辽宁省能源消耗及碳排放规律研究
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摘要
本文利用2000-2005年辽宁省的能源利用数据,分析了辽宁省的能源消费结构和能源消耗强度以及能源利用效率的变动规律,能源利用过程中的CO：排放量,各能源类型对大气CO2的贡献率,探索辽宁省节能和CO2减排的技术与对策。其研究结果如下：
1.辽宁省一次能源生产量从2000年的5440.29×104tce上升到2005年的6932.60×104tce,增加了27.43%,年平均增长速率5.17%。原煤生产量逐年增大,石油和天然气生产量下降,水电能发展迅速,但水电能所占比重少,这几年能源生产量逐年增大,主要原煤生产量逐年增加拉动的。
2.2000-2005年辽宁省的能源消费总量10738×104tce-14896×104tce,占我国能源消费量的6.61%-7.83%。能源消费结构由原煤、原油、天然气、水电和生物质能构成,原煤和原油在消费结构中的比重在90%以上,其他几种能源还不到10%,这种能源消费结构,对生态环境的危害较大。辽宁省每年生产的能源量和消费量之间的缺口高达5298×104tce-7963×104tce。
3.能源消耗产业结构差异相当显著,第二产业能耗比重为67.8%-71.2%；第一产业一直保持在2%左右；第三产业能耗比重呈上升趋势,从5.7%上升到9.0%；非物质生产部门能耗比重从3.1%下降到2.5%；生活消费的能源比重在16.80%-18.5%之间波动。
4.各产业部门能源消耗量年增长量变化由大到小的顺序是：交通、运输、仓储和邮电通信业>批发、零售、贸易、餐饮业>农业>生活消费>工业>建筑业>非物质生产部门。表明辽宁省这几年正在进行产业结构调整,发展低耗能行业,第三产业能源消费量大幅度上升；农业处于一个稳定发展时期,第二产业进行了节能技术或产业的转移,对能源消费的年增长量有所下降。但是,这还是局部结构的调整,基本上没有改变第二产业是能源消费的绝对主体地位。
5.辽宁各种能源排放CO2量从2000年的3764.91×104tce上升到2005年的4785.20×104tce,增大了1020.29×104tce。CO2排放源排放量分配格局是：煤炭类和石油类是主要排放源,占排放总量的70%以上；气体能源排放CO2的比重只有11.47%-14.76,生物质能源最小仅为5.37%-6.36%。
6.每年排放CO2总量主要来自工业部门；生活消费排放CO2每年排放量比重都在10%左右；交通运输部门的排放比重在7.06%-13.60%之间；农业、建筑业、零售、贸易、餐饮和非物质生产部门加起来的比重也不到8%。
7.各产业部门单位GDP能耗差别甚大,第二产业单位GDP能耗强度是第一产业的7.2-9.0倍,第三产业的5.7-8.4倍。
8.辽宁六大高耗能行业单位工业产值能耗中,非金属制造业和黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业明显优于全国平均水平,石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业,化学原料和化学制造业与全国平均水平相近；煤炭开采业和洗选业,电力、热力生产和供应业其单位工业产值能耗水平比全国高出4倍左右。辽宁省单位GDP能耗强度年变化下降速率平均为3.28%,全国平均为2.72%,辽宁比全国下降速率大,但是,辽宁单位GDP能耗强度比全国平均高50%-70%。
9.能源利用效率高的产业是第一产业,其次是第三产业,第二产业的能源利用效率最低,只有第一产业的11.89%,第三产业的12.60%。与全国平均水平相比,辽宁的能源利用效率只有全国平均水平的60%左右,表明辽宁省的产业能耗强度大,产业结构出现不合理的地方,使得能源利用效率很低。
10.辽宁GDP和能源消费量是逐年增长的,但是GDP的年增长速率大于能源消费量年增长的速率,辽宁的能源消费弹性系数少于1。说明辽宁的经济增长并不是完全依赖能源的增长获得的,产业结构调整和技术革新在辽宁的经济增长中起着一定作用。
11.辽宁省的CO2排放量与人均GDP的关系,呈现出“反N型”的曲线特征。曲线的第一个转折点处于2001年,出现了“U”型的环境库兹涅茨曲线高峰,第二个转折点处于2005年,随着人均GDP增加,CO2排放量出现反复的上升和下降过程。表明辽宁的经济发展在一定程度上以牺牲环境为代价获得的,另一方面揭示着辽宁的环境与经济尚处于非平衡、难协同的发展阶段。
The article uses energy utilization dates in Liaoning Province between 2000-2005 to analys the structure of the energy consumption of Liaoning Province and energy consumption intensity and its changes of energy efficiency, explore techniques and strategies of energy saving and reduction emissions of carbon dioxide. Carbon emissions in the process of energy's utilization and contribution rate of CO2 are analyzed. The results of this study were summarized as follows:
1、All energy producing enterprises in the country in a given period of time in Liaoning Province rises from 5440×104tce in 2000 to 6932.60×104tce in 2005, increase by 27.43%,its average growth rates is 5.17%.Raw coal output increases year by year,yet oil and natural gas grows extent slow down. Hydro-electric power develop rapidly,but its proportion is still far. Energy capacity increases year by year for recent years.
