化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理研究
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摘要
安全生产关系人民群众生命财产安全,关系改革开放、经济发展、全面推进建设小康社会、加快社会主义现代化和社会稳定的大局,是经济发展和社会进步的前提与保障,是落实科学发展观的必然要求与构建和谐社会的重要方面,是安全发展的核心内容和基本任务。化学工业园区是现代化学工业为适应资源或原料转换,顺应经营国际化、集约化、大型化、最优化和效益最大化发展趋势的产物,是化工行业取得长期发展的主导方向。随着我国经济的迅猛发展和化学工业园区建设热潮的兴起,化学工业园区的数量与日俱增。据不完全统计,通过近十几年的发展,我国迄今拥有省级以上人民政府批准建设的新建化学工业园区达60多个。化学工业园区的建设与发展在促进当地经济和化工产业发展的同时,也带来了新的安全问题,由于化学工业园区内多为石油化工企业,生产、储存、使用、经营、运输和处置着大量易燃、易爆、有毒等的危险化学品,且园区内重大危险源众多,一旦发生火灾、爆炸或危险化学品泄漏扩散事故,极易造成严重的后果。另外,化学工业园区内企业相对密集,如果某一单个化工企业发生重大事故就很有可能波及与之相邻的企业,从而引发灾难性的“多米诺骨牌”连锁效应。其主要原因之一是对化学工业园区的安全规划与风险管理缺乏全面的认识,现有的化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理体系还不健全,有待进一步的探讨和完善。因此,本文就此展开研究,以期为化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理提供一种新的理论框架和方法体系。
化学工业园区安全规划是实现风险管理重心由事后处置向事前预防的转变,是实现事故管理向风险危机管理的转变,从化学工业园区经济可持续发展的战略高度,对园区建设和土地利用进行合理规划,对园区危险源进行优化布局、调整分散,对消防、医疗等应急资源进行有效配置,是从宏观角度实现园区整体安全发展与和谐统一的一种必要手段,同时也是风险管理内容的重要组成部分。如何对化学工业园区进行科学、合理、有效的安全规划与风险管理,预防和控制潜在的重特大事故,降低其造成的损失和影响,以确保化学工业园区的生产安全和社会稳定,实现化工企业良性、可持续发展,已经成为各级政府、园区建设者与管理者日益关心、关注和需要解决的核心、热点问题。国家安全生产监督管理总局编制的《国家“十一五”安全生产科技发展规划》中,将化学工业园区安全规划关键技术作为60个优先发展的安全生产科技研究方向之一,也再次将化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理作为园区长期稳定建设与发展的重点。
目前针对化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的研究是一项新的课题,国内外尚处于探索阶段,化学工业园区的风险管理能力还比较弱。因此,为了有效预防和控制化学工业园区重特大事故的发生,对化学工业园区进行科学、合理、有效的安全规划和风险管理的需求空前增长。本文以此作为研究的切入点,选取一个具体的化学工业园区作为研究对象,建立适合我国国情和具有可操作性的化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理理论方法体系,从而科学、有效、系统的对园区实行风险管理,最大可能地避免、控制、减轻安全生产事故可能造成的人员伤亡、财产损失与环境破坏,进而促进化学工业园区的安全发展。本文首先从化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的基础理论、国内外研究现状、研究的目的和意义以及目前研究存在的主要问题出发,探讨了基于最大可信事故的化学工业园区风险分析方法,并通过风险评估模型计算出最大可信事故死亡、重伤、轻伤半径和化学工业园区最大可信事故概率；其次,提出了园区安全规划的方法、拟建和已建化学工业园区安全规划的基本程序以及园区安全规划的主要内容,并确定了化学工业园区安全功能区划分的方法和标准,可以作为园区安全功能区划分的参考依据；然后论文从事故预防理论的角度建立了化学工业园区风险管理体系,重点探讨了化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系与应急管理体系的构建过程；最后论文将建立的化学工业园区风险水平指标体系进行了实例应用研究,采用模糊数学综合评价法对化学工业园区风险水平进行了评价,并选用层次分析法计算各评价指标的权重,计算出化学工业园区的风险水平等级,找出化学工业园区在预防和控制风险方面存在的缺陷和不足,并提出相应改善和提高园区风险管理水平的对策措施及建议。
归纳起来,本论文研究的内容主要包括以下七个部分：
第一章主要阐述了化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的研究背景和存在的问题、国内外研究现状、研究的目的和意义、研究的内容和方法、研究的范围、技术路线。
第二章首先阐述了化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的基本概念和基础理论,然后分析了化学工业园区安全规划与风险研究存在的主要问题,为提出基于最大可信事故的化学工业园区风险分析方法、安全规划理论方法体系、风险管理体系、风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系奠定了基础。
化学工业园区风险分析是对园区进行安全规划和风险管理的基础,论文第三章从化学工业园区发生重大事故的类型及影响因素出发,探讨了对化学工业园区进行风险辨识的重点以及园区重点区域(储罐和仓库储存区、生产装置区、码头装卸区等)风险辨识应该包括的内容,根据基于最大可信事故的化学工业园区风险分析方法计算园区最大可信事故概率,并将此方法应用于实例研究中,通过风险评估模型计算最大可信事故的死亡半径、重伤半径和轻伤半径,作为下一章化学工业园区安全规划的参考依据。
