地震物理过程模型研究
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摘要
地震的孕育、发生及其后续影响是一系列复杂的物理过程。对这些过程进行研究有助于认识地震发生的机制，了解将来可能的地球物理状态。本文从以下几方面对地震物理过程进行研究：
1、地震应力触发研究
目前地震断层相互作用问题已引起地震学家的广泛关注。许多研究表明一条断层的破裂可以影响附近其他断层趋于破裂的进程，两条断层的确切作用取决于它们的相对位置、破裂机制、错动量和介质力学性质。
首先对青藏高原北部东昆仑破裂带大地震之间的应力转移和断层相互作用进行研究。考虑1937年以来沿此破裂带发生的5个M≥7的地震：1937年M7.5花石峡地震，1963年Ms7.1都兰地震，1973年Ms7.3玛尼地震，1997年Mw7.5玛尼地震和2001年Mw7.8可可西里地震。模拟了黏弹性成层介质中地震断层错动产生的应力演化过程，并计算了在后续地震破裂面上产生的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明，前面四个地震均造成2001年可可西里地震断层面上库仑破裂应力的增加，并且中地壳和下地壳的黏弹性松弛效应使得库仑破裂应力场随着时间的推移而逐渐加强。在计算过程中定量估计了可可西里地震发生时前面四个地震同震形变和黏弹性松弛导致可可西里地震破裂面上库仑破裂应力变化之间的比值，发现前三个地震由黏弹性松弛造成的变化远远大于同震形变所造成的变化。可可西里地震之后应力场的模拟表明东昆仑断层中段的东大滩—西大滩断层段(位于可可西里地震破裂以东及都兰地震以西)的库仑破裂应力显著增加，变化值达0.05～0.1MPa，预示这一地区地震危险性的增加。
其次，我们研究自1920年以来青藏高原东北部和华北地区700年米由于长期构造加载及地震断层错动导致的累积库仑破裂应力变化( )的演化过程。长期构造加载场由GPS观测得到的地壳平均应变率场给出。考虑粘弹性成层介质地壳模型，计算长期构造加载和地震形变(同震及震后介质粘弹性驰豫变形)造成的累积应力场变化。将累积应力场变化投影到后续地震断层面和滑动方向上得到，并研究其对后续地震发生的触发作用。结果表明，青藏高原东北部的20个M≥7.0地震中，17个人地震均发生在库仑破裂应力变化为正的区域，触发率达85％；对1303年以来华北地区发生的49个M≥16.5地震研究结果表明：对48个后续地震中的39个有触发作用，触发率达到81.3％。研究表明与发生后续的地震有很好的相关性。当前 显著上升的地区包括渤海及其邻域地区、西秦岭北缘断裂带、张家口—渤海地震带西端和太原盆地，其地震危险性应引起重视。
根据前人研究的唐山地震破裂分布、地壳波速和黏性结构，计算了该地震产生的投影到滦县和宁河余震上的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明，随后发生的滦县地震和宁河地震均发生在前面地震产生的库仑破裂应力为正的区域。为研究唐山地震、滦县地震和宁河地震与后续小震位置之间的相关关系，根据前人对该地区构造应力场和地震破裂分布的研究，假定构造应力量值为10MPa，求得了震源附近各处可能的小震震源机制，将上述三个地震产生的应力变化投影到可能的小震破裂面和滑动方向上，发现唐山地震、滦县地震和宁河地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化的“蝴蝶”花瓣分布与后续小震发生的空间模式有较好的一致性。说明唐山地震序列中前面的大震对后续小震的发生起到了调制作用。
The genesis and occurrence of earthquakes and their subsequent impacts are complex physical processes. Studies of these processes help understand the mechanics of earthquakes and the future physical state of the Earth. The physical processes of earthquakes are studied in the following aspects in this paper:
1. Study on seismic stress triggering
Fault interaction and earthquake occurrence have attracted much attention in seismological community during recent years. Many studies showed that rupture of one fault could encourage or discourage earthquake nucleation on a neighboring fault, depending on the relative geometry of the two faults and the earthquake rupture mechanisms.
