中国房地产信贷风险的度量与控制研究
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摘要
房地产业是国民经济的基础性产业,是国民经济中不可缺少的重要组成部分,房地产业的发展对于优化调整产业结构,促进社会稳定和经济发展具有十分重要的作用。房地产业与金融业相互依存,房地产业的快速发展得益于金融业的大力支持。虽然房地产业融资渠道较多,但银行信贷资金是房地产业首要的和最为重要的资金来源,房地产信贷推动了整个房地产业的健康发展,同时为国民经济的快速增长发挥出了积极作用。随着房地产业的快速发展,中国的房地产信贷也得到了快速发展,成为各家商业银行信贷竞争的重要领域。虽然目前中国房地产信贷结构总体较为合理,信贷资产质量也相对较好,但是由于中国房地产市场机制不健全,国家对房地产业的行政干预较多,商业银行在满足房地产信贷资金需求的同时,也承担了房地产业大量的融资风险。中国银行业应当汲取日本和美国等国外房地产业发展具有代表性国家的信贷风险管理经验和教训,尤其是要密切关注2007年初所爆发的美国次贷危机对世界经济,乃至中国银行业的危害,认真反思中国房地产信贷风险控制的缺陷。
受宏观经济周期波动因素影响,房地产信贷在发展过程中不可避免的存在着周期波动现象,每一次经济波动的同时都会伴随着信贷周期的出现。房地产信贷周期最根本的驱动因素是经济增长率的波动性,即经济周期。房地产市场销售价格和租金形成了媒介房地产需求、建筑开发和房地产信贷需求的价格信号。房地产销售价格决定了房地产信贷抵押品的评估价格和处置变现率。房地产抵押品的价格效应同样会影响银行的信用效应,房地产价格的上升使得期望收益率上升,房地产信贷风险被低估,金融业大力发展房地产信贷业务又使得房地产信贷的行业集中度过高,出现房地产信贷的“灾难性短视”,从而增加了房地产周期的风险。另外,房地产产品的不可移动性和消费的地域性,以及区域间明显的级差收益,形成了明显的房地产信贷区域差异。不同区域内的房地产信贷风险,表现形式和风险程度各不相同。
对于单个商业银行而言,应当充分考虑到房地产信贷风险的隐蔽性、滞后性和长期性的特征,高度重视房地产信贷风险,针对房地产公司信贷和零售信贷的不同特点,严格审查房地产项目或借款人收入状况、还款来源、过去信誉、贷款用途等,通过贷前风险的判断和决策、房地产信贷的信用风险度量等,增强房地产信贷非系统性风险的度量和控制能力。
长期以来,中国商业银行房地产信贷风险度量工具和控制手段落后,尚未形成一个适应现代商业银行制度要求和保持信贷业务可持续发展的房地产信贷风险度量体系,极不利于规避和分散房地产信贷风险。处于综合化转型时期的中国商业银行,应当充分认识到房价快速上涨所掩盖的大量风险,重视房地产周期调整引发的信贷风险,尤其是房地产信贷业务的信用风险、操作风险、政策性风险以及突发性事件引发的系统性风险等,谨慎推进金融工具创新,严格信贷标准和要求,强化信贷资金的管理,加强内控制度建设,不断提高风险防控能力。中国房地产金融二级市场建设缓慢,商业银行缺乏风险分散和风险转移的工具,难以将抵押贷款证券化变为流动性的资产,造成了大量的信贷风险集中于商业银行。因此,针对形成房地产信贷风险的各种因素,实施差别化的房地产信贷风险度量和风险控制,才能够保持中国房地产信贷的健康、持续发展。
In our national economy real estate is a basic industry and serves as an important constituent part that may not be neglected. The development of real estate industry has been playing a very important role in optimizing the adjustment of industry framework, improving social stability and economic development. Being accompanied by financial industry the rapid development of real estate industry benefits from the strong support of the financial industry. Although there have been different means of financing for real estate companies, the loans from bank must be an all-important financing source, which have promoted the healthy development of the whole real estate industry and played an active role in China economy. With the development of real estate industry the credit loaning for real estate industry in China has developed very fast and also become the important field in which the commercial banks have been competing with each other for giving loans. At present the credit loaning framework in China real estate industry is reasonable on the whole and the quality of credit asset is also in good condition, but both because of half-baked system of China real estate market and the frequent controls on real estate industry from the government the commercial banks will undertake the risks from the finance of real estate companies. So Chinese bank industry has to learn the experiences and lessons on the management of credit risk suffered by the representative countries such as Japan, USA during their course of real estate industry development, especially focusing on the damages derived from the US subprime crisis burst out in 2007 on the world economy and Chinese bank industry. It is also necessary to think about seriously the shortcomings of the credit risk of China real estate industry.
