基于SLEUTH模型的区域空间演变模拟
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摘要
新世纪我国步入城市化时代,城市的可持续发展要求城市空间的合理成长。然而,目前我国城市空间发展的理论研究却滞后于实际的规划。同时,伴随着城市化进程的加快以及城市人口和用地规模的不断扩大,城市土地利用结构也将随之变化。
城市空间结构的演化体现出了科技的进步以及社会结构、经济结构和政治结构的变革。城市区域空间结构的研究揭示了空间结构演化的形态和机制,探讨了相应的调控理论、调控模式及措施。城市系统的研究重点在于揭示客观事物的演化历程和动力机制、预测城市空间的未来发展和演化路径。
本文从地理时空模拟的角度出发,基于SLEUTH模型综合运用GIS、Markov理论、元胞自动机和空间经济学,构建区域空间演变模型。在模型中,以城市范围、交通等时空数据为基础,根据区域地理空间历史变化提取演变规则；利用基于元胞自动机的SLEUTH模型和随机方法模拟区域地理元胞的生长、繁殖和消亡。并分别对河北省保定市和唐山市的区域时空演变模拟进行实证研究,对其演变过程及区域空间演变机理进行深入分析,探讨了保定市和唐山市区域空间结构优化的设想和策略。
第一部分是绪论部分。对研究背景意义、国内外的研究现状进行论述,并对区域空间演变模拟的可行性进行了分析。
第二部分介绍区域空间结构演变的理论基础。介绍地理模拟系统和区域空间结构演变的联系,对元胞自动机的结构体系进行了系统的探讨。
第三部分介绍城市空间扩展SLEUTH模型原理。分析介绍SLEUTH模型的理论方法和主要思路,以及模型构建所需的基本要素。
第四部分基于SLEUTH模型,以河北省保定市遥感影像等数据为基础对区域空间演变模拟模型理论做初步的实证研究。论述和分析了保定市空间结构演变过程中城市化、边聚及群聚效应的扩展情况。通过区域空间结构演变及现状分析出县市合并有利于保定市区域空间发展。将城市周边的县级市纳入大城市行政区范围,有利于行政集权的整合和资源发展,为区域规划和协调发展创造条件。
第五部分分析保定市区域空间结构演变机制及优化。根据未来保定市城市空间结构的优化设想和策略,提出了区域空间发展的相应对策。1、大城市化发展战略。大城市化过程中产生的规模经济效应将会带动区域内的整体发展；同时考虑优化中心城区用地布局,以提升中心城区实力。
2、融入京、津、冀经济圈。保定城市化的发展过程中,需要通过产业结构升级和产业聚集度加速城市化进程,通过融入京津冀经济发展圈,实现资源共享、优势互补以及通过区域间的竞争提高自身的效率和竞争力优势。通过经济圈内核心城市的辐射以及扩散功能促进其城市化功能。
3、促进区域协调发展。保定区域空间的发展趋势,为保定市空间的扩展奠定了坚实的基础,同时也为京津石的接轨打下了坚实的经济基础。
4、优化生产力布局,提高产业聚集度。加强边缘区工业组团的建设,促进城市外围地区良性发展。
第六部分以河北省唐山市遥感影像等数据为基础,基于地质灾害分布特征,运用SLEUTH模型对唐山市区域空间演变进行模拟和预测。模拟结果分析得出地形坡度对城市发展的巨大影响,唐山市的北部为山地、丘陵地带,滑坡等地质灾害频发,该区域的城市化速率远远小于其他区域。说明地形和地质灾害对城市化发展具有显著的影响。
第七部分通过唐山市各时期城市规划,结合模型预测结果分析,探讨唐山区域空间发展的新趋势。唐山城市空间由过去的集中扎堆式,逐步形成空间总体发展的三大片模式；重点逐步转向沿海城市。根据城市发展进程中存在的地质灾害防治、土地利用规划和城镇发展问题的讨论,提出促进唐山区域空间发展的建议：
1、优化产业格局。对区域空间进行合理的规划,通过对城镇群、冀东沿海地区、次级中心城市三个重点发展地区的规划,理顺中心城市与县城、建制镇、工业点相互之间的关系,逐步形成协调的区域空间格局。
2、合理规划城镇群结构。建立以市区为中心、以县市和滨海新城为纽带、以建制镇为依托的组团式城市群。构造以中心区为主体、以南部沿海城市带及北部山前城市带为两翼的城市发展格局,促进大中小城市和小城镇的协调发展。
3、加速城区间的道路建设。结合唐山市的布局特点对道路交通系统进行统一规划,完善各群体之间的道路交通系统及各城镇内部的道路交通系统规划。
4、加强区域内协作。加强京津冀北地区协调发展,促进环渤海区域经济发展。通过协调发展,加速生产要素聚集,形成产业发展、双向开放的新优势；形成产业协调发展的格局。
第八部分是结论和展望。总结了基于SLEUTH模型的区域空间演变模型的主要结论以及研究的不足之处。
本研究的主要贡献在以下几个方面：
1.借鉴地理学、经济学等多学科理论,在SLEUTH模型的基础上,引入系统科学及复杂性科学思想,模拟区域空间演化,为区域空间结构研究提供了新的研究视角和理论基础。
2.将区域空间结构演变研究建立在城市化研究的基础上,对区域空间发展模式进行了探讨。理论研究与实证分析紧密结合,提出了一个较完整的研究思路并构建了一套新的区域空间结构研究框架。
3.系统地论述了河北省保定市区域空间结构演变过程和机制,深入分析了城市空间结构转变的现状及存在的问题,提出了对保定市区域空间结构优化的对策和建议,具有一定的现实意义。
4、在地质灾害分析的基础上,对唐山市区域空间演化进行了模拟预测。通过对唐山市各时期城市规划的分析并结合唐山市城市发展过程的现状,提出对唐山市区域空间发展的对策和建议。
New century, China entered the era of urbanization, the city's sustainable development requires a reasonable growth of urban space, but the current theory for the development of China's urban space research lagged behind the actual planning. With the acceleration of urbanization process, as well as the urban population and land size continues to expand, urban land use structure has also undergone changes.
