“地震静态应力触发”问题的研究
摘要
地震“静态应力触发”问题是当前地震界争论的焦点问题之一。很多地震学
家声称地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化可以影响后续破裂的发生，然而也有一些与
此相违背的震例存在。况且，目前所研究的震例很难说是系统的和全面的。因此，
有必要对“静态应力触发”问题做更深入、更细致、更系统的研究工作。
在地震“静态应力触发”问题的讨论中，按照己发生的地震与“被触发”地
震之间的关系，目前所进行的研究大致上可分为几类：（1）地震“触发”余震的
研究（2）大地震“触发”另一次大地震的研究（3）火山或爆炸“触发”地震
的研究。本文的研究属于第二类。我们对地震“静态应力触发”的研究侧重于两
个基本问题：第一，从大量地震资料，系统地看“静态应力触发模型”的适用程
度到底如何；第二，将“静态应力触发模型”应用于中国及邻区地震时有哪些问
题需要解决。
首先，我们研究了复杂地震中不同破裂事件之间的“应力触发”关系的特殊
震例。这些震例都具有复杂的破裂过程，作为一个近似，可以用时间间隔很短（几
秒到数十天）的两次或两次以上的子破裂事件来描述。数字地震学的发展使得地
震学家可以得到准确的子破裂事件的位置和震源机制，为本研究提供了基础资料。
为探讨不同的子破裂事件之间的关系，我们计算了邢台地震、唐山地震、澜沧-
耿马地震、青海共和地震和云南丽江地震的第一次破裂事件在第二次事件破裂面
上产生的静态库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明：上述地震中除澜沧-耿马地震外，第
一次子破裂事件所产生的静态库仑应力变化均对后续子破裂事件有“触发”作用，
即后续子破裂事件落在第一次子破裂事件产生的库仑破裂应力增加的区域中，或
者说第一次于破裂事件产生的静态库仑应力变化“有利于”第二次破裂事件的发
生。
我们采用哈佛大学 1976～2000年的知心矩张量目录对“静态应力触发模型”
进行检验。计算了前面地震事件在后续地震断层面和滑动方向上产生的库仑破裂
应力变化，发现正库仑破裂应力变化的“地震对”数多于负库仑破裂应力变化的
“地震对”数。这表明（l）浅源“地震对”前面地震事一
力变化确实对后续地震有一定的“触发”作用，但这种“触发”作用很小。按照
Frohlich（1992）对地震断层分类的方法对地震按断层类型计算地震产生的库仑破
裂应力变化，结果表明：（2）非走滑断层地震“触发”效应较为明显，而走滑断
层类型的地震“触发”效应较弱。这表明，震源机制对地震“静态应力触发”效
应影响很大。将“地震对”按延迟时间分类，分为延迟时间 T≥1天、T＜ 天、
T≥10 天，T＜1m天、l天≤T≤10天五个时间段分别进行静态库仑破裂应力变化
计算。结果表明，门）鱼砌③钻验巫幽唤二凶夏指钩垂③期萎二剑型纺强
望遏凶哑鲤塑囫迎医。对全球地震分区研究发现N）逍应麦兰龊墅〔且L勉
宴忽厦二朋垦。中强“地震对”的“触发”效应与固体潮关系的研究表明，u）
全鱼】娜留f且L型龌二黝堕封酗鸥u逢。运用中国及邻区的248对地震，
对前面破裂事件在后续破裂面和滑动方向上产生的库仑破裂应力变化的计算结果
表明，（6）就屯虱朝匹组四疆偻型丛迫毡哑屋也葛丛过页亘二B引养霎抛
一
地震断层错动产生的库仑破裂应力变化很小，只是0．olMPa的数量级。一个
自然提出的问题是地震参数的不确定性导致的库仑破裂应力变化误差是否大于
库仑破裂应力变化本身。本文针对这个问题开展了系统的研究。为明确地震震源
机制测定结果的不确定性，进而探讨地震产牛的静态库仑破裂应力变化的误差，
我们搜集了二十世纪中国第五个地震活跃期以来，地震学家和大地测量学家用不
同方法和不同资料测定的中国地震震源机制结果，计算了同一地震的不同反演结
果滑动矢量夹角及地震矩之间的差别。结果表明，同一地震不同测定结果的滑动
矢量夹角的优势分布在20”左右；不同测定结果的地震矩差别一般不超过1倍，
对应的震级差约为0．2。以丽江地震为例讨论了地震震源参数的不确定性对地震
“应力触发”中库仑破裂应力变化计算结果的影响。根据上述差别和误差传播公
式，考虑中国地震震源机制和震级的不确定性，对中国及邻区地震目录中的浅源
“地震对”重新进行库仑破裂应力变化计算，发现对于中国及邻区地震不易于观
测到地震“静态应力触发”现象。给出了哈佛矩心矩张量目录中地震产生的库仑
破裂应力变化误差的计算方法及误差传播公式，运用误差传播公式用哈佛矩心矩
张量目录重新计算了浅源“地震对”之间的静态库仑破裂应力变化，得到了与前
面一致的结论。
"Static stress triggering" problem currently is one of the controversy questions in seismic circles. Lots of seismologists claimed that Coulomb stress change produced by earthquake can affect occurrence of subsequent rupture, but there are some violational earthquake examples. And also research on these earthquake examples cannot be systematic. So it's necessary to do some research on "static stress triggering" problem systematically and deeply.
