基于系统仿真和情景模拟的崇明生态安全评估
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摘要
生态安全是可持续发展的重要基础,与军事安全、政治安全、经济安全一起共同组成了国家安全体系,是经济、社会发展的基础,是当前全球范围的重要议题。岛屿是海洋资源研究在地理空间上的重要载体,具有特殊的生态环境特征。同时,海洋经济的迅速发展与岛屿生态系统的脆弱性共同决定了其生态安全问题的严峻性。而且进行典型区域性的生态安全的理论与实践研究,有助于完善和丰富该领域的理论和方法,有利于指导实际生态安全体系建设的科学性和有效性。崇明是21世纪上海可持续发展的重要战略空间,“生态岛”的定位和崇明的开发与开放为崇明生态建设和管理工作提出了新的机遇与挑战。在上述背景下,进行崇明生态安全的评估,并探索生态安全的管理和保障措施,对于促进崇明经济可持续发展,改善岛屿生存环境具有重大意义。
论文在回顾国内外研究的基础上对生态安全的概念及其体系进行了界定；在考虑现有崇明的环境和政策背景下,找到目前崇明岛存在的生态安全的主要问题；以复合生态系统理论为理论基础,运用系统动力学的方法和软件工具对崇明复合生态系统进行动力学建模,并运用该模型对未来的系统状况的发展趋势和主要的生态风险进行仿真；构建了适合河口岛屿特点的生态安全评价指标体系,并进行生态安全的综合评价及空间分异研究；基于动力学模型所揭示的崇明生态系统的作用机制和特点,以及崇明生态安全评价结果,提出管理和保障的对策和措施。论文的主要研究结果体现在以下方面：
第一,对生态安全概念的演化历程和特点进行了梳理,认为生态安全是指生态质量的状况和受威胁时的状态；可以通过对生态系统自身的健康水平和系统所承受的外来生态风险的分析,较为完整地评价和度量区域生态安全的水平。
第二,生态安全格局的时空变化同时受到自然和社会作用力的影响。崇明特殊的地理特征、区位条件决定了崇明生态安全问题的复杂性,而新一轮社会经济发展则为崇明生态环境建设带来了更大的压力和挑战。主要体现在生态系统的脆弱性和稳定性较差；生态风险源的多样性和多尺度性；未来土地覆被的较大变化将对生态安全产生深刻影响等问题。
第三,运用系统动力学的方法和工具建立的崇明复合生态系统的系统动力学模型,由人口、经济、资源、环境和生态五个子系统构成。系统现状趋势的仿真和现有规划方案模拟比较可以发现：各规划方案的模拟的结果均优于现状趋势,原因主要是由于规划方案在基础设施建设、环境保护、节能减排和生态建设方面提出了较高的目标,从而减少了由于自然灾害、环境污染和资源短缺而造成的净GDP的损失。未来13年(2007-2020)年经济的快速增长将是未来崇明生态安全的主要压力；资源问题将成为崇明未来发展的主要制约因素,尤其是能源问题突出；环境污染物排放的快速增加将很大的影响崇明生态环境的质量。依据系统特征和方案模拟比较分析的结果,可以选择用于衡量生态安全水平的指标集合,并确定生态安全评价的参考阈值。
第四,通过情景设定,运用SD模型对威胁崇明生态安全的主要的风险因子(咸水入侵、风暴潮和交通状况改变)进行了仿真,主要有以下结论：尽管目前淡水资源仍有不少剩余,但随着淡水需求的快速增长,咸水入侵导致的淡水资源缺口愈加明显；在交通影响情景下,未来主要变量(总能耗和污染物总量)的增长幅度将较原有情景下更大,在整体系统中环境将承受更大的压力；不同灾害强度指数下各方案的灾害损失都是随崇明岛发展呈现时间序列上的增加的态势。同时发现防灾减灾应在认识和了解风险的作用机制的基础上,科学的用地规划,恢复和重建防灾生态功能区,加大防灾基础设施投入并加强监管将起到事半功倍的效果。
第五,区域生态安全评价的特点有三：对象是复合生态系统,评价的时空差异；评价结果的相对性。在回顾生态安全评价方法和指标体系构建的基础上,提出了ANP-PRS-SENCE框架体系,并据此进行了崇明生态安全的综合评价和空间分异研究。研究表明：
①崇明生态安全的综合指数处于第Ⅲ级(生态安全程度一般)的水平；生态安全的综合得分在近几年中呈现总体逐渐提高的趋势；在二级综合指数评分结果中,生态健康指数相对指较高,而生态保障指数较低,是目前制约生态安全综合水平的主要因素。
②生态安全空间分异结果显示,大多数区域单元的生态安全水平处于一个中间偏下的敏感区；风险指数相对得分较高,主要是缘于人口密度低,经济发展滞后而产生的压力较小；而造成崇明大多数区域单元的生态安全指数不理想的主要原因一方面是保障指数偏低；另一方面是健康指数较低,尽管在综合崇明生态安全的综合评价中健康指数得分较高,但由于崇明自然生态系统分布相对集中在少数几个区域单元,加上三产业的比例偏低,造成大多数单元的得分较低。
第七,根据目前崇明生态安全面临的快速的经济发展导向和脆弱环境之间、自然灾害频发和薄弱的基础设施之间、农业的主体地位与农业污染的严重之间的三大矛盾,提出了生态安全管理的对策,主要是：有效加强自然资源保护和管理,积极发展生态型产业、实现低碳经济,提高环境治污能力、完善公共服务体系,构建生态安全预警的空间决策支持系统。
Ecological security is the important basis of sustainable development and constitutes the national security system together with military security, political security and economic security. And it is the basis of society and economic development. In addition, Ecological security is the important subject in the global setting. Island is the important carrier of oceanology in geographic space and character of the environment is special. Furthermore, rapid development of ocean economy and frangibility of island ecosystem combine to determine the austerity of island eco-security issue. At the same time, study on the eco-security theory and practice in representative areas is conducive to consummating and enriching the theory and means of the field and steering effectively the practice of eco-security system construction. Chongming Island is the important strategic space of Shanghai sustainable development in the 21th century. The orientation of "Ecological Island " and exploitation and opening bring about new opportunities and challenge for ecological construction and management of Chongming Island. Under that background, it is very meaningful for the acceleration of sustainable development and improvement of the island survival environment to assess eco-security of Chongming and study the measures of management and safeguard of eco-security.