Evolution of urban spatial structures reflect the progress of science and technology as well as social structure, economic structure and political structures change. Spatial structure of urban areas as a set of applied and theoretical basis for integrating research, revealing the evolution of the shape space structure and mechanism of the corresponding control theory, control mode and measures. Urban systems research focus is to reveal the history and evolution of objective things, dynamic mechanism to predict the future development of urban space and the evolution of the path.
In this paper, the geographical point of view of space-time simulation, based on SLEUTH model of comprehensive use of GIS, Markov theory, cellular automata and spatial economics, to build regional space model their evolution. In the model to urban areas, transportation and other spatio-temporal data, based on historical change based on the regional geo-spatial evolution of the rules extracted; the use of cellular automata based on the SLEUTH model and the stochastic simulation of regional geography cellular growth, reproduction and die. Respectively, and Tangshan of Hebei Province Baoding City, the simulation of regional spatial and temporal evolution of empirical research, its evolution and the evolution of the mechanism of the regional space-depth analysis of the Baoding and Tangshan City, the idea of regional spatial structure optimization and strategy.
ChapterⅠIntroduction part of the first chapter. Background on the significance of the study at home and abroad discussed the current situation, and the evolution of regional spatial analysis of the feasibility of simulation.
ChapterⅡThe evolution of regional spatial structure of theoretical basis. Description of geographical simulation system and the evolution of regional spatial structure of the link pairs of cellular automata for structural systems were systematically explored.
ChapterⅢThe expansion of the SLEUTH model theory. SLEUTH model analysis describes theoretical approaches and the main ideas, as well as the essential element of model construction.
ChapterⅣBased on SLEUTH model to Baoding, Hebei Province based on remote sensing image data such as the evolution of regional spatial simulation model to do a preliminary empirical study of the theory. Discusses and analyzes the evolution of spatial structure of Baoding in urbanization, margination, and the expansion of cluster effects. Through the regional spatial structure and status quo analysis of the evolution of cities and counties out of the merger in favor of regional spatial development of Baoding. The city into the major cities around the county-level city administrative areas are conducive to the integration of administrative centralization and resource development, regional planning and coordinated development enabler.
