城市化、集聚增长与中国区域经济协调发展
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摘要
区域经济协调发展是国家国民经济和社会发展“九五”规划纲要、“十五”规划纲要与“十一五”规划纲要的重要内容。协调区域经济是一个国家实现可持续、高效发展的前提和基础。目前,在学术界对区域经济协调发展还没有形成权威、规范的定义和判断标准,但结合中国的实际,加快落后地区发展,赶超并缩小与发达地区的差距是实现区域经济协调发展的关键。集聚和增长相互促进的关系已经在理论界得到广泛证实。但是,需不需要协调以及如何协调等问题一直没有形成共识。城市是集聚经济发展的产物,城市化对经济增长的重要贡献在于城市集聚会产生溢出效应,而溢出效应提升了创新能力。所以,城市化反映了经济增长水平,城市化水平的差异反映了地区经济发展差异。中国对城市化问题的研究是在十一届三中全会以后,仅从单方面研究城市化和工业化之间的关系还远远不足以解释现实问题。中央多次提出加快城镇化发展,把城镇化作为解决“三农”问题的关键,以推进城镇化带动区域协调发展。但是,如何推动城镇化发展也没有得到很明确的解释。本文试图从理论上解释区域经济协调发展的必然性,通过分析城市化、集聚增长与区域经济协调发展的内在关联机理,探索实现区域经济协调发展的有效路径。
本文以系统观为指导,将理论与实证相结合,微观与宏观相结合,内生因素和外生因素相结合,研究开放状态下区域差异形成的原因以及差距对经济增长的影响。本文试图以城市化与集聚、扩散的动态互动效应为基础,通过产业格局和空间格局的演变机制,再结合政府宏观调控来实现区域经济协调发展。从长江三角洲实现不连续点经济协调发展的成功经验中找到规律,多目标、多视角地分析区域经济一体化的形成条件和路径依赖。具体而言,本文结论主要包括以下几个方面：
(1)通过对城市集聚、收入差距和增长之间的关系分析,最后通过计算机模拟得出结论：集聚产生的经济差距和增长之间符合倒“U”型关系,城市集聚对收入差距的影响非常显著,但是通过资本溢出带来的技术转移和本地“干中学”效应可以加快落后地区的经济增长,缩小与发达地区的收入差距。该结论给我们的启示是：两地区距离遥远或者相对封闭时,资本溢出效应很小甚至为零,这时候收入差距与城市化水平有关,城市化水平高的地方收入也高。当处于经济一体化状态下,资本自由流动并且完全溢出,这时两地区无收入差距。如果前提条件是两个地区的城市化水平不相同,可以通过调节溢出程度来降低收入差距到某一位置达到均衡。结合中国的国情,要协调区域内部的差距,可以通过一体化的空间调整机制,例如城市群的组团发展,增加彼此溢出效应。如果是实现东西部区域之间的协调,一方面加快西部落后地区的城市化发展,提高城市集聚功能,推动产业结构升级,同时增强自身的“干中学”效应和对外来溢出效应的吸收能力,另一方面加强东西部之间的经济互动,通过产业转移和要素流动促进溢出效应向远距离的落后地区传播。
(2)本文构建一个以城市化为动力,以集聚-扩散机制为基础,以产业结构调整和空间结构调整为路径的分析中国区域经济协调发展的框架。一方面,城市化发展与集聚-扩散机制密切相关,城市化加快产业结构的升级和优化,发达地区的产业升级必然引起产业转移,影响其他地区的产业结构；另一方面,城市化发展到高级阶段会引起城市体系变化,产生城市群,整个城市群作为集聚中心能够产生更大的辐射范围。通过城市群网络体系的形成,进一步加强区域之间的沟通和联系。政府调控是为了保证所有机制顺畅运行,加速协调发展的进程。
(3)本文从动态角度分析,城市群一体化是在通信一体化、空间一体化、政策一体化的基础上形成的,其动力主要来自于微观的集聚和扩散效应、中观的产业发展和区域分工、宏观的政府协调和推动以及科技进步和环境改善。本文实证研究的结果表明区域工业化和区域城市化是一体化发展的前提和基础,政府、FDI、科教、环境、物流是影响城市群一体化进程的重要因素。空间相关性分析也证实了相邻城市之间存在互相影响和集聚发展的趋势。此外,本文还总结出城市群一体化发展的模式：在城市化发展初期,区域内部的发展差距很小,但是整体发展水平很低,随着城市化发展,中心城市快速崛起成为区域增长极,内部经济差距扩大,而整体发展水平提高,这一阶段可以看作是非均衡发展时期,当城市化发展到高级阶段,城乡一体化、产业一体化、空间一体化趋势逐步形成。
本文的创新点主要体现在：(1)建立模型说明城市集聚、收入差距与经济增长的联系,从而为以城市化为主线,通过集聚-扩散,资本溢出、城市体系演化促进落后地区经济增长,实现区域之间协调发展提供理论依据。(2)尝试通过城市化为桥梁将产业和空间这两个相对独立的研究体系纳入到同一个分析框架中。(3)详细论述了如何通过城市化推动区域经济协调发展,将城市、城市群的扩张与增长极理论与现实应用结合起来,探索实现区域经济协调发展的有效途径。
The coordinated development of regional economies is the important content of "Ninth Five-Year" Outline, "Tenth Five-Year" outline and "Eleventh Five-Year" Outline of China. The coordinated development of regional economies is the prerequisite and basis for China to realize sustainable and efficient development. Although the standardized definition and criteria of the coordinated development of regional economic has not been achieved yet in academic circle, speeding up the development of backward regions and narrowing the gap between regions will be helpful to realize the coordinated development. The mutually facilitated relationships between agglomeration and economic growth have been widely confirmed in theory. However, about the role of coordination in economic development and how to achieve coordination, people do not reach a consensus yet. Cities are the product of agglomeration economies, and the contribution of urbanization.to economic growth comes from the spillover effect of agglomeration economies. The degree of urbanization reflects the level of economic growth, and consequently the differences of urbanization level between regions reflect