面向时间过程的电网静态安全分析与日发电计划研究
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摘要
目前,对于电力系统经济运行,例如日发电计划的安排,均是基于等时间间隔的数据断面进行计算,未充分考虑负荷变化情况,经济效益有待进一步提高。而且,电力系统的经济运行通常仅考虑了完整网络时的安全性,对计及断线事故时的校正控制还缺乏进一步的研究。通常一次事故带来的经济损失,往往高于数年甚至数十年的经济运行效益,故必须重视系统的N-1安全。随着电力系统量测手段的不断更新、状态估计算法及负荷预测技术的进步,电力系统的分析计算可以获得更加精细、准确的断面数据支持,充分利用这些数据无疑会进一步提高电力系统的经济性和安全性。本文基于丰富的量测和负荷预测数据,运用面向时间过程的思想,对电力系统静态安全分析与优化进行了探讨,在提高电力系统安全性同时,保证系统的经济性。
首先,本文介绍了面向时间过程思想的基本理论和方法。综合考虑电力系统静态安全性和经济性,提出了改进的凝聚型分层聚类方法来对时间过程进行初步的划分。该方法计及了电力系统的运行特性,即电力系统各断面数据在时间上的连续性及各节点注入在空间上的分布特性,优于传统的等时间间隔静态划分方法。定义了提取各子过程最大特征断面、最小特征断面和中值特征断面的评价指标及方法。前两者跟电力系统的安全性紧密相关,中值特征断面能更加真实的反映时间过程内系统的整体负荷水平。
其次,在用改进的凝聚型分层聚类方法初步划分时间过程以及提取各子过程特征断面的基础上,本文阐述了面向时间过程的静态安全分析方法。提取了各子过程的虚拟最大特征断面。介绍了基于虚拟最大特征断面的多级预想事故选择与评定算法,实现对各子过程中的严重预想事故的快速筛选及排序。将系统N-1静态安全作为约束条件,以子过程内针对特征断面的控制策略一致有效性为原则,实现对相应子时间过程的进一步划分。
再次,针对传统日发电计划安排没有细致考虑负荷变化情况的不足,本文基于面向时间过程的思想,提出了一种计及负荷变化率的日发电计划安排方法。采用改进的凝聚型分层聚类方法对时间过程进行划分后,在负荷变化平稳时,子过程数量较少且持续时间较长,其中值特征断面更加接近系统的实际负荷水平;而在负荷急剧变化时,子过程数量较多且持续时间较短,其中值特征断面细致刻画了负荷攀峰降谷过程,为顺利渡越陡峭段落提供充足的缓冲时间。基于瓶颈序列分析,运用段落全局优化方法进行求解。同传统方法相比,在不增加计算量的前提下,取得了更为良好的优化效果。同时,发电机在各时段的有功输出更加平稳,利于同自发电控制系统的协调。
最后,综合考虑面向时间过程的静态安全分析及日发电计划安排方法,提出了面向时间过程的多发电计划方案。在安排日发电计划时,计及了系统的N-1静态安全,为可能发生的严重事故制定了控制预案。系统在满足经济性的同时,其运行的安全性得到进一步提高。
本文面向时间过程分析方法充分挖掘利用量测及负荷预测数据,详细分析了系统的状态变化情况,跟随系统状态的改变而制定相应的经济运行计划和安全控制策略。在保证系统安全性的前提下,提高了系统的经济效益。
At present, the economic operation of power system, such as the daily generation scheduling, is calculated based on the sections with equal time intervals. The changing trend of load curve is not considered thoroughly. There are still benefit margins for the economic operation of power system. Furthermore, the economic operation scheme usually is established under the condition of intact power network. The security of power network with the losing of one element and the corresponding correction control are lacking of further study. However, the expense brought by one emergency commonly is higher that the benefit gained by economic operation of several years. And enough attention should be paid to the N-1 security of power system. With the constant renewal of measuring approach, the improvement of state estimation method and the development of load forecasting technique, much denser and more accurate data will be provided for calculation. If the data is fully utilized, the economy and security of power system definitely will be promoted. Based on the abundant measuring and forecasting data, the paper makes some study on the power system static security analysis and optimization with the time-process oriented method. The economy of power system is guaranteed while the security is promoted.
