流域水资源可持续利用评价方法及其应用研究
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摘要
水是生命的源泉,是人类赖以生存的不可替代的资源。水资源是人类生产和生活不可缺少的自然资源,也是生物赖以生存的环境资源和支撑国民经济健康发展的经济资源。目前,水资源已逐渐成为现代社会的“瓶颈”资源,严重地制约着一个地区、国家乃至全球的发展。当今世界面临的人口、资源和环境三大课题中,水已成为关键的问题。水资源的可持续利用,是实现社会、经济以及生态环境可持续发展极为重要的保证。水资源可持续利用是可持续发展框架下水资源利用的一种新模式,也是解决水资源危机的唯一方法。北京市密云水库上游——潮河流域发源于河北省承德市丰宁县,是目前首都北京的重要水源地和生态屏障。做好潮河流域水资源可持续开发利用无疑对解决北京地区社会经济发展中的水资源短缺、水环境污染和生态恶化等问题显得至关重要。本文在查阅国内外相关文献资料和充分吸收前人研究成果的基础上,采用理论与方法研究和实例应用相结合的技术路线,以潮河流域为例,取得了如下主要研究成果：
1、利用AHM等方法探索了未确知系统理论在潮河流域水资源可持续开发利用评价中的应用问题,建立了模糊综合评估系统中指标权值计算模型。
2、在研究水循环和水量转换规律的基础上,以潮河流域为研究范围,根据供水系统和需水系统相互制约关系的理论内涵,对常用的水资源利用措施在社会经济环境系统中的作用,进行系统动力学的动态仿真模拟,并对模拟结果进行多个因素的综合评价,能够从定量的角度说明措施在系统中的长期影响。
3、首次在潮河流域系统论证了实施虚拟水贸易及虚拟水战略的紧迫性和实施水银行制度的必要性。
4、阐述了用于分类的支持向量机(SVC)和用于回归的支持向量机(SVR)的基本实现方法,并将SVC和SVR分别应用于潮河流域水资源可持续利用评价中,得到了符合实际的评价结果,为可持续发展评价提供了一条新的思路和途径。
5、结合潮河流域实际情况建立水资源优化配置模型,并通过蚁群算法的鲁棒性反演各个部门的用水效益系数,同时确定模型中的其他参数,求解得到基本和平衡两种方案下潮河流域三个水平年不同频率下的优化配置结果。
6、结合流域可持续发展的特点,尝试将人工鱼群算法应用于潮河流域水资源可持续利用评价的多指标参数组合模型的优化,得出了适用于潮河流域水资源可持续利用评价参数化多指标评价公式,公式对实例的评价结果与实况基本符合。
7、提出了潮河流域水资源合理配置保障措施。
Water is vital headspring and also is nonreplaceable resource of human being depending on survive. Water resources are indispensable natural resources of humanbeing in producing and living and also are economic resources of supporting healthy development of national economy& environmemntal resources of living being depending on survive. Water resources have already changed modern social bottle-neck resources by degrees and have badly restricted developmemt of a district a nation or even the global at present. Water resources have already become key problem in 3 tasks of population resources and environment of world facing nowadays. Sustainable utilization of water resources is of great important ensure realizing sustainable development of society economy and ecology environment. Sustainable utilization of water resources is a kind of new mode of utilization of water resources under sustainable development frame and also is only method solving water resources crisis. Chaohe river basin, is situated at upstream of Miyun reservoir in Beijing Municipality, originates from Fengning County Chengteh Municipality Hebei Province, are important water source and ecological barrier in capital Beijing at present. It is very important of doing well sustainable development and utilization of water resources in Chaohe river basin to solve problems of water resources shortage water resources pollution and ecological deterioration in Beijing region's socioeconomic development undoubtedly. The author has gained main research findings, a case study of Chaohe river basin, using technical line of combining with theory& mothod study and application example, on the basis of combined the domestic and international relevant documents& materials and based on the achievements of predecessors.
1.The application problem of Unascertained systems theory in Chaohe river basin sustainable development and utilization of water resources evaluation has been explored using AHM etc and index weight values calculation model in the fuzzy synthetical evaluation system has been set up.
2.The dynamic analog simulation of system dynamics has been completed and the analog result has been overall evaluated of more factors and long term effect of measures in the system has been explained at the angle of quantitative for commonly used utilization of water resources measures in the action of socioeconomic environment system, on the basis of theoretical connotation of interrestriction with water supply and water need systems, taking Chaohe river basin as field of resarch, on the basis of studying water cycle and water quantity conversion rule.
3.The urgency of implementing virtual water trade& virtual water strategy and the necessity of implementing water bank system have been system argumentated in Chaohe river basin for the first time.
4. A basic way to realize of SVC and SVR has been described and have been used Chaohe river basin evaluation of the sustainable usage of water resource and a practicable evaluation conclusion has been obtained and a new idea and approach have been offered for sustainable development evaluation.
5.The optimizing configuration results have been obtained of different frequency in three level years and basic& balance schemes in Chaohe river basin, confirming other parameters in the model at the same time, inversion water utilization benefit coefficient of various departments by benefit coefficient robustness, setting up water resources optimal allocation combining Chaohe river basin practical situation.