the differences of regional economic development. In China, the study about urbanization just began after the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee. At that time, the most studies only focused on the relationship between urbanization and industrialization and this is far from to resolve the existing problems. The Central Government has repeatedly called to speed up the development of urbanization and taken the urbanization as the key solution to resolve the "Agriculture, Countryside and Farmer" issue and to realize regional coordinated development. However, there are no very clear explanations about how to enhance the urbanization. This paper tries to elucidate the necessity of coordinated development in theory and find effective resolutions to realize coordinated development by exploring the inherent relationship of urbanization, agglomeration growth and coordinated development of regional economies.
This paper studied how regional differences were formed in an open system and its impact on economic growth. Based on the dynamic interaction among urbanization, agglomeration and diffusion, coordinated development of regional economies can be achieved through the special evolution mechanisms of the industrial and spatial structure, and the government's regulation. In China, the development of the Yangtze River Delta is a successful case of coordinated development of regional economies. We studied the mechanism by which the Yangtze River Delta was formed, and the conclusions were showed as following:
(1) Through analyzing the inherent relationship among urban agglomeration, income gap and economic growth, it was concluded that the relationship between the growth and income gap comply with inverse "U" curve. Urban agglomeration has very significant effects on income gap, and the urban agglomeration could accelerate the economic growth of backward areas through spillover effect of capital, consequently narrowing the income gap between regions. When distance between two regions is far enough or both are in different closed system, the spillover effect of capital is negligible. Under this condition, the income gap is related to the urbanization level, and high income results from high urbanization. When cities are in an integration system that means the capital can move freely and spillover completely, there is no income gap between regions. If the urbanization levels of two regions are different, we can minimize the income gap between them through adjusting the spillover degree. Combined with China's conditions, the gap within the region could be reconciled through the mechanism of spatial integration. To achieve coordinated development between the eastern and western region, on the one hand, we should speed up the urbanization of backward regions, and enhance agglomeration functions of cities, and upgrade the industrial structure, and improve its abilities of "learning by doing" and accepting "spillover effects" from other regions. On the other hand, we should strengthen the interaction between the eastern and western regions, and promote spillover of capital to the remote and backward regions through industrial transfer and the flow of production factors.
