我国高校财务困境成因与预警研究
摘要
自从1999年高校实行大规模扩招政策以来,高校贷款在我国公办高校中开始大面积铺开,而且随着高校贷款的逐步升级和还贷期的日益临近,一些曾经“隐蔽”的危机开始显现出来,高校的财务风险和财务困境逐渐突显,并呈现日益加剧的态势。虽然财务困境问题在我国高校普遍存在,但目前国内对财务困境的研究大多数还只是局限于企业的财务困境。在对全国部分高校进行了财务困境相关问题问卷调查的基础上,总结了与企业财务困境并不相同的高校财务困境的特征和指标体系,考察了高校财务困境与过度负债贷款融资之间的关系,通过借鉴财务管理、非营利组织等相关理论,探究了高校财务困境的深层次原因,提出了解除高校财务困境的对策和高校财务预警机制。
论文共分为七章,各章的主要内容和结论如下:
第一章提出研究问题,阐释论文的逻辑思路和研究意义、创新点,并在国内外学者的研究基础上提出了本文对高校财务困境概念的界定。
第二章对相关文献进行梳理和评价。纵观国内外的研究可以发现,国外关于财务困境的研究已经比较成熟,而国内对财务困境问题的研究开始得比较晚,关于高校财务困境问题的研究就更少了。本文从财务困境成因研究、财务困境预警研究以及财务困境对策研究三个方面进行了文献回顾,进而确定了本文的研究方向,即从财务困境的原因和预警两个角度对高校财务困境进行研究。
第三章为制度背景分析。首先分析了1999年前后中国财政政策与高校扩招的政策;然后分析了中国高校管理体制与教学评估的影响;最后对比了中国和美国高校财务管理的体制,发现中国和美国的共同点是高校的融资渠道相同,高校贷款并不是中国特有的,美国高校也有很多贷款。但不同点是,美国高校的贷款都是有担保的,而且风险控制很严格。
第四章为高校财务困境成因的理论分析。首先分析了高校财务困境的表现;其次运用财务管理理论和非营利组织的相关理论对高校财务困境的成因进行分析和论述,最后联系第三章制度背景的内容对高校财务原因进行详细的分析,并提出高校财务困境原因的研究假设。
第五章在文献回顾和理论分析的基础上,通过实证研究验证了以下高校财务困境的原因:(1)高校贷款额度;(2)高校的筹资渠道;(3)高校基础设施建设决策的科学性;(4)高校校舍建设标准的高低;(5)高校的规模大小。
此外,政府对高校的管理、各种教学评估指标的制定、政府对高校基建投资的数额、高校财务会计制度、高校(内部)投资体制管理、高校财务内部控制制度等因素也会是引发高校财务困境的成因。
第六章对高校财务困境预警问题的进行了实证研究,构造了高校财务困境预警模型。本论文通过调查问卷的方式获取2003年到2007年高校财务数据、困境程度等,然后利用Logit回归模型建立高校每一困境层级的财务预警模型,最后,将这些模型进行归纳总结,构造一套财务预警体系。实证研究结果表明:高校的一些财务比率(包括反映高校贷款偿还情况、收入情况、基建情况、偿债能力、资产结构、管理能力和现金流指标等),能够对高校财务困境进行预警。
第七章总结了论文的主要结论,提出了相关政策建议,并指出了论文研究中存在的不足之处和进一步研究的方向。
本论文的创新点在于:第一,本文借鉴财务困境相关理论,对高校的财务困境问题进行了系统的分析,提出了高校财务困境的理论框架:首先依照现金流量标准,总结了高校财务困境的特征和指标体系;
第二,通过实证研究发现:对于高校来讲,也存在与企业类似的困境成因,即高校财务困境虽然往往直接原因是过度贷款融资,但高校的治理和管理因素是高校财务困境的深层次原因;
第三,通过借鉴财务管理理论和非营利组织的相关理论,将高校财务困境分为五个层级,结合问卷调查与实证研究,建立了分层级的高校财务困境的预警模型,构建了一套高校财务预警体系,最后根据这些理论提出解决高校财务困境的对策。
Since 1999, Chinese universities have implemented the expansion enrollment policy; as a result, their financial liability increased dramatically. And with repays time approaching day by day, some "hiding crisis" starts to come out and universities's financial risk and difficulty have been brought into focus. Although the problem exists commonly in our universities, the research on financial distress is still limited to that of the enterprises in our country. Having based on the questionnaire survey of some universities' financial distress, the dissertation summarized the characteristics and the indicator system of these universities's financial distress, which are different from that of the enterprises. And the dissertation inspected the relationship between financial distress and loan. The dissertation also inquired the deep reasons for universities' financial distress and proposed countermeasures to eliminate the financial difficulties and put forward the warning mechanism of financial distress by employment of finance management and non-for-profit-organization theories.
