产业转移背景下产业集群升级问题研究
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摘要
改变我国区域东中西部相对脱离、独立发展的格局,促进区域经济的融合与发展是扩大内需、缩小东中西部差距的需要,也是实现经济发展方式转变的需要。在经济全球化和信息化的背景下,国际和区际产业转移迅猛发展。作为介于市场和企业之间的一种网络型产业组织形态,产业集群已经成为推动我国外向型经济发展与提升区域产业竞争力的重要载体。随着国际和区际产业转移规模的扩大,产业转移对不同区域产业集群升级的影响如何?浙江等东部相对发达的区域会不会出现产业空心化?其产业集群升级和产业转移的动因和模式究竟如何?东部地区又如何在顺应产业转移的趋势下实现本地产业集群的有效升级?本文围绕以上问题对产业转移背景下产业集群升级进行系统研究。对前三个问题的回答是一个实证问题,对第四个问题的回答则是一个政策问题。
通过理论分析和实证研究,本文得出以下几个结论：
(1)集群效应和沉没成本导致的产业转移粘性因素会极大地影响产业集群的升级。一个地区的产业转移和集群升级模式由其综合比较优势演化路径所决定。由于不同地区的要素资源禀赋、产业结构及各种环境约束条件的不同,其未来的演化路径会有所差异。综合比较优势演化和产业集群升级的路径不一定是线性和连续的,常常表现为非线性演化,在实现升级的过程中很可能会出现“分岔”。实证研究表明：产业转移粘性对集群升级具有显著的正面影响,这是当前产业转移阶段的特征反应,即我国经济还没有实质面临刘易斯拐点到来的情况下,具有劳动力吸纳功能的集群效应成为产业转移粘性的主导因素,从而对集群升级有显著的正面影响,而沉没成本效应导致的负面影响尚不显著,但是加入滞后一年的专利量对数值的回归表明产业转移粘性的影响虽然仍然为正向,但已经在统计上不显著了。这说明从长期动态的角度看,集群效应导致的产业转移粘性在弱化,而沉没成本效应导致的产业转移粘性的负面影响将会愈加明显,从而倒逼浙江产业集群加快升级步伐。另外,除金融业有显著影响外,以物流业为典型代表的生产性服务业的发展尚不足以支撑浙江集群的有效升级。故应加快发展生产性服务业如物流、金融、营销系统控制及文化创意产业等,尤其是服务外包产业,以支持浙江产业集群的有效升级。
(2)产业转移中不同经济主体具有主动性和适应性。在中国现行体制环境下,产业转移中的企业和地方政府行为经常陷入“囚徒困境”,偏重于经济增长导向的绩效考核机制与任期限制是导致产业转移中各区域不配合的重要原因之
从长远趋势看,理性区域合作具有必然性,产业转移成为推动区域协调发展实现包容性增长的战略选择。但仅有中央政府的产业转移政策是不够的,还需要建立具体的区域产业协调模式和机制,并进行一系列的制度创新才能提高产业转移政策的效果,实现产业结构调整与优化的目标。从全国层面看,区域产业转移尚未出现大面积的跨行政区发展态势,省内转移仍是主流。区域产业转移的流向遵循距离衰减规律,而且大部分是就近转移。我国的产业转移往往是由于企业内部交易成本上升或国家政策的调整、劳动力和土地价格上涨以及环境污染规制、市场需求变化等引起。庞大的人口基数和巨额的农村人口表明中国农村剩余劳动力转移仍然是长期趋势,“刘易斯拐点”尚未实质性到来,因为中国区域之间仍然存在着较大的生产要素价格和劳动生产率差异。
(3)产业集群作为一个复杂的非线性系统,其动态演化有其内在的规律,集群发展中的路径依赖有可能导致产业集群的锁定或衰落,其稳定性受到产业转移的重大影响。在线性空间中,厂商间的古诺竞争会引起空间集聚；而厂商间的伯川德竞争导致部分产业空间转移。产品差异化程度的提高能够降低需求的价格弹性,降低竞争强度,促进产业集群实现有效升级和可持续发展。由消费者多样化需求驱动的对生产性服务业的引致需求能够提高产业集群内各协作企业的生产经营效率,加快发展生产性服务业可以有效支撑产业集群的升级。从演化的视角看,由于浙江严重缺乏资源,从而使得浙江成为我国产业转移的最典型转出地,其综合比较优势在于其制度创新和机制创新带来的协同优势。实证分析表明浙江大部分制造业的区位熵值均大于1,说明其制造业竞争力较强。总体上看,浙江集群式转移已经渐成规模,但产业转移粘性明显。成本因素和市场因素是浙江产业转移的两大主导动力；产业转移的方式较为多元,但主要属于增量式转移。从安徽皖江等产业承接方来看,转移来的企业主体不仅包括国内企业,外商投资企业的比重也很高,说明东部发展外向型经济的模式有可能复制到中西部地区。
总体而言,既有的产业集群升级研究大多基于竞争力和全球价值链模式,较少结合产业转移来进行动态视角的系统分析。本论文在清晰界定相关概念的基础上,结合中国的国情提出了一个基于综合比较优势演化的产业集群升级和产业转移的推拉理论框架,并分析了产业集群演化的动态路径和产业转移中的企业与地方政府双层次博弈关系,然后基于在浙江各地和安徽皖江地区的实地调研分析和对统计资料的计量经济实证回答了产业转移的动力、模式和机制以及对产业集群升级的具体影响,最后提出了促进产业集群升级和产业有序转移的政策举措和实施路径。
Changes of independent development pattern between central and western regions and the coastal parts can not only promote regional economic integration and linkages, and expand domestic demand and narrow the gap between diffeent regions, but also are the urgent needs of tansisition the of economic development mode. In the context of economic globalization and development of information technology, international and interregional industries shift rapidly developed. As a form of network-type industrial organization between markets and enterprises, industrial clusters have become the importance of the regional carrier to promote China's export-oriented economic development and industrial competitiveness enhance. With the expansion of international and interregional