农地城市流转的外部性与社会理性决策研究
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摘要
农地城市流转作为我国社会经济发展过程中一个不可或缺的环节会产生一系列经济、生态和社会效应,不仅影响着城市进步,也事关农村发展。因此,农地城市流转决策制定的科学与否,将直接导致社会福利水平的变动。我国目前的农地城市流转决策由于忽视了土地利用活动的外部效应和土地用途变化过程中的不确定性、不可逆性而呈现出以经济利益最大化为目标的典型的私人决策特征,存在一定程度的扭曲。为此,本研究试图还原农地城市流转决策的社会公共决策的本质,从一个社会理性人(社会决策者)的视角出发,尝试对土地利用活动的外部效应进行量化并将其纳入社会收益成本分析,同时建立起一个完整的农地城市流转社会理性决策分析框架。具体地说,就是通过引入一个代表全体社会成员利益的社会决策者,在对其处于一定决策环境下的风险态度、决策目标予以辩析的基础上,以农地城市流转的社会成本与社会收益取代私人决策准则下的私人成本与私人收益,并以二者相比较的结果作为本研究制定决策的依据;同时,农地城市流转过程中客观存在的不确定性与不可逆性也被作为重要影响因素纳入决策制定,为此,论文采用适宜解决高风险、高不确定性和高不可逆性决策问题的实物期权决策理论尝试性的回答了应当如何延迟决策以等待更适当的流转时机这一问题,从而最终确定了农地(本研究特指耕地)在不同流向(交通用地、住宅用地及工业用地)下的最佳流转时机。
本研究希望通过对农地城市流转社会理性决策的系统化、定量化分析研究,为我国农地城市流转决策者和土地管理工作者提供一些新的思路和有益参考,即:引导现实中的决策者和管理者从更深层次认知土地资源在农业和非农业部门之间合理配置的重要意义及其对经济、社会、生态可能产生的各种影响,并尝试为其制定农地城市流转决策提供依据;提醒其在强调经济发展的同时充分考虑农地过度流失将可能给社会福利造成的巨大损失,从而更为理性和审慎地制定农地城市流转决策,尽可能降低因盲目决策和对经济利益的过分追求给而社会和生态带来的危害,最终通过农地适度、适时向市地流转而使社会福利水平得到改进。为达到这一目标,本研究在理论分析的基础上,结合湖北省武汉市最为典型的以城带乡型主城区——洪山区的农地城市流转决策这一实例对农地城市流转的外部性及社会理性决策框架进行了系统研究,具体的研究与讨论从以下几个方面展开:
首先,论文对农地城市流转社会理性决策的基本要素进行了描述,其中首要的是塑造了一个能够代表全体社会成员利益的理想化的决策主体——社会决策者,本研究正是基于该特定决策主体的视角而展开。此外,论文还对农地城市流转社会理性决策的特征进行了辨识,结果表明:农地城市流转社会理性决策是一种社会公共决策、多准则决策、不确定性的不可逆决策。这部分内容为研究的顺利开展奠定了理论基础。
其次,由于决策环境会直接或间接地作用于决策者的判断和决定,特别是其对未来不确定性因素的预期,因此论文分别从所处的经济发展阶段、社会需求的变动情况和可持续土地资源配置观的发展等三个方面,对洪山区(农地城市流转社会理性决策实证区域)所在的武汉市进行了宏观决策环境分析,并推断出社会决策者在此环境下的风险态度表现出明显的风险规避特征,这一结论为本研究在后文中处理长期动态决策中的不确定性提供了理论依据。此外,论文通过分析农地城市流转社会理性决策的决策目标,并对影响决策总目标——社会福利最大化实现的影响因素进行探析后得出结论:农地城市流转社会理性决策总目标应兼具经济目标、生态目标和社会目标三个子目标;农地城市流转社会决策者的偏好以及利益群体的价值判断准则是影响决策目标能否实现的两个关键因素。因此,应引导决策者和社会成员重视农地城市流转可能产生的正、负外部效应,通过建立正确的价值判断准则来确立决策目标,这也是本研究选用社会成本——效益分析作为决策依据的原因所在。
再次,基于社会决策者的视角,从全体社会成员的福利角度出发,在考虑土地利用活动外部性的前提下,本研究将农地城市流转决策具体化为决策者在“保有农地”和“开发农地”两个策略中进行选择的过程。也就是说,将保有农地的社会净收益和开发农地的社会净收益分别视作农地城市流转的社会成本和社会收益,并分别对每种策略下的外部效益和外部成本进行了系统分析和定量评估,从而为最终制定最佳的农地流转时间决策的做好准备。在这一部分,由于农地开发为市地的流向具有多种可能性,不同用途市地之间的社会净收益有着较大差异,因此本研究分别考虑了交通用地、住宅用地、工业用地三种最常见的农地流向,并分别对其社会净收益进行了估算。由于土地具有异质性,因此实证研究区域不宜过大,故论文将武汉市洪山区作为实证区域。
最后,对传统投资决策理论和实物期权投资决策理论进行了比较分析,并基于前文的定性分析和定量计算,采用适于处理不确定和不可逆问题的实物期权决策方法解答了“当社会决策者面对一个农地城市流转机会时,何时做出流转决策(将决策延迟多久)为最优”这一问题。
Rural-urban land conversion which is an unavoidable part in socio-economic development would bring up various economic, ecological and social effects that affect on urban growth and rural development. Therefore, whether the rural-urban land conversion decision making reasonable or not will result to the changing of social welfare directly. Decision-making of rural-urban land conversion in China today is a kind of private decision-making that aiming at the maximization of economic interests and has a certain degree of distortion, because the externalities that arise from land use activities and the uncertainty and irreversibility in land use changes are ignored. For this reason, this research attempts to return to the decision-making of rural-urban land conversion nature of social public decision-making, from an idealistic social decision-maker's (a social rational agent's) perspective to establish a complete rural-urban land conversion social rational decision-making analytical framework. Specifically, through the introduction (assumption) of a social policy