论文第四章首先探讨了化学工业园区安全规划的方法,分别提出了拟建和已建化学工业园区安全规划的基本程序。其次,提出了化学工业园区安全规划的主要内容应该包括化学工业园区整体风险分析、化工企业选址及平面布局、确定企业安全生产入园许可、构建园区风险管理模式及方法、建立园区应急救援体系。然后提出了化学工业园区安全功能区划分的方法和标准,可以作为园区安全功能区划分的参考依据。最后在第三章基于最大可信事故化学工业园区风险分析的基础之上,将本章的安全规划技术方法应用于实例研究当中,进一步探讨了化学工业园区安全规划技术方法的具体应用。
第五章在化学工业园区风险分析和安全规划技术研究的基础上,建立了适合我国化学工业园区的风险管理体系,主要包括园区安全规划管理体系、安全生产监督管理体系、风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系。然后根据化学工业园区有别于单个化工企业的需要,重点介绍了化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系的构建过程,并建立了化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系。化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系应该包括六个指标,即园区整体规划指标、园区社会经济状况指标、园区环境质量状况指标、园区企业安全水平指标、园区企业间相互影响指标、园区应急能力指标；化学工业园区应急管理体系应该包括园区应急预案体系、应急管理“三制(法制、体制和机制)”、应急能力评估体系、应急管理信息平台。在化学工业园区风险管理过程中,可以运用建立的风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系对园区实行风险评价和应急管理。
第六章采用模糊数学综合评价方法对建立的化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系进行了实例应用研究,选用层次分析法计算各评价指标的权重,强化了各评价指标间权重集的科学与一致性,为模糊综合评价结果的准确性提供了支持。通过模糊数学综合评价建立了化学工业园区风险水平评价集,并对化学工业园区进行了等级评价,计算出化学工业园区的风险水平等级。通过对化学工业园区风险水平等级的评价,可以找出化学工业园区在预防和控制风险方面存在的缺陷和不足,并提出相应改善和提高园区风险管理水平的对策措施及建议。
论文第七章根据前面几章的研究成果,概括了本论文的主要研究成果及创新性,以及研究过程中存在的问题,并提出了下一阶段化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的研究展望。
为了更好体现论文中提出的理论方法体系的实用性、可行性和可操作性,本论文把江苏省无锡市一个具体的化学工业园区实例运用于每一章节的阐述中。提出的安全规划技术方法、风险管理体系以及风险水平评价指标体系对化学工业园区安全规划、风险管理及风险评价均具有一定的指导作用,同时从事故预防和本质安全理论的角度,为有效的预防化学工业园区重大恶性事故的发生、改善和提高化学工业园区风险管理水平具有十分重要的指导意义。
Work safety relates the people's lives and property, the reform and opening, the economic development, promotes comprehensively the construction of well-to-do society, accelerates the socialist modernization and social stability. It is the premise and guarantee for the economic development and social progress, is the requirement for implement the scientific development concept and the important aspect for building the harmonious society, is the core content and basic task for safety development. The chemical industry park is the product that the modern chemical industry adapts to the resources or raw materials conversion, complies with the international, intensive, large-scale operation, the development trend for the optimization and the most efficiency. It is the leading direction for achieving the long-term development of the chemical industry. With the rapid economic development and boom of building the chemical industry park in China, the number of chemical industry park is increasing. According to incomplete statistics, so far the number of new sanctified chemical industry park is more than 60 which are approved by the provincial people's government through the development of nearly 10 years. The construction and development of the chemical industry park promotes the development of local economy and chemical industry, it has also brought new safety issue. Because there are many Chemical and Petrochemical Enterprises in the chemical