全新世东亚地区气候时空演变及古气候定量重建
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摘要
利用全新世东亚地区各种代用指标,对青藏高原、中国东部季风区和蒙古高原地区的干湿变化进行半定量的重建,对千年尺度上印度季风和东亚季风的强弱变化和进退作了详细阐述。通过对神农架大九湖地区的地表和地层孢粉样本的细致分析,建立了主要孢粉类型的响应面函数,选择不同的孢粉组合对神农架大九湖地区的七月平均温度和年降水量进行了重建试验。最后,分析比较了2ka来的重要气候事件在上述三个地区的时空分布特征,并主要依据树轮宽度年表进行PDO指数的重建试验。主要结论如下：
1.全新世印度夏季风和东亚夏季风的演化特征
通过10kaBP以来东亚地区湖泊水位变化和各种高分辨率代用指标气候意义的综合比较揭示了千年尺度上印度夏季风和东亚夏季风的强弱变化及其进退关系。印度夏季风在11.5kaBP前后增强,并在约0.5ka内迅速影响到青藏高原东南部、东部、东北、中部和西部地区,及中国西南、华南地区和长江流域,维持强盛约2-3ka。9kaBP时柴达木盆地和高原西部早全新世湿润期结束,约8kaBP华南地区最湿润期结束,同时高原中部季风强度减弱。7kaBP后,印度夏季风边缘从高原西部逐渐退至中部,在高原东北部也有萎缩。6-5kaBP,高原东北部、东部地区的代用指标记录了夏季风的一次减弱退缩,高原中部约在4.5kaBP暖湿期结束。义敦湖、海登湖和仁错记录了2.5-2.4kaBP印度夏季风强度再次减弱。
11.5kaBP时东亚夏季风已经影响到东北山地、内蒙古中部和黄土高原东部地区,在11-10.5kaBP影响内蒙古东部,出现短暂的暖湿气候,10kaBP前后东亚夏季风可能已推进至黄土高原西部和西北东部地区。较强的夏季风降水开始,东北山地最早在9.8-9.4kaBP,内蒙古东部在9.2-9kaBP,东北平原、内蒙古东北部、黄土高原中、东部在8.5kaBP,黄土高原西部在8.5-8.2kaBP之间,内蒙古中部、西北东部在8kaBP开始温湿期,新疆地区在8-7.2kaBP从东到西开始了短暂的温湿期,并在6.5kaBP前后结束。6.5kaBP内蒙古东北部,6.4kaBP东北山地季风降水逐步减少,夏季风强度减弱,东北平原、内蒙古东部、黄土高原在6kaBP结束最暖湿期。由中全新世的暖湿期或者降水较多时期向晚全新世干旱环境的转变时间为,内蒙古中部在5-4.5kaBP,东北地区约在4.2kaBP,黄土高原西部在4.5-4.2kaBP,而黄土高原大部在3.1kaBP。
2.全新世东亚地区气候干湿变化的半定量重建
主要依据阿洪错湖泊沉积等六个高分辨率气候指标,对青藏高原南部、中国东部和蒙古地区的干湿变化进行半定量重建。高原南部在全新世里较为湿润,最湿润期在8-6kaBP, 6-5kaBP为季风降水逐渐减少的向晚全新世的过渡期,晚全新世变得偏干,显著干旱事件发生在4kaBP和2kaBP前后。中国东部黄河以南的典型东亚夏季风控制地区早全新世为增温增湿阶段,在8.0-5.5kaBP为最暖湿时期,晚全新世里最干旱。西风带控制区干湿变化幅度大,干湿期区别显著,最干旱期对应于季风区的最湿润期。
3.神农架大九湖地区孢粉一气候响应面函数的建立和古气候定量重建试验
利用神农架大九湖地区地表和地层孢粉样本,及700-2800m海拔高度上的七月平均温度、年降水量的观测值,在对表土孢粉作典型对应分析和强局部加权回归的基础上,建立了主要孢粉类型的响应面模型,并重建大九湖地区泥炭剖面约16kaBP以来的七月平均温度和年降水量曲线,讨论了不同孢粉组合的气候学意义。结果表明,稳定型孢粉组合一次响应面模型重建的七月平均温度和年降水量曲线,较好地反映了晚冰期以来大九湖地区的气候变化趋势,对博令—阿勒罗德暖期、新仙女木事件、全新世最适宜期和8kaBP、4kaBP降温等重要气候事件都有指示。重建曲线的温湿组合显示,大九湖地区的气候在早全新世和中全新世前半期温度较高降水量较大,为全新世最适宜期,与低纬度地区的记录较为一致。孢粉因子的敏感性分析揭示,木本植物含量大,对环境的变化响应较为稳定;草本和蕨类植物对气候变化反应敏感,显著地记录了极端气候事件。
4.代用指标反映的东亚地区2ka来气候温湿变化
树轮宽度指数显示青藏高原东北部在公元5、9和10-11世纪春季降水较多。石笋记录反映的中国西南和华中地区夏季风降水量,分别在2ka里最初的0.2ka和0.5ka及18世纪之后较大。蒙古高原地区湿润程度2ka来逐渐增大,其湿润期对应于华北地区的低温期,反映了区域气候变化的共同特点。各区域气候变化的位相对比表明,华南地区的冬季风增强对应于夏季风降水的减少,华北地区的温度的降低和台勒门湖地区的湿润程度的增加。即在冷期里各指标的变化具有一致性,表明,小冰期冷事件是普遍存在的,是2ka以来温度最低和夏季风降水最少的时期。中、低纬度地区和中、高纬度地区在中世纪暖期的表现上具有较大的不同,10-14世纪之间,青藏高原、中国东部和蒙古高原地区的暖期,存在位相的逐渐偏移,青藏高原的暖期出现最早,中国东部和蒙故高原的大部分地区,则是随纬度的降低越晚出现。增温幅度在低纬度地区最弱,高纬度地区最明显,中纬度地区居中。18世纪后中国东部温度升高的时空变化也有上述特点。