maker who is the representative of the interests of all social members, this paper gives a brief analysis on decision maker's attitude toward risk and his decision-making objectives in certain decision-making environment. Then it makes social costs and benefits to substitute for the private decision-making criteria of private costs and benefits, and compared the results of these two as a basis for our decision-making according to the theory of Cost-Benefit Analysis. At the same time, the uncertainty and irreversibility which exist in the process of rural-urban land conversion objectively are also considered in our decision-making as the important influencing factors. With regard to this, it uses the Real Option Theory which is appropriate to deal with the high risk, uncertainty, irreversibility decisioin making problems to answer the question about how to delay the decision-making in order to waiting for a more appropriate conversion time. Finally, this paper gives the optimal conversion timing when the rural land (this study refers to arable land primarily) should be converted to various uses of urban lands (traffic land, residential land and industrial land).
This paper attempts to provide some new ideas and useful references for our rural-urban land conversion decision makers and land administrators by studying on the decision-making of rural-urban land conversion systematically and quantitatively, namely: to guide the realistic policy makers and managers to have much deeper awareness of allocating land resources between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and the significance of its impacts on economy, society and ecology that may arise, and try to provide a basis for the decision-making of rural-urban land conversion; to give some recommendations for them that to take the social welfare's enormous losses which would generated from the excessive loss of agricultural land into account sufficiently, and thus they should make decisions more rationally and cautiously to reduce the social and ecological hazards who originates from the irrational decision-making and the excessive pursuit of economic interests as much as possible, and at last the level of social welfare will be improved by transfer rural land to urban land moderately and timely. To achieve this goal, on the basis of theoretical analysis, this study takes Hongshan District (in Wuhan City of Hubei Province) which is one of the main urban areas as a typical example to carry out our researches and discussions from the following aspects:
First of all, the basic elements of socially rational decision-making of rural-urban land conversion are described, in which an ideal decision maker——Social Decision Maker is shaped to represent the interests of all members in our society. The whole research proceeds on this agent's perspective. In addition, this paper identifies the characteristics that socially rational decision-making of rural-urban land conversion has, the result shows that: it is featured of social public, multi-criteria, uncertain and irreversible. This part of contents lays a theoretical foundation for carrying out our research successfully.
