放松管制后的航空运输业竞争行为研究
摘要
航空运输业是一个具有公共事业性质的生产服务性产业，同时它又具有高科技、高投入、高风险的特点。在1978年以前，由于担心交通运输业的过度竞争，政府对航空公司在市场准入、服务标准、航线及价格等方面都实行严格管制。1978年以后，美国实行放松管制政策，解除了政府在航空公司市场准入、经营方法和竞争手段等诸多方面的限制，引发了航空运输业的一场深刻革命，产生了许多前所未闻的新经营思想和竞争手段。
放松管制政策的理论依据是完全竞争理论和可竞争市场理论。但随后的研究发现，完全竞争理论和可竞争市场理论与放松管制后航空公司的竞争行为表现的并不一致。老牌的航空公司广泛采用的经营管理方法和竞争手段，如大规模的行业内兼并、枢纽辐射航线系统、收益管理系统、常旅客计划、代码共享以及对中小航空公司的掠夺等形成了自身的竞争优势，并对航空运输业的竞争产生了阻碍。
本文试图应用交易费用理论和委托—代理理论，并结合航空运输业自身的特点，从放松管制后老牌航空公司针对行业新的进入者的威胁所采取的竞争行为这一视角，通过对信息成本、竞争对手对公开行为的反应、委托—代理关系、资产专用性和交易成本的考察，来解释航空运输业竞争行为的内涵，并揭示出对航空运输产业的影响。
本文共分10章。第1章论述了航空运输业的管制变迁。第2章和第3章对管制和放松管制的相关理论予以综述。第4章，笔者应用交易费用理论和委托—代理理论，并结合航空运输业自身的特点，构建了本文的分析框架。
第5章至第9章根据第4章提出的分析框架，详细论述航空运输业的竞争行为，解释其竞争行为的内涵，分析在位老牌航空公司通过竞争行为如何确立了竞争优势，并构成了对竞争的阻碍。其中，第5章论述航空运输业的行业内兼并，认为兼并是由于信息成本、委托一代理效应、航空运输生产的不可分割性、和出于提高竞争对手成本的目的以及对挤压行为的反应；第6章是关于纵向网络一体化，包括代码共享和利用计算机订座统对代理人的监督；第7章对枢纽辐射航线系统作了理论分析，指出枢纽辐射航线体系是利用了规模和范围经济、委托—代理关系和生产的不可分割性，同时也构成了对竞争的阻碍；第8章讨论了航空运输市场的多等级票价结构及常旅客计划，并建立了常旅客选择模型；第9章讨论航空运输业的挤压行为，指出新入业者生存的困境。
结论部分即第10章，在前9章的基础上给出本文分析研究得出的主要结论和中国航空运输业放松管制的政策建议。
The Airlines industry is a production and serving industry which is characteristic of public services as well as high-tech, high-investment and high-risk. Before 1978, the government regulated the airline's entry, the services criterion, lines and prices strictly, because of worrying about the competitions would destroy this carrying trade. But after 1978, the deregulation has prevailed in the United States, the government has relieved the restrictions on market-entry, management and competition. This tendency led to a revolution in the airlines industry, and some new management theories and competition instruments unknown before have come out.
The theory of deregulation is based on the theory of perfect competition and the theory of competitive market. But the later researches found that the theory of competitive market is not consistent with the behaviors of airlines' competition after deregulation. The management methods and competition instruments which are adopted by most old airlines, such as the Hub-Spoke system, revenue management system, frequent travelers programs, code-sharing and the predatory competitions to small airlines, have become the advantages of old companies, and have prevented the competitions from the airlines industry.
Now, this thesis attempts to use the theory of principal-agent and the theory of transaction cost, as well as through observing the cost to information, the reaction to rivals' public competitions, principal-agent relations, transaction-specific assets and the cost to transaction, to interpret the competitions of airlines industry from the view of competitive activities that carried out by old companies to face the threats from new entrants.
This thesis involves109 Articles. Art. 1 discusses the changes of the history about the regulations of airlines industry. Art. 2 and Art.3 summarizes the theory of regulation and deregulation. In Art. 4, the author tries to use the theory of transaction cost and the theory of principal-agent to explain the behaviors of airlines industry after deregulation, and set forth the viewpoint of this thesis.
The Art.54 to Art. 9 describe the airlines competition according to the viewpoint set forth before. Art. 5 discusses the merge and consolidation of airlines industry, and concludes that the merge and consolidation reflect the cost to information, principal-agent, the indivisibility of airlines production, and predatory competition whose purpose is to raise rivals' cost. Art.6 is about vertical network integration, it involves code-sharing and the supervise to agents through CRS. Art.7 analyzes the hub systems, it indicates that the hub systems take advantage of the scale and scope economy, principal-agent relations and the indivisibility of production, at the same time, it restrains the competitions. Art. 8 discusses the several-levels price structure and frequent travelers program in the airlines market, also designs a model of frequent travelers' choice. Art.9 refers to the predatory competition.
The last part - Art. 10, puts forward the conclusion of this thesis and tries to give some suggestions to the deregulation policy of Chinese airlines industry.
