汶川地震地面运动场估计及地震烈度与地震动参数相关性分析
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摘要
汶川地震是新中国成立以来所遭受的破坏性极强、涉及范围极广、抗震救灾难度极高的一次地震,这次地震在造成了极其严重的人员及财产损失的同时也留下了大量宝贵的震害调查资料,这为我们总结工程结构破坏规律、进行相关震害分析提供了坚实的基础。然而震害分析离不开地震动参数的输入,汶川地震中捕获的近断层强震观测记录很少且不同烈度区数量上分布很不均匀,这一情况给震害资料的分析及相关经验的总结带来了不少困难。如何充分利用汶川地震中有限的强震观测记录和烈度调查资料来对汶川地震地面运动场进行较合理的估计,继而为汶川地震中缺乏强震记录的地区的震害分析提供较合理的地震动参数输入是本文工作的重点,有鉴于此,本文以汶川地震地面运动场估计为核心,以各种地震动参数与地震烈度相关性分析为基础开展了以下4个方面的工作：
(1)汶川地震中,许多地区具有丰富的震害调查资料,但这些地区缺乏强震观测记录,如何合理的估计这些地区震害分析时所需的地震动参数输入是一个亟待解决的问题也是本文工作的核心。为此本文对汶川地震中具有明确烈度调查资料而缺乏强震观测记录的地区视为地震动参数估计点,鉴于上/下盘地震动的差异,将汶川地震地面运动场估计分为两个区域分别进行,在通过等效地震动参数衰减关系等方法的基础上,对汶川地震主要城市及地区的PGA、PGV及其0.3s、1s、3s的加速度反应谱谱值进行了估计,给汶川地震中缺乏强震观测记录的主要城市及地区提供了震害资料分析时所需的地震动参数输入,并绘制了PGA及PGV等值线。
(2)以发生在中国和美国的9次破坏性地震中捕获的部分加速度记录及其对应的烈度资料为数据源(共计226组三分量加速度记录),通过最小二乘法建立了16种地震动参数与烈度的一元回归关系式,并对比分析了16种地震动参数与烈度间的相关性。统计结果表明,16种地震动参数中,标准累计绝对速度与实际烈度的相关性较好。然而,即使采用与烈度相关性较好的标准累积绝对速度来计算仪器烈度,仍与实际烈度有着不小的差异,为此本文尝试了C2/16=240种不同地震动参数组合与烈度的多元回归模型来进行仪器烈度的判别,较大程度上提高了用地震动参数确定的仪器烈度与实际烈度相一致的比率,烈度识别正确率较好的参数组合是谱烈度和标准累计绝对速度。
(3)从本文的统计结果看,各种地震动参数的一元回归模型计算的仪器烈度与实际烈度的吻合程度不佳,而本文的核心工作需要利用地震动参数的衰减关系来估计汶川地震地面运动场,若直接用这样的参数进行地震动参数衰减规律的统计与分析,则很难得到理想的结果,为此,本文对参与统计的我国记录以其加速度反应谱特征周期为统计分组标准,继而统计了不同特征周期区间用一元回归模型计算仪器烈度时与实际烈度的累积误差,并对这种误差进行了相应的修正,修正过程中引入了等效地震动参数这一定义,用各种等效地震动参数确定的仪器烈度与实际烈度相一致的比率要高于对应的各种未经等效处理的地震动参数。
(4)考虑到利用等效地震动参数进行烈度识别时,仪器烈度与实际烈度相一致的比率较高,为此本文以汶川地震、汶川地震几次强余震中捕获的部分加速度时程记录为数据源,统计分析了16种等效地震动参数、16种地震动参数及35个周期点的加速度反应谱的衰减规律。统计结果表明,各种等效地震动参数衰减关系的拟合标准差比对应的未经等效处理的各种地震动参数要小。
The Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake-one of the greatest earthquakes which have occurred ever since the foundation of new China-covering wide area, caused large destructibility and brought high difficulty to emergency relief. Although the earthquake caused large loss of staff and property, it gave us valuable seismic damage research data of structures, baseing on which our structures seismic damage analysis is established. Because the analysis of structures seismic damage demands strong earthquake ground motion parameters, so the non-uniform distribution of ground motion stations in Wenchuan earthquake turns into a pity. How to estimate the value of ground motion parameters during the analysis of structures seismic damage data, which were collected in Wenchuan earthquake, by using the limited ground motion stations and relative rich seismic intensity materials is the emphasis of this paper. The research in this paper was carried out from four aspects, some conclusions can be drawn.