Firstly, the basic theory and method of time-process oriented idea are presented. The improved agglomerative hierarchical clustering (IAHC), which synthetically considers the static security and economy of power system, is put forward to partition the time process preliminarily. IAHC takes into account the operation characteristics of power system, that is, all the data sections are in time sequence and the load injections distribute widely. And it is prior to the traditional partition method with equal intervals. The index to pick up the maximum section, the minimum section of each process is defined. And the way to get the mean section is introduced. The maximum and the minimum section are closely related to the security of power system in the process. The mean section of each process shows the load level that is much closer to the real operation state of power system.
Secondly, based on the time processes partitioned by IAHC and the characteristic sections extracted, the time-process oriented static security analysis is expatiated. The fictitious maximum section of every sub-process is distilled. Multi-level contingency selection and ranking method is implemented on the fictitious maximum section. And the serious contingencies of each sub-process are selected and ranked rapidly. While the N-1 static security is specified as constraint, the time processes are further partitioned according to the principle that the control schemes are feasible in the whole interval.
Thirdly, in allusion to the deficiency that the traditional daily generation scheduling roughly consider the load changing trend, the paper presents a novel daily generation scheduling that takes the load variation rate into account with time-process oriented method. During the periods of gentle load variations, the time processes partitioned by IAHC are fewer and last longer. And the mean sections extracted are closer to the actual load level of power system. By contrast, during the periods of abrupt load variation, there are more time processes with shorter time duration. And the mean sections depict in detail the load behavior in the pick-up and drop-down process and provide sufficient buffer time for power system to get through the critical peak and valley loads. Based on bottle neck analysis, the full-stage optimal algorithm is applied to make the daily generation scheduling. Compared with the traditional one, the method proposed attains better optimization effect without increasing any computational workload. Meanwhile, the active outputs of generation units are smoother in every time process and it is easier to coordinate with the automatic generation control (AGC).
At last, time-process oriented static security analysis and daily generation scheduling are considered integratedly. And a multi daily generation scheduling (MDGS) method is brought forward. MDGS takes the N-1 static security into account and establishes the predetermined correction schemes of the serious contingencies forecasted. The security of power system is promoted while the economy is satisfied.
The time-process oriented method adequately mines the measurement and forecasting data and makes careful analysis on the changing tendency of power system. In allusion to the changing state, the relative economic operation and correction control schemes are constituted. Under the condition of secure operation, the economic benefit of power system is increased.
首先,本文介绍了面向时间过程思想的基本理论和方法。综合考虑电力系统静态安全性和经济性,提出了改进的凝聚型分层聚类方法来对时间过程进行初步的划分。该方法计及了电力系统的运行特性,即电力系统各断面数据在时间上的连续性及各节点注入在空间上的分布特性,优于传统的等时间间隔静态划分方法。定义了提取各子过程最大特征断面、最小特征断面和中值特征断面的评价指标及方法。前两者跟电力系统的安全性紧密相关,中值特征断面能更加真实的反映时间过程内系统的整体负荷水平。
其次,在用改进的凝聚型分层聚类方法初步划分时间过程以及提取各子过程特征断面的基础上,本文阐述了面向时间过程的静态安全分析方法。提取了各子过程的虚拟最大特征断面。介绍了基于虚拟最大特征断面的多级预想事故选择与评定算法,实现对各子过程中的严重预想事故的快速筛选及排序。将系统N-1静态安全作为约束条件,以子过程内针对特征断面的控制策略一致有效性为原则,实现对相应子时间过程的进一步划分。
再次,针对传统日发电计划安排没有细致考虑负荷变化情况的不足,本文基于面向时间过程的思想,提出了一种计及负荷变化率的日发电计划安排方法。采用改进的凝聚型分层聚类方法对时间过程进行划分后,在负荷变化平稳时,子过程数量较少且持续时间较长,其中值特征断面更加接近系统的实际负荷水平;而在负荷急剧变化时,子过程数量较多且持续时间较短,其中值特征断面细致刻画了负荷攀峰降谷过程,为顺利渡越陡峭段落提供充足的缓冲时间。基于瓶颈序列分析,运用段落全局优化方法进行求解。同传统方法相比,在不增加计算量的前提下,取得了更为良好的优化效果。同时,发电机在各时段的有功输出更加平稳,利于同自发电控制系统的协调。
最后,综合考虑面向时间过程的静态安全分析及日发电计划安排方法,提出了面向时间过程的多发电计划方案。在安排日发电计划时,计及了系统的N-1静态安全,为可能发生的严重事故制定了控制预案。系统在满足经济性的同时,其运行的安全性得到进一步提高。
本文面向时间过程分析方法充分挖掘利用量测及负荷预测数据,详细分析了系统的状态变化情况,跟随系统状态的改变而制定相应的经济运行计划和安全控制策略。在保证系统安全性的前提下,提高了系统的经济效益。