放松管制政策的理论依据是完全竞争理论和可竞争市场理论。但随后的研究发现，完全竞争理论和可竞争市场理论与放松管制后航空公司的竞争行为表现的并不一致。老牌的航空公司广泛采用的经营管理方法和竞争手段，如大规模的行业内兼并、枢纽辐射航线系统、收益管理系统、常旅客计划、代码共享以及对中小航空公司的掠夺等形成了自身的竞争优势，并对航空运输业的竞争产生了阻碍。
本文试图应用交易费用理论和委托—代理理论，并结合航空运输业自身的特点，从放松管制后老牌航空公司针对行业新的进入者的威胁所采取的竞争行为这一视角，通过对信息成本、竞争对手对公开行为的反应、委托—代理关系、资产专用性和交易成本的考察，来解释航空运输业竞争行为的内涵，并揭示出对航空运输产业的影响。
本文共分10章。第1章论述了航空运输业的管制变迁。第2章和第3章对管制和放松管制的相关理论予以综述。第4章，笔者应用交易费用理论和委托—代理理论，并结合航空运输业自身的特点，构建了本文的分析框架。
第5章至第9章根据第4章提出的分析框架，详细论述航空运输业的竞争行为，解释其竞争行为的内涵，分析在位老牌航空公司通过竞争行为如何确立了竞争优势，并构成了对竞争的阻碍。其中，第5章论述航空运输业的行业内兼并，认为兼并是由于信息成本、委托一代理效应、航空运输生产的不可分割性、和出于提高竞争对手成本的目的以及对挤压行为的反应；第6章是关于纵向网络一体化，包括代码共享和利用计算机订座统对代理人的监督；第7章对枢纽辐射航线系统作了理论分析，指出枢纽辐射航线体系是利用了规模和范围经济、委托—代理关系和生产的不可分割性，同时也构成了对竞争的阻碍；第8章讨论了航空运输市场的多等级票价结构及常旅客计划，并建立了常旅客选择模型；第9章讨论航空运输业的挤压行为，指出新入业者生存的困境。
结论部分即第10章，在前9章的基础上给出本文分析研究得出的主要结论和中国航空运输业放松管制的政策建议。
The Airlines industry is a production and serving industry which is characteristic of public services as well as high-tech, high-investment and high-risk. Before 1978, the government regulated the airline's entry, the services criterion, lines and prices strictly, because of worrying about the competitions would destroy this carrying trade. But after 1978, the deregulation has prevailed in the United States, the government has relieved the restrictions on market-entry, management and competition. This tendency led to a revolution in the airlines industry, and some new management theories and competition instruments unknown before have come out.
The theory of deregulation is based on the theory of perfect competition and the theory of competitive market. But the later researches found that the theory of competitive market is not consistent with the behaviors of airlines' competition after deregulation. The management methods and competition instruments which are adopted by most old airlines, such as the Hub-Spoke system, revenue management system, frequent travelers programs, code-sharing and the predatory competitions to small airlines, have become the advantages of old companies, and have prevented the competitions from the airlines industry.
Now, this thesis attempts to use the theory of principal-agent and the theory of transaction cost, as well as through observing the cost to information, the reaction to rivals' public competitions, principal-agent relations, transaction-specific assets and the cost to transaction, to interpret the competitions of airlines industry from the view of competitive activities that carried out by old companies to face the threats from new entrants.
This thesis involves109 Articles. Art. 1 discusses the changes of the history about the regulations of airlines industry. Art. 2 and Art.3 summarizes the theory of regulation and deregulation. In Art. 4, the author tries to use the theory of transaction cost and the theory of principal-agent to explain the behaviors of airlines industry after deregulation, and set forth the viewpoint of this thesis.
The Art.54 to Art. 9 describe the airlines competition according to the viewpoint set forth before. Art. 5 discusses the merge and consolidation of airlines industry, and concludes that the merge and consolidation reflect the cost to information, principal-agent, the indivisibility of airlines production, and predatory competition whose purpose is to raise rivals' cost. Art.6 is about vertical network integration, it involves code-sharing and the supervise to agents through CRS. Art.7 analyzes the hub systems, it indicates that the hub systems take advantage of the scale and scope economy, principal-agent relations and the indivisibility of production, at the same time, it restrains the competitions. Art. 8 discusses the several-levels price structure and frequent travelers program in the airlines market, also designs a model of frequent travelers' choice. Art.9 refers to the predatory competition.
The last part - Art. 10, puts forward the conclusion of this thesis and tries to give some suggestions to the deregulation policy of Chinese airlines industry.
引文
1 姚峻主编：《中国航空史》大象出版社1998年版，第499页。
2 轩余恩，中国民航运输市场发展与创新，中国民航出版社2003年第67页。
3 Elizabeth E. Bailey, David R. Graham, Daneil P. Kaplan, Deregulating the Airlines, The MIT Press, Cambridge. (1985).
4 迈克尔·波特著，陈小悦译，竞争战略，华夏出版社1997年第3页。
5 S.Richmond, Regulation and Competition in Air Transportation (1961).
6 Keeler, Domestic Trunk Airline Regulation: An Economic Evaluation, in Sen. Comm. On Govt. Affairs, 95th Cong., 2nd Sess., Study on Fed. Regulation, App.to VOl. Ⅵ (1978). R.Caves, Air Transport And Its Regulators: An Industry Study(1962); Keeler, Airline Regulation and Market Performance, 3 Bell J. Econ.& Mgrnt.Set.399(1972).
7 E.Baily, D.Graham and D.Kaplan, Deregulating the Airlines (1985); S.Morrison and C.Winston, The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation(1986); Call and Keeler, Airline Deregulation, Fares,and Maeket Behavior,(1985).
8 Call and Keeler, Airline Deregulation, Fares,and Maeket Behavior,(1985)., Schwartz, The Nature and Scope of Contestability Theory, in Strategic Behavior and Industrial Competition,(1986).