The dissertation was divided into six chapters. The main coverage and conclusion of each chapter is as follows.
The first chapter proposed the research question. It explained the logical thinking, research significance and innovation of the dissertation. It also defined the university's financial distress of this dissertation based on the domestic and foreign scholars' research.
The second chapter reviewed the related literature. The domestic research on financial distress started late, the university financial distress in partiucular; whereas research abroad has been mature. This dissertation analysed the literature from the reasons, finance warning mechanism and the countermeasures. And it determined two directions of the research: the reasons of financial difficulties and the warning mechanism.
The third chapter is about system background analysis. Firstly, it analysed the China financial policy and the university enrollment policy. Before 1999, the principle of our university's financial management insisted "expenditures on the basis of income, the balanced revenues and expenditures". The university expansion enrollment policy in 1999 and the government's positive financial policy had a large impact on the loan of university. Secondly, it concluded that the governance of China's university had a large influence on the appraisal of teaching. Lastly, the dissertation contrasted Chinese and American University's financial management systems. It discovered that the common characteristics of both are they have the same channel of financing. But the American University's loan has the guarantee and the risk control is very strict.
The fourth chapter is about the performance and theoretical analysis of university finance distress. Firstly, it defined the definition of university financial distress and its performance. Secondly, using the theory of finance control, corporate governance, and capital structure and relating to the third chapter, it proposed the research supposition of financial distress. Based on the analysis, it was conclude that the main reason of university financial distress is large loan. Therefore, the dissertation analysed the reasons of university financial distress and the warning mechanism in the fifth and sixth chapter.
The fifth chapter is to confirm the reasons of financial distress using empirical research: the amount of loan; the channel of financing; the decision-making of university's infrastructure facilities construction; the standard of school building; the university's scale.
In addition, the governance to university's management, the standard of teaching appraisal, the amount of money government gave to the university's infrastructure construction, the financial accounting system; the management of university internal control and so on is also the reasons of university financial distress.
The sixth chapter is the empirical research on the university warning mechanism. The dissertation gained the financial ratios of 2003 to 2007 through questionnaire. And using the method of Logit regression, it forecast whether the university would have the financial difficulty in the current year. The empirical result indicated that some financial ratio including the short-term debt, long-term debt, capital ratios and cash flow etc. can demonstrate the possibility of universities' falling into finance difficulty. But the characteristic of the university's financial situation needs to be considered when this approach is used.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion of this dissertation. It proposed some countermeasures to prevent universities from falling into financial difficulty. Also it pointed out the deficiency of this research and direction for further studies.
The innovations are as follows: the first, the theory of enterprise finance distress was applied in analysing the university's finance distress.
Secondly, the dissertation confirmed the reasons of financial distress by using empirical research.
Finally, the dissertation inquired the warning mechanism of financial distress by employment of finance control theory.
论文共分为七章,各章的主要内容和结论如下:
第一章提出研究问题,阐释论文的逻辑思路和研究意义、创新点,并在国内外学者的研究基础上提出了本文对高校财务困境概念的界定。
第二章对相关文献进行梳理和评价。纵观国内外的研究可以发现,国外关于财务困境的研究已经比较成熟,而国内对财务困境问题的研究开始得比较晚,关于高校财务困境问题的研究就更少了。本文从财务困境成因研究、财务困境预警研究以及财务困境对策研究三个方面进行了文献回顾,进而确定了本文的研究方向,即从财务困境的原因和预警两个角度对高校财务困境进行研究。
第三章为制度背景分析。首先分析了1999年前后中国财政政策与高校扩招的政策;然后分析了中国高校管理体制与教学评估的影响;最后对比了中国和美国高校财务管理的体制,发现中国和美国的共同点是高校的融资渠道相同,高校贷款并不是中国特有的,美国高校也有很多贷款。但不同点是,美国高校的贷款都是有担保的,而且风险控制很严格。
第四章为高校财务困境成因的理论分析。首先分析了高校财务困境的表现;其次运用财务管理理论和非营利组织的相关理论对高校财务困境的成因进行分析和论述,最后联系第三章制度背景的内容对高校财务原因进行详细的分析,并提出高校财务困境原因的研究假设。
第五章在文献回顾和理论分析的基础上,通过实证研究验证了以下高校财务困境的原因:(1)高校贷款额度;(2)高校的筹资渠道;(3)高校基础设施建设决策的科学性;(4)高校校舍建设标准的高低;(5)高校的规模大小。
此外,政府对高校的管理、各种教学评估指标的制定、政府对高校基建投资的数额、高校财务会计制度、高校(内部)投资体制管理、高校财务内部控制制度等因素也会是引发高校财务困境的成因。
第六章对高校财务困境预警问题的进行了实证研究,构造了高校财务困境预警模型。本论文通过调查问卷的方式获取2003年到2007年高校财务数据、困境程度等,然后利用Logit回归模型建立高校每一困境层级的财务预警模型,最后,将这些模型进行归纳总结,构造一套财务预警体系。实证研究结果表明:高校的一些财务比率(包括反映高校贷款偿还情况、收入情况、基建情况、偿债能力、资产结构、管理能力和现金流指标等),能够对高校财务困境进行预警。
第七章总结了论文的主要结论,提出了相关政策建议,并指出了论文研究中存在的不足之处和进一步研究的方向。
本论文的创新点在于:第一,本文借鉴财务困境相关理论,对高校的财务困境问题进行了系统的分析,提出了高校财务困境的理论框架:首先依照现金流量标准,总结了高校财务困境的特征和指标体系;
第二,通过实证研究发现:对于高校来讲,也存在与企业类似的困境成因,即高校财务困境虽然往往直接原因是过度贷款融资,但高校的治理和管理因素是高校财务困境的深层次原因;