At present, the economic operation of power system, such as the daily generation scheduling, is calculated based on the sections with equal time intervals. The changing trend of load curve is not considered thoroughly. There are still benefit margins for the economic operation of power system. Furthermore, the economic operation scheme usually is established under the condition of intact power network. The security of power network with the losing of one element and the corresponding correction control are lacking of further study. However, the expense brought by one emergency commonly is higher that the benefit gained by economic operation of several years. And enough attention should be paid to the N-1 security of power system. With the constant renewal of measuring approach, the improvement of state estimation method and the development of load forecasting technique, much denser and more accurate data will be provided for calculation. If the data is fully utilized, the economy and security of power system definitely will be promoted. Based on the abundant measuring and forecasting data, the paper makes some study on the power system static security analysis and optimization with the time-process oriented method. The economy of power system is guaranteed while the security is promoted.
Firstly, the basic theory and method of time-process oriented idea are presented. The improved agglomerative hierarchical clustering (IAHC), which synthetically considers the static security and economy of power system, is put forward to partition the time process preliminarily. IAHC takes into account the operation characteristics of power system, that is, all the data sections are in time sequence and the load injections distribute widely. And it is prior to the traditional partition method with equal intervals. The index to pick up the maximum section, the minimum section of each process is defined. And the way to get the mean section is introduced. The maximum and the minimum section are closely related to the security of power system in the process. The mean section of each process shows the load level that is much closer to the real operation state of power system.
Secondly, based on the time processes partitioned by IAHC and the characteristic sections extracted, the time-process oriented static security analysis is expatiated. The fictitious maximum section of every sub-process is distilled. Multi-level contingency selection and ranking method is implemented on the fictitious maximum section. And the serious contingencies of each sub-process are selected and ranked rapidly. While the N-1 static security is specified as constraint, the time processes are further partitioned according to the principle that the control schemes are feasible in the whole interval.
Thirdly, in allusion to the deficiency that the traditional daily generation scheduling roughly consider the load changing trend, the paper presents a novel daily generation scheduling that takes the load variation rate into account with time-process oriented method. During the periods of gentle load variations, the time processes partitioned by IAHC are fewer and last longer. And the mean sections extracted are closer to the actual load level of power system. By contrast, during the periods of abrupt load variation, there are more time processes with shorter time duration. And the mean sections depict in detail the load behavior in the pick-up and drop-down process and provide sufficient buffer time for power system to get through the critical peak and valley loads. Based on bottle neck analysis, the full-stage optimal algorithm is applied to make the daily generation scheduling. Compared with the traditional one, the method proposed attains better optimization effect without increasing any computational workload. Meanwhile, the active outputs of generation units are smoother in every time process and it is easier to coordinate with the automatic generation control (AGC).
At last, time-process oriented static security analysis and daily generation scheduling are considered integratedly. And a multi daily generation scheduling (MDGS) method is brought forward. MDGS takes the N-1 static security into account and establishes the predetermined correction schemes of the serious contingencies forecasted. The security of power system is promoted while the economy is satisfied.
The time-process oriented method adequately mines the measurement and forecasting data and makes careful analysis on the changing tendency of power system. In allusion to the changing state, the relative economic operation and correction control schemes are constituted. Under the condition of secure operation, the economic benefit of power system is increased.
引文
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