9 E. Bailey and J. Williams, Sources of Rent in The Deregulated Airline Industry (1987).
10 迈克尔·波特著，陈小悦译，竞争战略，华夏出版社1997年第33页。
1 小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第150页。
2 Richard H.K. Vietor, Contrived Competition: Airline Regulatipn and Deregulation, 1925-1988, Business History Review 64(Spring 1990), pp. 68-74.
3 耿书香主编：《航空公司运营管理方略》中国民航出版社 2000年 第323页。
4 同上，第324页。
5 [美]乔治·斯蒂格勒：《产业组织和政府管制》，上海人民出版社、上海三联书店1996年版，第119页。
6 Daneil P. Kaplan, The Changing Airline Industry, Regulatory Reform: What Actually Happened, (1986)p.44.
7 Alfred E. Kahn, Deregulation: Looking Backward and Looking Forward, Yale Journal on Regulation 7(Summer 1990).p.344.
8 Steven A.Morrison and Clifford Winston, The dynamics of Airline Pricing and Competition, American Economic Review 80(May 1990), pp. 389-390.
9 轩余恩：《中国民航运输市场发展与创新》，中国民航出版社2003年第67页。
1 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第30页。
2 Alfred E. Kahn, The Economic of Regulation on Principles and Institutions, Vol. 1 1988.
3 轩余恩：《中国民航运输市场发展与创新》中国民航出版社 2003年 第2页。
4 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第32页。
5 同上，第32页．
6 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第15页。
7 同上，第147页。
8 乔治·斯蒂格勒：《产业组织和政府管制》上海人民出版社 上海三联书店 1996年 第210页。
9 Thomas S. Ulen, "The Market for Regulation: The ICC from 1887 to 1920," American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 70 (May 1980), p.310.
10 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯，管制和反垄断经济学 上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第135页。
11 Alfred E. Kahn, The Economics of Regulation:Principles and Institutions, Vol. Ⅱ (Cambridge,MA: MIT Press,1988), p.1.
12 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第136页。
13 Alfred E. Kahn, The Economics of Regulation:Principles and Institutions, VoL Ⅱ (Cambridge,MA: MIT Press,1988),p178-193.
1 R.Caves, Air Transport and Its Regulations: An Industry Study (1962); Keeler, Airline Regulation and Market Performance(1972).
2 R.Caves, Air Transport and Its Regulations: An Industry Study (1962).
3 M.Strasheim, The International Airline Industry 90-101(1969).
4 W.Jordan,Airlian Regulation In America: Effects and Impereffections(1970)
5 E.Baily, D.Graham and D.Kaplan, Deregulating the Airlines (1985); S.Morrison and C.Winston, The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation(1986); Call and Keeler, Airline Deregulation, Fares,and Maeket Behavior,(1985).
6 Elizabeth Bailey, David Graham & David Kaplan, Deregulation theAielines(1985)
7 Spence, Contestable Markets and the Theory Structure: A Review Article, 21 J Econ L27. 981,987(1983).
8 Call and Keeler, Airline Deregulation, Fares,and Maeket Behavior,(1985)., Schwartz, The Nature and Scope of Contestability Theory, in Strategic Behavior and Industrial Competition,(1986).
9 E. Bailey and J. Williams, Sources of Rent in The Deregulated Airline Industry (1987).
10 Elizabeth Bailey, David Graham & David Kaplan, Deregulation the Aielines(1985),pp.91-110.
11 [美]路易斯·普特曼等编：《企业的经济性质》，上海财经大学出版社2000年，第二季度9页。
12 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第33页
13 马涛：《经济思想史教程》，复旦大学出版社2002年版，第465页。
14 [美]迈克尔·迪屈奇：《交易成本经济学》，经济科学出版社1999年版，第5页。
15 [美]威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》，经济科学出版社1999年版，第208页。
16 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第71页。
17 [美]威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》，经济科学出版社1999年版，第92页。
18 同上，第209页。
19 同上，第205页。
20 马涛：《经济思想史教程》，复旦大学出版社2002年版，第465页。
21 同上，第466页。
1 R. Caves, Air Transport and Its Regulations: An Industry Study, pp56-61(1962)
2 Kahn, Alfred E. The Competitive Consequences of Hub Dominance: A Case Study, Review of Industrial Organization 8(August 1993): 381-406
3 G. Eads, The Local Service Airline Experiment, pp.31-74 (1972).
4 DOT Opens Computer Reservations System Investigation, Aviation Daily, Feb 3,1987,at 1.
5 Elizabeth Bailey, David Graham & David Kaplan, Deregulation the Airlines(1985)
6 F. Scherer, Industrial Market Structure and Economic Performance, 14-15 (1980).
7 Levine, Is Regulation Necessary? California Air Transportation and National Regulatory Policy, Yale LJ.1416(1965)
8 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第47-52页。
9 同上，第225—265页。
10 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第407页。[美]乔治·斯蒂格勒：《产业组织和政府管制》，上海人民出版社、上海三联书店1996年版，第74—96页。
1 Morrison and Winston. The Evolution of the Airline Industry, (Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution, 1995) p.8.