2、Energy consumption of Liaoning Province rises from 10738×104tce in 2000 to 14896×104tce in 2005,which takes 15% share of total primary energy. The structure of the energy consumption consist of raw coal, crudeoil, natural gas,hydro-electric power and biomass energy.The proportion of raw coal and crudeoil exceeded 90%,some other energy is less than 10%.This structure of the energy consumption poses a threat to ecological environment. The gap between energy producing and consumption reaches up to 5298×104tce—7963×104tce each year in Liaoning Province.
3、Difference of region industry structure of energy consumption is quite conspicuous. The proportion of energy consumption of secondary industry is 67.8%—71.2%;and primary industry has remained at around 2%; The energy consumption of third industry rises from 5.7% to 9.0%. The energy consumption of non-material production sectors descends from 3.1% to 2.5%. The energy consumption of personal consumption fluctuate between 16.8% and 18.5%.
4、The increment changes per year of each industrial departments consumption from strong to weak is tr,affic, transportation,storage, posts and telecommunications, wholesale, retail,trade, restaurant &food services, agriculture, personal consumption, industry, building industry and non-material production sectors.This indicates that the adjustment of industrial structure is in progress in Liaoning Province over the years. Low energy consumption industry is developed. The energy consumption of third industry increase gradually; Agriculture is in the period of a stable development. Energy saving technology or industry transfer is conducted in secondary industry,but it only made partial adjustments and do not change the fact that secondary industry is subjective status of energy consumption.
5、Carbon emissions in Liaoning Province rises from 3764.91×104tce in 2000 to 4785.20×104tce in 2005,which increases by 1020.29×104tce. Distribution pattern of source of carbon emissions discharge amount is that coal and oil are major emitter,which accounts for over 70% of total emission; the proportion of source of carbon emissions is only 11.47%—14.76%, biomass energy is the least,which is only 5.37%—6.36%.
6、Source of carbon emissions mainly comes from industry departments per year; the proportion of carbon emissions that is used in individual consumption is at around 10%; the proportion of carbon emissions that transportation sector consumes is between 7.06% and 13.60%;putting agriculture, building industry, retail,trade, restaurant &food services, non-material production sectors together can be not up to 8%.
7、Per unit GDP energy consumption of industrial departments vary enormously. Intensity of Per unit GDP energy consumption of secondary industry is 7.2—9.0 times that of primary industry,is 5.7—8.4 times that of tertiary industry.
8、Among these six high-energy-costing industries in Liaoning Province, non-metal manufacturing and black metal smelting and rolling industry are obviously better than the national average; oil processing, coal and nuclear processing industry, chemical material and chemical manufacturing are similar with national average. The energy consumption per product of coal mining and washing, electricity, heat production and supply is about four times higher than the national. The yearly changes rate of intensity decline of Per unit GDP energy consumption in Liaoning Province was 3.28% on average. Intensity of Per unit GDP energy consumption of Liaoning Province is morn 50%—70% than national on average.
9、The industry of highest efficiency of energy utilization is primary industry, the second is tertiary industry. Secondary industry is the lowest using rate of resource industry. Efficiency of energy utilization of Liaoning Province is only 60% compared with the national average.lt is known that Liaoning Province has great intension energy consumption, industrial structure is not reasonable.
10、GDP of Liaoningand energy consumption is increasing year by year.Growth rate a year of GDP is more than that of energy consumption.lt indicates that economic growth do not rely entirely on energy growth, the structure adjustment and technical innovation play roles in economic increase in Liaoning Province.
11、The relationship between carbon emissions in Liaoning Province and GDP per person show a "reverse N model" curve characteristics.The first turning point is in 2001 presenting the peak of Environmental Kuznets curve. The second turning point is in 2005,with increase of GDP per person, carbon emissions shows falling as well as rising reiteratively.lt shows that economic growth of Liaoning Province achieved at the expense of environment to a certain extent,from another point of view, environment and economy of Liaoning Province are at non-equilibrium stages of development.
