城市轨道交通对住房价格影响的理论与实证研究
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摘要
城市轨道交通系统以其便捷、高效、低污染、大容量和高时速极大地改变了城市通行方式,改善了城市空间区位的可及性,对于城市居民的工作、生活和其他活动提供了巨大便利,同时也对周边住房价格产生了重要影响。然而,学术界对于这种邻近轨道交通导致的住房价格变化的经验研究并没有一致的结论,而且很多研究仅限于初步的影响显著性与影响大小分析,很多内在规律和机制都有待进一步探索,特别是对空间影响的复杂性和时间预期的多变性缺乏深入探索。此外,不同的经济社会环境、制度背景、发展阶段等因素导致轨道交通在不同地区的影响机制也不尽相同,即便同样在中国,不同城市之间的人口密度、交通状况、经济发展水平、人均收入、城市空间大小等因素也会影响轨道交通的作用,因此增加正处于快速城市化和经济社会转型背景下的中国城市经验案例对于更好地认识和理解该问题具有重要意义。在研究对象上,杭州市的地铁规划于2005年获得国务院批准,2007年开工建设,1号线工程将于近期竣工。相比早期建成的国内其他轨道系统,杭州市的规划建设时间和过程为经验研究提供了难得的完备数据,为深入细致的经验分析提供了重要的参考价值,也为同类研究提供了经典案例。
本研究在理论分析和文献回顾的基础上,着重从两个方面考察了城市轨道交通对周边住房价格的影响。首先是基于当下时点(横截面维度)探讨了城市轨道交通对周边住房价格影响(即邻近效应)范围、不同邻近程度测度导致的邻近效应差异、邻近效应在空间分布上的非均质性、以及邻近效应在不同次级市场的差异。其次是基于地铁规划建设的前后过程(时间序列维度)分析了邻近效应在该过程中不同时点的表现(即预期效应)与差异、不同阶段的表现与差异、以及由此导致的城市房价空间梯度的变化。基于杭州市区2003-2010年大样本的住房成交基础数据,以及细致的模型设定和深入的计量分析,本研究主要结论如下：
基于地铁1号线即将竣工时点的横截面数据的研究结论：
(1)轨道站点的不同范围影响以三个虚拟变量(500米、1000米和1500米)分别来度量,结果表明500米范围以内影响最大,1000米以内影响稍小,1500米范围的影响不显著。其他因素不变,500米范围内住房比500米外住房溢价9.4%,1000米以内住房比1000米以外住房溢价7.6%。
(2)感知距离(直线距离)和实际距离(网络距离)的计量结果表明,感知距离作为邻近效应的测度变量比实际距离更有解释力,模型整体效果和变量系数表现都好于实际距离。结论显示了当下住房市场对轨道站点邻近距离的认知特征,支持了研究假说。
(3)中心区域和外围区域的邻近效应差异研究验证了轨道交通邻近效应在空间上的非均质性。本研究通过对轨道站点邻近变量和城市中心邻近变量的交互作用的偏效应分析,计算了不同空间距离点位的邻近效应差异,发现轨道交通在城市中心影响较小,在近郊和远郊影响较大,影响大小相差达1倍。
(4)不同档次住房的邻近效应也不同。Chow检验结果证实了中低总价住房和中高总价住房的细分市场的存在,不同次级市场之间、次级市场与整体市场之间的计量结果发现,轨道站点的邻近效应在中低总价住房市场更大也更显著,在中高总价住房市场的邻近效应只有前者的一半,显著性也下降。
基于地铁1号线2003-2010的跨期比较研究结论：
(5)预期效应随着轨道交通规划建设不同时点而变化。实证结果表明,轨道交通传言期对周边房价没有显著影响。建设期的实证经验表明,周边房价非但没有下降,反而溢价幅度更大。计量结果显示,总体上,轨道交通预期效应随着运营时间的临近而增大。预期效应随时间变化的证据支持了市场对地铁预期是理性预期的假说。
(6)实证结果表明,规划宣布前后阶段的预期效应差异显著较大,规划宣布之后到开工建设之前阶段与开工建设之后的预期效应同样差异显著。实证结论同时表明,轨道交通站点影响的空间范围,在不同时点有显著变化,规划建设进程后期的范围要显著大于前期。
(7)轨道交通站点规划建设时间距离当前的时间越长,产生影响的可能性越小,中远期规划线路在实证中没有显著预期效应。
(8)轨道交通规划宣布前与开工建设后两个时点的预期效应差异对房价梯度的影响分析表明：轨道线路两侧在时点前后不存在显著的梯度变化；两个时点前后轨道站点周边梯度变化十分显著,以直线距离测度的梯度变化结论表明到站点距离增加1%房价下降0.067%；时点前后轨道沿线到城市中心的房价梯度显著减小,通过三种梯度测度变量的比较分析发现以交通时间测度效果最好。
本研究可能具备的理论价值包括以下几个方面：一、通过对城市交通改善对土地价格影响模型回顾、评论和分析,为进一步认识轨道交通规划建设对住房价格的影响提供理论借鉴；二、本研究深入细致地探索了邻近效应的内部规律,不仅分析了影响范围、影响大小等多数研究主要关注的内容,还进一步通过偏效应分析方法探讨了邻近效应的空间非均质性,通过对比不同距离测度方式探讨了感知距离和实际距离对邻近效应的影响,通过划分和检验不同细分市场探讨了邻近效应在不同细分市场的差异,这些深入细致的分析在以往经验研究中很少或尚未涉及,可以深化和拓展我们对轨道交通邻近效应的认识和理解；三、本研究对轨道交通预期效应的研究不仅着眼于预期效应的一般检验和分析,还深入地探究了预期效应在轨道交通规划建设不同时点、不同阶段的变化,提出并检验了预期效应随时间变化的规律以及轨道站点对住房价格影响范围会随着时间的推进而呈现空间上的扩展规律,这些关于轨道交通预期效应的细致分析以往的研究尚未涉及或深入讨论。在实践应用层面,可以为政府筹集轨道交通建设的资金、完善土地出让策略提供参考；可以为城市空间规划和轨道交通的站点设置提供借鉴；可为房地产市场供求双方提供决策支持。
Urban rail transit, with its high capacity of service, high efficiency and low pollution, provides better access to central business districts, employment locations and other places. Since urban rail transit stations are the points of access to a transit system and the ability to access them conveniently and quickly influences property values. Assuming that access to destinations reachable by public transit is an important determinant in the value of property, higher property values are expected in places with superior access to transit stations. Previous researches investigating the impact of rail transit on property values reveal results of varying magnitude that are sometimes contradictory and most studies deal with basic influences of such impact and few in-depth empirical analysis was done. Furthermore, most studies are unique to a given locale and do not provide a firm basis to judge future impacts. As a matter of fact, cities experiencing different changes of population and economic conditions probably react to urban rail transit construction differently. Therefore, the case study of Hangzhou subway system and its impact on nearby property values, is both practical and of great significance.