2 Edward H. Chamberlin, The Theory of Monopolistic Competition (Cambridge, MA.: Harvard University Press, 1933) p.47.
3 [美]乔治·斯蒂格勒：《产业组织和政府管制》，上海人民出版社、上海三联书店1996年版，第119页。
4 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社2003年 第257页。
5 同上。
6 [美]威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》经济科学出版社1999年版，第26页。
7 同上，第27页。
8 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第47—52页。
9 周耀东，2000，“市场竞争与政府管制——中国产业组织理论问题的综述”，《上海经济研究》第11期。
1 [美]威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》经济科学出版社1999年版，第28页。
2 同上，第55页。
3 同上，第55页。
4 耿书香主编：《航空公司运营管理方略》中国民航出版社2000年版，第253页。
5 同上，第155页。
6 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第47—52页。
7 耿书香主编：《航空公司运营管理方略》中国民航出版社2000年版，第263页。
7 CAB Investigation into the Competition Marketing of Air Transportation. Order 82. 12-85.
7 49 Fed Reg 32,540(1984)(codified at C.F.R.255(1986))
1 Morrison and Winston, The Evolution of the Airline Industry, The Booking Institution, Washiton, D. C. 1995, p.28.
2 Bailey and Maumol, "Deregulation and the Theory of Contestable Markets," Yale Journal on Regulation, 1(1984) pp.111-137.
3 《上海航空枢纽建设规划》(内部资料)
4 《中国东方航空股份有限公司生产经营分析报告》(内部资料)
1 耿书香主编，《航空公司运营管理方略》中国民航出版社2000年版，第192页。
2 Bailey, Graham and Kaplan. Deregulating the Airlines,(Cambridge: MIT Press, 1985),p.47. Frank, When are Price Differentials Discriminatory? 2 J.Poly Analysis & Mgmt.(1983),p.240.
3 Call and Kell, Air Deregulation, Fares, and Market Behavior, in Analytic Studies in Transportation Economics 221 (A Daughety ed. 1985),p.245.
4 Schwartz, The nature and Scope of Contestability Theory, in Strategic Behavior and Industrial Competition (1986),pp.13-15.
5 Spence, Contestable Markets and the Theory of Industry Structure: A Review Article, 21 J. Econ. (1983).
6 Levine, Airline Competition in Deregulated Markets, pp.393-494.
7 此模型基于Morrison和Winston的航空公司选择模型，并加以扩展。
1 Avinish Dixit, A Modle of Duopoly Suggesting a Theory of Entry Barriers, Bell Journal of Economics 10 (Spring 1979), pp.20-30.
2 John S. Mcgee, Industrial Organization (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1988), p.200.
3 威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》经济科学出版社1999年版，第419页。
4 McGee, Predatory Price Cutting: The Standard Oil(NJ.)Case, 1 J. L. & Econ. 137(1958).
5 上文已论述过，公众对价格信息是极为敏感的，因此其传播快速且信息成本低。
1 S. Morrison & C.Winston, The Economic Effects Of Airline Deregulation (1986)
2 Carrier-Owned Reservation Systems, 14 C.F.R. 255,256 (1986)
3 Renton & Gaudin, Reserving Judgment, Airline Business, Mar. 1987,at 18,19
4 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第47—52页。
1. Alfred E. Kahn, The Economics of Regulation: Principles and Institutions, Vol. II (Cambridge, MA.: MIT Press, 1988).
2. Alfred E. Kahn, "Deregulation : Looking Backward and Looking Forward, " Yale Journal on Regulation 7(summer 1990).
3. Bailey, Elizabeth E., and William J. Baumol. "Deregulation and the Theory of Contestable Markets," Yale Journal on Regulation 1(1984).
4. Bailey, Elizabeth E., David R. Graham, and Daniel P. Kaplan. Deregulating the Airlines, (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1985).
5. Baumol, W. J. (1996) "Predation and the Logic of the Average Variable Cost Test, " Journal of Law & Economics, Vol. 39, April.
6. Bolton, Patrick & David Scharfstein "A Theory of Predation Based on Agency Problems inFinancial Contracting, " American Economic Review, " Vol. 80(1990).
7. Bolton, Patrick, J. F. Brodley & M. H. Riordan "Predatory Pricing: Strategic Theory and Legal Policy, " Georgetown Law Journal, Vol. 88(8), (2000) .
8. Borenstein, Severin. "Hubs and High Fares: Dominance and Market Power in the U. S. Airline Industry, " RAND Journal of Economics 20 (Autumn 1989).
9. Boyd, Michael "New-Entrant Airlines — Time for Reality, " Aviation Trends and Issues, (June 29 , 1998).
10. Brock, James W. "Industry Update : Airlines," Review of industrial Organization 16( February 2000).
11. Caves, Richard E., Air Transport and Its Regulators : An Industry Study, (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1962).
12. Daniel P. Kaplan, "The Changing Airline Industry" , Regulatory Reform : What Actually Happened , ed. Leonard W. Weiss and Michael W.Klass (Boston : Little , Brown , 1986).
13.Douglas, George and James Miller. Economic Regulation of Domestic Air Transport : Theory and Policy , (Washington, D. C. : Brookings Institution, 1974).
14. Dresner, Martin, Jun-Sheng Chris Lin,, & Robert Windle "The Impact of Low-Cost Carriers on Airport and Route Competition, " Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. (30, September, 1996).
15. Dresner, Martin & R. Windle "Resource Availability and New Entry in the U.S. Airline Industry" (1990).
16. Elmer E. Smead , Governmental Promotion and Regulation of Business (New York : Appleton-Century-Crofts, 1969).
17. Evans, William N., and Ioannis Kessides, "Structure, Conduct and Performance in the Deregulated Airline Industry, " Southern Economic Journal (January 1993).