industry park, which produce, deposit, use, manage, transport and dispose the large quantities of flammable, explosive, toxic and hazardous chemicals, and there are also many major hazard installations in the chemical industry park. In case of the accidents of fire, explosion or dangerous chemicals leakage, it has caused easily the serious consequences. In addition, the enterprises are relatively intensive in the chemical park, if one enterprise makes a major accident it will affect neighboring enterprise. It is likely to trigger disastrous chain of domino effect accident. One of the main reasons for such phenomena is that we lack general recognition to safety planning and risk management. The current systems of safety planning and risk management in the chemical industry park are not perfect, they are waiting for the further explored and improved. So, we have researched the problems above in order to provide a new theory framework and methods system for safety planning and risk management of the chemical industry park.
The safety planning of the chemical industry park is a transition of risk management focus, which from accident disposition to prevention. It is also a transition of the management method, which from the accident management to the risk management. It can offer reference for the planning of the chemical park and land using reasonably, distribute and adjust the hazardous installations of chemical industry park optimized, admeasure the emergency resources such as the fire protection and medical treatment efficiently from the strategic height of the area economic and sustainable development. It is a necessary method to achieve the whole safe development and harmonious unity of the chemical park from the macro perspective. It is an important part of the risk management, too. How to carry out the scientific, reasonable, effective safety planning and risk management, and how to prevent and control the potential major accidents and reduce the losses caused by its impact. In order to ensure the work safety and social stability of the chemical industry park, and achieve the healthy and sustainable development in the chemical enterprises, it has become the core and hot issues of the governments at all levels, park managers and builders. In the "Eleventh Five-year Development Planning about Science and Technology for Work Safety" authorized by the State Administration of Work Safety, the key technology of safety planning for the chemical industry park is considered the one of the sixty priority developmental research directions about science and technology for work safety. Safety planning and risk management are thought the focus again to promote long-term stability construction and development for the chemical industry park.