Based on review of the research at home and abroad, the paper defines the concept and system of eco-security. Taking the background of environment and policy into account, we try to discover the main problems of eco-security of Chongming Island. And taking the SENCE as the theoretical basis, we build models through the means and software tool of dynamics system for ecosystem of Chongming. Also, system development trend and main ecological risk are simulated based on the model. Moreover, the index system of eco-security assessment that is suitable for estuary island is constructed. And integrate assessment and space diversity research of Chongming eco-security are carried out based on the index system. According to the mechanism and characteristic of composite ecosystem of Chongming that are revealed by dynamistic model and the result of eco-security assessment, the measure of management and safeguard of eco-security is put forword. The main research results of the paper are embodied in the following:
Firstly, the paper puts forward the conceptual system of eco-security based on the review the evolutionary course of the concept of eco-security. Eco-security refers to ecological quality and the state under threat. And it includes biological security, environmental security and the security of ecosystem. The eco-security can be analyzed and assessed from health and risk level of ecosystem. Moreover, ecological service function is representative of eco-security level of ecosystem.
Secondly, space-time-change of eco-security pattern is influenced by the effect of nature and society. The special geographic character and regional condition decide complexity of the issue of eco-security of Chongming. And a new round of socio-economic development brings more pressure and challenge to ecology and environment of Chongming. The problem is maily embodied in the fragility and instability, diversity and multi-scalar nature of ecology risk fountain, the big change of future ground utilization will greatly influence eco-security.
Thirdly, the system dynamic model of composite ecosystem of Chongming is built by the means and tools of system dynamics. The model is composed of five subsystem:population, economy, resource, environment and ecology. It is discovered that the simulation result of planned projects is superior to the actual trend. The cause is that higher aim of the plans in such aspects as infrastructure construction, environment protection, energy-saving and reduction and ecological construction. As a result, the loss of net GDP caused by disaster, pollution and resource scarcity is reduced. The rapid development of economy will be the main pressure of eco-security in next ten years. And resource will be main restricting factor and the issue of energy figures prominently. The rapid increase of environment contamination will greatly influence the quality of ecology and environment of Chongming. According to the system character and simulation result analysis and comparison, we can choose the index that can weigh the eco-security level and decide the threshold of the index.
