中国肉鸡产品国际贸易研究
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摘要
面对国内肉鸡产业发展中存在的问题、国际市场日趋激烈的竞争以及国外肉鸡产品对国内市场的冲击,以肉鸡产品国际贸易作为研究对象,分析中国肉鸡产业的发展现状、产品国际贸易特征,比较中国与肉鸡产品主要生产国、出口国的差异,分析中国肉鸡产业的国际竞争力,确定科学、合理、有效的WTO许可范围的国际贸易政策,显得尤为重要。
本文收集大量数据,利用统计描述分析方法结合计量经济模型模拟方法实证分析中国肉鸡产业的发展变化规律,对中国肉鸡产品价格变动规律和肉鸡产品的需求收入弹性进行了细致分析;建立了中国肉鸡产品进出口计量经济模型,模拟分析各主要影响因素对肉鸡产品进出口的影响,从进出口两方面系统分析中国肉鸡产品的国际贸易数量特征及其数量变动关系;用新的数据并结合美国对中国进行白羽肉鸡产品倾销深入分析中国肉鸡产业国际竞争力;并用数据分析了美国肉鸡产业的国际竞争优势和美国政府对肉鸡产业的支持。
研究结果表明:(1)中国肉鸡产业发展迅速。目前,中国肉鸡产品生产量、消费量居世界第二,进口量居于世界前列,出口量相对较小。中国肉鸡产品人均消费水平低,一定程度表明肉鸡产品国内市场具有较大发展潜力。(2)中国肉鸡产品出口市场单一,出口风险大。产品主要出口去向国(地区)为日本、香港,活鸡、鲜冷产品主要出口到香港、澳门地区,加工品主要出口到日本、欧盟、韩国以及香港地区,主要进口来源国为美国。近年来产品出口增速明显慢于进口增速。从2002年起,由过去的净出口国变为净进口国;2003年以后,出口从过去的以生肉制品为主转为以熟制品为主。(3)中国肉鸡产品进口主要受中国人口总数、人民币兑美元实际汇率变动和加入世贸组织后进口政策变化的显著影响。(4)中国肉鸡产品的出口受国内鸡肉生产供给量、人民币兑美元汇率变动、是否加入世贸组织因素(一定程度反映贸易政策的变化)和是否禽流感发生的显著影响。(5)中国肉鸡产业的国际竞争力较弱,近几年相对更弱。中国肉鸡产品世界市场占有率小;中国肉鸡产品显示性比较优势指数小且近年来一直呈下降态势;从2002年以来贸易竞争力指数由过去的正数转为负数。近年来美国以倾销的方式向中国大量出口肉鸡产品,对中国肉鸡产业的稳定发展造成极大冲击。(6)美国肉鸡产业具有较强的国际竞争力。美国肉鸡产业无论从技术、规模、产品价格、加工程度,还是从市场多元化开发等方面都具有国际竞争优势,这与美国政府对肉鸡产业从市场准入、国内支持、出口竞争等政策方面给予的大力支持是分不开的。
最后,提出增强中国肉鸡产业国际竞争力,促进中国肉鸡产业健康、稳定发展的政策建议,并指出今后进一步研究的方向。
Facing many problems of broiler industry of China, increasingly fierce international competition and the impact of foreign broiler products on domestic broiler industry, this paper chooses the international trade of broiler products as its research subject, and analyzes the current situation of Chinese broiler industry and its characteristic in international market, compares the differences between china and the world major producers and exporters of broiler products, analyzes the Chinese broiler industry's international competitiveness, and proposes reasonable policy recommendations within WTO regulations.
Based on large amounts of data, this paper studies the changing rule and development trend of broiler industry, then analyzes the price pattern of broiler industry as well as income elasticity of demand of broiler products in using analysis method that statistical describe analysis with econometric models simulation, and set up econometric models for exports and imports of china’s broiler products, simulates the impact of major factors on exports and imports of broiler industry, then studies quantity characteristics of international trade and quantity changing relationship from the aspects of China's import and export. With new data and combining with the case of US dumping white feather broiler products, the paper also analyzes the international competitiveness of Broiler products of China, and international competitive advantage of American broiler industry and American government’s support to broiler industry.