This study, based on theoretical and empirical analysis, estimates the impact of proximity to rail stations on residential property values from two perspectives. The first empirical section estimates the proximity effect of transit stations based on cross-sectional data, and the main focuses of the cross-sectional analysis include distance effects, decay rate, and spatial inhomogeneity. We explore how effects differ as rail travels through diverse and uneven urban locations and test two methods for measuring the distance between a residential property and a light rail station-straight-line distance and network distance. The second section investigates whether premiums were paid for the expected benefits offered by a new urban rail transit before its completion. We compare the anticipation effects between different times and different periods, and examine the variation of spatial price gradient of residential properties adjacent to transit stations. The results are as follows.
Implications from cross-section analysis for proximity effect:
(1) The proximity effects of rail station varies greatly. The price premium between houses in and outside the radius of 500 meters around station is highly significant; 1000 meters, fairly significant, and 1500 meters insignificant. The price premium for 500 meters is 9.4%, for 1000 meters 7.6%.
(2) The straight-line distance models produce more positive effects on property values than the network distance models and that the model results have greater statistical significance. A greater premium for straight-line distance than for walking distance suggests that geographical distance to a transit station is perhaps more important than walking distance in the case under study.
(3) The price premium effects around rail stations vary dramatically with the distance from central business district. In central locations, proximity effect is relatively lower, and in near suburb area larger, and distant suburb largest. This result indicates that the proximity effect is spatially inhomogeneous.
(4) The proximity effects differ across submarkets of high price residential property and medium-low price residential property. Chow-test substantially support the existence of such submarket and the proximity effect between submarkets, submarket and the whole market are significantly different. The medium-low price properties have greater price premium, the high price much lower.
Results from anticipation effects:
(5) The anticipation effect changes over time during the period of urban rail transit planning and construction, and positive price expectation effects were found before the completion of the rail. The results also showed that there was no significant price premiums during rumor period, and for the construction period, no price decrease found, on the contrary, price premium increases significantly. The eco-metric results indicate the anticipation effect increases with time. The results support the hypothesis of rational expectation.
(6) Empirical results showed that anticipation effects between the period before and after the announcement of subway construction planning differ significantly, so is the effects between the period before and after the construction. The results also suggest that the spatial range of proximity effect increase with time.
(7) The later the rail starts to operate, the smaller the anticipation effect would be. For rail line project of long-medium term, the anticipation effect is insignificant.
