基于收入变迁的城镇居民乘用车需求演化规律研究
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摘要
基于收入变迁的城镇居民乘用车需求演化规律研究
经济转型30年来,中国城镇居民的生活水平发生了巨大变化。一方面,城镇居民收入大幅提高带来消费行为的改变,食品消费支出的下降和大型耐用品拥有量的上升说明中国城镇居民的消费结构正在发生转变;另一方面,在整体收入水平提高的同时,收入分配差距的扩大成为导致中国城镇居民消费倾向下降的一个重要原因。此外,金融中介的迅速发展也改变了中国城镇居民的收入分配,进而对消费需求产生影响。中国经济发展的特殊背景使传统西方消费经济理论的一些外生的、稳定的假设在研究中国问题时出现争议。同时,针对中国城镇居民收入分配格局变化的研究仍处于起步阶段,鲜有文献对其内部的变化进行细致刻画。本文认为,可以抓住转型期间消费结构改变的特点,通过可以反映转轨特征的耐用品消费需求,探讨中国城镇居民收入与消费行为的关系。更进一步,在深入刻画收入变迁过程的基础上,考虑不同收入人群的人口密度变动对消费品需求的影响。
鉴于上述,本文希望从城镇居民收入变迁的视角出发,通过对传统消费理论的回顾和再探讨,研究收入变迁对以乘用车为例的耐用品需求结构的影响。主要研究内容如下:
本文第1章对传统的西方消费理论和分配理论进行概述,并在回顾和评述其应用成果的基础上,提出本文的研究问题和论文的结构设计。
本文第2章首先明确了收入变迁的概念,并对其度量指标进行细分定义,同时选用居民收入分布的核密度估计方法来形象的反应个体分布状况以及基本的变动规律。来自CHNS数据库1989年——2006年间7年微观数据的收入变迁估计结果显示,中国的改革和经济增长带来了总体福利的改善,但目前中低收入家庭仍是目前中国城镇居民的主体;不同收入等级的收入水平增长速度并不相同,收入的不平等程度正在加剧。对中国城镇居民的收入变迁状况进一步测度结果显示,近年来收入分配差距具有扩大的趋势特征;样本区间内对于城镇居民的影响主要源自于收入水平的提高和社会福利的改善;低收入群体并没有向更高的收入水平流动,而本应更难提高收入水平的高收入群体平均收入水平却有所提高。在收入分布变迁的背景下,中国城镇居民的消费行为发生了明显变化,其中以乘用车为例的耐用品需求增幅十分显著。
本文第3章利用中国1997年——2008年的省际面板数据,首先定性地描述了乘用车市场近年的发展情况,发现其呈现明显的非线性增长态势,且各地区基本上处于整体增长曲线的不同阶段。进一步,应用动态面板广义矩估计方法以及面板的VECM估计方法,估计了我国乘用车拥有率的餍足点约会出现在2025年——2030年间,相应的中国城镇居民乘用车拥有量将达到约15344万辆,人均收入水平约为65000~70000元。实证结果亦验证了居民收入增加是近年来中国城镇居民乘用车拥有量激增的根本原因。根据Gompertz曲线的数理特性按现阶段城镇居民收入水平推算,目前中国中国城镇居民乘用车拥有量刚跨过收入弹性拐点,开始步入迅速增长时期。
本文第4章探讨了新古典框架下一般消费品的跨期需求模型,将具有线性预算约束和完全市场假设的消费者行为的简单新古典需求模型推广到有耐用品的情形,进而得到可应用的耐用品新增需求模型。在定义了居民累积财富作为刻画特殊时期城镇居民当期购买能力的度量指标的基础上,针对样本区间内中国城镇居民累积财富水平在2007年末的明显变化,而乘用车购买则相对平稳的序列特征,采用趋势平稳的结构突变检验验证了累积财富水平在2007年10月结构突变点的存在性。进一步,采用Engle和Granger的两步法对城镇居民的累积财富水平和城镇居民乘用车购买进行变结构的协整分析得出,在不考虑结构突变的情形下累积财富与乘用车购买并不存在协整关系,但变结构的协整分析却表明两者之间存在变结构的协整关系。由于累积财富水平短期的突然变化通常并不会对乘用车整体购买决策产生显著的负向影响,立足于长期视角,累积财富对耐用品市场的影响终将是具有典型阶段性特征的。
本文第5章在探讨城镇居民收入变迁对分档次耐用品需求偏好的影响中发现,随着收入提高,消费者更偏好性价比较高的车型,高档车型的需求对收入变化的影响并不敏感;低、高收入人群平均收入水平的稳定上升以及人群比重的显著快速扩张,使其不论在购买力和购买数量上均有大幅提升,成为现阶段乘用车整体市场需求急剧增长的主要贡献因素;尽管如此,中收入人群才是导致拉动乘用车市场长期需求快速增加的稳定和持久动力。因此,在居民平均收入水平提高的前提下,努力提高低收入人群的平均收入水平,使更多低收入居民跨过购买临界值成为中收入居民,同时保证中收入人群的稳步增长,才是以拉动乘用车为例的耐用品消费需求增长的源动力。
The Evolution Laws of Demand for Cars of Urban Residents under the Perspective of Income Change
During the 30 years of China’s economic transition, the standard of living of urban residents in China has undergone tremendously changes. On one hand, the substantial increase in income of urban residents has brought changes in consumer’s behavior, food consumption expenditure has decreased and a large increase in ownership of durable goods per hundred families shows the consumption structure of urban residents in China is changing; on the other hand, with the overall income levels increasing, a widening gap of income distribution was an important reason which led to the propensity to consumption of Chinese urban residents declining. In addition, the rapid development of financial intermediation in China also changed the income distribution, and then had an impact on consumer demand. Some traditional