6. Artificial fish-swarm algorithm has been tried to use in multicriteria parametric combination model optimization of Chaohe river basin evaluation of the sustainable usage of water resource combining basin sustainable development characteristics and parametric multiindex evaluation formula has been obtained suitable for Chaohe river basin evaluation of the sustainable usage of water resource. The evaluation result of the formula calculating the example comes near to the factual value.
7.Water resources reasonable configuration safeguard measures in Chaohe river basin have been put forward.
1、利用AHM等方法探索了未确知系统理论在潮河流域水资源可持续开发利用评价中的应用问题,建立了模糊综合评估系统中指标权值计算模型。
2、在研究水循环和水量转换规律的基础上,以潮河流域为研究范围,根据供水系统和需水系统相互制约关系的理论内涵,对常用的水资源利用措施在社会经济环境系统中的作用,进行系统动力学的动态仿真模拟,并对模拟结果进行多个因素的综合评价,能够从定量的角度说明措施在系统中的长期影响。
3、首次在潮河流域系统论证了实施虚拟水贸易及虚拟水战略的紧迫性和实施水银行制度的必要性。
4、阐述了用于分类的支持向量机(SVC)和用于回归的支持向量机(SVR)的基本实现方法,并将SVC和SVR分别应用于潮河流域水资源可持续利用评价中,得到了符合实际的评价结果,为可持续发展评价提供了一条新的思路和途径。
5、结合潮河流域实际情况建立水资源优化配置模型,并通过蚁群算法的鲁棒性反演各个部门的用水效益系数,同时确定模型中的其他参数,求解得到基本和平衡两种方案下潮河流域三个水平年不同频率下的优化配置结果。
6、结合流域可持续发展的特点,尝试将人工鱼群算法应用于潮河流域水资源可持续利用评价的多指标参数组合模型的优化,得出了适用于潮河流域水资源可持续利用评价参数化多指标评价公式,公式对实例的评价结果与实况基本符合。
7、提出了潮河流域水资源合理配置保障措施。
Water is vital headspring and also is nonreplaceable resource of human being depending on survive. Water resources are indispensable natural resources of humanbeing in producing and living and also are economic resources of supporting healthy development of national economy& environmemntal resources of living being depending on survive. Water resources have already changed modern social bottle-neck resources by degrees and have badly restricted developmemt of a district a nation or even the global at present. Water resources have already become key problem in 3 tasks of population resources and environment of world facing nowadays. Sustainable utilization of water resources is of great important ensure realizing sustainable development of society economy and ecology environment. Sustainable utilization of water resources is a kind of new mode of utilization of water resources under sustainable development frame and also is only method solving water resources crisis. Chaohe river basin, is situated at upstream of Miyun reservoir in Beijing Municipality, originates from Fengning County Chengteh Municipality Hebei Province, are important water source and ecological barrier in capital Beijing at present. It is very important of doing well sustainable development and utilization of water resources in Chaohe river basin to solve problems of water resources shortage water resources pollution and ecological deterioration in Beijing region's socioeconomic development undoubtedly. The author has gained main research findings, a case study of Chaohe river basin, using technical line of combining with theory& mothod study and application example, on the basis of combined the domestic and international relevant documents& materials and based on the achievements of predecessors.
1.The application problem of Unascertained systems theory in Chaohe river basin sustainable development and utilization of water resources evaluation has been explored using AHM etc and index weight values calculation model in the fuzzy synthetical evaluation system has been set up.
2.The dynamic analog simulation of system dynamics has been completed and the analog result has been overall evaluated of more factors and long term effect of measures in the system has been explained at the angle of quantitative for commonly used utilization of water resources measures in the action of socioeconomic environment system, on the basis of theoretical connotation of interrestriction with water supply and water need systems, taking Chaohe river basin as field of resarch, on the basis of studying water cycle and water quantity conversion rule.
3.The urgency of implementing virtual water trade& virtual water strategy and the necessity of implementing water bank system have been system argumentated in Chaohe river basin for the first time.
4. A basic way to realize of SVC and SVR has been described and have been used Chaohe river basin evaluation of the sustainable usage of water resource and a practicable evaluation conclusion has been obtained and a new idea and approach have been offered for sustainable development evaluation.
5.The optimizing configuration results have been obtained of different frequency in three level years and basic& balance schemes in Chaohe river basin, confirming other parameters in the model at the same time, inversion water utilization benefit coefficient of various departments by benefit coefficient robustness, setting up water resources optimal allocation combining Chaohe river basin practical situation.
6. Artificial fish-swarm algorithm has been tried to use in multicriteria parametric combination model optimization of Chaohe river basin evaluation of the sustainable usage of water resource combining basin sustainable development characteristics and parametric multiindex evaluation formula has been obtained suitable for Chaohe river basin evaluation of the sustainable usage of water resource. The evaluation result of the formula calculating the example comes near to the factual value.
7.Water resources reasonable configuration safeguard measures in Chaohe river basin have been put forward.
引文
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