Firstly we study stress transfer and triggering of large earthquakes along the East Kunlun fault system, northern Tibetan Plateau. Five M >7 earthquakes occurred along the fault zone during the past 70 years are considered: the 1937 M7.5 Huashi Canyon, the 1963 MS 7.1 Dulan, the 1973 MS 7.3 Manyi, the 1997 MS7.5 Manyi, and the 2001 MW 7.8 Kokoxili earthquakes. We simulate stress evolution process produced by seismic dislocation in layered viscoelastic media, and calculate Coulomb failure stress change on the fault plane of each subsequent earthquake. The result shows that the Coulomb failure stress on the fault plane of the Kokoxili earthquake was increased by the previous 4 earthquakes, and viscoelastic relaxation gradually enhanced the Coulomb failure stress field as time elapsed. By evaluating Coulomb failure stress change produced by coseismic rupture and viscoelastic relaxation of the 4 preceding large earthquakes, we find that Coulomb failure stress change produced by viscoelastic relaxation is much more significant than that produced by coseismic deformation in 3 of the 4 earthquakes. The stress field simulation indicates that after the Kokoxili earthquake Coulomb failure stress in the Xidatan-Dongdatan segment (between the Kokoxili and Dulan segments) of the East Kunlun fault is increased as much as 0.05～0.10MPa, implying significantly increased earthquake potential in this region.
Secondly we simulate the evolution process of cumulative Coulomb failure stress change ( ) in Northeast Tibetan Palteau since 1920 and North China since 1303, manifested by secular tectonic stress loading and occurrence of large earthquakes. Secular tectonic stress loading is averaged from crustal strain rates derived from GPS. Assuming a layered visco-elastic medium, we calculate stress evolution resulted from secular tectonic loading and coseismic and postseismic deformation. At the eve of each large earthquake the accumulated stress field is project to the fault surface of that earthquake and the is evaluated to assess the triggering effect of . Our results show that in northeast Tibet Planetau, 17 out of 20 earthquakes occurred in the regions with positive , yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. In North China, statistics shows that 39 out of the 48 subsequent events were triggered by positive , yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. Our study shows very high correlation between positive and earthquake occurrences. Relatively high in North China at present time is concentrated around the Bohai Sea, the west segment of the Northern Qinling fault, western end of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic zone, and the Taiyuan basin, Shanxi graben, suggesting relatively higher earthquake potential in these areas.
1、地震应力触发研究
目前地震断层相互作用问题已引起地震学家的广泛关注。许多研究表明一条断层的破裂可以影响附近其他断层趋于破裂的进程，两条断层的确切作用取决于它们的相对位置、破裂机制、错动量和介质力学性质。
首先对青藏高原北部东昆仑破裂带大地震之间的应力转移和断层相互作用进行研究。考虑1937年以来沿此破裂带发生的5个M≥7的地震：1937年M7.5花石峡地震，1963年Ms7.1都兰地震，1973年Ms7.3玛尼地震，1997年Mw7.5玛尼地震和2001年Mw7.8可可西里地震。模拟了黏弹性成层介质中地震断层错动产生的应力演化过程，并计算了在后续地震破裂面上产生的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明，前面四个地震均造成2001年可可西里地震断层面上库仑破裂应力的增加，并且中地壳和下地壳的黏弹性松弛效应使得库仑破裂应力场随着时间的推移而逐渐加强。在计算过程中定量估计了可可西里地震发生时前面四个地震同震形变和黏弹性松弛导致可可西里地震破裂面上库仑破裂应力变化之间的比值，发现前三个地震由黏弹性松弛造成的变化远远大于同震形变所造成的变化。可可西里地震之后应力场的模拟表明东昆仑断层中段的东大滩—西大滩断层段(位于可可西里地震破裂以东及都兰地震以西)的库仑破裂应力显著增加，变化值达0.05～0.1MPa，预示这一地区地震危险性的增加。
其次，我们研究自1920年以来青藏高原东北部和华北地区700年米由于长期构造加载及地震断层错动导致的累积库仑破裂应力变化( )的演化过程。长期构造加载场由GPS观测得到的地壳平均应变率场给出。考虑粘弹性成层介质地壳模型，计算长期构造加载和地震形变(同震及震后介质粘弹性驰豫变形)造成的累积应力场变化。将累积应力场变化投影到后续地震断层面和滑动方向上得到，并研究其对后续地震发生的触发作用。结果表明，青藏高原东北部的20个M≥7.0地震中，17个人地震均发生在库仑破裂应力变化为正的区域，触发率达85％；对1303年以来华北地区发生的49个M≥16.5地震研究结果表明：对48个后续地震中的39个有触发作用，触发率达到81.3％。研究表明与发生后续的地震有很好的相关性。当前 显著上升的地区包括渤海及其邻域地区、西秦岭北缘断裂带、张家口—渤海地震带西端和太原盆地，其地震危险性应引起重视。
