城乡转型与农地非农化的互动关系
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摘要
城乡转型是18世纪以来世界范围内的一种重要的社会经济现象。根据国际经验,目前我国处于快速的城乡转型期,但已突出的表现出:城乡社会结构转型滞后,乡村人口比重高;城乡产业结构转型滞后,第三产业产值比重低;城乡就业结构转型滞后,农业从业人员比重高,第三产业从业人员较低。我国城乡的非均衡发展,已经成为21世纪制约中国社会全面、协调和可持续发展的重大结构性矛盾。因此,加快中国城市化进程,推进城乡快速转型已经引起了各级政府部门的高度关注,很多地区把它作为社会经济发展的基本战略。然而,快速的城乡转型正在对农地非农化造成现实的或潜在的威胁。城乡转型与农地非农化的关系协调已经上升为转型国家的战略问题。开展城乡转型与农地非农化互动关系的研究,对进一步加快城乡转型的进程,合理利用土地资源,实现城乡协调发展目标等都具有重要的理论和现实指导意义。
文章综合运用发展经济学、区域经济学、新经济地理学、城市经济学、土地经济学、统计学和空间统计学、计量经济学、公共政策理论的原理和方法进行研究,采用宏观研究和微观研究相结合、定性研究与定量研究相结合、静态研究与动态研究相结合、规范研究和实证研究相结合等一般性的研究方法。具体研究方法包括聚类分析方法、Pearson相关分析方法、Granger因果检验方法、普通最小二乘法和两阶段最小二乘法。采用的工具有Excel软件、SPSS软件、Eview计量软件以及Mapinfo成图软件。文章共分六章,围绕“过程—关系—机理—协调”分析框架对城乡转型与农地非农化的互动关系进行了尝试性的探讨,各章研究内容为:
第1章前言。在对问题有感性认识的基础上,通过文献研读,进一步加深对问题的理解;明确研究意义和研究目的,形成论文的研究思路。
第2章城乡转型与农地非农化的时空过程和特征。从城乡人口转型、城乡就业结构转型和城乡产业结构转型三个角度界定城乡转型概念、农地非农化概念的基础上,全面系统分析城乡转型与农地非农化的时空过程,归纳城乡转型与农地非农化的五大特征,初步揭示两者之间的关系,为后续研究提供依据。
第3章城乡转型与农地非农化的相互关系。对城乡转型与农地非农化相互关系研究文献进行综述的基础上,构建了一个包括相关关系、库兹涅茨曲线关系以及因果关系的相互关系研究框架。首先对城乡转型与农地非农化的相关关系以及库兹涅茨曲线关系进行了一般性的考察,然后着重对两者因果关系的研究方法进行了论述,并运用中国时序数据、Panel数据以及典型地区的数据对城乡转型和农地非农化的因果关系进行系统的研究。从宏观上发现了城乡转型与农地非农化之间的正向相关关系,他们之间的双向因果关系可能存在区域性特征。
第4章城乡转型与农地非农化的互动机理。将新经济地理理论作为主要的理论基础,首先,在简述这些理论研究进展的基础上,从微观上系统地分析了城乡转型与农地非农化的互动机理;然后,扩展Carlino-Mills模型,应用两阶段最小二乘法(TSLS)和普通最小二乘法(OLS)利用中国232个地级及以上城市层面的数据进行实证研究。研究结论进一步证实了城乡转型与农地非农化的相互影响相互作用的关系,城乡转型对农地非农化产生显著的正的影响,其中,城市人口对农地非农化的影响要大于非农就业对农地非农化的影响。反过来,农地非农化对城市人口产生显著的正的影响,但对就业非农化的影响并不显著。
第5章城乡转型与农地非农化的协调发展。前几章总体的研究结论认为,当前我国城乡转型的程度还很低,城乡转型的结构性偏差还严重,还需要大量的土地加快城乡转型的进程,农地非农化是不可避免的,但要与就业的非农化、人口的城市化同步。为协调两者的关系,政府干预是必然的,因为农地非农化归根究底是政府决策行为的结果。但是政府决策行为的目标重点应该是鼓励农地非农化支撑更多的人口、提供更多的就业机会。因此,本章在陈述农地非农化决策研究文献的基础上,从公共政策决策的视角,分析了农地非农化决策的方法一成本效益分析的优势和不足,提出了将其与人口/就业分析相结合的决策方法,为协调城乡转型与农地非农化的关系提供长效、有力的工具。在此基础上,提出加快城乡转型,控制农地非农化的六大建议。
第6章结论与展望。总结和归纳全文的主要研究结论,并对论文存在的不足进行相关讨论,指出未来的研究展望。
论文在以下几个方面进行了尝试性的创新:(1)构建了城乡转型与农地非农化互动关系的“过程—关系—机理—协调”理论分析框架,将城乡转型与农地非农化结合起来,从宏观和微观层次进行了系统研究。(2)应用Granger因果检验方法,利用中国时序数据、Panel数据以及处于不同转型阶段的典型地区数据对城乡转型与农地非农化的因果关系进行了检验。(3)提出了将成本效益分析与人口/就业分析相结合的农地非农化公共政策决策方法,为协调城乡转型与农地非农化的关系提供了长效、有力的工具。
Rural-urban Transformation is an important socio-economic phenomenon worldwide since the 18th century. Based on international experience, China is in rapid transitions, but has shown outstanding lagged features: rural-urban structural transformation of society with high proportion of rural population; rural-urban structural transformation of industry with low proportion of the tertiary industry output value; rural-urban structural transformation of employment with high proportion of agricultural workers and with low proportion of workers from the third industry. Those non-balanced development in urban and rural areas has become serious structural contradictions which may constraint China's comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development in the 21st century. Therefore, governments all levels have emphasized on accelerating urbanization process and promoting rapid rural-urban transformation as basic strategy. However,rapid rural-urban transformation is/will be threating on farmland conversion. Coordinating the relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion has risen to be the strategic problem for countries in transitions. So, research on the interactive relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion will help speed up the process of transitions, make rational use of land resource and achieve the objective of coordinated development in urban and rural area, which is of great theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the principles of development economics, regional economics, new economic geography, urban economics, land economics, statistics and spatial statistics, econometrics, public policy theory, the paper employ general methods such as combining macrocosm with microcosm research, qualitative with quantitative research, static with dynamic research, normative with empirical studies,specific research methods such as cluster analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, Granger causality test method, ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares method. Tools such as Excel, SPSS, Eview and MapInfo are used. The paper is divided into six chapters focusing on the analytical framework of "process-relationship-mechanism-coordination" ,which are organized as follows.