(2) This paper constructs a framework in which takes urbanization as power, agglomeration-diffusion mechanism as mechanism, the adjustment of industrial structure and spatial structure as pathway. On the one hand, urbanization is closely related to agglomeration-diffusion mechanism. Urbanization facilitates the upgrade and optimization of industrial structure, and the industrial upgrading in developed regions will inevitably lead to industrial transfer to backward regions which affects the industrial structure of backward regions. On the other hand, when urbanization develops to the advanced stage, the urban system will be changed and urban agglomeration comes up. As agglomeration center, urban agglomeration can exert its radiation effect in a larger scale. The formation of urban agglomerations network will further strengthen communication and contacts between regions. Government regulation is to ensure the smooth operation of all mechanisms, and consequently accelerate the process of coordinated development.
(3) From the dynamic perspective, the urban agglomeration integration is based on the communications integration, space integration and policy integration, and its power mainly comes from the agglomeration and diffusion effects, the industrial development and regional division of labor, government coordination, technical progress and environmental improvement. The empirical study showed that the regional industrialization and regional urbanization was the prerequisite and basis for integration development. The government, FDI, science, education and environment were the important factors to affect the integration process of urban agglomeration. Spatial correlation analysis also confirmed the interaction between the neighboring cities and the trend of agglomeration. This article also summarized the integrated pattern of urban agglomeration. At the early stage of urbanization, the gap within the region was small, but the overall development level was very low. Subsequently, along with urbanization, center city grows rapidly and becomes the regional growth pole, and the overall development of region is elevated. At the same time, the internal gap was enlarged. This stage could be considered as non-equilibrium development stage. Finally, when it developed to an advanced stage, the urban and rural integration, industrial integration and spatial integration are formed.
The innovation of this paper is:(1) we first constructed a model which elucidated the relationship of urban agglomeration, the income gap and economic growth, and provided the theoretical basis for the regional coordinated development. (2) This paper tried to take urbanization as a bridge to bring industry and space, two relatively independent research areas, into one analysis framework. (3) We elucidated the mechanism how urbanization facilitated the regional coordinated development and explored the new and effective pathway to realize the regional coordinated development through combining the expansion of urban agglomeration and "growth pole" theory with practical application.
本文以系统观为指导,将理论与实证相结合,微观与宏观相结合,内生因素和外生因素相结合,研究开放状态下区域差异形成的原因以及差距对经济增长的影响。本文试图以城市化与集聚、扩散的动态互动效应为基础,通过产业格局和空间格局的演变机制,再结合政府宏观调控来实现区域经济协调发展。从长江三角洲实现不连续点经济协调发展的成功经验中找到规律,多目标、多视角地分析区域经济一体化的形成条件和路径依赖。具体而言,本文结论主要包括以下几个方面：