In the discussion of "static stress triggering" problem, based on the relationship between the occurred earthquake and "triggered" earthquake, the researches at present can be roughly divided into 3 categories: (1) aftershocks triggered by mainshock; (2) the strong earthquakes triggered by other strong earthquakes; (3) earthquakes triggered by volcano or explosion. The research work of this paper belongs to the second category. Our research on "static stress triggering" emphasizes particularly on two basic questions: firstly, how systematically is applicability of "static stress triggering model" according to a great deal of seismic data, and secondly what kinds of problem need to be solved when "static stress triggering model" is applied to China and its adjacent earthquakes.
First of all, we give a research of specific earthquake examples on "stress triggering" relationship between different rupture subevent in one complex earthquake. All these earthquake examples have complex rupture process. As approximation, each earthquake can be described as two or more subevents of rupture with short time interval(several seconds to several days). In recent years, as the development of digital seismology, exact epicenter and seismic mechanism can be obtained. This development provides fundamental data for our research. In order to discuss the relationship between different subevents, we've calculated the static stress changes produced by the first event on fault plane and slip direction of the second event in Xintai, Tangshan, Lancang-Gengma, Gonghe and Lijiang earthquakes. The result suggests that except for Lancang-Gengma
earthquake, the static Coulomb stress changes produced by the first subevents of all the above earthquakes have "triggering" effect on the subsequent subevents which locate in the region where the Coulomb stress change produced by the first event is positive. Or we can say the static Coulomb stress change produced by the first rupture is "in favor of" the occurrence of the second event.
We give "static stress triggering model" a test using Harvard CMT seismic catalog from 1976 to 2000. Coulomb failure stress changes(ACF5") produced by former earthquake on fault plane and slip direction of latter earthquake have been calculated. We found that the number of earthquake doublets with positive CFS change is more than that of negative CFS change. The results indicate that the previous events in shallow earthquake doublets do have "triggering" effect on the following event, but the effect is very weak. According to Frohlich(1992), all earthquakes were divided into normal fault, thrust fault, strike-slip fault and odd fault earthquakes, and CFS changes have been calculated. Result shows that "static stress triggering" effect of non-strike-slip fault earthquake doublets is significant, but "triggering" effect on strike-slip fault earthquake doublets is very weak. This indicates that seismic mechanism has great effect on "static stress triggering". Five delayed time scales of more than one day, less than one day, more than 10 days, less than 10 days and between 1 day and 10 days are divided and the static CFS changes are