地下水不确定性问题的多模型分析方法及应用
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摘要
不确定性是客观世界的固有属性,普遍存在于各个学科领域。对地下水模型进行不确定性分析,一直是水文地质学的研究热点和难点。最近十年,多模型分析(Multiple Model Analysis, MMA)的方法开始受到学者们的重视,并得到了广泛的应用。
本文从岩性分布、渗透系数随机分布和岩体复杂构造三方面开展了多模型分析。首先,选取常见的河间地块问题,以渗流区岩性分布的不确定性为研究对象,构建了多模型方案,模拟得到了预测潜水位及其置信区间。岩性分布不确定性由置信区间的变化得到了很好的体现,验证了多模型分析方法的实用性。
基于非稳定井流溶质运移问题,评价了建模过程中网格单元尺度选择和渗透系数场随机生成过程中抽样、插值等不确定因素对模拟的影响。分析了不同位置观测孔的浓度变化特征以及污染羽形态差异,结果表明网格单元尺度对模拟结果影响最大,抽样误差次之,克里格插值方法最小。研究还指出了AICc准则评价网格尺度、渗透系数随机分布等不确定性的局限性。
针对雅砻江锦屏二级水电站工程区的隧洞涌水问题,在MODFLOW环境下建立了5种工况下的三维稳定流模型,讨论了复杂构造所引起的参数方案不确定性,利用UCODE程序优化了参数,使用多模型方法预测了防渗前后隧洞群的总涌水量分别为40.35 m~3/s和31.19 m~3/s。
包括渗透结构在内的各种水文地质条件的不确定性,都应该作为多模型分析的对象。在系统分析概念模型不确定性的基础之上,选用分布式地下水数值模拟程序MODFLOW,建立了太原地区岩溶地下水系统的多模型分析框架,全面、系统地研究了1956年至1994年气候变化和人类活动影响下的晋祠泉和兰村泉泉流量衰减过程。
研究取得了几点认识:1)将东山岩溶水系统纳入研究区的模拟效果更好;2)晋祠、兰村泉域地下水系统不存在所谓的可变边界;3)渗透系数垂向上衰减程度的差异所引起的不确定性大于补给方式;4)晋祠泉对降雨量变化较敏感,降水量减少和开采增加都是致使晋祠断流的重要原因。
网格尺度不确定性对模拟有着重要影响,但往往被研究者忽视,为了探讨评价此类不确定性的方法,进行了数值试验。试验分析了模型网格大小不同所导致的渗透系数分布的差异,以及布置井、河流和观测孔等要素的变化,基于AICc的多模型分析结果表明,传统的信息量准则并不适于评价网格尺度因素引起的模拟不确定性。为此,提出了基于网格尺度的信息量准则GIC (Grid Information Criterion),实现了对AICc准则的改进。
Uncertainty is one of the inherent natures of the whole world, and exists in all scientific subjects. It has been a focus to analyze and assess the uncertainties in groundwater modeling. In the recent decade, hydrogeologists have paid increasing attention to Multiple Model Analysis (MMA), making it more and more popular in modeling practices.
MMA was applied to study the uncertainties due to the permeability of media including the lithologic character, the random distribution of hydraulic conductivity, and the complicated structure of fractured media. First, we studied a common problem about groundwater seepage to parallel ditches. According to the uncertainty of lithology distribution, a serial of models were constructed to predict the elevation of water table and calculate its confidence interval. The practicablity of MMA was verified by the correspondence between water level variation and lithologic heterogeneity.
Then we evaluated the scale effect of grid on solute transport simulation on the basis of a transit well flow. The errors of sampling and interpolation were also taken into account in the process of generation of the random hydraulic conductivity field. The characteristics of observed concentration at three points and the difference of contaminant plume patterns were compared. Results show that the grid scale has the most influence on simulation, the sampling error next, and the kriging interpolation method the least. Additionally, this study pointed out the corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc) is deficient to evaluate the uncertainty of grid scale as well as the randomicity of hydraulic conductivity.
Third, three-dimensional steady state flow models under five different scenarios were established within MODFLOW, to predict the water inflow in tunnels of JinpingⅡhydropower station. We discussed the parameterization uncertainty caused by conceptualization of complex fracture structure. UCODE was employed to optimize parameters, the models selected by MMA forecasted water inflows in all tunnels before and after waterproof protections, and the results are 40.35 and 31.19 m~3/s, respectively.
Besides the permeability of media, uncertainties of hydrogeological conditions need to be studied. After thoroughly illustrating the uncertainties of conceptualization for karst groundwater system in Taiyuan area, we applied the distribuated hydrogeological model MODFLOW to simulate the attenuation process of discharge rate of Jinci and Lancun springs from 1956 to 1994. Both climate change and human activities are the main factors concerned.
Understandings obtained including: 1) it is better to take the East Mountain area into consideration to be an entire problem domain. 2) there is no so-called variable boundary between Jinci and Lancun groundwater subsystems. 3) uncertaity resulted from different degrees of depth-decay of hydraulic conductivity is greater than that caused by various recharge patterns. 4) Jinci springs are more sensitive to changes of interannual rainfall; both the reduction of precipitation and the increase of groundwater exploitation caused the springs stopped flow.
It is often neglected by modelers that the uncertainty of grid scale plays important role to numerical simulation. We conducted experiments to explore the methods to assess this uncertainty. Different sizes of grid cell with respect to the same hydrogeological problem can result in resolution variation of hyaulic conductivity, and lead to other design changes related to elements such as wells, rivers, and observations etc. MMA results using AICc show that the traditional information criterion is not suitable for evaluation of grid scale effect. Therefore, we proposed a new criterion named Grid Information Criterion (GIC), and proved it is an improvement of AICc by a numerical test.