5.树轮宽度指标重建PDO指数
代用指标与PDO指数的相关分析表明,东亚地区气候的年代际变化与太平洋海温的年代际变化存在密切联系,这种联系在高纬度地区比低纬度地区更紧密。17世纪以来PDO指数的重建曲线表明,PDO指数存在明显的年代际变化特征,准20年周期尤为显著。重建的PDO指数变化幅度比实测值偏小,但仍然能够反映极端的PDO指数变化,重建序列在18世纪下半叶到19世纪初具有较大的波动振幅。重建结果可以与北美西部的树轮指数重建曲线相比较,具有较为一致的低频变化。史料记载揭示的东亚地区干湿变化和代用指标重建的PDO指数在年代际尺度上有较好的对应,华北和长江中下游地区的旱涝分别与PDO指数存在正、负相关关系,即PDO暖位相时,华北地区偏旱,长江中下游地区偏涝。
Based on analysis of the climate proxy data, reconstruction of the wetness in Tibetan Plateau, East China, and Mongolia Plateau are made; also the evolution and intensity of Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon are analyzed in millennial scale in Holocene. Quantitative reconstruction of mean July temperature and annual precipitation is based on both pollen percentage content from surface and stratum pollen samples and vertical meteorological observations across 700-2800m in Dajiuhu, Shennongjia. Finally, tree-rings are used to deposit the temporal and spatial changes in the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, and the annual PDO index are reconstructed. The major conclusions are as followings:
1. Evolution of Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon in Holocene.
Lake status and high resolution climate records depicted the millennial-scale variability of Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon. Indian summer monsoon strengthened at about 11.5 kaBP, and controlled the whole Tibetan Plateau at 0.5ka. Then, it spread through Southwest China, South China and Yangtze River catchment for 2-3ka. The wettest period ended at 9 kaBP in Qaidam Basin and western Tibetan Plateau, and about 8 kaBP in South China meanwhile Indian summer monsoon weaken in middle part of Tibetan Plateau. After 7 kaBP the monsoon front returned to mid-Tibetan Plateau from western part. Another millennial weakening took place at 6-5 kaBP in east and northeast of the Plateau, together with the ending of warm-wet period in middle part. There's a weakening event of summer monsoon at 2.5-2.4 kaBP from the records of Yidun Lake, Haiden Lake and Rencuo.