18. George C. Eads, "Competition in the Domestic Trunk Airline Industry : Too Much or Too Little?" Promoting Competition in Regulated Markets, ed. Almarin Phillips , (Washington : The Brookings Instituting , 1975).
19. Geroski, P., R. Gilbert and A. Jacquemin Barriers to Entry and Strategic Competition, (Chur Switzerland: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1990).
20. Gillen, D.W., T.H. Oum & M. W. Tretheway "Airline Cost Structure and Policy Implications, " Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 24(2), (May, 1990).
21. Jeanniot, Pierre J. "The Future of the Airline Industry" (Speech to the Economist Global Airlines Conference, London, May 16 2000).
22. Jenkins, Darryl ed. The Handbook of Airline Economics (New York: McGraw Hill 1995).
23. Jenkins, Darryl "Why New Entrant Airlines Fail, " Plane Business, (1998).
24. Jordan, William A. Airline Regulation in America : Effects and Imperfections, (Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press, 1970).
25. Keeler, Theodore E. "Airline Regulation and Market Performance, " Bell Journal of Economics (Autumn 1972).
26. Kleit, Andrew N. "Computer Reservations Systems: Competition Misunderstood," Antitrust Bulletin, Vol. 37, (1992).
27. Levine, Michael E. "Is Regulation Necessary? California Air Transportation and National Regulatory Policy, " Yale Law Journal 74 (July 1965).
28. Meyer, John R., and Clint V. Oster. Deregulation and the Future of Intercity Passenger Travel, (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1987).
29. Milgrom, Paul & John Roberts "Predation, Reputation and Entry Deterrence, " Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 27, (1982).
30. Morrison, Steven A. & Clifford Winston The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution 1986).
31. Morrison, Steven A., and Clifford Winston. "Enhancing the Performance of the Deregulated Air Transportation System," Brooking Papers: Microeconomics 1989, (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1989).
32. Steven A. Morrison and Clifford Winston, "The Dynamics of Airline Pricing and Competition," American Economic Review 80(May 1990).
33. Morrison, Steven A. & Clifford Winston (1995) The Evolution of the Airline Industry (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution).
34. Morrison, Steven A. "Airline Service: The Evolution of Competition Since Deregulation. " In Industry Studies, 2d ed., edited by Larry L. Deutsch. (Armonk, NY: K E. Sharpe, 1998).
35. Peele, Robert W. & Viggi Butler "Airline Deregulation: The Unfinished Revolution," Regulation, Vol. 22(1), (1999).
36. Richard H.K. Victor, "Contrived Competition: Airline Regulation and Deregulation, 1925-1988," Business History Review 64 (Spring 1990).
37. Robson, John E. "Airline Deregulation: Twenty Years of Success and Counting," Regulation, Spring, (1998).
38. Saunders, Lisa M., and William G. Shepherd, "Airlines: Setting Constraints on Hub Dominance," Logistics and Transportation Review (September 1993).
39. Suman, Mark "A Different Perspective on Why New Airlines Fail: A Close Look at Southwest Airlines," Plane Business, (1998).
40. Thomas S. Ulen, "The Marker for Regulation: The ICC from 1887 to 1920," American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 70(May 1980).
41. Tretheway, M.W. "Airport Ownership, Management and Price Regulation" (Study for the CTA Review Panel, Draft of March 14, 2001).
42. Werden, Gregory J. "The Effects of Mergers on Price and Output Two Case Studies from the Airline Industry," Management & Decision Economics, Vol. 12. (1991)
43. Zerbe, R.O. Jr. & M.T. Mumford "Does Predatory Pricing Exist? Economic Theory and the Courts After Brooke Group, " Antitrust Bulletin, Yol. 14. (1996).