At present, the research on safety planning and risk management for the chemical industry park is a new subject, still in the exploratory stage at home and abroad, and the risk management capability of the chemical industry park is still quite poor. So, the requirement is unprecedented growth for scientific, rational, effective safety planning and risk management about the chemical industry park in order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of major accidents. As a starting point from the above, this paper selects a specific chemical industry park for the study object, and establishes the theory and method systems for safety planning and risk management of the chemical industry park which are suitable and operable for our country conditions. It can implement the scientific, effective and systemic risk management for the chemical industry park and avoid, control, reduce the casualties, property losses and environment damage as soon as possible, promotes the safe development for the chemical industry park. Firstly, starting from the basic theory, the status at home and abroad, the study purpose and significance, as well as the current main research problems about safety planning and risk management of the chemical industry park, the paper discusses the risk analysis method based on the maximum credible accident, calculates the death, serious and slight injury radius of the maximum credible accident through risk assessment model, and calculates the maximum credible accident probability in the chemical park. Secondly, puts forward the ways of safety planning, the basic procedures for the building and built chemical industry park and the main contents about safety planning, determines the methods and standards for plotting the safety feature zone, it can be the reference for plotting the safety feature zone in the chemical industry park. Thirdly, the paper establishes the risk management system from the perspective of the accident prevention theory, explores the building process about the risk level assessment index system and the emergency management system. Finally, the paper takes an example for application research about the risk level assessment index system, assesses the risk level using the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, calculates the weight using the AHP, and the risk level about the chemical industry park. According to the calculation, identifies the defects and shortcomings about the preventing and controlling the risk, and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions in order to improve and enhance the risk management level of the chemical industry park.
To sum up, the thesis includes the following seven contents:
The first chapter analyzes the research backgroung and problems, status at home and abroad, purpose and significance, contents and methods, scope and technical routes in this thesis.
The second chapter describes the basic theory and concept about the safety planning and risk management firstly, then analyzes the main problems during researching safety planning and risk management of the chemical park. It establishes the foundation for putting forward risk analysis method about the chemical industry park based on the maximum credible accident, the theory and method system about safety planning, the risk management system, the risk assessment index system about risk level and the emergency management system.
The risk analysis of the chemical industry park is the base for the safety planning and risk management. The third chapter explores the keystone and the including content of key areas(tanks and warehouse storage areas, production equipments areas, the dock working areas, etc.) about risk identification of the chemical industry park, and calculates the maximum credible accident probability in the chemical park according to the method based on the maximum credible accident. Then, applies the method to the case research, calculates the death, serious and slight injury radius of the maximum credible accident through risk assessment model, and calculates the maximum credible accident probability in the chemical park. The calculation results may provide the reference for safety planning of the chemical industry park in the next chapter.
The fourth chapter explores the methods about safety planning of chemical industry park firstly, puts forward the basic safety planning procedures about the building and built chemical industry park respectively. Secondly, puts forward particularly the including contents during safety planning for the chemical industry park, such as the overall risk analysis, the site selection and layout for the chemical industry, determining the permission for admission, building risk management models and ways, building emergency rescue system. Thirdly, puts forward the methods and standards to plot the safety feature zone in the chemical industry park. Finally, according the results of the third chapter, applies the technology methods of safety planning to the case research which further explores the specific application of safety planning in the chemical industry park.
The fifth chapter establishes particularly the risk management system which is suitable for our country on the base of risk analysis and safety planning for the chemical park, including safety planning system, work safety supervision and management system, assessment index system of risk levels, emergency management system. Then, according to the difference with the individual chemical enterprise, introduces the building process about the assessment index system of risk level and emergency management system. The assessment index system of risk level should include six indexes, such as the overall planning index, the socioeconomic status index, environment quality index, safety level index, mutual impact index between enterprises, emergency response index. The emergency management system should include emergency plan system, emergency management three-systems(rules, systems, mechanisms), emergency capability evaluation system and emergency management information system. We can assess and manage the chemical industry park through the established assessment index system of risk level and emergency management system during risk management in the chemical industry park.
The sixth chapter carries out the application research about the assessment index system of risk level according to the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, calculates the weights about the assessment indexes by the AHP which strengthens the scientific and consistent features between the assessment indexes, and provides the support for the accuracy about assessment results. The thesis establishes assessment sets about risk level assessment by the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, and assesses the risk level about the chemical industry park, calculates the risk level grade of the chemical industry park. We can find the defects and shortcomings on preventing and controlling risk according to the assessment result, and put forward the appropriate countermeasures and suggestions to improve and enhance the risk management level of the chemical industry park.