Fourthly, the paper uses the dynamic model to simulate the main risk (salt water erosion, storm tide and the change of traffic condition) that threatens eco-security of Chongming. The main conclusions are as follows. On one the hand, along with rapid increase of fresh water demand, salt water erosion will make freshwater gap more visible in future though the freshwater resource is surplus at present. Also, under the influence of traffic state change, some variables (gross energy consumption and gross contamination) will increase more quickly than previous state and environment will endure more pressure in whole system. And the disaster loss will increase with development of Chongming under different disaster intension index. At same time, it is discovered that we should scientifically plan ground using, renew and rebuild ecological function area which prevent disaster and increase the inverstmentof foundational establishment to prevent and decrease disaster according to understanding the function mechanism of the risk.
Fifthly, the character of assessment of area eco-security has three points:the object is composite ecosystem; the assessment has spatio-temporal difference; the result is relative. Based on review of the means and index system of eco-security assessment, the paper puts forward the frame system of ANP-PRS-SENCE. And according to the frame, eco-security assessment and space difference are studied. The result can indicate two points:
I. The general index of eco-security of Chongming is at the grade of III (middling). And there is a trend of gradual increase in the scores of eco-security in last years. In the second grade indexes, the index of ecological health is higher, while the index of ecological safeguard is lower and it is the main factor that restricts eco-security level.
Ⅱ. We can find that eco-security level of most area units is in hyponastic middling grade that is more sensitive from the result of space difference research. The pressure index is relatively higher and less pressure is brought about because of low population density and underdevelopment of economy. The reason of low-level of eco-security index of most area is that the response index and state index is lower. Though health index is higher in general assessment of eco-security, the state index of most area units is lower because natural ecosystems are concentrated in few area units and the third industrial proportion is lower.
Seventhly, eco-security of Chongming is faced with three contradictions:rapid economy development and frail environment, highly frequent nature disaster and unsubstantial foundation establishment, agricultural main status and high agricultural pollution. According to it, there are four countermeasures of eco-security management, which are to to effectively strengthen the protection and management of natural resources, and actively develop eco-industries and to achieve a Low-carbon economy, to improve environmental pollution control capability and public service system, and to establish Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) of eco-security defense and alarming system.