calculated respectively. The result shows "seismic stress triggering" effect doesn't change as delay time changes in short time after earthquakes. The research on earthquake doublets of different tectonic zones shows that triggering effect of subduction earthquake doublets is significant. The result of seismic "static stress triggering effect" is independent of earth tide has been obtained. The CFS changes produced by former ruptures o
家声称地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化可以影响后续破裂的发生，然而也有一些与
此相违背的震例存在。况且，目前所研究的震例很难说是系统的和全面的。因此，
有必要对“静态应力触发”问题做更深入、更细致、更系统的研究工作。
在地震“静态应力触发”问题的讨论中，按照己发生的地震与“被触发”地
震之间的关系，目前所进行的研究大致上可分为几类：（1）地震“触发”余震的
研究（2）大地震“触发”另一次大地震的研究（3）火山或爆炸“触发”地震
的研究。本文的研究属于第二类。我们对地震“静态应力触发”的研究侧重于两
个基本问题：第一，从大量地震资料，系统地看“静态应力触发模型”的适用程
度到底如何；第二，将“静态应力触发模型”应用于中国及邻区地震时有哪些问
题需要解决。
首先，我们研究了复杂地震中不同破裂事件之间的“应力触发”关系的特殊
震例。这些震例都具有复杂的破裂过程，作为一个近似，可以用时间间隔很短（几
秒到数十天）的两次或两次以上的子破裂事件来描述。数字地震学的发展使得地
震学家可以得到准确的子破裂事件的位置和震源机制，为本研究提供了基础资料。
为探讨不同的子破裂事件之间的关系，我们计算了邢台地震、唐山地震、澜沧-
耿马地震、青海共和地震和云南丽江地震的第一次破裂事件在第二次事件破裂面
上产生的静态库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明：上述地震中除澜沧-耿马地震外，第
一次子破裂事件所产生的静态库仑应力变化均对后续子破裂事件有“触发”作用，
即后续子破裂事件落在第一次子破裂事件产生的库仑破裂应力增加的区域中，或
者说第一次于破裂事件产生的静态库仑应力变化“有利于”第二次破裂事件的发
生。
我们采用哈佛大学 1976～2000年的知心矩张量目录对“静态应力触发模型”
进行检验。计算了前面地震事件在后续地震断层面和滑动方向上产生的库仑破裂
应力变化，发现正库仑破裂应力变化的“地震对”数多于负库仑破裂应力变化的
“地震对”数。这表明（l）浅源“地震对”前面地震事一
力变化确实对后续地震有一定的“触发”作用，但这种“触发”作用很小。按照
Frohlich（1992）对地震断层分类的方法对地震按断层类型计算地震产生的库仑破
裂应力变化，结果表明：（2）非走滑断层地震“触发”效应较为明显，而走滑断
层类型的地震“触发”效应较弱。这表明，震源机制对地震“静态应力触发”效
应影响很大。将“地震对”按延迟时间分类，分为延迟时间 T≥1天、T＜ 天、
T≥10 天，T＜1m天、l天≤T≤10天五个时间段分别进行静态库仑破裂应力变化
计算。结果表明，门）鱼砌③钻验巫幽唤二凶夏指钩垂③期萎二剑型纺强
望遏凶哑鲤塑囫迎医。对全球地震分区研究发现N）逍应麦兰龊墅〔且L勉
宴忽厦二朋垦。中强“地震对”的“触发”效应与固体潮关系的研究表明，u）
全鱼】娜留f且L型龌二黝堕封酗鸥u逢。运用中国及邻区的248对地震，
对前面破裂事件在后续破裂面和滑动方向上产生的库仑破裂应力变化的计算结果
表明，（6）就屯虱朝匹组四疆偻型丛迫毡哑屋也葛丛过页亘二B引养霎抛
一
地震断层错动产生的库仑破裂应力变化很小，只是0．olMPa的数量级。一个
自然提出的问题是地震参数的不确定性导致的库仑破裂应力变化误差是否大于
库仑破裂应力变化本身。本文针对这个问题开展了系统的研究。为明确地震震源
机制测定结果的不确定性，进而探讨地震产牛的静态库仑破裂应力变化的误差，
我们搜集了二十世纪中国第五个地震活跃期以来，地震学家和大地测量学家用不
同方法和不同资料测定的中国地震震源机制结果，计算了同一地震的不同反演结
果滑动矢量夹角及地震矩之间的差别。结果表明，同一地震不同测定结果的滑动
矢量夹角的优势分布在20”左右；不同测定结果的地震矩差别一般不超过1倍，
对应的震级差约为0．2。以丽江地震为例讨论了地震震源参数的不确定性对地震
“应力触发”中库仑破裂应力变化计算结果的影响。根据上述差别和误差传播公
式，考虑中国地震震源机制和震级的不确定性，对中国及邻区地震目录中的浅源
“地震对”重新进行库仑破裂应力变化计算，发现对于中国及邻区地震不易于观
测到地震“静态应力触发”现象。给出了哈佛矩心矩张量目录中地震产生的库仑
破裂应力变化误差的计算方法及误差传播公式，运用误差传播公式用哈佛矩心矩
张量目录重新计算了浅源“地震对”之间的静态库仑破裂应力变化，得到了与前
面一致的结论。
"Static stress triggering" problem currently is one of the controversy questions in seismic circles. Lots of seismologists claimed that Coulomb stress change produced by earthquake can affect occurrence of subsequent rupture, but there are some violational earthquake examples. And also research on these earthquake examples cannot be systematic. So it's necessary to do some research on "static stress triggering" problem systematically and deeply.