According to the research results above, the seventh chapter summarizes the main conclusions, innovation and problems during the research in the thesis, and puts forward the research prospects for safety planning and risk management of the chemical industry park in the next phase.
In order to better reflect the practicality, feasibility, operability of the theory and method systems analyzed in the thesis, this thesis takes a specific chemical industry park example which locates Wuxi, Jiangsu Province into analyzing in every chapter. The methods which are studied in the thesis about safety planning, risk management system and assessment index system of risk level have a certain guiding function for safety planning, risk management and risk level assessment about the chemical industry park. At the same time, they have also great direction significance to prevent effectively the occurrence of major accidents, improve and enhance the risk management level of the chemical industry park from theory point about the accident prevention and intrinsical safety.
化学工业园区安全规划是实现风险管理重心由事后处置向事前预防的转变,是实现事故管理向风险危机管理的转变,从化学工业园区经济可持续发展的战略高度,对园区建设和土地利用进行合理规划,对园区危险源进行优化布局、调整分散,对消防、医疗等应急资源进行有效配置,是从宏观角度实现园区整体安全发展与和谐统一的一种必要手段,同时也是风险管理内容的重要组成部分。如何对化学工业园区进行科学、合理、有效的安全规划与风险管理,预防和控制潜在的重特大事故,降低其造成的损失和影响,以确保化学工业园区的生产安全和社会稳定,实现化工企业良性、可持续发展,已经成为各级政府、园区建设者与管理者日益关心、关注和需要解决的核心、热点问题。国家安全生产监督管理总局编制的《国家“十一五”安全生产科技发展规划》中,将化学工业园区安全规划关键技术作为60个优先发展的安全生产科技研究方向之一,也再次将化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理作为园区长期稳定建设与发展的重点。
目前针对化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的研究是一项新的课题,国内外尚处于探索阶段,化学工业园区的风险管理能力还比较弱。因此,为了有效预防和控制化学工业园区重特大事故的发生,对化学工业园区进行科学、合理、有效的安全规划和风险管理的需求空前增长。本文以此作为研究的切入点,选取一个具体的化学工业园区作为研究对象,建立适合我国国情和具有可操作性的化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理理论方法体系,从而科学、有效、系统的对园区实行风险管理,最大可能地避免、控制、减轻安全生产事故可能造成的人员伤亡、财产损失与环境破坏,进而促进化学工业园区的安全发展。本文首先从化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的基础理论、国内外研究现状、研究的目的和意义以及目前研究存在的主要问题出发,探讨了基于最大可信事故的化学工业园区风险分析方法,并通过风险评估模型计算出最大可信事故死亡、重伤、轻伤半径和化学工业园区最大可信事故概率；其次,提出了园区安全规划的方法、拟建和已建化学工业园区安全规划的基本程序以及园区安全规划的主要内容,并确定了化学工业园区安全功能区划分的方法和标准,可以作为园区安全功能区划分的参考依据；然后论文从事故预防理论的角度建立了化学工业园区风险管理体系,重点探讨了化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系与应急管理体系的构建过程；最后论文将建立的化学工业园区风险水平指标体系进行了实例应用研究,采用模糊数学综合评价法对化学工业园区风险水平进行了评价,并选用层次分析法计算各评价指标的权重,计算出化学工业园区的风险水平等级,找出化学工业园区在预防和控制风险方面存在的缺陷和不足,并提出相应改善和提高园区风险管理水平的对策措施及建议。
归纳起来,本论文研究的内容主要包括以下七个部分：
第一章主要阐述了化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的研究背景和存在的问题、国内外研究现状、研究的目的和意义、研究的内容和方法、研究的范围、技术路线。
第二章首先阐述了化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的基本概念和基础理论,然后分析了化学工业园区安全规划与风险研究存在的主要问题,为提出基于最大可信事故的化学工业园区风险分析方法、安全规划理论方法体系、风险管理体系、风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系奠定了基础。
化学工业园区风险分析是对园区进行安全规划和风险管理的基础,论文第三章从化学工业园区发生重大事故的类型及影响因素出发,探讨了对化学工业园区进行风险辨识的重点以及园区重点区域(储罐和仓库储存区、生产装置区、码头装卸区等)风险辨识应该包括的内容,根据基于最大可信事故的化学工业园区风险分析方法计算园区最大可信事故概率,并将此方法应用于实例研究中,通过风险评估模型计算最大可信事故的死亡半径、重伤半径和轻伤半径,作为下一章化学工业园区安全规划的参考依据。
论文第四章首先探讨了化学工业园区安全规划的方法,分别提出了拟建和已建化学工业园区安全规划的基本程序。其次,提出了化学工业园区安全规划的主要内容应该包括化学工业园区整体风险分析、化工企业选址及平面布局、确定企业安全生产入园许可、构建园区风险管理模式及方法、建立园区应急救援体系。然后提出了化学工业园区安全功能区划分的方法和标准,可以作为园区安全功能区划分的参考依据。最后在第三章基于最大可信事故化学工业园区风险分析的基础之上,将本章的安全规划技术方法应用于实例研究当中,进一步探讨了化学工业园区安全规划技术方法的具体应用。
第五章在化学工业园区风险分析和安全规划技术研究的基础上,建立了适合我国化学工业园区的风险管理体系,主要包括园区安全规划管理体系、安全生产监督管理体系、风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系。然后根据化学工业园区有别于单个化工企业的需要,重点介绍了化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系的构建过程,并建立了化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系。化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系应该包括六个指标,即园区整体规划指标、园区社会经济状况指标、园区环境质量状况指标、园区企业安全水平指标、园区企业间相互影响指标、园区应急能力指标；化学工业园区应急管理体系应该包括园区应急预案体系、应急管理“三制(法制、体制和机制)”、应急能力评估体系、应急管理信息平台。在化学工业园区风险管理过程中,可以运用建立的风险水平评价指标体系和应急管理体系对园区实行风险评价和应急管理。