The results show that: (1) Broiler industry has developed rapidly in China. At present, the production and consumption of China’s broiler products rank second in the world. The import of broiler product of China ranks among the highest in the world, however the export of it is smaller. China’s consumption level of average per capita of broiler products is low, which shows that there is great potential for China’s broiler industry. (2) The export market for China’s broiler industry is single and risky. The products’major exported destination country (region) are Japan and Hong Kong, live broilers, fresh cold products are mainly exported to Hong Kong and Macao, processed products are mainly exported to Japan, EU, Korea and Hong Kong, the main source of imports is the United States. In recent years, the products export growth was slower than import growth. Since 2002, China has been shifted from the previous net exporter into a net importer for broiler products; and after 2003, it has been switched from the uncooked mainly in the past to cooked products in the recent. (3) The import of China’s broiler industry is mainly influenced by Chinese population, the actual exchange rate RMB against the U.S. dollar, and the import policy after the entry of WTO. (4) China's exports of broiler products are significantly affected by the domestic supply, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, whether to join the WTO (to some extent reflect the changes in trade policy) and whether the bird flu occurred. (5) The international competitiveness of Chinese broiler products is weak and even weaker in recent years. The market share of the world for Chinese broiler products is less; the revealed comparative advantage index of Chinese broiler products has been shown a downward trend in recent years, since 2002, trade competitiveness index has turned negative from the positive. In the recent years, the United States dumped a large number of broiler products to China, which caused great impact to the stable development of China's broiler industry. (6) No matter from broiler industry technology, scale, product prices, the degree of processing, or from market diversification development, the United States has all international competitive advantages, which is not divided from the market access, domestic support and export competition policy support from the United States government.
Finally, the paper proposes the policy recommendations for strengthening China’s international competitiveness of broiler industry and promoting the healthy and steady growth of china’s broiler industry, and points out study derection in the future.
本文收集大量数据,利用统计描述分析方法结合计量经济模型模拟方法实证分析中国肉鸡产业的发展变化规律,对中国肉鸡产品价格变动规律和肉鸡产品的需求收入弹性进行了细致分析;建立了中国肉鸡产品进出口计量经济模型,模拟分析各主要影响因素对肉鸡产品进出口的影响,从进出口两方面系统分析中国肉鸡产品的国际贸易数量特征及其数量变动关系;用新的数据并结合美国对中国进行白羽肉鸡产品倾销深入分析中国肉鸡产业国际竞争力;并用数据分析了美国肉鸡产业的国际竞争优势和美国政府对肉鸡产业的支持。
研究结果表明:(1)中国肉鸡产业发展迅速。目前,中国肉鸡产品生产量、消费量居世界第二,进口量居于世界前列,出口量相对较小。中国肉鸡产品人均消费水平低,一定程度表明肉鸡产品国内市场具有较大发展潜力。(2)中国肉鸡产品出口市场单一,出口风险大。产品主要出口去向国(地区)为日本、香港,活鸡、鲜冷产品主要出口到香港、澳门地区,加工品主要出口到日本、欧盟、韩国以及香港地区,主要进口来源国为美国。近年来产品出口增速明显慢于进口增速。从2002年起,由过去的净出口国变为净进口国;2003年以后,出口从过去的以生肉制品为主转为以熟制品为主。(3)中国肉鸡产品进口主要受中国人口总数、人民币兑美元实际汇率变动和加入世贸组织后进口政策变化的显著影响。(4)中国肉鸡产品的出口受国内鸡肉生产供给量、人民币兑美元汇率变动、是否加入世贸组织因素(一定程度反映贸易政策的变化)和是否禽流感发生的显著影响。(5)中国肉鸡产业的国际竞争力较弱,近几年相对更弱。中国肉鸡产品世界市场占有率小;中国肉鸡产品显示性比较优势指数小且近年来一直呈下降态势;从2002年以来贸易竞争力指数由过去的正数转为负数。近年来美国以倾销的方式向中国大量出口肉鸡产品,对中国肉鸡产业的稳定发展造成极大冲击。(6)美国肉鸡产业具有较强的国际竞争力。美国肉鸡产业无论从技术、规模、产品价格、加工程度,还是从市场多元化开发等方面都具有国际竞争优势,这与美国政府对肉鸡产业从市场准入、国内支持、出口竞争等政策方面给予的大力支持是分不开的。
最后,提出增强中国肉鸡产业国际竞争力,促进中国肉鸡产业健康、稳定发展的政策建议,并指出今后进一步研究的方向。
Facing many problems of broiler industry of China, increasingly fierce international competition and the impact of foreign broiler products on domestic broiler industry, this paper chooses the international trade of broiler products as its research subject, and analyzes the current situation of Chinese broiler industry and its characteristic in international market, compares the differences between china and the world major producers and exporters of broiler products, analyzes the Chinese broiler industry's international competitiveness, and proposes reasonable policy recommendations within WTO regulations.