theory of the western consumer exogenous and stable assumption is controversial under the special background of China’s economic development. At the same time, the research on the pattern of Chinese residents’income distribution changes was still in its infancy, and little detailed characterization has done on its internal changes. Based on consumer durables consumption behavior reflecting China’s transition characteristics, this dissertation focused on the characteristics of the changes in consumption structure during transition period. A further study was to explore the effects on consumption demand by different income classes’changes which based on the dynamic evolution of income distribution.
In view of the above-mentioned facts, from the perspective of income distribution, the research hope to discuss the effects on the consumer durables by income distribution changes and consider the automobiles as an example, through the review of traditional consumption and income distribution theory. The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
Chapter 1 summarized the western traditional consumption theory and income distribution theory firstly. Secondly, based on the overview and comment of the application, the problems of this dissertation and design of its structure are propounded.
In chapter 2, we defined index indicators to describe the purchasing power of urban residents and the special characteristics of the total income, while using kernel density to estimate income distribution and basic law vividly. And then, focuses on the income distribution dynamic changes of China’s urban residents based on the micro household survey data provided by CHNS. The empirical results show that, firstly, the income distribution estimation on CHNS database from 1989——2006 shows that, due to the China’s reform and economic growth, the social welfare has got a promotion. However, the mid&low income families are still the main part of China’s urban residents. Furthermore, the growth speed of different income group is varied which aggravates the inequality degree. Secondly, in the analysis process of the income distribution’s liquidity, despite the proportion of the low income group has always been on decline, mid income group reduced recently revealed the extended tend of income gap. During the decomposition of income changes, the improvement in income level and social welfare has the mainly impact on urban residents, at the same time, low&high income group gathering and mid income group reducing are caused by existence of interval heterogeneous. Due to the inequality, low income group didn’t flow to a higher income level while there is unexpected increasing in high income group which should be more difficult. Finally, the consumer’s behavior changed with the income distribution transformation, which induced to the sudden and sharp demand for durable goods.