Chapter 1 introduces background, significance and objectives, describes literature review. And then, methodologies used in the paper are formed and possible innovations are summarized.
Chapter 2 analyzes temporal-spatial process and features of rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion respectively. Starting with the definition of rural-urban transformation from the aspects of rural-urban transformation for population, employment and industry, which are China's current serious structural contradictions and that of farmland conversion, the paper continues with an analysis on temporal-spatial process of rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion and summarizes some features, which preliminary reveal the relationship between rural-urban tansformation and farmland conversion to provide a basis for follow-up study.
Chapter 3 pretests the relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. Starting with literature review, the analytical framework for the correlation, the hypothesis of Kuznet's and especially the causality are constructed. Firstly, the Pearson correlation and the hypothesis of Kuznet's Curve are pretested. And then, Based on outlining the bounds test used to test Granger causality, the paper focuses on the causal relationship using time-series data, panel data and data from typical regions such as Zhejiang province, Hubei province and Guizhou province. Results show that there is positive correlation between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. There exists bio-directional causality, but the causality may exist regional characteristics.
Chapter 4 analyzes interactive mechanism between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. As a major theoretical basis, New Economic Geography is introduced, and then interactive mechanism between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion is analyzed qualitatively. Lastly, we establish such a framework taking account farmland conversion into Carlino-Mills's model on regional growth, employ two-stage-least-square (TSLS) and ordinary-least-square (OLS) to estimate the interrelationship and test the model using recent data for district (grade) cities in China(from 1999 and 2005. Results further confirms that conclusion that rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion interact each other. Rural-urban transformation influences farmland conversion and it is positive and significant. but the evidence that the change of urban population influences rural urban land conversion is more stronger than the evidence that the change of non-agricultural employment does.Conversely, Farmland conversion influences rural-urban transformation in a positive way, but the evidence that farmland conversion influences the change of urban population is significantly and the evidence that farmland conversion influences the change of off-farm employment is not.
Chapter 5 is to coordinate relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. Conclusions on the preceding chapters show that the degree of China's rural-urban transformation is currently still low, the structural contradictions are still serious and a large amount of land is still required to accelerate the process of rural-urban transformation.So, it is unavoidable for farmland conversion, which must coordinate with rural-urban transformation for population and employment. To coordinate relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion, it is inevitable for the government to interview, because farmland conversion is above all the result of decision-making behavior of the government. But the goal of the government's desion-making should encourage farmland conversion to support more urban population, provide more jobs and opportunities. Therefore, starting with introduction of literature review on decision- making of farmland conversion, the chapter analyzes cost-benefit methods and presents a methodology combining cost-benefit analysis and population-based or job-based analysis for decision-making of public policy, which provide a long-term and powerful tool to coordinate relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. Lastly, six policy recommendations are put forward.
Chapter 6 presents the main conclusions and future researches.