第六章采用模糊数学综合评价方法对建立的化学工业园区风险水平评价指标体系进行了实例应用研究,选用层次分析法计算各评价指标的权重,强化了各评价指标间权重集的科学与一致性,为模糊综合评价结果的准确性提供了支持。通过模糊数学综合评价建立了化学工业园区风险水平评价集,并对化学工业园区进行了等级评价,计算出化学工业园区的风险水平等级。通过对化学工业园区风险水平等级的评价,可以找出化学工业园区在预防和控制风险方面存在的缺陷和不足,并提出相应改善和提高园区风险管理水平的对策措施及建议。
论文第七章根据前面几章的研究成果,概括了本论文的主要研究成果及创新性,以及研究过程中存在的问题,并提出了下一阶段化学工业园区安全规划与风险管理的研究展望。
为了更好体现论文中提出的理论方法体系的实用性、可行性和可操作性,本论文把江苏省无锡市一个具体的化学工业园区实例运用于每一章节的阐述中。提出的安全规划技术方法、风险管理体系以及风险水平评价指标体系对化学工业园区安全规划、风险管理及风险评价均具有一定的指导作用,同时从事故预防和本质安全理论的角度,为有效的预防化学工业园区重大恶性事故的发生、改善和提高化学工业园区风险管理水平具有十分重要的指导意义。
Work safety relates the people's lives and property, the reform and opening, the economic development, promotes comprehensively the construction of well-to-do society, accelerates the socialist modernization and social stability. It is the premise and guarantee for the economic development and social progress, is the requirement for implement the scientific development concept and the important aspect for building the harmonious society, is the core content and basic task for safety development. The chemical industry park is the product that the modern chemical industry adapts to the resources or raw materials conversion, complies with the international, intensive, large-scale operation, the development trend for the optimization and the most efficiency. It is the leading direction for achieving the long-term development of the chemical industry. With the rapid economic development and boom of building the chemical industry park in China, the number of chemical industry park is increasing. According to incomplete statistics, so far the number of new sanctified chemical industry park is more than 60 which are approved by the provincial people's government through the development of nearly 10 years. The construction and development of the chemical industry park promotes the development of local economy and chemical industry, it has also brought new safety issue. Because there are many Chemical and Petrochemical Enterprises in the chemical industry park, which produce, deposit, use, manage, transport and dispose the large quantities of flammable, explosive, toxic and hazardous chemicals, and there are also many major hazard installations in the chemical industry park. In case of the accidents of fire, explosion or dangerous chemicals leakage, it has caused easily the serious consequences. In addition, the enterprises are relatively intensive in the chemical park, if one enterprise makes a major accident it will affect neighboring enterprise. It is likely to trigger disastrous chain of domino effect accident. One of the main reasons for such phenomena is that we lack general recognition to safety planning and risk management. The current systems of safety planning and risk management in the chemical industry park are not perfect, they are waiting for the further explored and improved. So, we have researched the problems above in order to provide a new theory framework and methods system for safety planning and risk management of the chemical industry park.
The safety planning of the chemical industry park is a transition of risk management focus, which from accident disposition to prevention. It is also a transition of the management method, which from the accident management to the risk management. It can offer reference for the planning of the chemical park and land using reasonably, distribute and adjust the hazardous installations of chemical industry park optimized, admeasure the emergency resources such as the fire protection and medical treatment efficiently from the strategic height of the area economic and sustainable development. It is a necessary method to achieve the whole safe development and harmonious unity of the