In chapter 3, the provincial panel data of China from 1997 to 2008 are used to describe the development of national automobile market qualitatively which appears a obvious non-linear growth path and stays at the different stage of growth curve with regions varied. Furthermore, the estimation result shows that the satiation point will be achieved around 2025 to 2030, and the corresponding automobiles ownership will rise to about 153.44 million with the disposable income level at 65000 to 70000 Yuan by using the method of dynamic GMM and panel ECM. These empirical results also demonstrate that rapid increasing in urban residents’income level is the main reason of the significant growth in automobile market in recent years. According to it, the current family car ownership is just across the elasticity point of long-run growth curve and has entered a rapid growth period.
Chapter 4 discussed the general intertemporal consumption demand model under the neoclassical framework, and then extended the simple neoclassical model with linear budget constraints and complete market assumptions of consumer behavior to the case of durable goods. Finally, we got the applied durable goods demand model. Because there is obvious influence of China’s urban residents’accumulated wealth at late 2007 in samples, while demand for automobiles purchasing is a relative stationary serie, the theory of structural breaks is used to verify the structural break point in September 2007. Later on the cointegration analysis on accumulated wealth and automobile demand by utilizing the Engle and Granger two-step method shows that there is no cointegration relationship between them without considering the structural breaks, however, variable structure cointegration analysis proved the contrary facts. Actually, from long-term perspective, the sudden changes of accumulated wealth index have little significant negative impact on the automobiles purchasing decision, and the effects on the durable goods market will be very limited eventually.
Chapter 5 studied the effects on the sub-grade durable goods demand by income distribution changes of China’s urban residents. The empirical evidence shows that, first, because of the improvement in income level, most consumers prefer high quality with lower cost cars, but the demand for high-grade cars doesn’t rise and fall sensitively with it. Second, there is a significant promoting in both purchasing power and purchasing quantity which gives a rise to low&high grade residents’average income level and group proportion, which is the primary source of the growth in overall automobiles market. Nevertheless, mid income group is the stable and sustainable diver of automobiles demand. Therefore, in a spirit of raising income level of the whole nation, enhancing the low-grade income level and ensuring increasing and steady proportion of mid income group is the source power which can lead to growth of automobiles consumption demand in China.
经济转型30年来,中国城镇居民的生活水平发生了巨大变化。一方面,城镇居民收入大幅提高带来消费行为的改变,食品消费支出的下降和大型耐用品拥有量的上升说明中国城镇居民的消费结构正在发生转变;另一方面,在整体收入水平提高的同时,收入分配差距的扩大成为导致中国城镇居民消费倾向下降的一个重要原因。此外,金融中介的迅速发展也改变了中国城镇居民的收入分配,进而对消费需求产生影响。中国经济发展的特殊背景使传统西方消费经济理论的一些外生的、稳定的假设在研究中国问题时出现争议。同时,针对中国城镇居民收入分配格局变化的研究仍处于起步阶段,鲜有文献对其内部的变化进行细致刻画。本文认为,可以抓住转型期间消费结构改变的特点,通过可以反映转轨特征的耐用品消费需求,探讨中国城镇居民收入与消费行为的关系。更进一步,在深入刻画收入变迁过程的基础上,考虑不同收入人群的人口密度变动对消费品需求的影响。