Possible contributions are summarized as follows: (1) Combining rural-urban transformation with farmland conversion, the paper presents a theoretical analysis framework of "process-relationship-mechanisam-coordination",which is applied to do researches on interactive relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion at macro-level and at micro-level.(2)Employing Granger causality test,using time-series data,Panel data and data in typical region in different stage of transformation,the paper tests the causality between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion.(3)The paper presents a methodology combining cost-benefit analysis with population-based or job-based analysis for decision-making of public policy,which help coordinate the relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion at a long term.
文章综合运用发展经济学、区域经济学、新经济地理学、城市经济学、土地经济学、统计学和空间统计学、计量经济学、公共政策理论的原理和方法进行研究,采用宏观研究和微观研究相结合、定性研究与定量研究相结合、静态研究与动态研究相结合、规范研究和实证研究相结合等一般性的研究方法。具体研究方法包括聚类分析方法、Pearson相关分析方法、Granger因果检验方法、普通最小二乘法和两阶段最小二乘法。采用的工具有Excel软件、SPSS软件、Eview计量软件以及Mapinfo成图软件。文章共分六章,围绕“过程—关系—机理—协调”分析框架对城乡转型与农地非农化的互动关系进行了尝试性的探讨,各章研究内容为:
第1章前言。在对问题有感性认识的基础上,通过文献研读,进一步加深对问题的理解;明确研究意义和研究目的,形成论文的研究思路。
第2章城乡转型与农地非农化的时空过程和特征。从城乡人口转型、城乡就业结构转型和城乡产业结构转型三个角度界定城乡转型概念、农地非农化概念的基础上,全面系统分析城乡转型与农地非农化的时空过程,归纳城乡转型与农地非农化的五大特征,初步揭示两者之间的关系,为后续研究提供依据。
第3章城乡转型与农地非农化的相互关系。对城乡转型与农地非农化相互关系研究文献进行综述的基础上,构建了一个包括相关关系、库兹涅茨曲线关系以及因果关系的相互关系研究框架。首先对城乡转型与农地非农化的相关关系以及库兹涅茨曲线关系进行了一般性的考察,然后着重对两者因果关系的研究方法进行了论述,并运用中国时序数据、Panel数据以及典型地区的数据对城乡转型和农地非农化的因果关系进行系统的研究。从宏观上发现了城乡转型与农地非农化之间的正向相关关系,他们之间的双向因果关系可能存在区域性特征。
第4章城乡转型与农地非农化的互动机理。将新经济地理理论作为主要的理论基础,首先,在简述这些理论研究进展的基础上,从微观上系统地分析了城乡转型与农地非农化的互动机理;然后,扩展Carlino-Mills模型,应用两阶段最小二乘法(TSLS)和普通最小二乘法(OLS)利用中国232个地级及以上城市层面的数据进行实证研究。研究结论进一步证实了城乡转型与农地非农化的相互影响相互作用的关系,城乡转型对农地非农化产生显著的正的影响,其中,城市人口对农地非农化的影响要大于非农就业对农地非农化的影响。反过来,农地非农化对城市人口产生显著的正的影响,但对就业非农化的影响并不显著。
第5章城乡转型与农地非农化的协调发展。前几章总体的研究结论认为,当前我国城乡转型的程度还很低,城乡转型的结构性偏差还严重,还需要大量的土地加快城乡转型的进程,农地非农化是不可避免的,但要与就业的非农化、人口的城市化同步。为协调两者的关系,政府干预是必然的,因为农地非农化归根究底是政府决策行为的结果。但是政府决策行为的目标重点应该是鼓励农地非农化支撑更多的人口、提供更多的就业机会。因此,本章在陈述农地非农化决策研究文献的基础上,从公共政策决策的视角,分析了农地非农化决策的方法一成本效益分析的优势和不足,提出了将其与人口/就业分析相结合的决策方法,为协调城乡转型与农地非农化的关系提供长效、有力的工具。在此基础上,提出加快城乡转型,控制农地非农化的六大建议。
第6章结论与展望。总结和归纳全文的主要研究结论,并对论文存在的不足进行相关讨论,指出未来的研究展望。
论文在以下几个方面进行了尝试性的创新:(1)构建了城乡转型与农地非农化互动关系的“过程—关系—机理—协调”理论分析框架,将城乡转型与农地非农化结合起来,从宏观和微观层次进行了系统研究。(2)应用Granger因果检验方法,利用中国时序数据、Panel数据以及处于不同转型阶段的典型地区数据对城乡转型与农地非农化的因果关系进行了检验。(3)提出了将成本效益分析与人口/就业分析相结合的农地非农化公共政策决策方法,为协调城乡转型与农地非农化的关系提供了长效、有力的工具。
Rural-urban Transformation is an important socio-economic phenomenon worldwide since the 18th century. Based on international experience, China is in rapid transitions, but has shown outstanding lagged features: rural-urban structural transformation of society with high proportion of rural population; rural-urban structural transformation of industry with low proportion of the tertiary industry output value; rural-urban structural transformation of employment with high proportion of agricultural workers and with low proportion of workers from the third industry. Those non-balanced development in urban and rural areas has become serious structural contradictions which may constraint China's comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development in the 21st century. Therefore, governments all levels have emphasized on accelerating urbanization process and promoting rapid rural-urban transformation as basic strategy. However,rapid rural-urban transformation is/will be threating on farmland conversion. Coordinating the relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion has risen to be the strategic problem for countries in transitions. So, research on the interactive relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion will help speed up the process of transitions, make rational use of land resource and achieve the objective of coordinated development in urban and rural area, which is of great theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the principles of development economics, regional economics, new economic geography, urban economics, land economics, statistics and spatial statistics, econometrics, public policy theory, the paper employ general methods such as combining macrocosm with microcosm research, qualitative with quantitative research, static with dynamic research, normative with empirical studies,specific research methods such as cluster analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, Granger causality test method, ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares method. Tools such as Excel, SPSS, Eview and MapInfo are used. The paper is divided into six chapters focusing on the analytical framework of "process-relationship-mechanism-coordination" ,which are organized as follows.