East Asian summer monsoon had arrived in Northeast China, middle Inner Mongolia and eastern Loess Plateau at 11.5 kaBP, which caused a short warm-wet climate period. It might reach eastern Loess Plateau and east part of Northwest China at 10 kaBP. Beginning of strong summer monsoon precipitation was at 9.8-9.4 kaBP in mountain area of Northeast China,9.2-9 kaBP in eastern Inner Mongolia,8.5 kaBP in middle and east part and 8.5-8.2 kaBP in western Loess Plateau,8 kaBP in middle Inner Mongolia and east part of Northwest China, and 8-7.2 kaBP from east to west in Xinjiang province. Ending of warm-wet period started in Northwest China at 6.5 kaBP, while at 6 kaBP in Northeast Plain, eastern Inner Mongolia and Loess Plateau. The transition of wet to dry was at 5-4 kaBP in middle Inner Mongolia,4.2 kaBP in Northeast China and western Loess Plateau, then 3.1 kaBP of Loess Plateau.
2. Reconstruction of humidity change in East Asia in Holocene.
Result of semi-quantitative reconstruction of humidity in southern Tibetan Plateau, East China and Mongolia showed that it kept wet in Tibetan Plateau in whole Holocene, and the wettest period occurred at 8-6 kaBP. After about 6-5 kaBP it turned dry. The severe aridity events appeared around 4 and 2 kaBP. The warmest and wettest period was 8-5.5 kaBP in East China, with a warming and wetting early Holocene and droughty late Holocene. There's the largest fluctuation of humidity in Mongolia, and it's in heavy drought condition when wettest age occurred in East summer monsoon controlling area.
3. Quantitative reconstruction of mean July temperature and annual precipitation in Dajiuhu, Shennongjia based on pollen-climate response surface.
Quantitative reconstruction was based on pollen percentage content from surface and stratum pollen samples and vertical meteorological observations across 700-2800m. Canonical correspondence analysis and robust locally weighted regression of surface pollen samples gave the relationship between plants and climate, which helped us to build the nine pollen-climate response surface models. Reconstructed results of the stable type assemblage depicted the climate evolution from Late Glacial period credibly, including the B(?)lling-Aller(?)d warm period, Younger Drays, climatic optimum, cold events of 8 and 4 kaBP. Combination of temperature and humidity illustrates that climatic optimum with high temperature and precipitation occurred during early-Holocene and former mid-Holocene. Sensitivity analysis of pollen factors revealed that woody plants with high quantity were insensitive to abrupt climate change, herb and fern were more sensitive to climatic fluctuation, and recorded the extreme climatic events remarkably.
4. Moistiness change in East Asia for past 2ka.
Climate records of tree-rings, icecores and stalagmites indicate the wetness change in northeast Tibetan Plateau, East China and Mongolia. Stronger winter monsoon in South China responded to the decreasing of summer monsoon precipitation, and cooling in North China could be compared with wetter period in Mongolia, which pictured the general Little Ice Age. Medieval Warm Period appeared early in Tibetan Plateau, then gradually late along latitude in East China and Mongolia. Warming trend was remarkable in high latitude and not significant in lower latitude area. Global warming after 18th in East China displayed similar characteristics.