Based on large amounts of data, this paper studies the changing rule and development trend of broiler industry, then analyzes the price pattern of broiler industry as well as income elasticity of demand of broiler products in using analysis method that statistical describe analysis with econometric models simulation, and set up econometric models for exports and imports of china’s broiler products, simulates the impact of major factors on exports and imports of broiler industry, then studies quantity characteristics of international trade and quantity changing relationship from the aspects of China's import and export. With new data and combining with the case of US dumping white feather broiler products, the paper also analyzes the international competitiveness of Broiler products of China, and international competitive advantage of American broiler industry and American government’s support to broiler industry.
The results show that: (1) Broiler industry has developed rapidly in China. At present, the production and consumption of China’s broiler products rank second in the world. The import of broiler product of China ranks among the highest in the world, however the export of it is smaller. China’s consumption level of average per capita of broiler products is low, which shows that there is great potential for China’s broiler industry. (2) The export market for China’s broiler industry is single and risky. The products’major exported destination country (region) are Japan and Hong Kong, live broilers, fresh cold products are mainly exported to Hong Kong and Macao, processed products are mainly exported to Japan, EU, Korea and Hong Kong, the main source of imports is the United States. In recent years, the products export growth was slower than import growth. Since 2002, China has been shifted from the previous net exporter into a net importer for broiler products; and after 2003, it has been switched from the uncooked mainly in the past to cooked products in the recent. (3) The import of China’s broiler industry is mainly influenced by Chinese population, the actual exchange rate RMB against the U.S. dollar, and the import policy after the entry of WTO. (4) China's exports of broiler products are significantly affected by the domestic supply, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, whether to join the WTO (to some extent reflect the changes in trade policy) and whether the bird flu occurred. (5) The international competitiveness of Chinese broiler products is weak and even weaker in recent years. The market share of the world for Chinese broiler products is less; the revealed comparative advantage index of Chinese broiler products has been shown a downward trend in recent years, since 2002, trade competitiveness index has turned negative from the positive. In the recent years, the United States dumped a large number of broiler products to China, which caused great impact to the stable development of China's broiler industry. (6) No matter from broiler industry technology, scale, product prices, the degree of processing, or from market diversification development, the United States has all international competitive advantages, which is not divided from the market access, domestic support and export competition policy support from the United States government.
Finally, the paper proposes the policy recommendations for strengthening China’s international competitiveness of broiler industry and promoting the healthy and steady growth of china’s broiler industry, and points out study derection in the future.