In the discussion of "static stress triggering" problem, based on the relationship between the occurred earthquake and "triggered" earthquake, the researches at present can be roughly divided into 3 categories: (1) aftershocks triggered by mainshock; (2) the strong earthquakes triggered by other strong earthquakes; (3) earthquakes triggered by volcano or explosion. The research work of this paper belongs to the second category. Our research on "static stress triggering" emphasizes particularly on two basic questions: firstly, how systematically is applicability of "static stress triggering model" according to a great deal of seismic data, and secondly what kinds of problem need to be solved when "static stress triggering model" is applied to China and its adjacent earthquakes.
First of all, we give a research of specific earthquake examples on "stress triggering" relationship between different rupture subevent in one complex earthquake. All these earthquake examples have complex rupture process. As approximation, each earthquake can be described as two or more subevents of rupture with short time interval(several seconds to several days). In recent years, as the development of digital seismology, exact epicenter and seismic mechanism can be obtained. This development provides fundamental data for our research. In order to discuss the relationship between different subevents, we've calculated the static stress changes produced by the first event on fault plane and slip direction of the second event in Xintai, Tangshan, Lancang-Gengma, Gonghe and Lijiang earthquakes. The result suggests that except for Lancang-Gengma
earthquake, the static Coulomb stress changes produced by the first subevents of all the above earthquakes have "triggering" effect on the subsequent subevents which locate in the region where the Coulomb stress change produced by the first event is positive. Or we can say the static Coulomb stress change produced by the first rupture is "in favor of" the occurrence of the second event.
We give "static stress triggering model" a test using Harvard CMT seismic catalog from 1976 to 2000. Coulomb failure stress changes(ACF5") produced by former earthquake on fault plane and slip direction of latter earthquake have been calculated. We found that the number of earthquake doublets with positive CFS change is more than that of negative CFS change. The results indicate that the previous events in shallow earthquake doublets do have "triggering" effect on the following event, but the effect is very weak. According to Frohlich(1992), all earthquakes were divided into normal fault, thrust fault, strike-slip fault and odd fault earthquakes, and CFS changes have been calculated. Result shows that "static stress triggering" effect of non-strike-slip fault earthquake doublets is significant, but "triggering" effect on strike-slip fault earthquake doublets is very weak. This indicates that seismic mechanism has great effect on "static stress triggering". Five delayed time scales of more than one day, less than one day, more than 10 days, less than 10 days and between 1 day and 10 days are divided and the static CFS changes are calculated respectively. The result shows "seismic stress triggering" effect doesn't change as delay time changes in short time after earthquakes. The research on earthquake doublets of different tectonic zones shows that triggering effect of subduction earthquake doublets is significant. The result of seismic "static stress triggering effect" is independent of earth tide has been obtained. The CFS changes produced by former ruptures o
引文
第一章
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第六章
刘桂萍、傅征祥．2000．1976年7月28日唐山7.8级地震触发的区域地震活动和静应力场变化，地震学报，22(6)：17～26
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