chemical park from the macro perspective. It is an important part of the risk management, too. How to carry out the scientific, reasonable, effective safety planning and risk management, and how to prevent and control the potential major accidents and reduce the losses caused by its impact. In order to ensure the work safety and social stability of the chemical industry park, and achieve the healthy and sustainable development in the chemical enterprises, it has become the core and hot issues of the governments at all levels, park managers and builders. In the "Eleventh Five-year Development Planning about Science and Technology for Work Safety" authorized by the State Administration of Work Safety, the key technology of safety planning for the chemical industry park is considered the one of the sixty priority developmental research directions about science and technology for work safety. Safety planning and risk management are thought the focus again to promote long-term stability construction and development for the chemical industry park.
At present, the research on safety planning and risk management for the chemical industry park is a new subject, still in the exploratory stage at home and abroad, and the risk management capability of the chemical industry park is still quite poor. So, the requirement is unprecedented growth for scientific, rational, effective safety planning and risk management about the chemical industry park in order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of major accidents. As a starting point from the above, this paper selects a specific chemical industry park for the study object, and establishes the theory and method systems for safety planning and risk management of the chemical industry park which are suitable and operable for our country conditions. It can implement the scientific, effective and systemic risk management for the chemical industry park and avoid, control, reduce the casualties, property losses and environment damage as soon as possible, promotes the safe development for the chemical industry park. Firstly, starting from the basic theory, the status at home and abroad, the study purpose and significance, as well as the current main research problems about safety planning and risk management of the chemical industry park, the paper discusses the risk analysis method based on the maximum credible accident, calculates the death, serious and slight injury radius of the maximum credible accident through risk assessment model, and calculates the maximum credible accident probability in the chemical park. Secondly, puts forward the ways of safety planning, the basic procedures for the building and built chemical industry park and the main contents about safety planning, determines the methods and standards for plotting the safety feature zone, it can be the reference for plotting the safety feature zone in the chemical industry park. Thirdly, the paper establishes the risk management system from the perspective of the accident prevention theory, explores the building process about the risk level assessment index system and the emergency management system. Finally, the paper takes an example for application research about the risk level assessment index system, assesses the risk level using the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, calculates the weight using the AHP, and the risk level about the chemical industry park. According to the calculation, identifies the defects and shortcomings about the preventing and controlling the risk, and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions in order to improve and enhance the risk management level of the chemical industry park.