5. Reconstruction of PDO index in terms of tree-rings.
There're significant relationship between interdecadal climate change in East Asia and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, especially in high latitude area. Reconstruction of PDO since 1613 AD showed the interdecadal characteristics of the semi-20yr period. Change of reconstructed PDO was smaller than that of observation, and represented acute fluctuation from later part of 18th to early 19th. Our result is comparable with other's that had similar low frequency changing trend. Historical records confirm the truth of the change of wetness in the catchments of Yellow River and Yangtze River, which showed negative and positive relationship to PDO index, respectively.
1.全新世印度夏季风和东亚夏季风的演化特征
通过10kaBP以来东亚地区湖泊水位变化和各种高分辨率代用指标气候意义的综合比较揭示了千年尺度上印度夏季风和东亚夏季风的强弱变化及其进退关系。印度夏季风在11.5kaBP前后增强,并在约0.5ka内迅速影响到青藏高原东南部、东部、东北、中部和西部地区,及中国西南、华南地区和长江流域,维持强盛约2-3ka。9kaBP时柴达木盆地和高原西部早全新世湿润期结束,约8kaBP华南地区最湿润期结束,同时高原中部季风强度减弱。7kaBP后,印度夏季风边缘从高原西部逐渐退至中部,在高原东北部也有萎缩。6-5kaBP,高原东北部、东部地区的代用指标记录了夏季风的一次减弱退缩,高原中部约在4.5kaBP暖湿期结束。义敦湖、海登湖和仁错记录了2.5-2.4kaBP印度夏季风强度再次减弱。
11.5kaBP时东亚夏季风已经影响到东北山地、内蒙古中部和黄土高原东部地区,在11-10.5kaBP影响内蒙古东部,出现短暂的暖湿气候,10kaBP前后东亚夏季风可能已推进至黄土高原西部和西北东部地区。较强的夏季风降水开始,东北山地最早在9.8-9.4kaBP,内蒙古东部在9.2-9kaBP,东北平原、内蒙古东北部、黄土高原中、东部在8.5kaBP,黄土高原西部在8.5-8.2kaBP之间,内蒙古中部、西北东部在8kaBP开始温湿期,新疆地区在8-7.2kaBP从东到西开始了短暂的温湿期,并在6.5kaBP前后结束。6.5kaBP内蒙古东北部,6.4kaBP东北山地季风降水逐步减少,夏季风强度减弱,东北平原、内蒙古东部、黄土高原在6kaBP结束最暖湿期。由中全新世的暖湿期或者降水较多时期向晚全新世干旱环境的转变时间为,内蒙古中部在5-4.5kaBP,东北地区约在4.2kaBP,黄土高原西部在4.5-4.2kaBP,而黄土高原大部在3.1kaBP。
2.全新世东亚地区气候干湿变化的半定量重建
主要依据阿洪错湖泊沉积等六个高分辨率气候指标,对青藏高原南部、中国东部和蒙古地区的干湿变化进行半定量重建。高原南部在全新世里较为湿润,最湿润期在8-6kaBP, 6-5kaBP为季风降水逐渐减少的向晚全新世的过渡期,晚全新世变得偏干,显著干旱事件发生在4kaBP和2kaBP前后。中国东部黄河以南的典型东亚夏季风控制地区早全新世为增温增湿阶段,在8.0-5.5kaBP为最暖湿时期,晚全新世里最干旱。西风带控制区干湿变化幅度大,干湿期区别显著,最干旱期对应于季风区的最湿润期。
3.神农架大九湖地区孢粉一气候响应面函数的建立和古气候定量重建试验
利用神农架大九湖地区地表和地层孢粉样本,及700-2800m海拔高度上的七月平均温度、年降水量的观测值,在对表土孢粉作典型对应分析和强局部加权回归的基础上,建立了主要孢粉类型的响应面模型,并重建大九湖地区泥炭剖面约16kaBP以来的七月平均温度和年降水量曲线,讨论了不同孢粉组合的气候学意义。结果表明,稳定型孢粉组合一次响应面模型重建的七月平均温度和年降水量曲线,较好地反映了晚冰期以来大九湖地区的气候变化趋势,对博令—阿勒罗德暖期、新仙女木事件、全新世最适宜期和8kaBP、4kaBP降温等重要气候事件都有指示。重建曲线的温湿组合显示,大九湖地区的气候在早全新世和中全新世前半期温度较高降水量较大,为全新世最适宜期,与低纬度地区的记录较为一致。孢粉因子的敏感性分析揭示,木本植物含量大,对环境的变化响应较为稳定;草本和蕨类植物对气候变化反应敏感,显著地记录了极端气候事件。
4.代用指标反映的东亚地区2ka来气候温湿变化