industrial relocation, what is the impact of industrial relocation on upgrading industrial clusters in different regions? Zhejiang and other relatively developed eastern regions will appear hollowing out of industries? What is the driving force and mode of industrial relocation? How to upgrade local industrial clusters of eastern regions in the context of industrial relocation? This paper focuses on these issues on the upgrading of industry cluster and industrial relocation. To answer these questions which are highly related with policy issue, we need to do empirical study and case study based on solid theoretical foundation.
Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, this article got the following conclusions:
(1) Cluster effects and sunk costs led to the stickiness of industrial relocation; which will greatly affect the viscosity of industrial clusters upgrade. The path of industrial relocation and local industry cluster upgrading is determined by the evolution of its comprehensive comparative advantage. Because different regions have different industrial structure and various elements of resource and environmental constraints, the different evolutionary path will differ greatly in the future. Integrated evolution of comparative advantage and industrial clusters upgrade path is not necessarily linear and continuous, often engendered nonlinear evolution, in the process of the upgrading, the realization is likely to be a "bifurcation". Empirical research shows that:the stickiness of industrial relocation has a significant positive impact on industrial cluster upgrade; and this is because the current phase characteristics of reaction on industrial relocation. Now our country has no real face on Lewis turning point situations, so cluster effects with positive labor attraction function are significant for the stickiness of industrial relocation, while the sunk cost effect is not due to a significant negative impact, but joined the one-year lagged value of the patent in the regression model, the industrial relocation effect is still positive but already not significant statistically. This shows that from the perspective of long-term dynamics, the stickiness of industrial relocation due to cluster effect is weakening, while stickiness of industrial relocation resulting from the negative effect of sunk costs will be more obvious, and thus speed up the upgrading pace of industrial clusters in Zhejiang. Also, in addition of significant effect of the financial sector, the logistics industry as a typical representative of the development of producer services is still insufficient to support the effective upgrade of Zhejiang cluster. We should develop producer services such as logistics, finance, marketing control systems and cultural and creative industries, especially the service outsourcing industry, to support effective upgrade of industrial clusters in Zhejiang.