1.辽宁省一次能源生产量从2000年的5440.29×104tce上升到2005年的6932.60×104tce,增加了27.43%,年平均增长速率5.17%。原煤生产量逐年增大,石油和天然气生产量下降,水电能发展迅速,但水电能所占比重少,这几年能源生产量逐年增大,主要原煤生产量逐年增加拉动的。
2.2000-2005年辽宁省的能源消费总量10738×104tce-14896×104tce,占我国能源消费量的6.61%-7.83%。能源消费结构由原煤、原油、天然气、水电和生物质能构成,原煤和原油在消费结构中的比重在90%以上,其他几种能源还不到10%,这种能源消费结构,对生态环境的危害较大。辽宁省每年生产的能源量和消费量之间的缺口高达5298×104tce-7963×104tce。
3.能源消耗产业结构差异相当显著,第二产业能耗比重为67.8%-71.2%；第一产业一直保持在2%左右；第三产业能耗比重呈上升趋势,从5.7%上升到9.0%；非物质生产部门能耗比重从3.1%下降到2.5%；生活消费的能源比重在16.80%-18.5%之间波动。
4.各产业部门能源消耗量年增长量变化由大到小的顺序是：交通、运输、仓储和邮电通信业>批发、零售、贸易、餐饮业>农业>生活消费>工业>建筑业>非物质生产部门。表明辽宁省这几年正在进行产业结构调整,发展低耗能行业,第三产业能源消费量大幅度上升；农业处于一个稳定发展时期,第二产业进行了节能技术或产业的转移,对能源消费的年增长量有所下降。但是,这还是局部结构的调整,基本上没有改变第二产业是能源消费的绝对主体地位。
5.辽宁各种能源排放CO2量从2000年的3764.91×104tce上升到2005年的4785.20×104tce,增大了1020.29×104tce。CO2排放源排放量分配格局是：煤炭类和石油类是主要排放源,占排放总量的70%以上；气体能源排放CO2的比重只有11.47%-14.76,生物质能源最小仅为5.37%-6.36%。
6.每年排放CO2总量主要来自工业部门；生活消费排放CO2每年排放量比重都在10%左右；交通运输部门的排放比重在7.06%-13.60%之间；农业、建筑业、零售、贸易、餐饮和非物质生产部门加起来的比重也不到8%。
7.各产业部门单位GDP能耗差别甚大,第二产业单位GDP能耗强度是第一产业的7.2-9.0倍,第三产业的5.7-8.4倍。
8.辽宁六大高耗能行业单位工业产值能耗中,非金属制造业和黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业明显优于全国平均水平,石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业,化学原料和化学制造业与全国平均水平相近；煤炭开采业和洗选业,电力、热力生产和供应业其单位工业产值能耗水平比全国高出4倍左右。辽宁省单位GDP能耗强度年变化下降速率平均为3.28%,全国平均为2.72%,辽宁比全国下降速率大,但是,辽宁单位GDP能耗强度比全国平均高50%-70%。
9.能源利用效率高的产业是第一产业,其次是第三产业,第二产业的能源利用效率最低,只有第一产业的11.89%,第三产业的12.60%。与全国平均水平相比,辽宁的能源利用效率只有全国平均水平的60%左右,表明辽宁省的产业能耗强度大,产业结构出现不合理的地方,使得能源利用效率很低。
10.辽宁GDP和能源消费量是逐年增长的,但是GDP的年增长速率大于能源消费量年增长的速率,辽宁的能源消费弹性系数少于1。说明辽宁的经济增长并不是完全依赖能源的增长获得的,产业结构调整和技术革新在辽宁的经济增长中起着一定作用。
11.辽宁省的CO2排放量与人均GDP的关系,呈现出“反N型”的曲线特征。曲线的第一个转折点处于2001年,出现了“U”型的环境库兹涅茨曲线高峰,第二个转折点处于2005年,随着人均GDP增加,CO2排放量出现反复的上升和下降过程。表明辽宁的经济发展在一定程度上以牺牲环境为代价获得的,另一方面揭示着辽宁的环境与经济尚处于非平衡、难协同的发展阶段。
The article uses energy utilization dates in Liaoning Province between 2000-2005 to analys the structure of the energy consumption of Liaoning Province and energy consumption intensity and its changes of energy efficiency, explore techniques and strategies of energy saving and reduction emissions of carbon dioxide. Carbon emissions in the process of energy's utilization and contribution rate of CO2 are analyzed. The results of this study were summarized as follows:
1、All energy producing enterprises in the country in a given period of time in Liaoning Province rises from 5440×104tce in 2000 to 6932.60×104tce in 2005, increase by 27.43%,its average growth rates is 5.17%.Raw coal output increases year by year,yet oil and natural gas grows extent slow down. Hydro-electric power develop rapidly,but its proportion is still far. Energy capacity increases year by year for recent years.