To sum up, the thesis includes the following seven contents:
The first chapter analyzes the research backgroung and problems, status at home and abroad, purpose and significance, contents and methods, scope and technical routes in this thesis.
The second chapter describes the basic theory and concept about the safety planning and risk management firstly, then analyzes the main problems during researching safety planning and risk management of the chemical park. It establishes the foundation for putting forward risk analysis method about the chemical industry park based on the maximum credible accident, the theory and method system about safety planning, the risk management system, the risk assessment index system about risk level and the emergency management system.
The risk analysis of the chemical industry park is the base for the safety planning and risk management. The third chapter explores the keystone and the including content of key areas(tanks and warehouse storage areas, production equipments areas, the dock working areas, etc.) about risk identification of the chemical industry park, and calculates the maximum credible accident probability in the chemical park according to the method based on the maximum credible accident. Then, applies the method to the case research, calculates the death, serious and slight injury radius of the maximum credible accident through risk assessment model, and calculates the maximum credible accident probability in the chemical park. The calculation results may provide the reference for safety planning of the chemical industry park in the next chapter.
The fourth chapter explores the methods about safety planning of chemical industry park firstly, puts forward the basic safety planning procedures about the building and built chemical industry park respectively. Secondly, puts forward particularly the including contents during safety planning for the chemical industry park, such as the overall risk analysis, the site selection and layout for the chemical industry, determining the permission for admission, building risk management models and ways, building emergency rescue system. Thirdly, puts forward the methods and standards to plot the safety feature zone in the chemical industry park. Finally, according the results of the third chapter, applies the technology methods of safety planning to the case research which further explores the specific application of safety planning in the chemical industry park.
The fifth chapter establishes particularly the risk management system which is suitable for our country on the base of risk analysis and safety planning for the chemical park, including safety planning system, work safety supervision and management system, assessment index system of risk levels, emergency management system. Then, according to the difference with the individual chemical enterprise, introduces the building process about the assessment index system of risk level and emergency management system. The assessment index system of risk level should include six indexes, such as the overall planning index, the socioeconomic status index, environment quality index, safety level index, mutual impact index between enterprises, emergency response index. The emergency management system should include emergency plan system, emergency management three-systems(rules, systems, mechanisms), emergency capability evaluation system and emergency management information system. We can assess and manage the chemical industry park through the established assessment index system of risk level and emergency management system during risk management in the chemical industry park.
The sixth chapter carries out the application research about the assessment index system of risk level according to the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, calculates the weights about the assessment indexes by the AHP which strengthens the scientific and consistent features between the assessment indexes, and provides the support for the accuracy about assessment results. The thesis establishes assessment sets about risk level assessment by the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, and assesses the risk level about the chemical industry park, calculates the risk level grade of the chemical industry park. We can find the defects and shortcomings on preventing and controlling risk according to the assessment result, and put forward the appropriate countermeasures and suggestions to improve and enhance the risk management level of the chemical industry park.
According to the research results above, the seventh chapter summarizes the main conclusions, innovation and problems during the research in the thesis, and puts forward the research prospects for safety planning and risk management of the chemical industry park in the next phase.
In order to better reflect the practicality, feasibility, operability of the theory and method systems analyzed in the thesis, this thesis takes a specific chemical industry park example which locates Wuxi, Jiangsu Province into analyzing in every chapter. The methods which are studied in the thesis about safety planning, risk management system and assessment index system of risk level have a certain guiding function for safety planning, risk management and risk level assessment about the chemical industry park. At the same time, they have also great direction significance to prevent effectively the occurrence of major accidents, improve and enhance the risk management level of the chemical industry park from theory point about the accident prevention and intrinsical safety.
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