第三,通过借鉴财务管理理论和非营利组织的相关理论,将高校财务困境分为五个层级,结合问卷调查与实证研究,建立了分层级的高校财务困境的预警模型,构建了一套高校财务预警体系,最后根据这些理论提出解决高校财务困境的对策。
Since 1999, Chinese universities have implemented the expansion enrollment policy; as a result, their financial liability increased dramatically. And with repays time approaching day by day, some "hiding crisis" starts to come out and universities's financial risk and difficulty have been brought into focus. Although the problem exists commonly in our universities, the research on financial distress is still limited to that of the enterprises in our country. Having based on the questionnaire survey of some universities' financial distress, the dissertation summarized the characteristics and the indicator system of these universities's financial distress, which are different from that of the enterprises. And the dissertation inspected the relationship between financial distress and loan. The dissertation also inquired the deep reasons for universities' financial distress and proposed countermeasures to eliminate the financial difficulties and put forward the warning mechanism of financial distress by employment of finance management and non-for-profit-organization theories.
The dissertation was divided into six chapters. The main coverage and conclusion of each chapter is as follows.
The first chapter proposed the research question. It explained the logical thinking, research significance and innovation of the dissertation. It also defined the university's financial distress of this dissertation based on the domestic and foreign scholars' research.
The second chapter reviewed the related literature. The domestic research on financial distress started late, the university financial distress in partiucular; whereas research abroad has been mature. This dissertation analysed the literature from the reasons, finance warning mechanism and the countermeasures. And it determined two directions of the research: the reasons of financial difficulties and the warning mechanism.
The third chapter is about system background analysis. Firstly, it analysed the China financial policy and the university enrollment policy. Before 1999, the principle of our university's financial management insisted "expenditures on the basis of income, the balanced revenues and expenditures". The university expansion enrollment policy in 1999 and the government's positive financial policy had a large impact on the loan of university. Secondly, it concluded that the governance of China's university had a large influence on the appraisal of teaching. Lastly, the dissertation contrasted Chinese and American University's financial management systems. It discovered that the common characteristics of both are they have the same channel of financing. But the American University's loan has the guarantee and the risk control is very strict.
The fourth chapter is about the performance and theoretical analysis of university finance distress. Firstly, it defined the definition of university financial distress and its performance. Secondly, using the theory of finance control, corporate governance, and capital structure and relating to the third chapter, it proposed the research supposition of financial distress. Based on the analysis, it was conclude that the main reason of university financial distress is large loan. Therefore, the dissertation analysed the reasons of university financial distress and the warning mechanism in the fifth and sixth chapter.
The fifth chapter is to confirm the reasons of financial distress using empirical research: the amount of loan; the channel of financing; the decision-making of university's infrastructure facilities construction; the standard of school building; the university's scale.
In addition, the governance to university's management, the standard of teaching appraisal, the amount of money government gave to the university's infrastructure construction, the financial accounting system; the management of university internal control and so on is also the reasons of university financial distress.
The sixth chapter is the empirical research on the university warning mechanism. The dissertation gained the financial ratios of 2003 to 2007 through questionnaire. And using the method of Logit regression, it forecast whether the university would have the financial difficulty in the current year. The empirical result indicated that some financial ratio including the short-term debt, long-term debt, capital ratios and cash flow etc. can demonstrate the possibility of universities' falling into finance difficulty. But the characteristic of the university's financial situation needs to be considered when this approach is used.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion of this dissertation. It proposed some countermeasures to prevent universities from falling into financial difficulty. Also it pointed out the deficiency of this research and direction for further studies.
The innovations are as follows: the first, the theory of enterprise finance distress was applied in analysing the university's finance distress.
Secondly, the dissertation confirmed the reasons of financial distress by using empirical research.
Finally, the dissertation inquired the warning mechanism of financial distress by employment of finance control theory.
引文
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