树轮宽度指数显示青藏高原东北部在公元5、9和10-11世纪春季降水较多。石笋记录反映的中国西南和华中地区夏季风降水量,分别在2ka里最初的0.2ka和0.5ka及18世纪之后较大。蒙古高原地区湿润程度2ka来逐渐增大,其湿润期对应于华北地区的低温期,反映了区域气候变化的共同特点。各区域气候变化的位相对比表明,华南地区的冬季风增强对应于夏季风降水的减少,华北地区的温度的降低和台勒门湖地区的湿润程度的增加。即在冷期里各指标的变化具有一致性,表明,小冰期冷事件是普遍存在的,是2ka以来温度最低和夏季风降水最少的时期。中、低纬度地区和中、高纬度地区在中世纪暖期的表现上具有较大的不同,10-14世纪之间,青藏高原、中国东部和蒙古高原地区的暖期,存在位相的逐渐偏移,青藏高原的暖期出现最早,中国东部和蒙故高原的大部分地区,则是随纬度的降低越晚出现。增温幅度在低纬度地区最弱,高纬度地区最明显,中纬度地区居中。18世纪后中国东部温度升高的时空变化也有上述特点。
5.树轮宽度指标重建PDO指数
代用指标与PDO指数的相关分析表明,东亚地区气候的年代际变化与太平洋海温的年代际变化存在密切联系,这种联系在高纬度地区比低纬度地区更紧密。17世纪以来PDO指数的重建曲线表明,PDO指数存在明显的年代际变化特征,准20年周期尤为显著。重建的PDO指数变化幅度比实测值偏小,但仍然能够反映极端的PDO指数变化,重建序列在18世纪下半叶到19世纪初具有较大的波动振幅。重建结果可以与北美西部的树轮指数重建曲线相比较,具有较为一致的低频变化。史料记载揭示的东亚地区干湿变化和代用指标重建的PDO指数在年代际尺度上有较好的对应,华北和长江中下游地区的旱涝分别与PDO指数存在正、负相关关系,即PDO暖位相时,华北地区偏旱,长江中下游地区偏涝。
Based on analysis of the climate proxy data, reconstruction of the wetness in Tibetan Plateau, East China, and Mongolia Plateau are made; also the evolution and intensity of Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon are analyzed in millennial scale in Holocene. Quantitative reconstruction of mean July temperature and annual precipitation is based on both pollen percentage content from surface and stratum pollen samples and vertical meteorological observations across 700-2800m in Dajiuhu, Shennongjia. Finally, tree-rings are used to deposit the temporal and spatial changes in the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, and the annual PDO index are reconstructed. The major conclusions are as followings:
1. Evolution of Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon in Holocene.
Lake status and high resolution climate records depicted the millennial-scale variability of Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon. Indian summer monsoon strengthened at about 11.5 kaBP, and controlled the whole Tibetan Plateau at 0.5ka. Then, it spread through Southwest China, South China and Yangtze River catchment for 2-3ka. The wettest period ended at 9 kaBP in Qaidam Basin and western Tibetan Plateau, and about 8 kaBP in South China meanwhile Indian summer monsoon weaken in middle part of Tibetan Plateau. After 7 kaBP the monsoon front returned to mid-Tibetan Plateau from western part. Another millennial weakening took place at 6-5 kaBP in east and northeast of the Plateau, together with the ending of warm-wet period in middle part. There's a weakening event of summer monsoon at 2.5-2.4 kaBP from the records of Yidun Lake, Haiden Lake and Rencuo.