ChapterⅤBaoding mechanism and the evolution of regional spatial structure optimization. Baoding city space under the future structure of the optimization ideas and strategy formulation of regional spatial development and appropriate measure.
1.City-oriented development strategy. Major cities of economies of scale generated in the process will lead the overall development of the region; taking into account the optimization of the layout of downtown land in order to enhance the strength of downtown.
2.1nto Beijing, Tianjin,Hebei economic circle. Baoding city-oriented development process, needs to upgrade the industrial structure and industry aggregation degree of acceleration of urbanization process, through integration into the economic development of Tianjin and Hebei circle, sharing resources, complement each other as well as through inter-regional competition to improve their efficiency and competitiveness of advantage. The core of the city through economic circle of radiation and the proliferation of functional capabilities to promote their cities.
3.Promoting coordinated regional development. Baoding regional spatial development trends, the expansion of space for the Baoding has laid a solid foundation, but also for the connection of the Beijing-Tianjin Shi laid a solid economic base.
4.Optimize the productive forces, enhance the degree of industrial aggregation. To strengthen the construction of marginal zone Industrial Base to promote the sound development of the outlying areas of cities.
ChapterⅥHebei Province based on data from remote sensing images, based on distribution characteristics of geological disasters, using SLEUTH model the evolution of Tangshan City Regional Space simulation and prediction. Analysis of simulation results derived terrain slope huge impact on urban development, Tangshan City, north of the mountains and hills, landslides and other geological disasters, the region's urbanization rate is far lower than other regions. Description topography and geological disasters on the development of urbanization has significant impact.
ChapterⅦThrough the period the Tangshan city planning, combined with models to predict the results of analysis to explore the development of Tangshan new trend of regional space. Tangshan urban space from the previous centralized crowding together style, and gradually form a space for the overall development of the three-chip models; the focus gradually shifting coastal cities. According to the process of urban development that exist in geological disaster prevention, land use planning and urban development issues in the discussion on the promotion of regional spatial development of Tangshan suggestions:
1.Optimize the industrial structure. Reasonable on regional spatial planning, through cities and towns groups, Jidong coastal areas, central city 3 focus on the development sub-regional planning, straighten out the central city and the county, towns, industrial relations between points, and gradually form a the coordination of the regional spatial pattern.
2.Rational urban planning group structure. The establishment of the urban area as the center, and coastal county Metro as a link to towns, backed Organized Group model. Constructed to the central area as the main body, to the southern coastal city with a belt and the northern Piedmont city's urban development pattern for the two wings, medium cities and small towns to promote the coordinated development.
3.Speed up the inter-urban road construction. Combination of Tangshan City, the layout of the features of the road traffic system of unified planning, improve the road between the various groups and the urban transportation system within the road traffic system planning.
4.Strengthening regional cooperation. Beijing and Tianjin North to strengthen the coordinated development of regional economic development in the Bohai Sea. Through the coordination of development, accelerate the production elements together, forming industrial development, two-way and open a new advantage; the formation of the pattern of coordinated development of industries.
ChapterⅧSummarizes the conclusions and outlook of the regional space-based SLEUTH model the evolution of the model and the main conclusions of the study shortcomings.
The main contribution of this study in the following areas:
1.Learn geography,economics, and other multi-disciplinary theory, the SLEUTH model, based on the introduction of systems science and complexity of scientific thought to simulate the regional spatial evolution of regional spatial structure study has provided new research perspectives and theoretical basis.
2. Evolution of the regional spatial structure built on the basis of the study on the urbanization of regional spatial development patterns are discussed. Theoretical study and closely integrated empirical analysis presents a more complete study of ideas and build a new set of regional spatial' structure of a research framework.
3.Baoding, Hebei Province systematically discussed the evolution of regional spatial structure and mechanisms, in-depth analysis of urban spatial structural change in the status quo and existing problem, a right of regional spatial structure optimization of Baoding countermeasures and suggestions, with a certain degree of practical significance.