鉴于上述,本文希望从城镇居民收入变迁的视角出发,通过对传统消费理论的回顾和再探讨,研究收入变迁对以乘用车为例的耐用品需求结构的影响。主要研究内容如下:
本文第1章对传统的西方消费理论和分配理论进行概述,并在回顾和评述其应用成果的基础上,提出本文的研究问题和论文的结构设计。
本文第2章首先明确了收入变迁的概念,并对其度量指标进行细分定义,同时选用居民收入分布的核密度估计方法来形象的反应个体分布状况以及基本的变动规律。来自CHNS数据库1989年——2006年间7年微观数据的收入变迁估计结果显示,中国的改革和经济增长带来了总体福利的改善,但目前中低收入家庭仍是目前中国城镇居民的主体;不同收入等级的收入水平增长速度并不相同,收入的不平等程度正在加剧。对中国城镇居民的收入变迁状况进一步测度结果显示,近年来收入分配差距具有扩大的趋势特征;样本区间内对于城镇居民的影响主要源自于收入水平的提高和社会福利的改善;低收入群体并没有向更高的收入水平流动,而本应更难提高收入水平的高收入群体平均收入水平却有所提高。在收入分布变迁的背景下,中国城镇居民的消费行为发生了明显变化,其中以乘用车为例的耐用品需求增幅十分显著。
本文第3章利用中国1997年——2008年的省际面板数据,首先定性地描述了乘用车市场近年的发展情况,发现其呈现明显的非线性增长态势,且各地区基本上处于整体增长曲线的不同阶段。进一步,应用动态面板广义矩估计方法以及面板的VECM估计方法,估计了我国乘用车拥有率的餍足点约会出现在2025年——2030年间,相应的中国城镇居民乘用车拥有量将达到约15344万辆,人均收入水平约为65000~70000元。实证结果亦验证了居民收入增加是近年来中国城镇居民乘用车拥有量激增的根本原因。根据Gompertz曲线的数理特性按现阶段城镇居民收入水平推算,目前中国中国城镇居民乘用车拥有量刚跨过收入弹性拐点,开始步入迅速增长时期。
本文第4章探讨了新古典框架下一般消费品的跨期需求模型,将具有线性预算约束和完全市场假设的消费者行为的简单新古典需求模型推广到有耐用品的情形,进而得到可应用的耐用品新增需求模型。在定义了居民累积财富作为刻画特殊时期城镇居民当期购买能力的度量指标的基础上,针对样本区间内中国城镇居民累积财富水平在2007年末的明显变化,而乘用车购买则相对平稳的序列特征,采用趋势平稳的结构突变检验验证了累积财富水平在2007年10月结构突变点的存在性。进一步,采用Engle和Granger的两步法对城镇居民的累积财富水平和城镇居民乘用车购买进行变结构的协整分析得出,在不考虑结构突变的情形下累积财富与乘用车购买并不存在协整关系,但变结构的协整分析却表明两者之间存在变结构的协整关系。由于累积财富水平短期的突然变化通常并不会对乘用车整体购买决策产生显著的负向影响,立足于长期视角,累积财富对耐用品市场的影响终将是具有典型阶段性特征的。
本文第5章在探讨城镇居民收入变迁对分档次耐用品需求偏好的影响中发现,随着收入提高,消费者更偏好性价比较高的车型,高档车型的需求对收入变化的影响并不敏感;低、高收入人群平均收入水平的稳定上升以及人群比重的显著快速扩张,使其不论在购买力和购买数量上均有大幅提升,成为现阶段乘用车整体市场需求急剧增长的主要贡献因素;尽管如此,中收入人群才是导致拉动乘用车市场长期需求快速增加的稳定和持久动力。因此,在居民平均收入水平提高的前提下,努力提高低收入人群的平均收入水平,使更多低收入居民跨过购买临界值成为中收入居民,同时保证中收入人群的稳步增长,才是以拉动乘用车为例的耐用品消费需求增长的源动力。
The Evolution Laws of Demand for Cars of Urban Residents under the Perspective of Income Change
During the 30 years of China’s economic transition, the standard of living of urban residents in China has undergone tremendously changes. On one hand, the substantial increase in income of urban residents has brought changes in consumer’s behavior, food consumption expenditure has decreased and a large increase in ownership of durable goods per hundred families shows the consumption structure of urban residents in China is changing; on the other hand, with the overall income levels increasing, a widening gap of income distribution was an important reason which led to the propensity to consumption of Chinese urban residents declining. In addition, the rapid development of financial intermediation in China also changed the income distribution, and then had an impact on consumer demand. Some traditional theory of the western consumer exogenous and stable assumption is controversial under the special background of China’s economic development. At the same time, the research on the pattern of Chinese residents’income distribution changes was still in its infancy, and little detailed characterization has done on its internal changes. Based on consumer durables consumption behavior reflecting China’s transition characteristics, this dissertation focused on the characteristics of the changes in consumption structure during transition period. A further study was to explore the effects on consumption demand by different income classes’changes which based on the dynamic evolution of income distribution.