根据前人研究的唐山地震破裂分布、地壳波速和黏性结构，计算了该地震产生的投影到滦县和宁河余震上的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明，随后发生的滦县地震和宁河地震均发生在前面地震产生的库仑破裂应力为正的区域。为研究唐山地震、滦县地震和宁河地震与后续小震位置之间的相关关系，根据前人对该地区构造应力场和地震破裂分布的研究，假定构造应力量值为10MPa，求得了震源附近各处可能的小震震源机制，将上述三个地震产生的应力变化投影到可能的小震破裂面和滑动方向上，发现唐山地震、滦县地震和宁河地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化的“蝴蝶”花瓣分布与后续小震发生的空间模式有较好的一致性。说明唐山地震序列中前面的大震对后续小震的发生起到了调制作用。
The genesis and occurrence of earthquakes and their subsequent impacts are complex physical processes. Studies of these processes help understand the mechanics of earthquakes and the future physical state of the Earth. The physical processes of earthquakes are studied in the following aspects in this paper:
1. Study on seismic stress triggering
Fault interaction and earthquake occurrence have attracted much attention in seismological community during recent years. Many studies showed that rupture of one fault could encourage or discourage earthquake nucleation on a neighboring fault, depending on the relative geometry of the two faults and the earthquake rupture mechanisms.
Firstly we study stress transfer and triggering of large earthquakes along the East Kunlun fault system, northern Tibetan Plateau. Five M >7 earthquakes occurred along the fault zone during the past 70 years are considered: the 1937 M7.5 Huashi Canyon, the 1963 MS 7.1 Dulan, the 1973 MS 7.3 Manyi, the 1997 MS7.5 Manyi, and the 2001 MW 7.8 Kokoxili earthquakes. We simulate stress evolution process produced by seismic dislocation in layered viscoelastic media, and calculate Coulomb failure stress change on the fault plane of each subsequent earthquake. The result shows that the Coulomb failure stress on the fault plane of the Kokoxili earthquake was increased by the previous 4 earthquakes, and viscoelastic relaxation gradually enhanced the Coulomb failure stress field as time elapsed. By evaluating Coulomb failure stress change produced by coseismic rupture and viscoelastic relaxation of the 4 preceding large earthquakes, we find that Coulomb failure stress change produced by viscoelastic relaxation is much more significant than that produced by coseismic deformation in 3 of the 4 earthquakes. The stress field simulation indicates that after the Kokoxili earthquake Coulomb failure stress in the Xidatan-Dongdatan segment (between the Kokoxili and Dulan segments) of the East Kunlun fault is increased as much as 0.05～0.10MPa, implying significantly increased earthquake potential in this region.
Secondly we simulate the evolution process of cumulative Coulomb failure stress change ( ) in Northeast Tibetan Palteau since 1920 and North China since 1303, manifested by secular tectonic stress loading and occurrence of large earthquakes. Secular tectonic stress loading is averaged from crustal strain rates derived from GPS. Assuming a layered visco-elastic medium, we calculate stress evolution resulted from secular tectonic loading and coseismic and postseismic deformation. At the eve of each large earthquake the accumulated stress field is project to the fault surface of that earthquake and the is evaluated to assess the triggering effect of . Our results show that in northeast Tibet Planetau, 17 out of 20 earthquakes occurred in the regions with positive , yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. In North China, statistics shows that 39 out of the 48 subsequent events were triggered by positive , yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. Our study shows very high correlation between positive and earthquake occurrences. Relatively high in North China at present time is concentrated around the Bohai Sea, the west segment of the Northern Qinling fault, western end of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic zone, and the Taiyuan basin, Shanxi graben, suggesting relatively higher earthquake potential in these areas.
引文
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