4. In the geological hazards based on the analysis of Tangshan City Regional Space evolution of the simulation and prediction. Tangshan periods through the analysis of urban planning in Tangshan City in conjunction with the status of the development process put forward the regional spatial development of Tangshan City, countermeasures and suggestions.
城市空间结构的演化体现出了科技的进步以及社会结构、经济结构和政治结构的变革。城市区域空间结构的研究揭示了空间结构演化的形态和机制,探讨了相应的调控理论、调控模式及措施。城市系统的研究重点在于揭示客观事物的演化历程和动力机制、预测城市空间的未来发展和演化路径。
本文从地理时空模拟的角度出发,基于SLEUTH模型综合运用GIS、Markov理论、元胞自动机和空间经济学,构建区域空间演变模型。在模型中,以城市范围、交通等时空数据为基础,根据区域地理空间历史变化提取演变规则；利用基于元胞自动机的SLEUTH模型和随机方法模拟区域地理元胞的生长、繁殖和消亡。并分别对河北省保定市和唐山市的区域时空演变模拟进行实证研究,对其演变过程及区域空间演变机理进行深入分析,探讨了保定市和唐山市区域空间结构优化的设想和策略。
第一部分是绪论部分。对研究背景意义、国内外的研究现状进行论述,并对区域空间演变模拟的可行性进行了分析。
第二部分介绍区域空间结构演变的理论基础。介绍地理模拟系统和区域空间结构演变的联系,对元胞自动机的结构体系进行了系统的探讨。
第三部分介绍城市空间扩展SLEUTH模型原理。分析介绍SLEUTH模型的理论方法和主要思路,以及模型构建所需的基本要素。
第四部分基于SLEUTH模型,以河北省保定市遥感影像等数据为基础对区域空间演变模拟模型理论做初步的实证研究。论述和分析了保定市空间结构演变过程中城市化、边聚及群聚效应的扩展情况。通过区域空间结构演变及现状分析出县市合并有利于保定市区域空间发展。将城市周边的县级市纳入大城市行政区范围,有利于行政集权的整合和资源发展,为区域规划和协调发展创造条件。
第五部分分析保定市区域空间结构演变机制及优化。根据未来保定市城市空间结构的优化设想和策略,提出了区域空间发展的相应对策。1、大城市化发展战略。大城市化过程中产生的规模经济效应将会带动区域内的整体发展；同时考虑优化中心城区用地布局,以提升中心城区实力。
2、融入京、津、冀经济圈。保定城市化的发展过程中,需要通过产业结构升级和产业聚集度加速城市化进程,通过融入京津冀经济发展圈,实现资源共享、优势互补以及通过区域间的竞争提高自身的效率和竞争力优势。通过经济圈内核心城市的辐射以及扩散功能促进其城市化功能。
3、促进区域协调发展。保定区域空间的发展趋势,为保定市空间的扩展奠定了坚实的基础,同时也为京津石的接轨打下了坚实的经济基础。
4、优化生产力布局,提高产业聚集度。加强边缘区工业组团的建设,促进城市外围地区良性发展。
第六部分以河北省唐山市遥感影像等数据为基础,基于地质灾害分布特征,运用SLEUTH模型对唐山市区域空间演变进行模拟和预测。模拟结果分析得出地形坡度对城市发展的巨大影响,唐山市的北部为山地、丘陵地带,滑坡等地质灾害频发,该区域的城市化速率远远小于其他区域。说明地形和地质灾害对城市化发展具有显著的影响。
第七部分通过唐山市各时期城市规划,结合模型预测结果分析,探讨唐山区域空间发展的新趋势。唐山城市空间由过去的集中扎堆式,逐步形成空间总体发展的三大片模式；重点逐步转向沿海城市。根据城市发展进程中存在的地质灾害防治、土地利用规划和城镇发展问题的讨论,提出促进唐山区域空间发展的建议：
1、优化产业格局。对区域空间进行合理的规划,通过对城镇群、冀东沿海地区、次级中心城市三个重点发展地区的规划,理顺中心城市与县城、建制镇、工业点相互之间的关系,逐步形成协调的区域空间格局。
2、合理规划城镇群结构。建立以市区为中心、以县市和滨海新城为纽带、以建制镇为依托的组团式城市群。构造以中心区为主体、以南部沿海城市带及北部山前城市带为两翼的城市发展格局,促进大中小城市和小城镇的协调发展。
3、加速城区间的道路建设。结合唐山市的布局特点对道路交通系统进行统一规划,完善各群体之间的道路交通系统及各城镇内部的道路交通系统规划。
4、加强区域内协作。加强京津冀北地区协调发展,促进环渤海区域经济发展。通过协调发展,加速生产要素聚集,形成产业发展、双向开放的新优势；形成产业协调发展的格局。
第八部分是结论和展望。总结了基于SLEUTH模型的区域空间演变模型的主要结论以及研究的不足之处。
本研究的主要贡献在以下几个方面：
1.借鉴地理学、经济学等多学科理论,在SLEUTH模型的基础上,引入系统科学及复杂性科学思想,模拟区域空间演化,为区域空间结构研究提供了新的研究视角和理论基础。
2.将区域空间结构演变研究建立在城市化研究的基础上,对区域空间发展模式进行了探讨。理论研究与实证分析紧密结合,提出了一个较完整的研究思路并构建了一套新的区域空间结构研究框架。
3.系统地论述了河北省保定市区域空间结构演变过程和机制,深入分析了城市空间结构转变的现状及存在的问题,提出了对保定市区域空间结构优化的对策和建议,具有一定的现实意义。
4、在地质灾害分析的基础上,对唐山市区域空间演化进行了模拟预测。通过对唐山市各时期城市规划的分析并结合唐山市城市发展过程的现状,提出对唐山市区域空间发展的对策和建议。
New century, China entered the era of urbanization, the city's sustainable development requires a reasonable growth of urban space, but the current theory for the development of China's urban space research lagged behind the actual planning. With the acceleration of urbanization process, as well as the urban population and land size continues to expand, urban land use structure has also undergone changes.