本文从岩性分布、渗透系数随机分布和岩体复杂构造三方面开展了多模型分析。首先,选取常见的河间地块问题,以渗流区岩性分布的不确定性为研究对象,构建了多模型方案,模拟得到了预测潜水位及其置信区间。岩性分布不确定性由置信区间的变化得到了很好的体现,验证了多模型分析方法的实用性。
基于非稳定井流溶质运移问题,评价了建模过程中网格单元尺度选择和渗透系数场随机生成过程中抽样、插值等不确定因素对模拟的影响。分析了不同位置观测孔的浓度变化特征以及污染羽形态差异,结果表明网格单元尺度对模拟结果影响最大,抽样误差次之,克里格插值方法最小。研究还指出了AICc准则评价网格尺度、渗透系数随机分布等不确定性的局限性。
针对雅砻江锦屏二级水电站工程区的隧洞涌水问题,在MODFLOW环境下建立了5种工况下的三维稳定流模型,讨论了复杂构造所引起的参数方案不确定性,利用UCODE程序优化了参数,使用多模型方法预测了防渗前后隧洞群的总涌水量分别为40.35 m~3/s和31.19 m~3/s。
包括渗透结构在内的各种水文地质条件的不确定性,都应该作为多模型分析的对象。在系统分析概念模型不确定性的基础之上,选用分布式地下水数值模拟程序MODFLOW,建立了太原地区岩溶地下水系统的多模型分析框架,全面、系统地研究了1956年至1994年气候变化和人类活动影响下的晋祠泉和兰村泉泉流量衰减过程。
研究取得了几点认识:1)将东山岩溶水系统纳入研究区的模拟效果更好;2)晋祠、兰村泉域地下水系统不存在所谓的可变边界;3)渗透系数垂向上衰减程度的差异所引起的不确定性大于补给方式;4)晋祠泉对降雨量变化较敏感,降水量减少和开采增加都是致使晋祠断流的重要原因。
网格尺度不确定性对模拟有着重要影响,但往往被研究者忽视,为了探讨评价此类不确定性的方法,进行了数值试验。试验分析了模型网格大小不同所导致的渗透系数分布的差异,以及布置井、河流和观测孔等要素的变化,基于AICc的多模型分析结果表明,传统的信息量准则并不适于评价网格尺度因素引起的模拟不确定性。为此,提出了基于网格尺度的信息量准则GIC (Grid Information Criterion),实现了对AICc准则的改进。
Uncertainty is one of the inherent natures of the whole world, and exists in all scientific subjects. It has been a focus to analyze and assess the uncertainties in groundwater modeling. In the recent decade, hydrogeologists have paid increasing attention to Multiple Model Analysis (MMA), making it more and more popular in modeling practices.
MMA was applied to study the uncertainties due to the permeability of media including the lithologic character, the random distribution of hydraulic conductivity, and the complicated structure of fractured media. First, we studied a common problem about groundwater seepage to parallel ditches. According to the uncertainty of lithology distribution, a serial of models were constructed to predict the elevation of water table and calculate its confidence interval. The practicablity of MMA was verified by the correspondence between water level variation and lithologic heterogeneity.
Then we evaluated the scale effect of grid on solute transport simulation on the basis of a transit well flow. The errors of sampling and interpolation were also taken into account in the process of generation of the random hydraulic conductivity field. The characteristics of observed concentration at three points and the difference of contaminant plume patterns were compared. Results show that the grid scale has the most influence on simulation, the sampling error next, and the kriging interpolation method the least. Additionally, this study pointed out the corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc) is deficient to evaluate the uncertainty of grid scale as well as the randomicity of hydraulic conductivity.
Third, three-dimensional steady state flow models under five different scenarios were established within MODFLOW, to predict the water inflow in tunnels of JinpingⅡhydropower station. We discussed the parameterization uncertainty caused by conceptualization of complex fracture structure. UCODE was employed to optimize parameters, the models selected by MMA forecasted water inflows in all tunnels before and after waterproof protections, and the results are 40.35 and 31.19 m~3/s, respectively.
Besides the permeability of media, uncertainties of hydrogeological conditions need to be studied. After thoroughly illustrating the uncertainties of conceptualization for karst groundwater system in Taiyuan area, we applied the distribuated hydrogeological model MODFLOW to simulate the attenuation process of discharge rate of Jinci and Lancun springs from 1956 to 1994. Both climate change and human activities are the main factors concerned.
Understandings obtained including: 1) it is better to take the East Mountain area into consideration to be an entire problem domain. 2) there is no so-called variable boundary between Jinci and Lancun groundwater subsystems. 3) uncertaity resulted from different degrees of depth-decay of hydraulic conductivity is greater than that caused by various recharge patterns. 4) Jinci springs are more sensitive to changes of interannual rainfall; both the reduction of precipitation and the increase of groundwater exploitation caused the springs stopped flow.
It is often neglected by modelers that the uncertainty of grid scale plays important role to numerical simulation. We conducted experiments to explore the methods to assess this uncertainty. Different sizes of grid cell with respect to the same hydrogeological problem can result in resolution variation of hyaulic conductivity, and lead to other design changes related to elements such as wells, rivers, and observations etc. MMA results using AICc show that the traditional information criterion is not suitable for evaluation of grid scale effect. Therefore, we proposed a new criterion named Grid Information Criterion (GIC), and proved it is an improvement of AICc by a numerical test.
引文
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