East Asian summer monsoon had arrived in Northeast China, middle Inner Mongolia and eastern Loess Plateau at 11.5 kaBP, which caused a short warm-wet climate period. It might reach eastern Loess Plateau and east part of Northwest China at 10 kaBP. Beginning of strong summer monsoon precipitation was at 9.8-9.4 kaBP in mountain area of Northeast China,9.2-9 kaBP in eastern Inner Mongolia,8.5 kaBP in middle and east part and 8.5-8.2 kaBP in western Loess Plateau,8 kaBP in middle Inner Mongolia and east part of Northwest China, and 8-7.2 kaBP from east to west in Xinjiang province. Ending of warm-wet period started in Northwest China at 6.5 kaBP, while at 6 kaBP in Northeast Plain, eastern Inner Mongolia and Loess Plateau. The transition of wet to dry was at 5-4 kaBP in middle Inner Mongolia,4.2 kaBP in Northeast China and western Loess Plateau, then 3.1 kaBP of Loess Plateau.
2. Reconstruction of humidity change in East Asia in Holocene.
Result of semi-quantitative reconstruction of humidity in southern Tibetan Plateau, East China and Mongolia showed that it kept wet in Tibetan Plateau in whole Holocene, and the wettest period occurred at 8-6 kaBP. After about 6-5 kaBP it turned dry. The severe aridity events appeared around 4 and 2 kaBP. The warmest and wettest period was 8-5.5 kaBP in East China, with a warming and wetting early Holocene and droughty late Holocene. There's the largest fluctuation of humidity in Mongolia, and it's in heavy drought condition when wettest age occurred in East summer monsoon controlling area.
3. Quantitative reconstruction of mean July temperature and annual precipitation in Dajiuhu, Shennongjia based on pollen-climate response surface.
Quantitative reconstruction was based on pollen percentage content from surface and stratum pollen samples and vertical meteorological observations across 700-2800m. Canonical correspondence analysis and robust locally weighted regression of surface pollen samples gave the relationship between plants and climate, which helped us to build the nine pollen-climate response surface models. Reconstructed results of the stable type assemblage depicted the climate evolution from Late Glacial period credibly, including the B(?)lling-Aller(?)d warm period, Younger Drays, climatic optimum, cold events of 8 and 4 kaBP. Combination of temperature and humidity illustrates that climatic optimum with high temperature and precipitation occurred during early-Holocene and former mid-Holocene. Sensitivity analysis of pollen factors revealed that woody plants with high quantity were insensitive to abrupt climate change, herb and fern were more sensitive to climatic fluctuation, and recorded the extreme climatic events remarkably.
4. Moistiness change in East Asia for past 2ka.
Climate records of tree-rings, icecores and stalagmites indicate the wetness change in northeast Tibetan Plateau, East China and Mongolia. Stronger winter monsoon in South China responded to the decreasing of summer monsoon precipitation, and cooling in North China could be compared with wetter period in Mongolia, which pictured the general Little Ice Age. Medieval Warm Period appeared early in Tibetan Plateau, then gradually late along latitude in East China and Mongolia. Warming trend was remarkable in high latitude and not significant in lower latitude area. Global warming after 18th in East China displayed similar characteristics.
5. Reconstruction of PDO index in terms of tree-rings.
There're significant relationship between interdecadal climate change in East Asia and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, especially in high latitude area. Reconstruction of PDO since 1613 AD showed the interdecadal characteristics of the semi-20yr period. Change of reconstructed PDO was smaller than that of observation, and represented acute fluctuation from later part of 18th to early 19th. Our result is comparable with other's that had similar low frequency changing trend. Historical records confirm the truth of the change of wetness in the catchments of Yellow River and Yangtze River, which showed negative and positive relationship to PDO index, respectively.
引文
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