(2) Industrial relocation has multi-level economic subjects with different economic initiative and adaptability. Under the current institutional environment in China, the behavior of enterprises and local governments in industrial relocation are often trapped in a "prisoner's dilemma", one of the important reasons is the emphasis on economic growth-oriented performance appraisal system and term limits. From the view of long-term trend, regional cooperation is rational and necessary for promoting coordinated regional development and achieving inclusive growth. However, only the central government's industrial relocation policy is not enough, we also need to develop specific models and mechanisms for coordination of regional industry, and a series of institutional innovations can improve the effect of industry relocation policy, to achieve the goal of industrial structure adjustment and optimization. From the national level, regional industrial relocation has not yet appeared quick development trend across administrative areas; the province scope is still the mainstream relocation area. China's industrial relocation is often due to increased transaction costs within the enterprise or the adjustment of national policies, and changes of labor and land prices, market demand and environmental regulations. Large rural population base and huge rural surplus labor in China is still the long-term trend, "Lewis turning point" has not substantially come, because China still exist differences on factor prices and labor productivity between regions.
(3) The dynamic evolution of industrial cluster has its inherent laws as a complex nonlinear system; path dependence in the cluster development may lead to the lock or the decline of industrial clusters, the stability of the industrial clusters is very important. In linear space, Cournot competition between firms will lead to spatial concentration; while Bertrand competition between firms will lead to relocation of some firms. A higher level of product differentiation can reduce the price elasticity of demand, reducing the intensity of competition; promote upgrading of industrial clusters to achieve effective and sustainable development. The induced demand for producer services driven by the diverse needs of consumers within the industry cluster can increase the production of collaborative enterprise efficiency, and the development of the service industry can support the production of industrial clusters upgrade. From an evolutionary perspective, because a serious lack of resources in Zhejiang, Zhejiang Province already become the most typical area of industrial relocation, the comparative advantage of Zhejiang lies in its comprehensive system innovation and mechanism innovation. Empirical analysis shows that most of the manufacturing sectors in Zhejiang are very competitive. Overall, Zhejiang cluster relocation has become the trend, but the industrial stickiness is very obvious. Cost factors and market factors are the two leading factors of industrial relocation of Zhejiang; industrial relocation approaches is more diverse, but are mainly incremental relocation. From the view of industrial undertaking such as Anhui Wanjiang side, the main relocation subjects include not only domestic firms, but also many foreign-invested enterprises, indicating the development mode of export-oriented economy in eastern regions may be replicated to the central and western regions.
The existing reseaches on upgrading of industrial clusters mostly focused on competitiveness and global value chain framework, with less to carry out systematic analysis of industrial relocation. This paper firstly defined the relevant concepts clearly, proposed a theoretical framework of evolution of comprehensive comparative advantage based on industrial relocation and industrial clusters upgrading combined with China's national conditions. And we analyzed the dynamic evolution of industrial clusters and two-level game path of firms and the local government in the industrial relocation, then based on econometric tests and field study in Zhejiang and Anhui Wanjiang areas, we answered the driving force and mode of industrial relocation, and the specific impact on industrial upgrading. Finally we proposed policy initiatives to promote industrial clusters upgrading and implementation of industrial relocation orderly.