In view of the above-mentioned facts, from the perspective of income distribution, the research hope to discuss the effects on the consumer durables by income distribution changes and consider the automobiles as an example, through the review of traditional consumption and income distribution theory. The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
Chapter 1 summarized the western traditional consumption theory and income distribution theory firstly. Secondly, based on the overview and comment of the application, the problems of this dissertation and design of its structure are propounded.
In chapter 2, we defined index indicators to describe the purchasing power of urban residents and the special characteristics of the total income, while using kernel density to estimate income distribution and basic law vividly. And then, focuses on the income distribution dynamic changes of China’s urban residents based on the micro household survey data provided by CHNS. The empirical results show that, firstly, the income distribution estimation on CHNS database from 1989——2006 shows that, due to the China’s reform and economic growth, the social welfare has got a promotion. However, the mid&low income families are still the main part of China’s urban residents. Furthermore, the growth speed of different income group is varied which aggravates the inequality degree. Secondly, in the analysis process of the income distribution’s liquidity, despite the proportion of the low income group has always been on decline, mid income group reduced recently revealed the extended tend of income gap. During the decomposition of income changes, the improvement in income level and social welfare has the mainly impact on urban residents, at the same time, low&high income group gathering and mid income group reducing are caused by existence of interval heterogeneous. Due to the inequality, low income group didn’t flow to a higher income level while there is unexpected increasing in high income group which should be more difficult. Finally, the consumer’s behavior changed with the income distribution transformation, which induced to the sudden and sharp demand for durable goods.
In chapter 3, the provincial panel data of China from 1997 to 2008 are used to describe the development of national automobile market qualitatively which appears a obvious non-linear growth path and stays at the different stage of growth curve with regions varied. Furthermore, the estimation result shows that the satiation point will be achieved around 2025 to 2030, and the corresponding automobiles ownership will rise to about 153.44 million with the disposable income level at 65000 to 70000 Yuan by using the method of dynamic GMM and panel ECM. These empirical results also demonstrate that rapid increasing in urban residents’income level is the main reason of the significant growth in automobile market in recent years. According to it, the current family car ownership is just across the elasticity point of long-run growth curve and has entered a rapid growth period.
Chapter 4 discussed the general intertemporal consumption demand model under the neoclassical framework, and then extended the simple neoclassical model with linear budget constraints and complete market assumptions of consumer behavior to the case of durable goods. Finally, we got the applied durable goods demand model. Because there is obvious influence of China’s urban residents’accumulated wealth at late 2007 in samples, while demand for automobiles purchasing is a relative stationary serie, the theory of structural breaks is used to verify the structural break point in September 2007. Later on the cointegration analysis on accumulated wealth and automobile demand by utilizing the Engle and Granger two-step method shows that there is no cointegration relationship between them without considering the structural breaks, however, variable structure cointegration analysis proved the contrary facts. Actually, from long-term perspective, the sudden changes of accumulated wealth index have little significant negative impact on the automobiles purchasing decision, and the effects on the durable goods market will be very limited eventually.
Chapter 5 studied the effects on the sub-grade durable goods demand by income distribution changes of China’s urban residents. The empirical evidence shows that, first, because of the improvement in income level, most consumers prefer high quality with lower cost cars, but the demand for high-grade cars doesn’t rise and fall sensitively with it. Second, there is a significant promoting in both purchasing power and purchasing quantity which gives a rise to low&high grade residents’average income level and group proportion, which is the primary source of the growth in overall automobiles market. Nevertheless, mid income group is the stable and sustainable diver of automobiles demand. Therefore, in a spirit of raising income level of the whole nation, enhancing the low-grade income level and ensuring increasing and steady proportion of mid income group is the source power which can lead to growth of automobiles consumption demand in China.
引文
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