论文在回顾国内外研究的基础上对生态安全的概念及其体系进行了界定；在考虑现有崇明的环境和政策背景下,找到目前崇明岛存在的生态安全的主要问题；以复合生态系统理论为理论基础,运用系统动力学的方法和软件工具对崇明复合生态系统进行动力学建模,并运用该模型对未来的系统状况的发展趋势和主要的生态风险进行仿真；构建了适合河口岛屿特点的生态安全评价指标体系,并进行生态安全的综合评价及空间分异研究；基于动力学模型所揭示的崇明生态系统的作用机制和特点,以及崇明生态安全评价结果,提出管理和保障的对策和措施。论文的主要研究结果体现在以下方面：
第一,对生态安全概念的演化历程和特点进行了梳理,认为生态安全是指生态质量的状况和受威胁时的状态；可以通过对生态系统自身的健康水平和系统所承受的外来生态风险的分析,较为完整地评价和度量区域生态安全的水平。
第二,生态安全格局的时空变化同时受到自然和社会作用力的影响。崇明特殊的地理特征、区位条件决定了崇明生态安全问题的复杂性,而新一轮社会经济发展则为崇明生态环境建设带来了更大的压力和挑战。主要体现在生态系统的脆弱性和稳定性较差；生态风险源的多样性和多尺度性；未来土地覆被的较大变化将对生态安全产生深刻影响等问题。
第三,运用系统动力学的方法和工具建立的崇明复合生态系统的系统动力学模型,由人口、经济、资源、环境和生态五个子系统构成。系统现状趋势的仿真和现有规划方案模拟比较可以发现：各规划方案的模拟的结果均优于现状趋势,原因主要是由于规划方案在基础设施建设、环境保护、节能减排和生态建设方面提出了较高的目标,从而减少了由于自然灾害、环境污染和资源短缺而造成的净GDP的损失。未来13年(2007-2020)年经济的快速增长将是未来崇明生态安全的主要压力；资源问题将成为崇明未来发展的主要制约因素,尤其是能源问题突出；环境污染物排放的快速增加将很大的影响崇明生态环境的质量。依据系统特征和方案模拟比较分析的结果,可以选择用于衡量生态安全水平的指标集合,并确定生态安全评价的参考阈值。
第四,通过情景设定,运用SD模型对威胁崇明生态安全的主要的风险因子(咸水入侵、风暴潮和交通状况改变)进行了仿真,主要有以下结论：尽管目前淡水资源仍有不少剩余,但随着淡水需求的快速增长,咸水入侵导致的淡水资源缺口愈加明显；在交通影响情景下,未来主要变量(总能耗和污染物总量)的增长幅度将较原有情景下更大,在整体系统中环境将承受更大的压力；不同灾害强度指数下各方案的灾害损失都是随崇明岛发展呈现时间序列上的增加的态势。同时发现防灾减灾应在认识和了解风险的作用机制的基础上,科学的用地规划,恢复和重建防灾生态功能区,加大防灾基础设施投入并加强监管将起到事半功倍的效果。
第五,区域生态安全评价的特点有三：对象是复合生态系统,评价的时空差异；评价结果的相对性。在回顾生态安全评价方法和指标体系构建的基础上,提出了ANP-PRS-SENCE框架体系,并据此进行了崇明生态安全的综合评价和空间分异研究。研究表明：
①崇明生态安全的综合指数处于第Ⅲ级(生态安全程度一般)的水平；生态安全的综合得分在近几年中呈现总体逐渐提高的趋势；在二级综合指数评分结果中,生态健康指数相对指较高,而生态保障指数较低,是目前制约生态安全综合水平的主要因素。
②生态安全空间分异结果显示,大多数区域单元的生态安全水平处于一个中间偏下的敏感区；风险指数相对得分较高,主要是缘于人口密度低,经济发展滞后而产生的压力较小；而造成崇明大多数区域单元的生态安全指数不理想的主要原因一方面是保障指数偏低；另一方面是健康指数较低,尽管在综合崇明生态安全的综合评价中健康指数得分较高,但由于崇明自然生态系统分布相对集中在少数几个区域单元,加上三产业的比例偏低,造成大多数单元的得分较低。
第七,根据目前崇明生态安全面临的快速的经济发展导向和脆弱环境之间、自然灾害频发和薄弱的基础设施之间、农业的主体地位与农业污染的严重之间的三大矛盾,提出了生态安全管理的对策,主要是：有效加强自然资源保护和管理,积极发展生态型产业、实现低碳经济,提高环境治污能力、完善公共服务体系,构建生态安全预警的空间决策支持系统。
Ecological security is the important basis of sustainable development and constitutes the national security system together with military security, political security and economic security. And it is the basis of society and economic development. In addition, Ecological security is the important subject in the global setting. Island is the important carrier of oceanology in geographic space and character of the environment is special. Furthermore, rapid development of ocean economy and frangibility of island ecosystem combine to determine the austerity of island eco-security issue. At the same time, study on the eco-security theory and practice in representative areas is conducive to consummating and enriching the theory and means of the field and steering effectively the practice of eco-security system construction. Chongming Island is the important strategic space of Shanghai sustainable development in the 21th century. The orientation of "Ecological Island " and exploitation and opening bring about new opportunities and challenge for ecological construction and management of Chongming Island. Under that background, it is very meaningful for the acceleration of sustainable development and improvement of the island survival environment to assess eco-security of Chongming and study the measures of management and safeguard of eco-security.