Chapter 1 introduces background, significance and objectives, describes literature review. And then, methodologies used in the paper are formed and possible innovations are summarized.
Chapter 2 analyzes temporal-spatial process and features of rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion respectively. Starting with the definition of rural-urban transformation from the aspects of rural-urban transformation for population, employment and industry, which are China's current serious structural contradictions and that of farmland conversion, the paper continues with an analysis on temporal-spatial process of rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion and summarizes some features, which preliminary reveal the relationship between rural-urban tansformation and farmland conversion to provide a basis for follow-up study.
Chapter 3 pretests the relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. Starting with literature review, the analytical framework for the correlation, the hypothesis of Kuznet's and especially the causality are constructed. Firstly, the Pearson correlation and the hypothesis of Kuznet's Curve are pretested. And then, Based on outlining the bounds test used to test Granger causality, the paper focuses on the causal relationship using time-series data, panel data and data from typical regions such as Zhejiang province, Hubei province and Guizhou province. Results show that there is positive correlation between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. There exists bio-directional causality, but the causality may exist regional characteristics.
Chapter 4 analyzes interactive mechanism between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. As a major theoretical basis, New Economic Geography is introduced, and then interactive mechanism between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion is analyzed qualitatively. Lastly, we establish such a framework taking account farmland conversion into Carlino-Mills's model on regional growth, employ two-stage-least-square (TSLS) and ordinary-least-square (OLS) to estimate the interrelationship and test the model using recent data for district (grade) cities in China(from 1999 and 2005. Results further confirms that conclusion that rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion interact each other. Rural-urban transformation influences farmland conversion and it is positive and significant. but the evidence that the change of urban population influences rural urban land conversion is more stronger than the evidence that the change of non-agricultural employment does.Conversely, Farmland conversion influences rural-urban transformation in a positive way, but the evidence that farmland conversion influences the change of urban population is significantly and the evidence that farmland conversion influences the change of off-farm employment is not.
Chapter 5 is to coordinate relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. Conclusions on the preceding chapters show that the degree of China's rural-urban transformation is currently still low, the structural contradictions are still serious and a large amount of land is still required to accelerate the process of rural-urban transformation.So, it is unavoidable for farmland conversion, which must coordinate with rural-urban transformation for population and employment. To coordinate relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion, it is inevitable for the government to interview, because farmland conversion is above all the result of decision-making behavior of the government. But the goal of the government's desion-making should encourage farmland conversion to support more urban population, provide more jobs and opportunities. Therefore, starting with introduction of literature review on decision- making of farmland conversion, the chapter analyzes cost-benefit methods and presents a methodology combining cost-benefit analysis and population-based or job-based analysis for decision-making of public policy, which provide a long-term and powerful tool to coordinate relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion. Lastly, six policy recommendations are put forward.
Chapter 6 presents the main conclusions and future researches.
Possible contributions are summarized as follows: (1) Combining rural-urban transformation with farmland conversion, the paper presents a theoretical analysis framework of "process-relationship-mechanisam-coordination",which is applied to do researches on interactive relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion at macro-level and at micro-level.(2)Employing Granger causality test,using time-series data,Panel data and data in typical region in different stage of transformation,the paper tests the causality between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion.(3)The paper presents a methodology combining cost-benefit analysis with population-based or job-based analysis for decision-making of public policy,which help coordinate the relationship between rural-urban transformation and farmland conversion at a long term.
引文
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