国家创新能力成长机理研究
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摘要
知识经济时代,创新是经济增长的核心动力,国家成为创新活动的重要组织形式。世界各国的创新竞争以及中国自主创新战略的实施为国家创新能力成长研究创造现实需求,国家创新体系和内生增长理论为国家创新能力成长研究提供了理论和技术支撑。本研究试图在已有成果基础上,建立揭示国家创新能力成长机理的理论模型,分析国家创新能力成长路径模式及其演进,提出中国国家创新能力成长政策建议。
第一,对Chen和Kee模型中的人力资本假设进行理论扩展,构建国家创新能力成长内部作用模型,将人力资本积累和教育资本投入联系起来展开新的稳定状态求解,改进了国家创新能力成长稳定状态水平依赖外生变量的结论,阐明了国家创新能力成长内部作用机理。结果表明：国家创新能力成长很大程度上依赖劳动力人均受教育年限增加和教育将劳动力转化为人力资本的系数,而不是外生给定的人力资本增长率。
第二,在内部作用机理分析基础上,引入外部因素作用Wamae模型。运用创新投资替代研究人员,以反映学习能力,对Wamae模型的关键假设进行修正,构建国家创新能力成长外部作用模型,运用Mathematica4对模型进行动态模拟,阐明了国家创新能力成长外部作用机理。结果表明：南国和北国之间创新差距缩小,不仅与创新差距和学习能力的初始条件有关,而且与国家创新投入政策、知识溢出水平等因素有关。
第三,根据机理研究的推论,以专利为衡量指标,运用统计分析、核密度函数、马尔科夫链等方法,对国家创新能力成长路径模式及其演进进行经验研究。结果表明：国家创新能力成长具有连续路径、跨越路径和徘徊前进路径等三种模式；处于不同成长阶段的国家数量结构呈现从“金字塔”结构向“倒金字塔”结构转变的趋势；国家创新能力的成长具有规模障碍性、路径差异性和门槛效应。国家创新能力成长阶段之间的流动概率较低,在低成长阶段具有“路径依赖效应”,在高成长阶段具有“马太效应”。
第四,在理论和经验研究基础上,以国家科技规划编制实施为主线,从历史的角度对中国的创新政策进行考察,结果发现建国以来中国的创新战略经历了外部作用和内部作用之间的交替转换,内外平衡成为自主创新战略实施的关键,进一步借鉴英、美、日等国的发展经验,建议转变中央政府创新职能,建立内外协调的政策体系和一体化的创新政策议程。
Into the era of knowledge-based economy, innovation is the core power of economic growth, and state is the important organize form of innovative activity. Innovation competition among the country of the world and implementation of China's strategy of indigenous-oriented innovation create real demand for the study on the growth of national innovative capacity(NIC), the study on national innovation system (NIS) and endogenous growth theory provide the theory and technology support for the study on the growth of NIC. Based on the existing research, this study attempts to establish the analysis model to reveal the growth mechanism of NIC, analysis the paths patterns and evolution of the growth of NIC, and to provide the recommendations for the growth of China's innovative capacity.
Firstly, this dissertation expands the assumptions of human capital in the model of Chen and Kee, establishes the internal effect model of the growth of NIC, make a connection between the human capital accumulation and the education capital investment, then develop a new steady-state solution, which has improved the conclusion that the steady-state level of the growth of NIC depends on the exogenous variables, and reveals the internal growth mechanism of NIC.The results show that, NIC largely depends on the increase in average years of schooling of the labor force and the conversion coefficient measuring the transformation from labor force into human capital via education, rather than the growth rate of human capital given by exogenesis.
Secondly, based on the analysis of internal effect mechanism, this dissertation imports the Wamae model of external factor effect. This dissertation improve the key assumption of Wamae model using the innovation investment substituting researchers to reflect learning ability, and establishes the external effect model of the growth of NIC. Then it processes the dynamic simulation of the model using the Mathematics 4, reveals the internal growth mechanism of NIC. The results show that:the innovation gap of between the southern and northern country is not only connected with the initial conditions of innovation gap and learning ability, but also connected with national innovation investment policy, knowledge spillover level etc.
Thirdly, according to the deduction of mechanism study,this dissertation analyzes the paths pattern and evolution of the growth of NIC, base on the patent indicator, using the methods of nuclear density function, Markov chain, information entropy and econometrics.The results show that, there are three patterns in growth of NIC, namely, continuous path, great-leap-forward path, and hover-forward path; the distuibution of the number of the countries in different development stages presents the trend to transform from "pyramid" structure to "inverted pyramid" structure; there are scale obstacle, the difference of path and threshold effect in the growth of NIC; the flow probability between the growth stages of NIC is lower, moreover, there are the significant "path dependence" in the low growth stage while significant "Matthew effect" in the high growth stage.
Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical research, and National Science and Technology Plan to the main line, this dissertation inspects Chinese innovation policy from a historical perspective. The results show that, the innovation strategy experienced the alternative conversion between the external and internal effect since the founding of P.R. China, and keeping the internal and external equilibriums has become the key to implement the strategy of indigenous innovation. Drawing on the experience of other development countries such as British, the United States and Japan, this dissertation puts forward the recommendations, such as transforming innovation functions of the central government, establishing policy system with internal and external equilibriums and a unified innovation policy agenda.
