强震成组活动及其相互影响的数值模拟研究
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摘要
关于地震孕震过程，早期的研究大多侧重于震源模型和理论，围绕地震孕育发生过程中，震源及其邻近地区应力场、应变场的时空动态演化来研讨其长、中、短、临各阶段的现象与机理，而较少涉及各地震之间相互关系的研究。然而，地震活动的事实表明，强震不是孤立事件，它们之间有密切的关系，某些强震组是同一个孕震过程的产物。20世纪90年代以来，科学家们开始注重强震之间相互作用的研究。地震间相互作用、相互影响是构成地震活动复杂性的一个重要因素。
本文试图从现象到理论，研究强震的成组孕育、成组活动特征，特别是针对川滇这一特定地区，应用地质构造和深部地球物理的最新研究成果，建立三维有限元模型，研究强震成组活动的机制，为地震分析预测研究搭建一个有一定理论基础的平台，探索地震物理预测的一些途径，这正是本论文的初衷。
首先，以中国大陆地区历史地震记录为统计样本，对大陆地震在时间和空间上的分布特征进行统计，表明，无论是把我国陆区作为一个整体来研究，还是把我国陆区分为东西两区来研究，乃至取某一个地区的区域地震活动性来研究，大陆地震活动在时间和空间上呈成组性丛集活动特征，即中国大陆强震成组活动的特性具有鲜明的客观性。
然后，本文采取了一种比较简便的方法—At值扫描方法，对地震间的关联特性进行半定量的研究，计算地震应变释放在区域强震扰动发生前后的变化。通过空间扫描图象描述大范围的响应情况，分别对中国大陆的华北地区、西南地区和西北地区强震前后地震活动进行了分析。表明：某次强震活动可以引起某些孕震区的加载，介质非线性应变积累加速，使处于高应力状态的震源失稳提前进入不稳定状态，后续强震提前发生，即强震之间存在着时间、空间上的关联性。
之后，本文针对强震频发的川滇地区，进行了较为深入的研究。应用Okata的应力触发理论，对川滇地区强震相互触发、地震成组活动进行较系统的分析研究。统计结果表明：大约50％地震均发生在前一次地震的库仑破裂应力变化正值区，30％发生在应力变化负值区，20％发生在正负交界区。
在上述研究基础上，本文对地震成组活动及其相互影响进行了有限元数字模拟研究。首先，针对青藏构造地块，尝试建立了应力演化和地震活动二维有限元模型。将有限元理论模型应用于某一实际地区，研究应力演化、应力调整与强震成组孕育、成组活动的关系，对青藏构造地块强震间相互关联特征进行初步模拟。表明，可以用有限元方法模拟计算强震的应力调整和影响作用，并确定应力增强区，为下一次强震发生的地点判定提供依据。
然后，根据近年来国家重点基础研究规划项目“中国强震机理与预测”等取得的川滇地区地质构造活动和深部地球物理等的最新成果，建立了川滇地区四层三维有限元模型。模型划分较细，包括了各种性质的断裂带，如：甘孜—玉树断裂带、鲜水河断裂带、岷江断裂带、龙门山断裂带、金沙江断裂带、小金河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带、小江断裂带、楚雄—建水断裂带、红河断裂带、小金河-丽江、龙陵—澜沧断裂带等。又根据近年来取得的最新的震源机制解和GPS测量资料为约束条件，确定了模型的边界条件，分别计算了川滇地区的背景应力场、断层蠕动产生的应力场和强震触发的应力场，重点对川滇地区1988-1996年动态库仑破裂应力变化进行了模拟计算，研究了前面地震对后续地震的触发影响。结果表明：1988-1996川滇地区的几次强震中，1989年的巴塘强震群发生在1988年澜沧-耿马地震后的库仑破裂应力变化正值区，1995年的
武定地震发生在库仑破裂应力变化止负值交界区，1996年的丽江地震发生在库仑破裂应力变化正
值区。这说明，前面强震对一后续地震有相当的影响，后续地震大多发生在前面强震所引发的库仑
破裂应力变化正值区，显示出先发地震对后续地震有一定的触发作用。强震往往是在较高的应力
背景卜相互作用、相互影响的，进而呈现为带有时空丛集性的成组活动图像。
最后，本文又从强震发生前后的前兆异常变化特征等方面对上述模型进行了实际检验，表明
模型与实际地震活动特征相一致，模型模拟结果对前兆异常机理研究有一定的士旨导作用。
通过以上研究可以认为，成组孕育、成组活动是中国大陆强地震孕育、活动的基本特征。既
然地震前的各种异常反映的是强震孕震过程，并且大多数强震是成组孕育的，那么在各种异常中
就有可能存在地震组异常，这对日常判断、识别前兆异常，提高地震预测水平有实际应用意义。
本论文对川滇地区初步搭建了一个地震分析预测研究的三维有限元数值模拟平台，尽管还有
许多待完善之处，但本文的研究方向是有益的，对将数值模拟研究应用于实际地震预测有理论上
的启迪意义，对地震从经验预测向物理预测发展有一定的借鉴作用。
The previous researches on the seismogenic process emphasized particularly on single earthquake source model and theory, and studied the phenomena and mechanisms of long term medium term and short-term earthquake preparation process according to its temporal and spatial dynamic evolvement of stress field and strain field in earthquake source and its neighboring area. However, the facts of seismic activities show that strong earthquakes aren't isolated each other, they have consanguineous relationship. Some of strong group earthquakes are the outcome of the same seismogenic process. Scientists have put emphasis on interaction of strong earthquakes since 1990's. The interaction and influence of earthquakes each other is one of an important factor, which is also of the complexity of seismic activities.