2、Energy consumption of Liaoning Province rises from 10738×104tce in 2000 to 14896×104tce in 2005,which takes 15% share of total primary energy. The structure of the energy consumption consist of raw coal, crudeoil, natural gas,hydro-electric power and biomass energy.The proportion of raw coal and crudeoil exceeded 90%,some other energy is less than 10%.This structure of the energy consumption poses a threat to ecological environment. The gap between energy producing and consumption reaches up to 5298×104tce—7963×104tce each year in Liaoning Province.
3、Difference of region industry structure of energy consumption is quite conspicuous. The proportion of energy consumption of secondary industry is 67.8%—71.2%;and primary industry has remained at around 2%; The energy consumption of third industry rises from 5.7% to 9.0%. The energy consumption of non-material production sectors descends from 3.1% to 2.5%. The energy consumption of personal consumption fluctuate between 16.8% and 18.5%.
4、The increment changes per year of each industrial departments consumption from strong to weak is tr,affic, transportation,storage, posts and telecommunications, wholesale, retail,trade, restaurant &food services, agriculture, personal consumption, industry, building industry and non-material production sectors.This indicates that the adjustment of industrial structure is in progress in Liaoning Province over the years. Low energy consumption industry is developed. The energy consumption of third industry increase gradually; Agriculture is in the period of a stable development. Energy saving technology or industry transfer is conducted in secondary industry,but it only made partial adjustments and do not change the fact that secondary industry is subjective status of energy consumption.
5、Carbon emissions in Liaoning Province rises from 3764.91×104tce in 2000 to 4785.20×104tce in 2005,which increases by 1020.29×104tce. Distribution pattern of source of carbon emissions discharge amount is that coal and oil are major emitter,which accounts for over 70% of total emission; the proportion of source of carbon emissions is only 11.47%—14.76%, biomass energy is the least,which is only 5.37%—6.36%.
6、Source of carbon emissions mainly comes from industry departments per year; the proportion of carbon emissions that is used in individual consumption is at around 10%; the proportion of carbon emissions that transportation sector consumes is between 7.06% and 13.60%;putting agriculture, building industry, retail,trade, restaurant &food services, non-material production sectors together can be not up to 8%.
7、Per unit GDP energy consumption of industrial departments vary enormously. Intensity of Per unit GDP energy consumption of secondary industry is 7.2—9.0 times that of primary industry,is 5.7—8.4 times that of tertiary industry.
8、Among these six high-energy-costing industries in Liaoning Province, non-metal manufacturing and black metal smelting and rolling industry are obviously better than the national average; oil processing, coal and nuclear processing industry, chemical material and chemical manufacturing are similar with national average. The energy consumption per product of coal mining and washing, electricity, heat production and supply is about four times higher than the national. The yearly changes rate of intensity decline of Per unit GDP energy consumption in Liaoning Province was 3.28% on average. Intensity of Per unit GDP energy consumption of Liaoning Province is morn 50%—70% than national on average.
9、The industry of highest efficiency of energy utilization is primary industry, the second is tertiary industry. Secondary industry is the lowest using rate of resource industry. Efficiency of energy utilization of Liaoning Province is only 60% compared with the national average.lt is known that Liaoning Province has great intension energy consumption, industrial structure is not reasonable.
10、GDP of Liaoningand energy consumption is increasing year by year.Growth rate a year of GDP is more than that of energy consumption.lt indicates that economic growth do not rely entirely on energy growth, the structure adjustment and technical innovation play roles in economic increase in Liaoning Province.
11、The relationship between carbon emissions in Liaoning Province and GDP per person show a "reverse N model" curve characteristics.The first turning point is in 2001 presenting the peak of Environmental Kuznets curve. The second turning point is in 2005,with increase of GDP per person, carbon emissions shows falling as well as rising reiteratively.lt shows that economic growth of Liaoning Province achieved at the expense of environment to a certain extent,from another point of view, environment and economy of Liaoning Province are at non-equilibrium stages of development.
引文
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