44．小贾尔斯·伯吉斯《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年。
45．苏东水主编《产业经济学》高等教育出版社 2000年。
46．王方华 吕巍主编《企业战略管理》复旦大学出版社 1997年。
47．马淘编著《经济思想史教程》复旦大学出版社 2002年。
48．卢现祥著《西方新制度经济学》中国发展出版社 2003年。
49．[美]迈克尔·波特 著，陈小悦译《竞争战略》华夏出版社 1996年。
50．[美]刘易斯·卡布罗 著《产业组织导论》人民邮电出版社 2002年。
51．[德]埃瑞克·G．菲吕博顿 鲁道夫著 孙经纬译《新制度经济学》上海财经大学出版社 1998年。
52．[美]路易斯·普特曼 兰德尔·克罗茨纳著 孙经纬译《企业的经济性质》上海财经大学出版社 2000年。
53．[美]R．科斯 A．阿尔钦 D．诺斯 等著：《财产权利与制度变迁——产权学派与新制度学派论文集》上海三联书店 上海人民出版社 1994年。
54．[美]科斯 诺斯 威廉姆森 等著[法]克劳德·梅纳尔编《制度、契约与组织——从新制度经济学角度的透视》经济科学出版社 2003年。
55．[美]奥利弗·威廉姆森 著《资本主义经济制度——论企业签约与市场签约》商务印书馆 2002年。
56．[美]奥利弗·威廉姆森 著《反托拉斯经济学——兼并、协约和策略行为》经济出版社 1999年。
57．[美]库尔特·勒布 托马斯·盖尔·穆尔 编《施蒂格勒论文精粹》商务印书馆。
58．[美]施蒂格勒 著《产业组织和政府管制》上海人民出版社 上海三联书店 1996年。
59．[美]沃尔特·亚当斯 詹姆斯·布罗克 主编《美国产业结构》中国人民大学出版社 2003年。
60．姚峻主编《中国航空史》大象出版社 1998年。
61．孟昭蓉、李梅、杨春生 著《世界著名航空公司经营之道》中国民航出版社 1998年。
62．于伟加 著《国研分析：破解民航运输产业改革难题》国务院发展研究中心网页 1999年。
63．耿书香 主编《航空公司运营管理方略》中国民航出版社 2000年。
64．刘功仕《航空运输与市场化改革》航空工业出版社1998年。
65．轩余恩《中国民航运输市场发展与创新》，中国民航出版社2003年。
66．庞建京 主编《危机—中国民航如何面对新世纪》中国民航出版社2000年。
67．中国民航总局编《从统计看民航》中国民航出版社1998年、1999年、2000年、2001年、2002年、2003年、2004年。
68．中国民航总局《中国民用航空》1998年—2004年各期。
69．中国民航干部学院《民航管理》1998年—2004年各期。
70．国际航空1998年—2004年各期。
71．国外民航文摘1998年—2004年各期。
2 轩余恩，中国民航运输市场发展与创新，中国民航出版社2003年第67页。
3 Elizabeth E. Bailey, David R. Graham, Daneil P. Kaplan, Deregulating the Airlines, The MIT Press, Cambridge. (1985).
4 迈克尔·波特著，陈小悦译，竞争战略，华夏出版社1997年第3页。
5 S.Richmond, Regulation and Competition in Air Transportation (1961).
6 Keeler, Domestic Trunk Airline Regulation: An Economic Evaluation, in Sen. Comm. On Govt. Affairs, 95th Cong., 2nd Sess., Study on Fed. Regulation, App.to VOl. Ⅵ (1978). R.Caves, Air Transport And Its Regulators: An Industry Study(1962); Keeler, Airline Regulation and Market Performance, 3 Bell J. Econ.& Mgrnt.Set.399(1972).
7 E.Baily, D.Graham and D.Kaplan, Deregulating the Airlines (1985); S.Morrison and C.Winston, The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation(1986); Call and Keeler, Airline Deregulation, Fares,and Maeket Behavior,(1985).
8 Call and Keeler, Airline Deregulation, Fares,and Maeket Behavior,(1985)., Schwartz, The Nature and Scope of Contestability Theory, in Strategic Behavior and Industrial Competition,(1986).
9 E. Bailey and J. Williams, Sources of Rent in The Deregulated Airline Industry (1987).
10 迈克尔·波特著，陈小悦译，竞争战略，华夏出版社1997年第33页。
1 小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第150页。
2 Richard H.K. Vietor, Contrived Competition: Airline Regulatipn and Deregulation, 1925-1988, Business History Review 64(Spring 1990), pp. 68-74.
3 耿书香主编：《航空公司运营管理方略》中国民航出版社 2000年 第323页。
4 同上，第324页。
5 [美]乔治·斯蒂格勒：《产业组织和政府管制》，上海人民出版社、上海三联书店1996年版，第119页。
6 Daneil P. Kaplan, The Changing Airline Industry, Regulatory Reform: What Actually Happened, (1986)p.44.
7 Alfred E. Kahn, Deregulation: Looking Backward and Looking Forward, Yale Journal on Regulation 7(Summer 1990).p.344.
8 Steven A.Morrison and Clifford Winston, The dynamics of Airline Pricing and Competition, American Economic Review 80(May 1990), pp. 389-390.
9 轩余恩：《中国民航运输市场发展与创新》，中国民航出版社2003年第67页。
1 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第30页。
2 Alfred E. Kahn, The Economic of Regulation on Principles and Institutions, Vol. 1 1988.
3 轩余恩：《中国民航运输市场发展与创新》中国民航出版社 2003年 第2页。
4 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第32页。
5 同上，第32页．
6 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第15页。
7 同上，第147页。
8 乔治·斯蒂格勒：《产业组织和政府管制》上海人民出版社 上海三联书店 1996年 第210页。
9 Thomas S. Ulen, "The Market for Regulation: The ICC from 1887 to 1920," American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 70 (May 1980), p.310.
10 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯，管制和反垄断经济学 上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第135页。
11 Alfred E. Kahn, The Economics of Regulation:Principles and Institutions, Vol. Ⅱ (Cambridge,MA: MIT Press,1988), p.1.
12 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年 第136页。
13 Alfred E. Kahn, The Economics of Regulation:Principles and Institutions, VoL Ⅱ (Cambridge,MA: MIT Press,1988),p178-193.
1 R.Caves, Air Transport and Its Regulations: An Industry Study (1962); Keeler, Airline Regulation and Market Performance(1972).
2 R.Caves, Air Transport and Its Regulations: An Industry Study (1962).
3 M.Strasheim, The International Airline Industry 90-101(1969).
4 W.Jordan,Airlian Regulation In America: Effects and Impereffections(1970)
5 E.Baily, D.Graham and D.Kaplan, Deregulating the Airlines (1985); S.Morrison and C.Winston, The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation(1986); Call and Keeler, Airline Deregulation, Fares,and Maeket Behavior,(1985).
6 Elizabeth Bailey, David Graham & David Kaplan, Deregulation theAielines(1985)
7 Spence, Contestable Markets and the Theory Structure: A Review Article, 21 J Econ L27. 981,987(1983).
8 Call and Keeler, Airline Deregulation, Fares,and Maeket Behavior,(1985)., Schwartz, The Nature and Scope of Contestability Theory, in Strategic Behavior and Industrial Competition,(1986).