第一,对Chen和Kee模型中的人力资本假设进行理论扩展,构建国家创新能力成长内部作用模型,将人力资本积累和教育资本投入联系起来展开新的稳定状态求解,改进了国家创新能力成长稳定状态水平依赖外生变量的结论,阐明了国家创新能力成长内部作用机理。结果表明：国家创新能力成长很大程度上依赖劳动力人均受教育年限增加和教育将劳动力转化为人力资本的系数,而不是外生给定的人力资本增长率。
第二,在内部作用机理分析基础上,引入外部因素作用Wamae模型。运用创新投资替代研究人员,以反映学习能力,对Wamae模型的关键假设进行修正,构建国家创新能力成长外部作用模型,运用Mathematica4对模型进行动态模拟,阐明了国家创新能力成长外部作用机理。结果表明：南国和北国之间创新差距缩小,不仅与创新差距和学习能力的初始条件有关,而且与国家创新投入政策、知识溢出水平等因素有关。
第三,根据机理研究的推论,以专利为衡量指标,运用统计分析、核密度函数、马尔科夫链等方法,对国家创新能力成长路径模式及其演进进行经验研究。结果表明：国家创新能力成长具有连续路径、跨越路径和徘徊前进路径等三种模式；处于不同成长阶段的国家数量结构呈现从“金字塔”结构向“倒金字塔”结构转变的趋势；国家创新能力的成长具有规模障碍性、路径差异性和门槛效应。国家创新能力成长阶段之间的流动概率较低,在低成长阶段具有“路径依赖效应”,在高成长阶段具有“马太效应”。
第四,在理论和经验研究基础上,以国家科技规划编制实施为主线,从历史的角度对中国的创新政策进行考察,结果发现建国以来中国的创新战略经历了外部作用和内部作用之间的交替转换,内外平衡成为自主创新战略实施的关键,进一步借鉴英、美、日等国的发展经验,建议转变中央政府创新职能,建立内外协调的政策体系和一体化的创新政策议程。
Into the era of knowledge-based economy, innovation is the core power of economic growth, and state is the important organize form of innovative activity. Innovation competition among the country of the world and implementation of China's strategy of indigenous-oriented innovation create real demand for the study on the growth of national innovative capacity(NIC), the study on national innovation system (NIS) and endogenous growth theory provide the theory and technology support for the study on the growth of NIC. Based on the existing research, this study attempts to establish the analysis model to reveal the growth mechanism of NIC, analysis the paths patterns and evolution of the growth of NIC, and to provide the recommendations for the growth of China's innovative capacity.
Firstly, this dissertation expands the assumptions of human capital in the model of Chen and Kee, establishes the internal effect model of the growth of NIC, make a connection between the human capital accumulation and the education capital investment, then develop a new steady-state solution, which has improved the conclusion that the steady-state level of the growth of NIC depends on the exogenous variables, and reveals the internal growth mechanism of NIC.The results show that, NIC largely depends on the increase in average years of schooling of the labor force and the conversion coefficient measuring the transformation from labor force into human capital via education, rather than the growth rate of human capital given by exogenesis.
Secondly, based on the analysis of internal effect mechanism, this dissertation imports the Wamae model of external factor effect. This dissertation improve the key assumption of Wamae model using the innovation investment substituting researchers to reflect learning ability, and establishes the external effect model of the growth of NIC. Then it processes the dynamic simulation of the model using the Mathematics 4, reveals the internal growth mechanism of NIC. The results show that:the innovation gap of between the southern and northern country is not only connected with the initial conditions of innovation gap and learning ability, but also connected with national innovation investment policy, knowledge spillover level etc.
Thirdly, according to the deduction of mechanism study,this dissertation analyzes the paths pattern and evolution of the growth of NIC, base on the patent indicator, using the methods of nuclear density function, Markov chain, information entropy and econometrics.The results show that, there are three patterns in growth of NIC, namely, continuous path, great-leap-forward path, and hover-forward path; the distuibution of the number of the countries in different development stages presents the trend to transform from "pyramid" structure to "inverted pyramid" structure; there are scale obstacle, the difference of path and threshold effect in the growth of NIC; the flow probability between the growth stages of NIC is lower, moreover, there are the significant "path dependence" in the low growth stage while significant "Matthew effect" in the high growth stage.
Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical research, and National Science and Technology Plan to the main line, this dissertation inspects Chinese innovation policy from a historical perspective. The results show that, the innovation strategy experienced the alternative conversion between the external and internal effect since the founding of P.R. China, and keeping the internal and external equilibriums has become the key to implement the strategy of indigenous innovation. Drawing on the experience of other development countries such as British, the United States and Japan, this dissertation puts forward the recommendations, such as transforming innovation functions of the central government, establishing policy system with internal and external equilibriums and a unified innovation policy agenda.
引文
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