Secondly, because decision-making environment will affect decision-maker's judgments and decisions especially the expectation on uncertain factors in future directly or indirectly, this paper analyzes the macro decision environment of Wuhan City that Hongshan District (empirical study area of this paper) belongs to from three aspects: stage of economic development, changes in social demand and development of the sustainable land resources allocation concept And then it infers the social decision maker's risk attitude in the environment discussed above showing the characteristics of risk aversion distinctly.This conclusion provides a theoretical basis for dealing with the uncertainty existing in long-term dynamic decision-making for our following research. Furthermore, this paper analyses the objective of the rural-urban land conversion decision-making, and explores the fators who affect the realization of its' general goal of maximizing the social welfare. It can be concluded that the general goal of socially rational decision-making should include three sub-goals: economic goal, ecological goal and social goal; the preference of social decision makers and the value judgment of interest groups are two crucial factors which determine the realization of the rural-urban land conversion decision-making objectives. Therefore, decision maker and social members should be conducted to pay more attention on external benefit and cost produced in the process of rural-urban land conversion, and set up decision goals by establishing a correct criterion of value judgment. That's also the reason why we select social cost and benefit analysis as the main decision-making method in this paper.
Then, from the perspective of social decision-maker and based on the welfare of all social members, the decision-making of rural-urban land conversion is simplified to be a course that the decision-maker are making choice between 'preserve the rural land' and 'develop it'. That is to say, it considers the net social benefit of preserving rural land and developing it as the social cost and social benefit that come from rural-urban land conversion respectively, and then evaluated them separately to prepare for determining the optimal conversion opportunity. In this part, it take four common uses such as traffic land, residential land, industrial land and educational land into account and assessed their net social benefits respectively, because the urban land uses that rural land converted to have wide range of possibilities and the net social benefit that arise from each use has significant difference. Empirical study area shouldn't be too large due to the heterogeneity of lands, so this part select Hongshan District in Wuhan City as our empirical study area.
Finally, this paper compares the traditional decision-making theory with the Real Option Theory, and basing on the qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation in our previous paper, it adopts the Real Option Theory which is appropriate for dealing with the issue of uncertainty and irreversibility to solve a problems: which is the optimal timing for conversion when the social decision-maker facing an opportunity of rural-urban land conversion in Hongshan District.
本研究希望通过对农地城市流转社会理性决策的系统化、定量化分析研究,为我国农地城市流转决策者和土地管理工作者提供一些新的思路和有益参考,即:引导现实中的决策者和管理者从更深层次认知土地资源在农业和非农业部门之间合理配置的重要意义及其对经济、社会、生态可能产生的各种影响,并尝试为其制定农地城市流转决策提供依据;提醒其在强调经济发展的同时充分考虑农地过度流失将可能给社会福利造成的巨大损失,从而更为理性和审慎地制定农地城市流转决策,尽可能降低因盲目决策和对经济利益的过分追求给而社会和生态带来的危害,最终通过农地适度、适时向市地流转而使社会福利水平得到改进。为达到这一目标,本研究在理论分析的基础上,结合湖北省武汉市最为典型的以城带乡型主城区——洪山区的农地城市流转决策这一实例对农地城市流转的外部性及社会理性决策框架进行了系统研究,具体的研究与讨论从以下几个方面展开:
首先,论文对农地城市流转社会理性决策的基本要素进行了描述,其中首要的是塑造了一个能够代表全体社会成员利益的理想化的决策主体——社会决策者,本研究正是基于该特定决策主体的视角而展开。此外,论文还对农地城市流转社会理性决策的特征进行了辨识,结果表明:农地城市流转社会理性决策是一种社会公共决策、多准则决策、不确定性的不可逆决策。这部分内容为研究的顺利开展奠定了理论基础。
其次,由于决策环境会直接或间接地作用于决策者的判断和决定,特别是其对未来不确定性因素的预期,因此论文分别从所处的经济发展阶段、社会需求的变动情况和可持续土地资源配置观的发展等三个方面,对洪山区(农地城市流转社会理性决策实证区域)所在的武汉市进行了宏观决策环境分析,并推断出社会决策者在此环境下的风险态度表现出明显的风险规避特征,这一结论为本研究在后文中处理长期动态决策中的不确定性提供了理论依据。此外,论文通过分析农地城市流转社会理性决策的决策目标,并对影响决策总目标——社会福利最大化实现的影响因素进行探析后得出结论:农地城市流转社会理性决策总目标应兼具经济目标、生态目标和社会目标三个子目标;农地城市流转社会决策者的偏好以及利益群体的价值判断准则是影响决策目标能否实现的两个关键因素。因此,应引导决策者和社会成员重视农地城市流转可能产生的正、负外部效应,通过建立正确的价值判断准则来确立决策目标,这也是本研究选用社会成本——效益分析作为决策依据的原因所在。
再次,基于社会决策者的视角,从全体社会成员的福利角度出发,在考虑土地利用活动外部性的前提下,本研究将农地城市流转决策具体化为决策者在“保有农地”和“开发农地”两个策略中进行选择的过程。也就是说,将保有农地的社会净收益和开发农地的社会净收益分别视作农地城市流转的社会成本和社会收益,并分别对每种策略下的外部效益和外部成本进行了系统分析和定量评估,从而为最终制定最佳的农地流转时间决策的做好准备。在这一部分,由于农地开发为市地的流向具有多种可能性,不同用途市地之间的社会净收益有着较大差异,因此本研究分别考虑了交通用地、住宅用地、工业用地三种最常见的农地流向,并分别对其社会净收益进行了估算。由于土地具有异质性,因此实证研究区域不宜过大,故论文将武汉市洪山区作为实证区域。
最后,对传统投资决策理论和实物期权投资决策理论进行了比较分析,并基于前文的定性分析和定量计算,采用适于处理不确定和不可逆问题的实物期权决策方法解答了“当社会决策者面对一个农地城市流转机会时,何时做出流转决策(将决策延迟多久)为最优”这一问题。
Rural-urban land conversion which is an unavoidable part in socio-economic development would bring up various economic, ecological and social effects that affect on urban growth and rural development. Therefore, whether the rural-urban land conversion decision making reasonable or not will result to the changing of social welfare directly. Decision-making of rural-urban land conversion in China today is a kind of private decision-making that aiming at the maximization of economic interests and has a certain degree of distortion, because the externalities that arise from land use activities and the uncertainty and irreversibility in land use changes are ignored. For this reason, this research attempts to return to the decision-making of rural-urban land conversion nature of social public decision-making, from an idealistic social decision-maker's (a social rational agent's) perspective to establish a complete rural-urban land conversion social rational decision-making analytical framework. Specifically, through the introduction (assumption) of a social policy maker who is the representative of the interests of all social members, this paper gives a brief analysis on decision maker's attitude toward risk and his decision-making objectives in certain decision-making environment. Then it makes social costs and benefits to substitute for the private decision-making criteria of private costs and benefits, and compared the results of these two as a basis for our decision-making according to the theory of Cost-Benefit Analysis. At the same time, the uncertainty and irreversibility which exist in the process of rural-urban land conversion objectively are also considered in our decision-making as the important influencing factors. With regard to this, it uses the Real Option Theory which is appropriate to deal with the high risk, uncertainty, irreversibility decisioin making problems to answer the question about how to delay the decision-making in order to waiting for a more appropriate conversion time. Finally, this paper gives the optimal conversion timing when the rural land (this study refers to arable land primarily) should be converted to various uses of urban lands (traffic land, residential land and industrial land).