(8) The price gradient analysis showed that price gradient along the rail line did not change between two time points, and the price gradient around the rail station decreases significantly by 0.067% for each 1% increase of distance to station, and the price gradients between central business district and properties along rail line drop significantly as well. Among three measurements of price gradient, the time cost approach is the best.
This study may have several practical implications. Firstly, the methodologies devised in this paper improve the traditional analysis on improvements in transport and the results found here are useful for a in-depth and thorough understanding of proximity effect and anticipation effect. Secondly, the findings have far-reaching implications for government policies on land sales and rail station and rail line planning. The expectation effects will enable the government to finance infrastructure projects by selling land parcels in the affected districts in advance. The empirical results can also be valuable to urban transportation planning programs.
本研究在理论分析和文献回顾的基础上,着重从两个方面考察了城市轨道交通对周边住房价格的影响。首先是基于当下时点(横截面维度)探讨了城市轨道交通对周边住房价格影响(即邻近效应)范围、不同邻近程度测度导致的邻近效应差异、邻近效应在空间分布上的非均质性、以及邻近效应在不同次级市场的差异。其次是基于地铁规划建设的前后过程(时间序列维度)分析了邻近效应在该过程中不同时点的表现(即预期效应)与差异、不同阶段的表现与差异、以及由此导致的城市房价空间梯度的变化。基于杭州市区2003-2010年大样本的住房成交基础数据,以及细致的模型设定和深入的计量分析,本研究主要结论如下：
基于地铁1号线即将竣工时点的横截面数据的研究结论：
(1)轨道站点的不同范围影响以三个虚拟变量(500米、1000米和1500米)分别来度量,结果表明500米范围以内影响最大,1000米以内影响稍小,1500米范围的影响不显著。其他因素不变,500米范围内住房比500米外住房溢价9.4%,1000米以内住房比1000米以外住房溢价7.6%。
(2)感知距离(直线距离)和实际距离(网络距离)的计量结果表明,感知距离作为邻近效应的测度变量比实际距离更有解释力,模型整体效果和变量系数表现都好于实际距离。结论显示了当下住房市场对轨道站点邻近距离的认知特征,支持了研究假说。
(3)中心区域和外围区域的邻近效应差异研究验证了轨道交通邻近效应在空间上的非均质性。本研究通过对轨道站点邻近变量和城市中心邻近变量的交互作用的偏效应分析,计算了不同空间距离点位的邻近效应差异,发现轨道交通在城市中心影响较小,在近郊和远郊影响较大,影响大小相差达1倍。
(4)不同档次住房的邻近效应也不同。Chow检验结果证实了中低总价住房和中高总价住房的细分市场的存在,不同次级市场之间、次级市场与整体市场之间的计量结果发现,轨道站点的邻近效应在中低总价住房市场更大也更显著,在中高总价住房市场的邻近效应只有前者的一半,显著性也下降。
基于地铁1号线2003-2010的跨期比较研究结论：
(5)预期效应随着轨道交通规划建设不同时点而变化。实证结果表明,轨道交通传言期对周边房价没有显著影响。建设期的实证经验表明,周边房价非但没有下降,反而溢价幅度更大。计量结果显示,总体上,轨道交通预期效应随着运营时间的临近而增大。预期效应随时间变化的证据支持了市场对地铁预期是理性预期的假说。
(6)实证结果表明,规划宣布前后阶段的预期效应差异显著较大,规划宣布之后到开工建设之前阶段与开工建设之后的预期效应同样差异显著。实证结论同时表明,轨道交通站点影响的空间范围,在不同时点有显著变化,规划建设进程后期的范围要显著大于前期。
(7)轨道交通站点规划建设时间距离当前的时间越长,产生影响的可能性越小,中远期规划线路在实证中没有显著预期效应。
(8)轨道交通规划宣布前与开工建设后两个时点的预期效应差异对房价梯度的影响分析表明：轨道线路两侧在时点前后不存在显著的梯度变化；两个时点前后轨道站点周边梯度变化十分显著,以直线距离测度的梯度变化结论表明到站点距离增加1%房价下降0.067%；时点前后轨道沿线到城市中心的房价梯度显著减小,通过三种梯度测度变量的比较分析发现以交通时间测度效果最好。
本研究可能具备的理论价值包括以下几个方面：一、通过对城市交通改善对土地价格影响模型回顾、评论和分析,为进一步认识轨道交通规划建设对住房价格的影响提供理论借鉴；二、本研究深入细致地探索了邻近效应的内部规律,不仅分析了影响范围、影响大小等多数研究主要关注的内容,还进一步通过偏效应分析方法探讨了邻近效应的空间非均质性,通过对比不同距离测度方式探讨了感知距离和实际距离对邻近效应的影响,通过划分和检验不同细分市场探讨了邻近效应在不同细分市场的差异,这些深入细致的分析在以往经验研究中很少或尚未涉及,可以深化和拓展我们对轨道交通邻近效应的认识和理解；三、本研究对轨道交通预期效应的研究不仅着眼于预期效应的一般检验和分析,还深入地探究了预期效应在轨道交通规划建设不同时点、不同阶段的变化,提出并检验了预期效应随时间变化的规律以及轨道站点对住房价格影响范围会随着时间的推进而呈现空间上的扩展规律,这些关于轨道交通预期效应的细致分析以往的研究尚未涉及或深入讨论。在实践应用层面,可以为政府筹集轨道交通建设的资金、完善土地出让策略提供参考；可以为城市空间规划和轨道交通的站点设置提供借鉴；可为房地产市场供求双方提供决策支持。
Urban rail transit, with its high capacity of service, high efficiency and low pollution, provides better access to central business districts, employment locations and other places. Since urban rail transit stations are the points of access to a transit system and the ability to access them conveniently and quickly influences property values. Assuming that access to destinations reachable by public transit is an important determinant in the value of property, higher property values are expected in places with superior access to transit stations. Previous researches investigating the impact of rail transit on property values reveal results of varying magnitude that are sometimes contradictory and most studies deal with basic influences of such impact and few in-depth empirical analysis was done. Furthermore, most studies are unique to a given locale and do not provide a firm basis to judge future impacts. As a matter of fact, cities experiencing different changes of population and economic conditions probably react to urban rail transit construction differently. Therefore, the case study of Hangzhou subway system and its impact on nearby property values, is both practical and of great significance.