(1)通过对城市集聚、收入差距和增长之间的关系分析,最后通过计算机模拟得出结论：集聚产生的经济差距和增长之间符合倒“U”型关系,城市集聚对收入差距的影响非常显著,但是通过资本溢出带来的技术转移和本地“干中学”效应可以加快落后地区的经济增长,缩小与发达地区的收入差距。该结论给我们的启示是：两地区距离遥远或者相对封闭时,资本溢出效应很小甚至为零,这时候收入差距与城市化水平有关,城市化水平高的地方收入也高。当处于经济一体化状态下,资本自由流动并且完全溢出,这时两地区无收入差距。如果前提条件是两个地区的城市化水平不相同,可以通过调节溢出程度来降低收入差距到某一位置达到均衡。结合中国的国情,要协调区域内部的差距,可以通过一体化的空间调整机制,例如城市群的组团发展,增加彼此溢出效应。如果是实现东西部区域之间的协调,一方面加快西部落后地区的城市化发展,提高城市集聚功能,推动产业结构升级,同时增强自身的“干中学”效应和对外来溢出效应的吸收能力,另一方面加强东西部之间的经济互动,通过产业转移和要素流动促进溢出效应向远距离的落后地区传播。
(2)本文构建一个以城市化为动力,以集聚-扩散机制为基础,以产业结构调整和空间结构调整为路径的分析中国区域经济协调发展的框架。一方面,城市化发展与集聚-扩散机制密切相关,城市化加快产业结构的升级和优化,发达地区的产业升级必然引起产业转移,影响其他地区的产业结构；另一方面,城市化发展到高级阶段会引起城市体系变化,产生城市群,整个城市群作为集聚中心能够产生更大的辐射范围。通过城市群网络体系的形成,进一步加强区域之间的沟通和联系。政府调控是为了保证所有机制顺畅运行,加速协调发展的进程。
(3)本文从动态角度分析,城市群一体化是在通信一体化、空间一体化、政策一体化的基础上形成的,其动力主要来自于微观的集聚和扩散效应、中观的产业发展和区域分工、宏观的政府协调和推动以及科技进步和环境改善。本文实证研究的结果表明区域工业化和区域城市化是一体化发展的前提和基础,政府、FDI、科教、环境、物流是影响城市群一体化进程的重要因素。空间相关性分析也证实了相邻城市之间存在互相影响和集聚发展的趋势。此外,本文还总结出城市群一体化发展的模式：在城市化发展初期,区域内部的发展差距很小,但是整体发展水平很低,随着城市化发展,中心城市快速崛起成为区域增长极,内部经济差距扩大,而整体发展水平提高,这一阶段可以看作是非均衡发展时期,当城市化发展到高级阶段,城乡一体化、产业一体化、空间一体化趋势逐步形成。
本文的创新点主要体现在：(1)建立模型说明城市集聚、收入差距与经济增长的联系,从而为以城市化为主线,通过集聚-扩散,资本溢出、城市体系演化促进落后地区经济增长,实现区域之间协调发展提供理论依据。(2)尝试通过城市化为桥梁将产业和空间这两个相对独立的研究体系纳入到同一个分析框架中。(3)详细论述了如何通过城市化推动区域经济协调发展,将城市、城市群的扩张与增长极理论与现实应用结合起来,探索实现区域经济协调发展的有效途径。
The coordinated development of regional economies is the important content of "Ninth Five-Year" Outline, "Tenth Five-Year" outline and "Eleventh Five-Year" Outline of China. The coordinated development of regional economies is the prerequisite and basis for China to realize sustainable and efficient development. Although the standardized definition and criteria of the coordinated development of regional economic has not been achieved yet in academic circle, speeding up the development of backward regions and narrowing the gap between regions will be helpful to realize the coordinated development. The mutually facilitated relationships between agglomeration and economic growth have been widely confirmed in theory. However, about the role of coordination in economic development and how to achieve coordination, people do not reach a consensus yet. Cities are the product of agglomeration economies, and the contribution of urbanization.to economic growth comes from the spillover effect of agglomeration economies. The degree of urbanization reflects the level of economic growth, and consequently the differences of urbanization level between regions reflect the differences of regional economic development. In China, the study about urbanization just began after the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee. At that time, the most studies only focused on the relationship between urbanization and industrialization and this is far from to resolve the existing problems. The Central Government has repeatedly called to speed up the development of urbanization and taken the urbanization as the key solution to resolve the "Agriculture, Countryside and Farmer" issue and to realize regional coordinated development. However, there are no very clear explanations about how to enhance the urbanization. This paper tries to elucidate the necessity of coordinated development in theory and find effective resolutions to realize coordinated development by exploring the inherent relationship of urbanization, agglomeration growth and coordinated development of regional economies.