This paper attempts to provide some new ideas and useful references for our rural-urban land conversion decision makers and land administrators by studying on the decision-making of rural-urban land conversion systematically and quantitatively, namely: to guide the realistic policy makers and managers to have much deeper awareness of allocating land resources between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and the significance of its impacts on economy, society and ecology that may arise, and try to provide a basis for the decision-making of rural-urban land conversion; to give some recommendations for them that to take the social welfare's enormous losses which would generated from the excessive loss of agricultural land into account sufficiently, and thus they should make decisions more rationally and cautiously to reduce the social and ecological hazards who originates from the irrational decision-making and the excessive pursuit of economic interests as much as possible, and at last the level of social welfare will be improved by transfer rural land to urban land moderately and timely. To achieve this goal, on the basis of theoretical analysis, this study takes Hongshan District (in Wuhan City of Hubei Province) which is one of the main urban areas as a typical example to carry out our researches and discussions from the following aspects:
First of all, the basic elements of socially rational decision-making of rural-urban land conversion are described, in which an ideal decision maker——Social Decision Maker is shaped to represent the interests of all members in our society. The whole research proceeds on this agent's perspective. In addition, this paper identifies the characteristics that socially rational decision-making of rural-urban land conversion has, the result shows that: it is featured of social public, multi-criteria, uncertain and irreversible. This part of contents lays a theoretical foundation for carrying out our research successfully.
Secondly, because decision-making environment will affect decision-maker's judgments and decisions especially the expectation on uncertain factors in future directly or indirectly, this paper analyzes the macro decision environment of Wuhan City that Hongshan District (empirical study area of this paper) belongs to from three aspects: stage of economic development, changes in social demand and development of the sustainable land resources allocation concept And then it infers the social decision maker's risk attitude in the environment discussed above showing the characteristics of risk aversion distinctly.This conclusion provides a theoretical basis for dealing with the uncertainty existing in long-term dynamic decision-making for our following research. Furthermore, this paper analyses the objective of the rural-urban land conversion decision-making, and explores the fators who affect the realization of its' general goal of maximizing the social welfare. It can be concluded that the general goal of socially rational decision-making should include three sub-goals: economic goal, ecological goal and social goal; the preference of social decision makers and the value judgment of interest groups are two crucial factors which determine the realization of the rural-urban land conversion decision-making objectives. Therefore, decision maker and social members should be conducted to pay more attention on external benefit and cost produced in the process of rural-urban land conversion, and set up decision goals by establishing a correct criterion of value judgment. That's also the reason why we select social cost and benefit analysis as the main decision-making method in this paper.
Then, from the perspective of social decision-maker and based on the welfare of all social members, the decision-making of rural-urban land conversion is simplified to be a course that the decision-maker are making choice between 'preserve the rural land' and 'develop it'. That is to say, it considers the net social benefit of preserving rural land and developing it as the social cost and social benefit that come from rural-urban land conversion respectively, and then evaluated them separately to prepare for determining the optimal conversion opportunity. In this part, it take four common uses such as traffic land, residential land, industrial land and educational land into account and assessed their net social benefits respectively, because the urban land uses that rural land converted to have wide range of possibilities and the net social benefit that arise from each use has significant difference. Empirical study area shouldn't be too large due to the heterogeneity of lands, so this part select Hongshan District in Wuhan City as our empirical study area.
Finally, this paper compares the traditional decision-making theory with the Real Option Theory, and basing on the qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation in our previous paper, it adopts the Real Option Theory which is appropriate for dealing with the issue of uncertainty and irreversibility to solve a problems: which is the optimal timing for conversion when the social decision-maker facing an opportunity of rural-urban land conversion in Hongshan District.
引文
2 数据来源:中华人民共和国国土资源部.《1997-2010年全国土地利用总体规划纲要》.http://www.mlr.gov.cn/zwgk/ghjh/200710/t20071017_88615.htm,2007年10月17日
3 数据来源:中华人民共和国国土资源部.2007年中国国土资源公报.http://www.mlr.gov.cn/qt/gdl/200804/t20080416_101261.htm,2008年4月16日
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