g(13.15·h/d(95))(?),Vc = 1.49(?), etc., in terms of the river shape, sedimentary grain size and sequences near Nanjing No.3 Yangtze River Bridge and the Yangtze River Bridge section. Moreover, the discharge in Nanjing Reach of the Yangtze River during the three periods has been estimated according to the relationship of discharge, velocity of flow and cross-section. Based on the results of this paper, we provide important evidence not only for further understanding of variation of hydrological features and processes of big rivers in Middle Asia, but also for verifyingthat Yangtze River was a seagoing river during the LGM.
The variation and modulation of siltation in the past decades linking to the mainstream riverbed of Yangtze River lower reaches has recently become a focus of research in related domestic academic circles. Nevertheless, studies in this research field within the range of Jiangsu reach of Yangtze River have been restricted to some shorter reaches basically due to scarce of hydrologic detection station and limited research techniques and methods. For the past more than 40 years, there were little research works carried out on the whole Jiangsu section of Yangtze River. To evaluate the dynamic changes of sedimentation and erosion of the Jiangsu reach of the Yangtze River during the last 44 years, database for five durations of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of underwater topography was designed and established on the basis of the Jiangsu River Relief Map in 1959, 1970, 1985,1992 and 2003, with which the information of the riverbed area and channel-fill volume were directly extracted from the same height of one reach in ArcGIS9 . What the result indicated is listed as follows: 1. the main course of Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province had experienced an obvious switch from sedimentation to erosion around 1985 because of the decreasing amount of sediment yield from the upper Yangtze River. 2. Between 1985 and 2003, the erosion rate of the lower segment was greater than those of the middle and upper segments, demonstrating propulsive phenomena of "down-reach-ward accumulation". 3. The erosion rate of the deep channels was greater than the shallower ones. 4. Around the node, there showed large fluctuation of scour and silting, while the changes in scour and silting in the whole river channel slightly lagged behind than that in the deep channel. The depth of the river channel arrived at its maximum around the node and gradually shallower along upstream and downstream. The river channel displayed some erosion effects above the node while some sedimentation effects below the node.
According to the document of the transported sediment amount of Datong Hydrometric Station from 1954 to 2004 and based on analysis of maximum entropy spectrum estimation, it has been concluded that the transported sediment amount of Datong Hydrometric Station shows a oscillation cycle about 8-year timescale. The model of ARIMA(2,1,1) of which has also been constructed.
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