Evolution of urban spatial structures reflect the progress of science and technology as well as social structure, economic structure and political structures change. Spatial structure of urban areas as a set of applied and theoretical basis for integrating research, revealing the evolution of the shape space structure and mechanism of the corresponding control theory, control mode and measures. Urban systems research focus is to reveal the history and evolution of objective things, dynamic mechanism to predict the future development of urban space and the evolution of the path.
In this paper, the geographical point of view of space-time simulation, based on SLEUTH model of comprehensive use of GIS, Markov theory, cellular automata and spatial economics, to build regional space model their evolution. In the model to urban areas, transportation and other spatio-temporal data, based on historical change based on the regional geo-spatial evolution of the rules extracted; the use of cellular automata based on the SLEUTH model and the stochastic simulation of regional geography cellular growth, reproduction and die. Respectively, and Tangshan of Hebei Province Baoding City, the simulation of regional spatial and temporal evolution of empirical research, its evolution and the evolution of the mechanism of the regional space-depth analysis of the Baoding and Tangshan City, the idea of regional spatial structure optimization and strategy.
ChapterⅠIntroduction part of the first chapter. Background on the significance of the study at home and abroad discussed the current situation, and the evolution of regional spatial analysis of the feasibility of simulation.
ChapterⅡThe evolution of regional spatial structure of theoretical basis. Description of geographical simulation system and the evolution of regional spatial structure of the link pairs of cellular automata for structural systems were systematically explored.
ChapterⅢThe expansion of the SLEUTH model theory. SLEUTH model analysis describes theoretical approaches and the main ideas, as well as the essential element of model construction.
ChapterⅣBased on SLEUTH model to Baoding, Hebei Province based on remote sensing image data such as the evolution of regional spatial simulation model to do a preliminary empirical study of the theory. Discusses and analyzes the evolution of spatial structure of Baoding in urbanization, margination, and the expansion of cluster effects. Through the regional spatial structure and status quo analysis of the evolution of cities and counties out of the merger in favor of regional spatial development of Baoding. The city into the major cities around the county-level city administrative areas are conducive to the integration of administrative centralization and resource development, regional planning and coordinated development enabler.
ChapterⅤBaoding mechanism and the evolution of regional spatial structure optimization. Baoding city space under the future structure of the optimization ideas and strategy formulation of regional spatial development and appropriate measure.