This study, based on theoretical and empirical analysis, estimates the impact of proximity to rail stations on residential property values from two perspectives. The first empirical section estimates the proximity effect of transit stations based on cross-sectional data, and the main focuses of the cross-sectional analysis include distance effects, decay rate, and spatial inhomogeneity. We explore how effects differ as rail travels through diverse and uneven urban locations and test two methods for measuring the distance between a residential property and a light rail station-straight-line distance and network distance. The second section investigates whether premiums were paid for the expected benefits offered by a new urban rail transit before its completion. We compare the anticipation effects between different times and different periods, and examine the variation of spatial price gradient of residential properties adjacent to transit stations. The results are as follows.
Implications from cross-section analysis for proximity effect:
(1) The proximity effects of rail station varies greatly. The price premium between houses in and outside the radius of 500 meters around station is highly significant; 1000 meters, fairly significant, and 1500 meters insignificant. The price premium for 500 meters is 9.4%, for 1000 meters 7.6%.
(2) The straight-line distance models produce more positive effects on property values than the network distance models and that the model results have greater statistical significance. A greater premium for straight-line distance than for walking distance suggests that geographical distance to a transit station is perhaps more important than walking distance in the case under study.
(3) The price premium effects around rail stations vary dramatically with the distance from central business district. In central locations, proximity effect is relatively lower, and in near suburb area larger, and distant suburb largest. This result indicates that the proximity effect is spatially inhomogeneous.
(4) The proximity effects differ across submarkets of high price residential property and medium-low price residential property. Chow-test substantially support the existence of such submarket and the proximity effect between submarkets, submarket and the whole market are significantly different. The medium-low price properties have greater price premium, the high price much lower.
Results from anticipation effects:
(5) The anticipation effect changes over time during the period of urban rail transit planning and construction, and positive price expectation effects were found before the completion of the rail. The results also showed that there was no significant price premiums during rumor period, and for the construction period, no price decrease found, on the contrary, price premium increases significantly. The eco-metric results indicate the anticipation effect increases with time. The results support the hypothesis of rational expectation.
(6) Empirical results showed that anticipation effects between the period before and after the announcement of subway construction planning differ significantly, so is the effects between the period before and after the construction. The results also suggest that the spatial range of proximity effect increase with time.
(7) The later the rail starts to operate, the smaller the anticipation effect would be. For rail line project of long-medium term, the anticipation effect is insignificant.
(8) The price gradient analysis showed that price gradient along the rail line did not change between two time points, and the price gradient around the rail station decreases significantly by 0.067% for each 1% increase of distance to station, and the price gradients between central business district and properties along rail line drop significantly as well. Among three measurements of price gradient, the time cost approach is the best.
This study may have several practical implications. Firstly, the methodologies devised in this paper improve the traditional analysis on improvements in transport and the results found here are useful for a in-depth and thorough understanding of proximity effect and anticipation effect. Secondly, the findings have far-reaching implications for government policies on land sales and rail station and rail line planning. The expectation effects will enable the government to finance infrastructure projects by selling land parcels in the affected districts in advance. The empirical results can also be valuable to urban transportation planning programs.
引文
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