In the article, from phenomenon to theory, we have studied the characteristics of strong group seismogenic earthquakes and group activities and tried setting up 3D finite element model and studied the mechanism of strong earthquakes group activities, particularly, aiming at Sichuan-Yunnan special region, applying the latest research result of geologic structure and deep physical geography. It is only the original intention to set up a theoretical basal platform for earthquake analysis and prediction and to search for some ways for physical prediction.
First, let us take the history record of activities of the earthquakes on the mainland as the sample of statistics to analyze the distribution characteristics of the mainland earthquakes in both time and space. It shows that no matter we take the mainland as a whole to study, or take the mainland as two sections(the east and the west), even take the activities of the earthquakes in a certain region to study, the mainland activities occur in cluster in both time and space. That is to say there is a clear objectivity in the characteristic of the activities of the strong mainland earthquakes-group activity.
Then, a simple way that is At-value scanning method is adopted to make a semi-quantitative research on the correlative characteristics of inter-earthquakes and to calculate the change of the strain release before and after region strong earthquakes occurred. Through the large range responding condition described by spatial scanning image, we have analyzed the seismic activities before and after strong earthquakes in north of China, southwest region and northwest region. Analysis of a great many data shows that some strong earthquake will arouse seismogenic zone loading and bring the increase of stress, accelerate accumulation of nonlinear strain of medium. It will make the earthquake source rupture of high stress status in unsteadiness in advance, which resulting the proceeding earthquake occur in advance. So strong earthquakes is associated in time and space.
Then, we have made a further research for Sichuan-Yunan district. Based on the Okata theory of stress triggering, we make a systemic analysis on the triggering each other of strong earthquakes and group activities of earthquake. The statistical result shows that about 50 percent of earthquakes occurred in the positive area of coulomb rupture stress of the preceding earthquake. 30 percent of earthquake occurs in the negative area and20 percent of them occurred in the boundary area.