(1) After Wenchuan earthquake, many areas rich in earthquake investigation data came up, yet these regions are lack of strong earthquake observation records. How to reasonably estimate the value of ground motion parameters so as to deal with the analysis of these disaster areas becomes the core of this paper work, which also needs to be done urgently. This paper took these areas which is rich in earthquake investigation data but lack of strong earthquake observation records as the ground motion parameters estimation areas. In consideration of the differences of ground motion between the two sides of a fault, we divided the estimation region as two parts and analyzed them separately. Based on the attenuation relationship of equivalent ground motion parameter, we estimated the PGA、PGV and 0.3s、1s、3s spectral accelerations in Wenchuan earthquake areas. so that the value of ground motion parameters for the earthquake data analysis was provided. Besides, the PGA and PGV isolines were also shown in this paper.
(2) By collecting 226 three-component records from 9 earthquakes which occured in China and America as data resources and using the least square method, the correlation relationships between sixteen strong ground motion parameters and seismic intensity were presented. The results indicated that among the sixteen strong ground motion parameters analyzed in this study, cumulative absolute velocity and spectrum intensity were the best two parameters with the largest recognition rate, which could be used to predicate the instrumental intensity. According to the statistic results, the instrumental intensity determined by the model of univariate regression may sometimes have significant differences from the actual intensity, so the model of multiple linear regression between magnitude and different ground motion parameters combinations is established. The statistic result shows that the model of multiple linear regression has higher recognition correct rate in identification seismic intensity than the model of univariate regression. The combination of spectral intensity(SI0.2) and standard cumulative absolute velocity(CAVs) is the best ground motion parameter combination with the largest recognition rate, which could be used to predicate the instrumental intensity.
(3) In this article, most Chinese accelerograms come from the Wenchuan earthquake. The next main part work is to use these accelerograms to develop the attenuation relationship of different ground parameters in this area, but the instrumental intensity determined by these ground parameters is not in line with the actual intensity, so these accelerograms are divided into several groups by their characteristic period of response spectrum. The difference between instrumental intensity and actual intensity are calculated, and then the error was modified. In the process of the modification of the model of univariate regression, sixteen equivalent ground motion parameters are introduced. The instrumental intensity determined by the equivalent ground motion parameters have higher recognition correct rate in identification seismic intensity than the other ground motion parameters which have no equivalent processing.
(4) In consideration of higher recognition correct rate in identification seismic intensity determined by the equivalent ground motion parameters, attenuation relationships for 16 equivalent ground motion parameters,16 ground motion parameters and 35 spectral accelerations in Wenchuan region of China were determined by statistical analyses of acceleration records obtained in several destructive earthquakes and after shocks of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The results indicate that the fitting results determined by the equivalent ground motion parameters have smaller standard deviation than the other ground motion parameters which have no equivalent processing.
(1)汶川地震中,许多地区具有丰富的震害调查资料,但这些地区缺乏强震观测记录,如何合理的估计这些地区震害分析时所需的地震动参数输入是一个亟待解决的问题也是本文工作的核心。为此本文对汶川地震中具有明确烈度调查资料而缺乏强震观测记录的地区视为地震动参数估计点,鉴于上/下盘地震动的差异,将汶川地震地面运动场估计分为两个区域分别进行,在通过等效地震动参数衰减关系等方法的基础上,对汶川地震主要城市及地区的PGA、PGV及其0.3s、1s、3s的加速度反应谱谱值进行了估计,给汶川地震中缺乏强震观测记录的主要城市及地区提供了震害资料分析时所需的地震动参数输入,并绘制了PGA及PGV等值线。
(2)以发生在中国和美国的9次破坏性地震中捕获的部分加速度记录及其对应的烈度资料为数据源(共计226组三分量加速度记录),通过最小二乘法建立了16种地震动参数与烈度的一元回归关系式,并对比分析了16种地震动参数与烈度间的相关性。统计结果表明,16种地震动参数中,标准累计绝对速度与实际烈度的相关性较好。然而,即使采用与烈度相关性较好的标准累积绝对速度来计算仪器烈度,仍与实际烈度有着不小的差异,为此本文尝试了C2/16=240种不同地震动参数组合与烈度的多元回归模型来进行仪器烈度的判别,较大程度上提高了用地震动参数确定的仪器烈度与实际烈度相一致的比率,烈度识别正确率较好的参数组合是谱烈度和标准累计绝对速度。
(3)从本文的统计结果看,各种地震动参数的一元回归模型计算的仪器烈度与实际烈度的吻合程度不佳,而本文的核心工作需要利用地震动参数的衰减关系来估计汶川地震地面运动场,若直接用这样的参数进行地震动参数衰减规律的统计与分析,则很难得到理想的结果,为此,本文对参与统计的我国记录以其加速度反应谱特征周期为统计分组标准,继而统计了不同特征周期区间用一元回归模型计算仪器烈度时与实际烈度的累积误差,并对这种误差进行了相应的修正,修正过程中引入了等效地震动参数这一定义,用各种等效地震动参数确定的仪器烈度与实际烈度相一致的比率要高于对应的各种未经等效处理的地震动参数。
(4)考虑到利用等效地震动参数进行烈度识别时,仪器烈度与实际烈度相一致的比率较高,为此本文以汶川地震、汶川地震几次强余震中捕获的部分加速度时程记录为数据源,统计分析了16种等效地震动参数、16种地震动参数及35个周期点的加速度反应谱的衰减规律。统计结果表明,各种等效地震动参数衰减关系的拟合标准差比对应的未经等效处理的各种地震动参数要小。
The Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake-one of the greatest earthquakes which have occurred ever since the foundation of new China-covering wide area, caused large destructibility and brought high difficulty to emergency relief. Although the earthquake caused large loss of staff and property, it gave us valuable seismic damage research data of structures, baseing on which our structures seismic damage analysis is established. Because the analysis of structures seismic damage demands strong earthquake ground motion parameters, so the non-uniform distribution of ground motion stations in Wenchuan earthquake turns into a pity. How to estimate the value of ground motion parameters during the analysis of structures seismic damage data, which were collected in Wenchuan earthquake, by using the limited ground motion stations and relative rich seismic intensity materials is the emphasis of this paper. The research in this paper was carried out from four aspects, some conclusions can be drawn.
(1) After Wenchuan earthquake, many areas rich in earthquake investigation data came up, yet these regions are lack of strong earthquake observation records. How to reasonably estimate the value of ground motion parameters so as to deal with the analysis of these disaster areas becomes the core of this paper work, which also needs to be done urgently. This paper took these areas which is rich in earthquake investigation data but lack of strong earthquake observation records as the ground motion parameters estimation areas. In consideration of the differences of ground motion between the two sides of a fault, we divided the estimation region as two parts and analyzed them separately. Based on the attenuation relationship of equivalent ground motion parameter, we estimated the PGA、PGV and 0.3s、1s、3s spectral accelerations in Wenchuan earthquake areas. so that the value of ground motion parameters for the earthquake data analysis was provided. Besides, the PGA and PGV isolines were also shown in this paper.
(2) By collecting 226 three-component records from 9 earthquakes which occured in China and America as data resources and using the least square method, the correlation relationships between sixteen strong ground motion parameters and seismic intensity were presented. The results indicated that among the sixteen strong ground motion parameters analyzed in this study, cumulative absolute velocity and spectrum intensity were the best two parameters with the largest recognition rate, which could be used to predicate the instrumental intensity. According to the statistic results, the instrumental intensity determined by the model of univariate regression may sometimes have significant differences from the actual intensity, so the model of multiple linear regression between magnitude and different ground motion parameters combinations is established. The statistic result shows that the model of multiple linear regression has higher recognition correct rate in identification seismic intensity than the model of univariate regression. The combination of spectral intensity(SI0.2) and standard cumulative absolute velocity(CAVs) is the best ground motion parameter combination with the largest recognition rate, which could be used to predicate the instrumental intensity.
(3) In this article, most Chinese accelerograms come from the Wenchuan earthquake. The next main part work is to use these accelerograms to develop the attenuation relationship of different ground parameters in this area, but the instrumental intensity determined by these ground parameters is not in line with the actual intensity, so these accelerograms are divided into several groups by their characteristic period of response spectrum. The difference between instrumental intensity and actual intensity are calculated, and then the error was modified. In the process of the modification of the model of univariate regression, sixteen equivalent ground motion parameters are introduced. The instrumental intensity determined by the equivalent ground motion parameters have higher recognition correct rate in identification seismic intensity than the other ground motion parameters which have no equivalent processing.
(4) In consideration of higher recognition correct rate in identification seismic intensity determined by the equivalent ground motion parameters, attenuation relationships for 16 equivalent ground motion parameters,16 ground motion parameters and 35 spectral accelerations in Wenchuan region of China were determined by statistical analyses of acceleration records obtained in several destructive earthquakes and after shocks of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The results indicate that the fitting results determined by the equivalent ground motion parameters have smaller standard deviation than the other ground motion parameters which have no equivalent processing.
引文
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