煤炭消费预测与温室气体减排途径和对策研究
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摘要
本论文通过分析我国经济社会发展与煤炭消费的历史、趋势与现状,选取影响煤炭消费的经济社会指标体系,定性分析了各指标对煤炭消费的影响,利用相关系数和灰色关联度分析找出了影响煤炭消费的主要因素,利用计量经济学的协整分析与格兰杰检验等方法研究煤炭消费与经济社会的定量关系。在分析煤炭消费系统的特殊性和预测理论基础上,选择向量误差修正模型(VEC模型)和时间序列(ARIMA模型)作为单项预测模型进行权重组合构建煤炭消费的多元回归组合预测模型,结合煤炭消费行业的发展趋势对我国未来中长期煤炭消费量进行了预测。
通过分析世界主要国家CO2的排放趋、规律及主要影响因素,利用Kaya模型分析影响我国CO2排放量的主要因素,并总结煤炭生产消费与CO2、CH4排放的关系,对其未来的排放量进行预测。最后分析了我国温室气体排放与气候变化面临的问题与机遇,研究了减少煤炭的开发利用温室气体排放的技术途径,并从如何降低能耗、减少CO2、CH4排放等方面提出适用的对策和政策建议。
The thesis analyzes the history, trend and current situation of the social and economic development and coal consumption in China, makes a qualitative analysis about how all the parameters influence coal consumption through the selected social and economic parameter system influencing coal consumption, summarizes main factors that influence coal consumption by means of Correlation Analysis and Grey Relation Analysis, and explores the quantitative relation between coal consumption and social and economic development through Co-integration Analysis and Granger Test in econometrics. After analyzing the distinctiveness of coal consumption system and based upon the prediction theory, the paper takes Vector Error Correction Model (VEC) and Time Sequence (ARIMA) as the single prediction model to make weight combination and establish the prediction model of multiple regression combination, so that the following five-year coal consumption is predicted combined with the development trend of coal consumption industry in China.
Furthermore, the main influencing factors for CO2 emission volume are summarized through Kaya Model and the analysis of CO2 emission condition, trend and its influencing factors across global main countries; the relation between coal production and consumption and CO2 and CH4 emission is analyzed, and the future CO2 and CH4 emission volume is estimated as well. Finally, the paper summarizes problems and challenges of greenhouse gas emission and climate change are faced with, and counter measures and policy suggestions are proposed on how to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission in the process of coal exploration and utilization.
通过分析世界主要国家CO2的排放趋、规律及主要影响因素,利用Kaya模型分析影响我国CO2排放量的主要因素,并总结煤炭生产消费与CO2、CH4排放的关系,对其未来的排放量进行预测。最后分析了我国温室气体排放与气候变化面临的问题与机遇,研究了减少煤炭的开发利用温室气体排放的技术途径,并从如何降低能耗、减少CO2、CH4排放等方面提出适用的对策和政策建议。
The thesis analyzes the history, trend and current situation of the social and economic development and coal consumption in China, makes a qualitative analysis about how all the parameters influence coal consumption through the selected social and economic parameter system influencing coal consumption, summarizes main factors that influence coal consumption by means of Correlation Analysis and Grey Relation Analysis, and explores the quantitative relation between coal consumption and social and economic development through Co-integration Analysis and Granger Test in econometrics. After analyzing the distinctiveness of coal consumption system and based upon the prediction theory, the paper takes Vector Error Correction Model (VEC) and Time Sequence (ARIMA) as the single prediction model to make weight combination and establish the prediction model of multiple regression combination, so that the following five-year coal consumption is predicted combined with the development trend of coal consumption industry in China.
Furthermore, the main influencing factors for CO2 emission volume are summarized through Kaya Model and the analysis of CO2 emission condition, trend and its influencing factors across global main countries; the relation between coal production and consumption and CO2 and CH4 emission is analyzed, and the future CO2 and CH4 emission volume is estimated as well. Finally, the paper summarizes problems and challenges of greenhouse gas emission and climate change are faced with, and counter measures and policy suggestions are proposed on how to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission in the process of coal exploration and utilization.
引文
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3. Chien-Chiang Lee. The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited. Energy-Policy,2006 (34):1086-1093
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7. 杨辉.中国能源需求影响因素实证分析,商业经济,2008(2)
8. 林伯强.结构变化、效率改进与能源需求预测—以中国电力为例.经济研究,2003(5)
9. 林伯强.中国能源需求的经济计量分析.统计研究,2001(10)
10. 王帮俊.影响我国煤炭消费总量变动的行业因素,内蒙古煤炭经济,2003年增刊
11.钱永坤.王艳丽.20世纪90年代中国能源需求影响因素实证分析,中国矿业大学学报,2003.9,32(5)
12. 王丽敏.中国能源消费结构与经济发展的实证分析.能源技术与管理,2008(1)
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16. Granger C W J. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods [J].Econometrica,1969,37:424-438.
17. Kraft J,Kraft A. On the relationship between energy and GNP. Energy Development,1978,3:401-403
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19. Masih, A.M.M., Masih, R., On the Temporal Relationship betweenEnergy Consumption, Real Income and Prices:Some New Evidence from Asian-Energy Dependent NICs Based on a Multivatiate Cointegration Vector Error-correction Approach, Journal of Policy Modeling,1997
20. Ugur Soytas, Ramazan Sari, Energy consumption and GDP:causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets, Energy Economics,2003(1)
21. Glasure Y U, Lee A R. Cointegration, error-correction, and the relationship between GDP and electricity:the case of South Korea and Singapore. Resource and Electricity Economics,1997,20:17-25
22. Yu, E.S.H., Jin, J.C., Cointegration Tests of Energy Consumption, Income and Employment, Resources Energy,1992,14
23. John, Asafu-Adjaye. The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries.Energy Economics,2000, (22):615-625
24. Cheng, B.L., Lai, T.W., An Investigation of Cointegration and Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in Taiwan, Energy Economics,1997,19:435-444
25. Soytas, U., and Sari, R., Energy Consumption and GDP:Causality Relationship in G-7 Countries and Emerging Markets, Energy Economics,2003,25:33-37
26. Asafu-Adjaye J. The relationship between electricity consumption, electricity prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics,2000,22:615-625
27. Akarca, A.T., Long, T.V., "On the Relationship between Energy and GNP:A Re-examination", Journal of Energy and Development,1980(5)
28. Yu.E.S.H., Hwang, B.K., The Relationship between Energy and GNP:Further Results, Energy Economics, 1984,6:168-190
29. Yang H Y. A note on the causal relationship between electricity and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 2000,22:309-317
30. Fatai K.Oxley L, Scrimgeou F G. Modeling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, The Philippines and Thailand. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,2004,(64):431-445
31.韩智勇,魏一鸣,等.中国能源消费与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析.系统工程,2004(12)：17-21
32. 马超群,储慧斌.中国能源消费与经济增长的协整与误差校正模型研究.系统工程,2005(10)：49-52
33. 王群伟,杨知.我国能源消费与经济增长的协整关系研究,能源技术与管理,2007(5)
34. 王海鹏,田澎,靳萍.中国能源消费、经济增长协整关系和因果关系的实证研究—以电力行业为例.产业论坛.2005(5)
35. 倪铮,凌子未.中国石油需求量的协整计量分析.南开经济研究,2005,(6)
36.任少飞,冯华.中国经济增长与煤炭消费结构的关系.财经科学,2006(12)
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39.孟岩,张屹山.基于变参数模型的中国煤炭消费与经济增长关系研究.吉林师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2007,12(6)
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