Based on above research, the 3D finite element research on mathematic modeling research has been carried out for group activities and interaction of earthquakes. First, We try setting up 2D finite element model of stress evolvement and seismic activities for tectonic blocks of Qinghai-Tibet Platean. Study the relationship of stress evolvement, adjustment and group seismogenic activities of strong earthquakes and make a preliminary modeling the interaction characteristic between strong earthquakes in tectonic blocks of Qinghai-Tibet Platean.The research shows that we can simulate and calculate the function of adjustment and influence of stress by the way of finite element, and determine the increasi
本文试图从现象到理论，研究强震的成组孕育、成组活动特征，特别是针对川滇这一特定地区，应用地质构造和深部地球物理的最新研究成果，建立三维有限元模型，研究强震成组活动的机制，为地震分析预测研究搭建一个有一定理论基础的平台，探索地震物理预测的一些途径，这正是本论文的初衷。
首先，以中国大陆地区历史地震记录为统计样本，对大陆地震在时间和空间上的分布特征进行统计，表明，无论是把我国陆区作为一个整体来研究，还是把我国陆区分为东西两区来研究，乃至取某一个地区的区域地震活动性来研究，大陆地震活动在时间和空间上呈成组性丛集活动特征，即中国大陆强震成组活动的特性具有鲜明的客观性。
然后，本文采取了一种比较简便的方法—At值扫描方法，对地震间的关联特性进行半定量的研究，计算地震应变释放在区域强震扰动发生前后的变化。通过空间扫描图象描述大范围的响应情况，分别对中国大陆的华北地区、西南地区和西北地区强震前后地震活动进行了分析。表明：某次强震活动可以引起某些孕震区的加载，介质非线性应变积累加速，使处于高应力状态的震源失稳提前进入不稳定状态，后续强震提前发生，即强震之间存在着时间、空间上的关联性。
之后，本文针对强震频发的川滇地区，进行了较为深入的研究。应用Okata的应力触发理论，对川滇地区强震相互触发、地震成组活动进行较系统的分析研究。统计结果表明：大约50％地震均发生在前一次地震的库仑破裂应力变化正值区，30％发生在应力变化负值区，20％发生在正负交界区。
在上述研究基础上，本文对地震成组活动及其相互影响进行了有限元数字模拟研究。首先，针对青藏构造地块，尝试建立了应力演化和地震活动二维有限元模型。将有限元理论模型应用于某一实际地区，研究应力演化、应力调整与强震成组孕育、成组活动的关系，对青藏构造地块强震间相互关联特征进行初步模拟。表明，可以用有限元方法模拟计算强震的应力调整和影响作用，并确定应力增强区，为下一次强震发生的地点判定提供依据。
然后，根据近年来国家重点基础研究规划项目“中国强震机理与预测”等取得的川滇地区地质构造活动和深部地球物理等的最新成果，建立了川滇地区四层三维有限元模型。模型划分较细，包括了各种性质的断裂带，如：甘孜—玉树断裂带、鲜水河断裂带、岷江断裂带、龙门山断裂带、金沙江断裂带、小金河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带、小江断裂带、楚雄—建水断裂带、红河断裂带、小金河-丽江、龙陵—澜沧断裂带等。又根据近年来取得的最新的震源机制解和GPS测量资料为约束条件，确定了模型的边界条件，分别计算了川滇地区的背景应力场、断层蠕动产生的应力场和强震触发的应力场，重点对川滇地区1988-1996年动态库仑破裂应力变化进行了模拟计算，研究了前面地震对后续地震的触发影响。结果表明：1988-1996川滇地区的几次强震中，1989年的巴塘强震群发生在1988年澜沧-耿马地震后的库仑破裂应力变化正值区，1995年的
武定地震发生在库仑破裂应力变化止负值交界区，1996年的丽江地震发生在库仑破裂应力变化正
值区。这说明，前面强震对一后续地震有相当的影响，后续地震大多发生在前面强震所引发的库仑
破裂应力变化正值区，显示出先发地震对后续地震有一定的触发作用。强震往往是在较高的应力
背景卜相互作用、相互影响的，进而呈现为带有时空丛集性的成组活动图像。
最后，本文又从强震发生前后的前兆异常变化特征等方面对上述模型进行了实际检验，表明
模型与实际地震活动特征相一致，模型模拟结果对前兆异常机理研究有一定的士旨导作用。
通过以上研究可以认为，成组孕育、成组活动是中国大陆强地震孕育、活动的基本特征。既
然地震前的各种异常反映的是强震孕震过程，并且大多数强震是成组孕育的，那么在各种异常中
就有可能存在地震组异常，这对日常判断、识别前兆异常，提高地震预测水平有实际应用意义。
本论文对川滇地区初步搭建了一个地震分析预测研究的三维有限元数值模拟平台，尽管还有
许多待完善之处，但本文的研究方向是有益的，对将数值模拟研究应用于实际地震预测有理论上
的启迪意义，对地震从经验预测向物理预测发展有一定的借鉴作用。
The previous researches on the seismogenic process emphasized particularly on single earthquake source model and theory, and studied the phenomena and mechanisms of long term medium term and short-term earthquake preparation process according to its temporal and spatial dynamic evolvement of stress field and strain field in earthquake source and its neighboring area. However, the facts of seismic activities show that strong earthquakes aren't isolated each other, they have consanguineous relationship. Some of strong group earthquakes are the outcome of the same seismogenic process. Scientists have put emphasis on interaction of strong earthquakes since 1990's. The interaction and influence of earthquakes each other is one of an important factor, which is also of the complexity of seismic activities.