通过理论分析和实证研究,本文得出以下几个结论：
(1)集群效应和沉没成本导致的产业转移粘性因素会极大地影响产业集群的升级。一个地区的产业转移和集群升级模式由其综合比较优势演化路径所决定。由于不同地区的要素资源禀赋、产业结构及各种环境约束条件的不同,其未来的演化路径会有所差异。综合比较优势演化和产业集群升级的路径不一定是线性和连续的,常常表现为非线性演化,在实现升级的过程中很可能会出现“分岔”。实证研究表明：产业转移粘性对集群升级具有显著的正面影响,这是当前产业转移阶段的特征反应,即我国经济还没有实质面临刘易斯拐点到来的情况下,具有劳动力吸纳功能的集群效应成为产业转移粘性的主导因素,从而对集群升级有显著的正面影响,而沉没成本效应导致的负面影响尚不显著,但是加入滞后一年的专利量对数值的回归表明产业转移粘性的影响虽然仍然为正向,但已经在统计上不显著了。这说明从长期动态的角度看,集群效应导致的产业转移粘性在弱化,而沉没成本效应导致的产业转移粘性的负面影响将会愈加明显,从而倒逼浙江产业集群加快升级步伐。另外,除金融业有显著影响外,以物流业为典型代表的生产性服务业的发展尚不足以支撑浙江集群的有效升级。故应加快发展生产性服务业如物流、金融、营销系统控制及文化创意产业等,尤其是服务外包产业,以支持浙江产业集群的有效升级。
(2)产业转移中不同经济主体具有主动性和适应性。在中国现行体制环境下,产业转移中的企业和地方政府行为经常陷入“囚徒困境”,偏重于经济增长导向的绩效考核机制与任期限制是导致产业转移中各区域不配合的重要原因之
从长远趋势看,理性区域合作具有必然性,产业转移成为推动区域协调发展实现包容性增长的战略选择。但仅有中央政府的产业转移政策是不够的,还需要建立具体的区域产业协调模式和机制,并进行一系列的制度创新才能提高产业转移政策的效果,实现产业结构调整与优化的目标。从全国层面看,区域产业转移尚未出现大面积的跨行政区发展态势,省内转移仍是主流。区域产业转移的流向遵循距离衰减规律,而且大部分是就近转移。我国的产业转移往往是由于企业内部交易成本上升或国家政策的调整、劳动力和土地价格上涨以及环境污染规制、市场需求变化等引起。庞大的人口基数和巨额的农村人口表明中国农村剩余劳动力转移仍然是长期趋势,“刘易斯拐点”尚未实质性到来,因为中国区域之间仍然存在着较大的生产要素价格和劳动生产率差异。
(3)产业集群作为一个复杂的非线性系统,其动态演化有其内在的规律,集群发展中的路径依赖有可能导致产业集群的锁定或衰落,其稳定性受到产业转移的重大影响。在线性空间中,厂商间的古诺竞争会引起空间集聚；而厂商间的伯川德竞争导致部分产业空间转移。产品差异化程度的提高能够降低需求的价格弹性,降低竞争强度,促进产业集群实现有效升级和可持续发展。由消费者多样化需求驱动的对生产性服务业的引致需求能够提高产业集群内各协作企业的生产经营效率,加快发展生产性服务业可以有效支撑产业集群的升级。从演化的视角看,由于浙江严重缺乏资源,从而使得浙江成为我国产业转移的最典型转出地,其综合比较优势在于其制度创新和机制创新带来的协同优势。实证分析表明浙江大部分制造业的区位熵值均大于1,说明其制造业竞争力较强。总体上看,浙江集群式转移已经渐成规模,但产业转移粘性明显。成本因素和市场因素是浙江产业转移的两大主导动力；产业转移的方式较为多元,但主要属于增量式转移。从安徽皖江等产业承接方来看,转移来的企业主体不仅包括国内企业,外商投资企业的比重也很高,说明东部发展外向型经济的模式有可能复制到中西部地区。
总体而言,既有的产业集群升级研究大多基于竞争力和全球价值链模式,较少结合产业转移来进行动态视角的系统分析。本论文在清晰界定相关概念的基础上,结合中国的国情提出了一个基于综合比较优势演化的产业集群升级和产业转移的推拉理论框架,并分析了产业集群演化的动态路径和产业转移中的企业与地方政府双层次博弈关系,然后基于在浙江各地和安徽皖江地区的实地调研分析和对统计资料的计量经济实证回答了产业转移的动力、模式和机制以及对产业集群升级的具体影响,最后提出了促进产业集群升级和产业有序转移的政策举措和实施路径。
Changes of independent development pattern between central and western regions and the coastal parts can not only promote regional economic integration and linkages, and expand domestic demand and narrow the gap between diffeent regions, but also are the urgent needs of tansisition the of economic development mode. In the context of economic globalization and development of information technology, international and interregional industries shift rapidly developed. As a form of network-type industrial organization between markets and enterprises, industrial clusters have become the importance of the regional carrier to promote China's export-oriented economic development and industrial competitiveness enhance. With the expansion of international and interregional industrial relocation, what is the impact of industrial relocation on upgrading industrial clusters in different regions? Zhejiang and other relatively developed eastern regions will appear hollowing out of industries? What is the driving force and mode of industrial relocation? How to upgrade local industrial clusters of eastern regions in the context of industrial relocation? This paper focuses on these issues on the upgrading of industry cluster and industrial relocation. To answer these questions which are highly related with policy issue, we need to do empirical study and case study based on solid theoretical foundation.
Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, this article got the following conclusions:
(1) Cluster effects and sunk costs led to the stickiness of industrial relocation; which will greatly affect the viscosity of industrial clusters upgrade. The path of industrial relocation and local industry cluster upgrading is determined by the evolution of its comprehensive comparative advantage. Because different regions have different industrial structure and various elements of resource and environmental constraints, the different evolutionary path will differ greatly in the future. Integrated evolution of comparative advantage and industrial clusters upgrade path is not necessarily linear and continuous, often engendered nonlinear evolution, in the process of the upgrading, the realization is likely to be a "bifurcation". Empirical research shows that:the stickiness of industrial relocation has a significant positive impact on industrial cluster upgrade; and this is because the current phase characteristics of reaction on industrial relocation. Now our country has no real face on Lewis turning point situations, so cluster effects with positive labor attraction function are significant for the stickiness of industrial relocation, while the sunk cost effect is not due to a significant negative impact, but joined the one-year lagged value of the patent in the regression model, the industrial relocation effect is still positive but already not significant statistically. This shows that from the perspective of long-term dynamics, the stickiness of industrial relocation due to cluster effect is weakening, while stickiness of industrial relocation resulting from the negative effect of sunk costs will be more obvious, and thus speed up the upgrading pace of industrial clusters in Zhejiang. Also, in addition of significant effect of the financial sector, the logistics industry as a typical representative of the development of producer services is still insufficient to support the effective upgrade of Zhejiang cluster. We should develop producer services such as logistics, finance, marketing control systems and cultural and creative industries, especially the service outsourcing industry, to support effective upgrade of industrial clusters in Zhejiang.
(2) Industrial relocation has multi-level economic subjects with different economic initiative and adaptability. Under the current institutional environment in China, the behavior of enterprises and local governments in industrial relocation are often trapped in a "prisoner's dilemma", one of the important reasons is the emphasis on economic growth-oriented performance appraisal system and term limits. From the view of long-term trend, regional cooperation is rational and necessary for promoting coordinated regional development and achieving inclusive growth. However, only the central government's industrial relocation policy is not enough, we also need to develop specific models and mechanisms for coordination of regional industry, and a series of institutional innovations can improve the effect of industry relocation policy, to achieve the goal of industrial structure adjustment and optimization. From the national level, regional industrial relocation has not yet appeared quick development trend across administrative areas; the province scope is still the mainstream relocation area. China's industrial relocation is often due to increased transaction costs within the enterprise or the adjustment of national policies, and changes of labor and land prices, market demand and environmental regulations. Large rural population base and huge rural surplus labor in China is still the long-term trend, "Lewis turning point" has not substantially come, because China still exist differences on factor prices and labor productivity between regions.
(3) The dynamic evolution of industrial cluster has its inherent laws as a complex nonlinear system; path dependence in the cluster development may lead to the lock or the decline of industrial clusters, the stability of the industrial clusters is very important. In linear space, Cournot competition between firms will lead to spatial concentration; while Bertrand competition between firms will lead to relocation of some firms. A higher level of product differentiation can reduce the price elasticity of demand, reducing the intensity of competition; promote upgrading of industrial clusters to achieve effective and sustainable development. The induced demand for producer services driven by the diverse needs of consumers within the industry cluster can increase the production of collaborative enterprise efficiency, and the development of the service industry can support the production of industrial clusters upgrade. From an evolutionary perspective, because a serious lack of resources in Zhejiang, Zhejiang Province already become the most typical area of industrial relocation, the comparative advantage of Zhejiang lies in its comprehensive system innovation and mechanism innovation. Empirical analysis shows that most of the manufacturing sectors in Zhejiang are very competitive. Overall, Zhejiang cluster relocation has become the trend, but the industrial stickiness is very obvious. Cost factors and market factors are the two leading factors of industrial relocation of Zhejiang; industrial relocation approaches is more diverse, but are mainly incremental relocation. From the view of industrial undertaking such as Anhui Wanjiang side, the main relocation subjects include not only domestic firms, but also many foreign-invested enterprises, indicating the development mode of export-oriented economy in eastern regions may be replicated to the central and western regions.