9 E. Bailey and J. Williams, Sources of Rent in The Deregulated Airline Industry (1987).
10 Elizabeth Bailey, David Graham & David Kaplan, Deregulation the Aielines(1985),pp.91-110.
11 [美]路易斯·普特曼等编：《企业的经济性质》，上海财经大学出版社2000年，第二季度9页。
12 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第33页
13 马涛：《经济思想史教程》，复旦大学出版社2002年版，第465页。
14 [美]迈克尔·迪屈奇：《交易成本经济学》，经济科学出版社1999年版，第5页。
15 [美]威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》，经济科学出版社1999年版，第208页。
16 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第71页。
17 [美]威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》，经济科学出版社1999年版，第92页。
18 同上，第209页。
19 同上，第205页。
20 马涛：《经济思想史教程》，复旦大学出版社2002年版，第465页。
21 同上，第466页。
1 R. Caves, Air Transport and Its Regulations: An Industry Study, pp56-61(1962)
2 Kahn, Alfred E. The Competitive Consequences of Hub Dominance: A Case Study, Review of Industrial Organization 8(August 1993): 381-406
3 G. Eads, The Local Service Airline Experiment, pp.31-74 (1972).
4 DOT Opens Computer Reservations System Investigation, Aviation Daily, Feb 3,1987,at 1.
5 Elizabeth Bailey, David Graham & David Kaplan, Deregulation the Airlines(1985)
6 F. Scherer, Industrial Market Structure and Economic Performance, 14-15 (1980).
7 Levine, Is Regulation Necessary? California Air Transportation and National Regulatory Policy, Yale LJ.1416(1965)
8 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第47-52页。
9 同上，第225—265页。
10 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第407页。[美]乔治·斯蒂格勒：《产业组织和政府管制》，上海人民出版社、上海三联书店1996年版，第74—96页。
1 Morrison and Winston. The Evolution of the Airline Industry, (Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution, 1995) p.8.
2 Edward H. Chamberlin, The Theory of Monopolistic Competition (Cambridge, MA.: Harvard University Press, 1933) p.47.
3 [美]乔治·斯蒂格勒：《产业组织和政府管制》，上海人民出版社、上海三联书店1996年版，第119页。
4 [美]小贾尔斯·伯吉斯：《管制和反垄断经济学》上海财经大学出版社2003年 第257页。
5 同上。
6 [美]威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》经济科学出版社1999年版，第26页。
7 同上，第27页。
8 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第47—52页。
9 周耀东，2000，“市场竞争与政府管制——中国产业组织理论问题的综述”，《上海经济研究》第11期。
1 [美]威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》经济科学出版社1999年版，第28页。
2 同上，第55页。
3 同上，第55页。
4 耿书香主编：《航空公司运营管理方略》中国民航出版社2000年版，第253页。
5 同上，第155页。
6 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第47—52页。
7 耿书香主编：《航空公司运营管理方略》中国民航出版社2000年版，第263页。
7 CAB Investigation into the Competition Marketing of Air Transportation. Order 82. 12-85.
7 49 Fed Reg 32,540(1984)(codified at C.F.R.255(1986))
1 Morrison and Winston, The Evolution of the Airline Industry, The Booking Institution, Washiton, D. C. 1995, p.28.
2 Bailey and Maumol, "Deregulation and the Theory of Contestable Markets," Yale Journal on Regulation, 1(1984) pp.111-137.
3 《上海航空枢纽建设规划》(内部资料)
4 《中国东方航空股份有限公司生产经营分析报告》(内部资料)
1 耿书香主编，《航空公司运营管理方略》中国民航出版社2000年版，第192页。
2 Bailey, Graham and Kaplan. Deregulating the Airlines,(Cambridge: MIT Press, 1985),p.47. Frank, When are Price Differentials Discriminatory? 2 J.Poly Analysis & Mgmt.(1983),p.240.
3 Call and Kell, Air Deregulation, Fares, and Market Behavior, in Analytic Studies in Transportation Economics 221 (A Daughety ed. 1985),p.245.
4 Schwartz, The nature and Scope of Contestability Theory, in Strategic Behavior and Industrial Competition (1986),pp.13-15.
5 Spence, Contestable Markets and the Theory of Industry Structure: A Review Article, 21 J. Econ. (1983).
6 Levine, Airline Competition in Deregulated Markets, pp.393-494.
7 此模型基于Morrison和Winston的航空公司选择模型，并加以扩展。
1 Avinish Dixit, A Modle of Duopoly Suggesting a Theory of Entry Barriers, Bell Journal of Economics 10 (Spring 1979), pp.20-30.
2 John S. Mcgee, Industrial Organization (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1988), p.200.
3 威廉姆森：《反托拉斯经济学》经济科学出版社1999年版，第419页。
4 McGee, Predatory Price Cutting: The Standard Oil(NJ.)Case, 1 J. L. & Econ. 137(1958).
5 上文已论述过，公众对价格信息是极为敏感的，因此其传播快速且信息成本低。
1 S. Morrison & C.Winston, The Economic Effects Of Airline Deregulation (1986)
2 Carrier-Owned Reservation Systems, 14 C.F.R. 255,256 (1986)
3 Renton & Gaudin, Reserving Judgment, Airline Business, Mar. 1987,at 18,19
4 [美]威廉姆森：《资本主义经济制度》，商务印书馆2002年版，第47—52页。
1. Alfred E. Kahn, The Economics of Regulation: Principles and Institutions, Vol. II (Cambridge, MA.: MIT Press, 1988).
2. Alfred E. Kahn, "Deregulation : Looking Backward and Looking Forward, " Yale Journal on Regulation 7(summer 1990).
3. Bailey, Elizabeth E., and William J. Baumol. "Deregulation and the Theory of Contestable Markets," Yale Journal on Regulation 1(1984).