1.City-oriented development strategy. Major cities of economies of scale generated in the process will lead the overall development of the region; taking into account the optimization of the layout of downtown land in order to enhance the strength of downtown.
2.1nto Beijing, Tianjin,Hebei economic circle. Baoding city-oriented development process, needs to upgrade the industrial structure and industry aggregation degree of acceleration of urbanization process, through integration into the economic development of Tianjin and Hebei circle, sharing resources, complement each other as well as through inter-regional competition to improve their efficiency and competitiveness of advantage. The core of the city through economic circle of radiation and the proliferation of functional capabilities to promote their cities.
3.Promoting coordinated regional development. Baoding regional spatial development trends, the expansion of space for the Baoding has laid a solid foundation, but also for the connection of the Beijing-Tianjin Shi laid a solid economic base.
4.Optimize the productive forces, enhance the degree of industrial aggregation. To strengthen the construction of marginal zone Industrial Base to promote the sound development of the outlying areas of cities.
ChapterⅥHebei Province based on data from remote sensing images, based on distribution characteristics of geological disasters, using SLEUTH model the evolution of Tangshan City Regional Space simulation and prediction. Analysis of simulation results derived terrain slope huge impact on urban development, Tangshan City, north of the mountains and hills, landslides and other geological disasters, the region's urbanization rate is far lower than other regions. Description topography and geological disasters on the development of urbanization has significant impact.
ChapterⅦThrough the period the Tangshan city planning, combined with models to predict the results of analysis to explore the development of Tangshan new trend of regional space. Tangshan urban space from the previous centralized crowding together style, and gradually form a space for the overall development of the three-chip models; the focus gradually shifting coastal cities. According to the process of urban development that exist in geological disaster prevention, land use planning and urban development issues in the discussion on the promotion of regional spatial development of Tangshan suggestions:
1.Optimize the industrial structure. Reasonable on regional spatial planning, through cities and towns groups, Jidong coastal areas, central city 3 focus on the development sub-regional planning, straighten out the central city and the county, towns, industrial relations between points, and gradually form a the coordination of the regional spatial pattern.
2.Rational urban planning group structure. The establishment of the urban area as the center, and coastal county Metro as a link to towns, backed Organized Group model. Constructed to the central area as the main body, to the southern coastal city with a belt and the northern Piedmont city's urban development pattern for the two wings, medium cities and small towns to promote the coordinated development.
3.Speed up the inter-urban road construction. Combination of Tangshan City, the layout of the features of the road traffic system of unified planning, improve the road between the various groups and the urban transportation system within the road traffic system planning.
4.Strengthening regional cooperation. Beijing and Tianjin North to strengthen the coordinated development of regional economic development in the Bohai Sea. Through the coordination of development, accelerate the production elements together, forming industrial development, two-way and open a new advantage; the formation of the pattern of coordinated development of industries.
ChapterⅧSummarizes the conclusions and outlook of the regional space-based SLEUTH model the evolution of the model and the main conclusions of the study shortcomings.
The main contribution of this study in the following areas:
1.Learn geography,economics, and other multi-disciplinary theory, the SLEUTH model, based on the introduction of systems science and complexity of scientific thought to simulate the regional spatial evolution of regional spatial structure study has provided new research perspectives and theoretical basis.
2. Evolution of the regional spatial structure built on the basis of the study on the urbanization of regional spatial development patterns are discussed. Theoretical study and closely integrated empirical analysis presents a more complete study of ideas and build a new set of regional spatial' structure of a research framework.
3.Baoding, Hebei Province systematically discussed the evolution of regional spatial structure and mechanisms, in-depth analysis of urban spatial structural change in the status quo and existing problem, a right of regional spatial structure optimization of Baoding countermeasures and suggestions, with a certain degree of practical significance.
4. In the geological hazards based on the analysis of Tangshan City Regional Space evolution of the simulation and prediction. Tangshan periods through the analysis of urban planning in Tangshan City in conjunction with the status of the development process put forward the regional spatial development of Tangshan City, countermeasures and suggestions.
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