Based on review of the research at home and abroad, the paper defines the concept and system of eco-security. Taking the background of environment and policy into account, we try to discover the main problems of eco-security of Chongming Island. And taking the SENCE as the theoretical basis, we build models through the means and software tool of dynamics system for ecosystem of Chongming. Also, system development trend and main ecological risk are simulated based on the model. Moreover, the index system of eco-security assessment that is suitable for estuary island is constructed. And integrate assessment and space diversity research of Chongming eco-security are carried out based on the index system. According to the mechanism and characteristic of composite ecosystem of Chongming that are revealed by dynamistic model and the result of eco-security assessment, the measure of management and safeguard of eco-security is put forword. The main research results of the paper are embodied in the following:
Firstly, the paper puts forward the conceptual system of eco-security based on the review the evolutionary course of the concept of eco-security. Eco-security refers to ecological quality and the state under threat. And it includes biological security, environmental security and the security of ecosystem. The eco-security can be analyzed and assessed from health and risk level of ecosystem. Moreover, ecological service function is representative of eco-security level of ecosystem.
Secondly, space-time-change of eco-security pattern is influenced by the effect of nature and society. The special geographic character and regional condition decide complexity of the issue of eco-security of Chongming. And a new round of socio-economic development brings more pressure and challenge to ecology and environment of Chongming. The problem is maily embodied in the fragility and instability, diversity and multi-scalar nature of ecology risk fountain, the big change of future ground utilization will greatly influence eco-security.
Thirdly, the system dynamic model of composite ecosystem of Chongming is built by the means and tools of system dynamics. The model is composed of five subsystem:population, economy, resource, environment and ecology. It is discovered that the simulation result of planned projects is superior to the actual trend. The cause is that higher aim of the plans in such aspects as infrastructure construction, environment protection, energy-saving and reduction and ecological construction. As a result, the loss of net GDP caused by disaster, pollution and resource scarcity is reduced. The rapid development of economy will be the main pressure of eco-security in next ten years. And resource will be main restricting factor and the issue of energy figures prominently. The rapid increase of environment contamination will greatly influence the quality of ecology and environment of Chongming. According to the system character and simulation result analysis and comparison, we can choose the index that can weigh the eco-security level and decide the threshold of the index.
Fourthly, the paper uses the dynamic model to simulate the main risk (salt water erosion, storm tide and the change of traffic condition) that threatens eco-security of Chongming. The main conclusions are as follows. On one the hand, along with rapid increase of fresh water demand, salt water erosion will make freshwater gap more visible in future though the freshwater resource is surplus at present. Also, under the influence of traffic state change, some variables (gross energy consumption and gross contamination) will increase more quickly than previous state and environment will endure more pressure in whole system. And the disaster loss will increase with development of Chongming under different disaster intension index. At same time, it is discovered that we should scientifically plan ground using, renew and rebuild ecological function area which prevent disaster and increase the inverstmentof foundational establishment to prevent and decrease disaster according to understanding the function mechanism of the risk.
Fifthly, the character of assessment of area eco-security has three points:the object is composite ecosystem; the assessment has spatio-temporal difference; the result is relative. Based on review of the means and index system of eco-security assessment, the paper puts forward the frame system of ANP-PRS-SENCE. And according to the frame, eco-security assessment and space difference are studied. The result can indicate two points:
I. The general index of eco-security of Chongming is at the grade of III (middling). And there is a trend of gradual increase in the scores of eco-security in last years. In the second grade indexes, the index of ecological health is higher, while the index of ecological safeguard is lower and it is the main factor that restricts eco-security level.
Ⅱ. We can find that eco-security level of most area units is in hyponastic middling grade that is more sensitive from the result of space difference research. The pressure index is relatively higher and less pressure is brought about because of low population density and underdevelopment of economy. The reason of low-level of eco-security index of most area is that the response index and state index is lower. Though health index is higher in general assessment of eco-security, the state index of most area units is lower because natural ecosystems are concentrated in few area units and the third industrial proportion is lower.
Seventhly, eco-security of Chongming is faced with three contradictions:rapid economy development and frail environment, highly frequent nature disaster and unsubstantial foundation establishment, agricultural main status and high agricultural pollution. According to it, there are four countermeasures of eco-security management, which are to to effectively strengthen the protection and management of natural resources, and actively develop eco-industries and to achieve a Low-carbon economy, to improve environmental pollution control capability and public service system, and to establish Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) of eco-security defense and alarming system.
引文
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