The existing reseaches on upgrading of industrial clusters mostly focused on competitiveness and global value chain framework, with less to carry out systematic analysis of industrial relocation. This paper firstly defined the relevant concepts clearly, proposed a theoretical framework of evolution of comprehensive comparative advantage based on industrial relocation and industrial clusters upgrading combined with China's national conditions. And we analyzed the dynamic evolution of industrial clusters and two-level game path of firms and the local government in the industrial relocation, then based on econometric tests and field study in Zhejiang and Anhui Wanjiang areas, we answered the driving force and mode of industrial relocation, and the specific impact on industrial upgrading. Finally we proposed policy initiatives to promote industrial clusters upgrading and implementation of industrial relocation orderly.
引文
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1 吉姆·柯林斯,杰里·波勒斯.基业长青[M].北京：中信出版社,2009：22.
1 我国的集群研究可追溯到1999年仇保兴的著作《小企业集群》及2001年王辑慈等的《创新的空间——企业集群与区域发展》的出版。
1 金碚：工业经济学新体系研究,中国工业经济,2005,(1)：5-13.
1Hausmann (2007)认为一种产品离其质量前沿越近,其成长性就越差；若离其质量前沿越远,则其成长性就越好。
2 关于产业转移中的政府政策和制度要素的分析放在第五章。
1 本部分内容可参阅拙文：Industry relocation and manufacturing clusters upgrading, Advanced Materials Research[J].2010, vol.102-104:786-790(EI收录编号：20101512844865)。
1 本部分内容可参阅拙文：产业集群网络动态演化的稳定性分析[J].统计与决策,2009,(17)：49-51.
2 邹志庄.中国经济转型[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：385-386.
1 首先对服务经济进行系统研究的是美国经济学家Fuchs (1968)。
1 这一效用函数的形式借鉴了Grossman和Helpman (1991)。
1 吉本斯.博弈论基础[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1999：3-6.
1 张五常.中国的经济制度[Ml,北京：中信出版社,2009,第149页。
2 张五常.中国的经济制度[M],北京：中信出版社,2009,第19页;第158页。
3 不过,新制度经济学理论视角下的国家角色出现了“诺斯悖论”,政府是否应继续追求GDP为核心政绩的争论依然困扰着刚刚成为世界第二大经济体的中国,特别是仍将其作为重要考核指标的地方政府。
1 黄祖辉.转型、发展与制度变革[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2008：第73-74页.
1 张维迎,博弈论与信息经济学,上海：上海人民出版社,1999。
1 我们调研发现在宁波服装业的劳动力供给中,来自中西部的安徽、四川等地农民工大约占80%。
1 来自湖北阳新县的陈江海,在杭州一个制衣厂打工,月薪2500元左右,属于“月光族”。台湾宝成集团投资10亿元在阳新当地设立了5万人规模的新鞋厂,当被问到是否会留在家乡参加当地的招工,他虽然觉得1200元的工资难以接受,但更强调“家里的世界太小”。引自《南方周末》,“民工荒,谁在慌?”2010.3.4第3版。
1 引自：吴家曦,《2008浙江省中小企业发展报告》,出版社：社会科学文献出版社,2009。
1 本节内容可参阅拙文：产业集群发展的路径锁定与升级对策[J].浙江万里学院学报,2010,(3)：5-9.
1 许继琴：《产业集群与区域创新系统》,经济科学出版社,2006,P242。
1 引自《东南商报》,“三率四价倒逼外贸升级转型”2011.3.4第A18版。
1Karen R.Polenske创新经济地理[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2009：30-31.
1 张晓峒.应用数量经济学[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2009:321.339.
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