In the article, from phenomenon to theory, we have studied the characteristics of strong group seismogenic earthquakes and group activities and tried setting up 3D finite element model and studied the mechanism of strong earthquakes group activities, particularly, aiming at Sichuan-Yunnan special region, applying the latest research result of geologic structure and deep physical geography. It is only the original intention to set up a theoretical basal platform for earthquake analysis and prediction and to search for some ways for physical prediction.
First, let us take the history record of activities of the earthquakes on the mainland as the sample of statistics to analyze the distribution characteristics of the mainland earthquakes in both time and space. It shows that no matter we take the mainland as a whole to study, or take the mainland as two sections(the east and the west), even take the activities of the earthquakes in a certain region to study, the mainland activities occur in cluster in both time and space. That is to say there is a clear objectivity in the characteristic of the activities of the strong mainland earthquakes-group activity.
Then, a simple way that is At-value scanning method is adopted to make a semi-quantitative research on the correlative characteristics of inter-earthquakes and to calculate the change of the strain release before and after region strong earthquakes occurred. Through the large range responding condition described by spatial scanning image, we have analyzed the seismic activities before and after strong earthquakes in north of China, southwest region and northwest region. Analysis of a great many data shows that some strong earthquake will arouse seismogenic zone loading and bring the increase of stress, accelerate accumulation of nonlinear strain of medium. It will make the earthquake source rupture of high stress status in unsteadiness in advance, which resulting the proceeding earthquake occur in advance. So strong earthquakes is associated in time and space.
Then, we have made a further research for Sichuan-Yunan district. Based on the Okata theory of stress triggering, we make a systemic analysis on the triggering each other of strong earthquakes and group activities of earthquake. The statistical result shows that about 50 percent of earthquakes occurred in the positive area of coulomb rupture stress of the preceding earthquake. 30 percent of earthquake occurs in the negative area and20 percent of them occurred in the boundary area.
Based on above research, the 3D finite element research on mathematic modeling research has been carried out for group activities and interaction of earthquakes. First, We try setting up 2D finite element model of stress evolvement and seismic activities for tectonic blocks of Qinghai-Tibet Platean. Study the relationship of stress evolvement, adjustment and group seismogenic activities of strong earthquakes and make a preliminary modeling the interaction characteristic between strong earthquakes in tectonic blocks of Qinghai-Tibet Platean.The research shows that we can simulate and calculate the function of adjustment and influence of stress by the way of finite element, and determine the increasi
引文
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