This paper studied how regional differences were formed in an open system and its impact on economic growth. Based on the dynamic interaction among urbanization, agglomeration and diffusion, coordinated development of regional economies can be achieved through the special evolution mechanisms of the industrial and spatial structure, and the government's regulation. In China, the development of the Yangtze River Delta is a successful case of coordinated development of regional economies. We studied the mechanism by which the Yangtze River Delta was formed, and the conclusions were showed as following:
(1) Through analyzing the inherent relationship among urban agglomeration, income gap and economic growth, it was concluded that the relationship between the growth and income gap comply with inverse "U" curve. Urban agglomeration has very significant effects on income gap, and the urban agglomeration could accelerate the economic growth of backward areas through spillover effect of capital, consequently narrowing the income gap between regions. When distance between two regions is far enough or both are in different closed system, the spillover effect of capital is negligible. Under this condition, the income gap is related to the urbanization level, and high income results from high urbanization. When cities are in an integration system that means the capital can move freely and spillover completely, there is no income gap between regions. If the urbanization levels of two regions are different, we can minimize the income gap between them through adjusting the spillover degree. Combined with China's conditions, the gap within the region could be reconciled through the mechanism of spatial integration. To achieve coordinated development between the eastern and western region, on the one hand, we should speed up the urbanization of backward regions, and enhance agglomeration functions of cities, and upgrade the industrial structure, and improve its abilities of "learning by doing" and accepting "spillover effects" from other regions. On the other hand, we should strengthen the interaction between the eastern and western regions, and promote spillover of capital to the remote and backward regions through industrial transfer and the flow of production factors.
(2) This paper constructs a framework in which takes urbanization as power, agglomeration-diffusion mechanism as mechanism, the adjustment of industrial structure and spatial structure as pathway. On the one hand, urbanization is closely related to agglomeration-diffusion mechanism. Urbanization facilitates the upgrade and optimization of industrial structure, and the industrial upgrading in developed regions will inevitably lead to industrial transfer to backward regions which affects the industrial structure of backward regions. On the other hand, when urbanization develops to the advanced stage, the urban system will be changed and urban agglomeration comes up. As agglomeration center, urban agglomeration can exert its radiation effect in a larger scale. The formation of urban agglomerations network will further strengthen communication and contacts between regions. Government regulation is to ensure the smooth operation of all mechanisms, and consequently accelerate the process of coordinated development.
(3) From the dynamic perspective, the urban agglomeration integration is based on the communications integration, space integration and policy integration, and its power mainly comes from the agglomeration and diffusion effects, the industrial development and regional division of labor, government coordination, technical progress and environmental improvement. The empirical study showed that the regional industrialization and regional urbanization was the prerequisite and basis for integration development. The government, FDI, science, education and environment were the important factors to affect the integration process of urban agglomeration. Spatial correlation analysis also confirmed the interaction between the neighboring cities and the trend of agglomeration. This article also summarized the integrated pattern of urban agglomeration. At the early stage of urbanization, the gap within the region was small, but the overall development level was very low. Subsequently, along with urbanization, center city grows rapidly and becomes the regional growth pole, and the overall development of region is elevated. At the same time, the internal gap was enlarged. This stage could be considered as non-equilibrium development stage. Finally, when it developed to an advanced stage, the urban and rural integration, industrial integration and spatial integration are formed.
The innovation of this paper is:(1) we first constructed a model which elucidated the relationship of urban agglomeration, the income gap and economic growth, and provided the theoretical basis for the regional coordinated development. (2) This paper tried to take urbanization as a bridge to bring industry and space, two relatively independent research areas, into one analysis framework. (3) We elucidated the mechanism how urbanization facilitated the regional coordinated development and explored the new and effective pathway to realize the regional coordinated development through combining the expansion of urban agglomeration and "growth pole" theory with practical application.
引文
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24保证每一位置都至少有一个邻居的距离。
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34成长三角(GT:Growth Triangle)是由前新加坡副总理的吴作栋提出,当时是对由新加坡、马来西亚的柔佛州和印度尼西亚的廖内群岛组成的新—柔—廖三角形经济合作开发区的定义,后来得到亚洲开发银行经济学家的确认,认为：成长三角是包括三个或三个以上国家的、精心界定的、地理毗邻的跨国经济区,通过利用成员国之间生产要素禀赋的不同来促进外向型的贸易和投资。
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