引文
1谭明杰、李秉龙:中国肉禽产业集聚现状以其主要影响因素分析,《中国畜牧杂志》,2010年,第46卷,第20期。3~7。
2 John H.Dyck and Kenneth E.Nelson. Structure of the Global Markets for Meat .USDA/ERS, 2003, p16~17.
7标准差系数=标准差/平均数,用来反映和比较指标值的变异程度。
8季节变动、循环变动、趋势变动和不规则变动成分之间是不独立的,相互之间有影响。
11人均消费数据来自于FAS/USDA,2009。
12不包括鸡爪。
13家禽包括鸡、鸭、鹅、火鸡、鸽子等,鸡肉占绝大比重,2005年中国鸡肉占比为69.16%,世界为87.00%(王寒笑,2008)
16注:商务部.《中国农产品出口指南—鸡肉制品》,2006年,第36页。
23《2009年全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》,国家发展和改革委员会价格司编,中国统计出版社,2009年7月。
25数据来源:《中国畜牧业年鉴2001》,《中国畜牧业年鉴2007》,《中国畜牧业年鉴》编辑委员会编,中国农业出版社。
28不包括鸡爪。
29朱信凯等,《中国肉鸡产业经济研究》,中国农业出版社,2007。
30数据来源于《中华人民共和国商务部关于原产于美国的进口白羽肉鸡产品反倾销调查最终裁定》。
31数据来源于《中华人民共和国商务部关于原产于美国的进口白羽肉鸡产品反倾销调查最终裁定》。
32资料来源于《中华人民共和国商务部关于原产于美国的进口白羽肉鸡产品反倾销调查最终裁定》。
数据来源:美国肉鸡协会(Ntional Chicken Council)、美国家禽蛋品出口协会(USAPEEC)。
33程国强.《WTO农业规则与中国农业发展》,中国经济出版社,2000年3月,38~47,257~259。
34陈阵.《美国农产品贸易政策研究》,博士论文,吉林大学,2009,第4页。
35李妍.美国新农业法中农产品贸易政策变化分析,世界农业,2009.10,29~32。
36陈阵.《美国农产品贸易政策研究》,博士论文,吉林大学,2009,第108页。
37陈阵.《美国农产品贸易政策研究》,博士论文,吉林大学,2009,第111~112页。
38参见:陈阵.《美国农产品贸易政策研究》,博士论文,吉林大学,2009,第119~121页。
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2 John H.Dyck and Kenneth E.Nelson. Structure of the Global Markets for Meat .USDA/ERS, 2003, p16~17.
7标准差系数=标准差/平均数,用来反映和比较指标值的变异程度。
8季节变动、循环变动、趋势变动和不规则变动成分之间是不独立的,相互之间有影响。
11人均消费数据来自于FAS/USDA,2009。
12不包括鸡爪。
13家禽包括鸡、鸭、鹅、火鸡、鸽子等,鸡肉占绝大比重,2005年中国鸡肉占比为69.16%,世界为87.00%(王寒笑,2008)
16注:商务部.《中国农产品出口指南—鸡肉制品》,2006年,第36页。
23《2009年全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》,国家发展和改革委员会价格司编,中国统计出版社,2009年7月。
25数据来源:《中国畜牧业年鉴2001》,《中国畜牧业年鉴2007》,《中国畜牧业年鉴》编辑委员会编,中国农业出版社。
28不包括鸡爪。
29朱信凯等,《中国肉鸡产业经济研究》,中国农业出版社,2007。
30数据来源于《中华人民共和国商务部关于原产于美国的进口白羽肉鸡产品反倾销调查最终裁定》。
31数据来源于《中华人民共和国商务部关于原产于美国的进口白羽肉鸡产品反倾销调查最终裁定》。
32资料来源于《中华人民共和国商务部关于原产于美国的进口白羽肉鸡产品反倾销调查最终裁定》。
数据来源:美国肉鸡协会(Ntional Chicken Council)、美国家禽蛋品出口协会(USAPEEC)。
33程国强.《WTO农业规则与中国农业发展》,中国经济出版社,2000年3月,38~47,257~259。
34陈阵.《美国农产品贸易政策研究》,博士论文,吉林大学,2009,第4页。
35李妍.美国新农业法中农产品贸易政策变化分析,世界农业,2009.10,29~32。
36陈阵.《美国农产品贸易政策研究》,博士论文,吉林大学,2009,第108页。
37陈阵.《美国农产品贸易政策研究》,博士论文,吉林大学,2009,第111~112页。
38参见:陈阵.《美国农产品贸易政策研究》,博士论文,吉林大学,2009,第119~121页。
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