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草原产草量模型方法研究
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摘要
本文以锡林郭勒草原为研究区,以草原产草量模型方法为研究对象,以植被指数、气象数据为主要变量,运用相关分析、一元回归、多元回归及岭回归等不同数理统计方法,构建了估产模型,对模型进行了精度验证,应用优选模型估测2008年产草量。本研究选择产草量方法热点问题为研究内容,具有一定的理论意义和应用价值。本文取得了如下的进展和创新:
     (1)基于MODIS植被指数和地面数据,利用回归分析,通过精度验证和评价,建立了以NDVI与地面样方数据拟合的三次曲线模型: y=-901.287+15548.395x-35026.104x2+34419.533x3
     其中,y为锡林郭勒估测地面产量,x为同步时间内的NDVI,该模型的决定系数为0.394,模型精度为69.31%。
     通过将遥感模型用于不同草地类型草原产量估测并进行精度验证,发现NDVI遥感模型总估产精度高于EVI遥感模型,在草地生产力水平偏高和偏低的区域,二次、三次曲线拟合模型的精度明显高于线性模型;
     (2)通过对不同气象因子、植被指数和地面样方数据进行多元回归分析,将遥感模型加入有效降水、有效干燥度,模型为: y=1064.357+7003.184NDVI-1111.753有效降水+353.123有效干燥度
     其中,y为锡林郭勒估测地面产量,该模型的值R2为0.4350,模型精度有所提高,精度为70.66%;
     (3)以EVI、有效降水、有效温度、有效干燥度作为变量与地面样方进行拟合的岭回归产草量模型: y=1897.02+10577.47EVI-521.02有效降水-472.021有效温度+141.44有效干燥度
     其中,y为锡林郭勒估测地面产量,该模型的值R2为0.4530,模型精度高于常规多元回归产草量模型,达到73.40%;
     (4)通过对上述三种模型的比较得出2008年产草量估产优选模型为以EVI、有效降水、有效温度、有效干燥度作为变量与地面样方为变量的岭回归产草量模型。
     (5)将气象因子引入了产草量模型的建立中,为从量化上探讨植物物候期对于生长旺季产草量水平提供了一种可行的思路及手段。
This thesis chose Xilinguole grassland, the typical grassland in the semi-arid temperate zone, as a research area. The method of grass yield model was studied by some statistics methods, such as related analysis, single regression, multiple regression and ridge regression. The model’s precision was validated. The yield of grass was estimated by the model which was chosen. The thesis chooses the hotpot problem as study content and has theory meaning and application value. The main development and innovation of the thesis are the followings:
     (1)The cubic remote sensing estimation model was found in MODIS-VI and square sample with regression method. y=-901.287+15548.395x-35026.104x2+34419.533x3
     y is the estimated grassland production in Xilinguole. x is the synchronous NDVI. The R2 is 0.394 and the precision is 69.31%.
     The remote sensing model was used by estimating the different types of grass yeild and validating the precision. The precisions of NDVI models were higher than EVI model. In addition, the precision of cubic and quadratic model was significantly higher than the linear model in the area of higher and lower grassland production.
     (2)The synthetic estimation model was found in meteorology data, MODIS-VI and square sample by using multiple regression method. The estimation model was chosen as the model of NDVI, valid precipitation and the valid dryness. y=1064.357+7003.184NDVI-1111.753 valid precipitation +353.123 valid dryness
     y is the estimated grassland production in Xilinguole. The R2 is 0.4350 and the precision is 70.66%.
     (3)The ridge regression model was built by meteorology data, MODIS-VI and square sample. The estimation model was chosen as the model of EVI, valid precipitation, valid temperature and the valid dryness. y=1897.02+10577.47EVI-521.02 valid precipitation -472.021 valid temperature +141.44 valid dryness
     y is the estimated grassland production in Xilinguole. The R2 is 0.4540. The precision is higher than multiple regression. The precision is 73.40%.
     (4)The ridge regression model i.e. the model of EVI, valid precipitation, valid temperature and the valid dryness was chosen as the grassland production estimated model in 2008 by contrasting the three models.
     (5) The meteorological factors were lead to the grass yield model. An ideal and methods was lead for discussing the effect of Phonology to grass yield.
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