4. Bailey, Elizabeth E., David R. Graham, and Daniel P. Kaplan. Deregulating the Airlines, (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1985).
5. Baumol, W. J. (1996) "Predation and the Logic of the Average Variable Cost Test, " Journal of Law & Economics, Vol. 39, April.
6. Bolton, Patrick & David Scharfstein "A Theory of Predation Based on Agency Problems inFinancial Contracting, " American Economic Review, " Vol. 80(1990).
7. Bolton, Patrick, J. F. Brodley & M. H. Riordan "Predatory Pricing: Strategic Theory and Legal Policy, " Georgetown Law Journal, Vol. 88(8), (2000) .
8. Borenstein, Severin. "Hubs and High Fares: Dominance and Market Power in the U. S. Airline Industry, " RAND Journal of Economics 20 (Autumn 1989).
9. Boyd, Michael "New-Entrant Airlines — Time for Reality, " Aviation Trends and Issues, (June 29 , 1998).
10. Brock, James W. "Industry Update : Airlines," Review of industrial Organization 16( February 2000).
11. Caves, Richard E., Air Transport and Its Regulators : An Industry Study, (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1962).
12. Daniel P. Kaplan, "The Changing Airline Industry" , Regulatory Reform : What Actually Happened , ed. Leonard W. Weiss and Michael W.Klass (Boston : Little , Brown , 1986).
13.Douglas, George and James Miller. Economic Regulation of Domestic Air Transport : Theory and Policy , (Washington, D. C. : Brookings Institution, 1974).
14. Dresner, Martin, Jun-Sheng Chris Lin,, & Robert Windle "The Impact of Low-Cost Carriers on Airport and Route Competition, " Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. (30, September, 1996).
15. Dresner, Martin & R. Windle "Resource Availability and New Entry in the U.S. Airline Industry" (1990).
16. Elmer E. Smead , Governmental Promotion and Regulation of Business (New York : Appleton-Century-Crofts, 1969).
17. Evans, William N., and Ioannis Kessides, "Structure, Conduct and Performance in the Deregulated Airline Industry, " Southern Economic Journal (January 1993).
18. George C. Eads, "Competition in the Domestic Trunk Airline Industry : Too Much or Too Little?" Promoting Competition in Regulated Markets, ed. Almarin Phillips , (Washington : The Brookings Instituting , 1975).
19. Geroski, P., R. Gilbert and A. Jacquemin Barriers to Entry and Strategic Competition, (Chur Switzerland: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1990).
20. Gillen, D.W., T.H. Oum & M. W. Tretheway "Airline Cost Structure and Policy Implications, " Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 24(2), (May, 1990).
21. Jeanniot, Pierre J. "The Future of the Airline Industry" (Speech to the Economist Global Airlines Conference, London, May 16 2000).
22. Jenkins, Darryl ed. The Handbook of Airline Economics (New York: McGraw Hill 1995).
23. Jenkins, Darryl "Why New Entrant Airlines Fail, " Plane Business, (1998).
24. Jordan, William A. Airline Regulation in America : Effects and Imperfections, (Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press, 1970).
25. Keeler, Theodore E. "Airline Regulation and Market Performance, " Bell Journal of Economics (Autumn 1972).
26. Kleit, Andrew N. "Computer Reservations Systems: Competition Misunderstood," Antitrust Bulletin, Vol. 37, (1992).
27. Levine, Michael E. "Is Regulation Necessary? California Air Transportation and National Regulatory Policy, " Yale Law Journal 74 (July 1965).
28. Meyer, John R., and Clint V. Oster. Deregulation and the Future of Intercity Passenger Travel, (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1987).
29. Milgrom, Paul & John Roberts "Predation, Reputation and Entry Deterrence, " Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 27, (1982).
30. Morrison, Steven A. & Clifford Winston The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution 1986).
31. Morrison, Steven A., and Clifford Winston. "Enhancing the Performance of the Deregulated Air Transportation System," Brooking Papers: Microeconomics 1989, (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1989).
32. Steven A. Morrison and Clifford Winston, "The Dynamics of Airline Pricing and Competition," American Economic Review 80(May 1990).
33. Morrison, Steven A. & Clifford Winston (1995) The Evolution of the Airline Industry (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution).
34. Morrison, Steven A. "Airline Service: The Evolution of Competition Since Deregulation. " In Industry Studies, 2d ed., edited by Larry L. Deutsch. (Armonk, NY: K E. Sharpe, 1998).
35. Peele, Robert W. & Viggi Butler "Airline Deregulation: The Unfinished Revolution," Regulation, Vol. 22(1), (1999).
36. Richard H.K. Victor, "Contrived Competition: Airline Regulation and Deregulation, 1925-1988," Business History Review 64 (Spring 1990).
37. Robson, John E. "Airline Deregulation: Twenty Years of Success and Counting," Regulation, Spring, (1998).
38. Saunders, Lisa M., and William G. Shepherd, "Airlines: Setting Constraints on Hub Dominance," Logistics and Transportation Review (September 1993).
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