Influenced by the fluctuation of the macro economy cycle, it is inevitable for the development of real estate industry to be amid the changes of the cycle. The economy waved each time will always be accompanied by the presence of credit cycle. The most important driving factor of real estate cycle is tightly related to the economic growth rate, so called economic cycle. The sale price and rent in the real estate market will give the price signals of the media demand of the real estate as well as the demand of the construction development and real estate credit. The sale price of real estate decides the evaluating price and accounting liquidity ratio of the credit mortgage of real estate. At the same time the price effect of real estate mortgage would influence the credit effect of the banks. The increasing price of the real estate would create the expectation of earning rate going up so as to underestimate the credit risk of real estate. The "disastrous short-view" of real estate credit results from the strong support from the financial industry to the development of real estate credit operation that makes the real estate credit over-concentrated, so that the risk of real estate cycle will be increased. In addition the regional differentiation of real estate credit will be formed by the unmoveable and the local consumption of the real estate products as well as the apparently different earning among the different regions. So the risk of real estate credit of the different region will have different representation and their risk degrees are also not the same.
As for as the single commercial bank is concerned, it should fully consider the hidden, lagged-behind and long-term characteristics of the real estate credit risk, paying special attention to the risk of real estate credit. In terms of the different characteristics between the credit of real estate companies and that of retail, the commercial bank should checkup strictly the income conditions of the borrower, the source of the returning money, the credit-standing of the past and the use of the loan. By all means mentioned above the commercial bank can at last enhance its measuring and hedging ability of the unsystematic risk of the real estate credit.
The measuring tools and hedging methods for real estate credit risk of Chinese commercial banks have been somewhat backward. The measuring system of real estate credit risk has not formed yet, which adapts well to the demand of the modern commercial bank system and maintains sustainable development of the credit operations. During the time of the synthetical reformation Chinese commercial banks must realize that the rapidly increasing price of houses would cover large numbers of risks, think much of the risks derived from the adjustment of the real estate cycle, especially the risks of real estate company's credit-standing, of operation and policy as well as the systematic risk taking place unexpectively. Chinese commercial banks also need to promote prudently the innovation of financial tools, be very strict with the credit standards and demands, enhance the management of the credit capital, improve the construction of the inner-controlling systems and increase gradually the ability of hedging risks. The second-class market for real estate financing is being built so slowly that commercial banks are short of the tools of risk distribution and transferring, they are difficult to transfer the loan on mortgage into securities so as to make the assets liquid, this kind of conditions will concentrate large numbers of the risks upon the commercial banks. Therefore, in terms of the factors that create the risk of real estate credit, different kinds of risk measuring and hedging methods should be carried out so that we can maintain the healthy and sustainable development of real estate credit in China.
受宏观经济周期波动因素影响,房地产信贷在发展过程中不可避免的存在着周期波动现象,每一次经济波动的同时都会伴随着信贷周期的出现。房地产信贷周期最根本的驱动因素是经济增长率的波动性,即经济周期。房地产市场销售价格和租金形成了媒介房地产需求、建筑开发和房地产信贷需求的价格信号。房地产销售价格决定了房地产信贷抵押品的评估价格和处置变现率。房地产抵押品的价格效应同样会影响银行的信用效应,房地产价格的上升使得期望收益率上升,房地产信贷风险被低估,金融业大力发展房地产信贷业务又使得房地产信贷的行业集中度过高,出现房地产信贷的“灾难性短视”,从而增加了房地产周期的风险。另外,房地产产品的不可移动性和消费的地域性,以及区域间明显的级差收益,形成了明显的房地产信贷区域差异。不同区域内的房地产信贷风险,表现形式和风险程度各不相同。
对于单个商业银行而言,应当充分考虑到房地产信贷风险的隐蔽性、滞后性和长期性的特征,高度重视房地产信贷风险,针对房地产公司信贷和零售信贷的不同特点,严格审查房地产项目或借款人收入状况、还款来源、过去信誉、贷款用途等,通过贷前风险的判断和决策、房地产信贷的信用风险度量等,增强房地产信贷非系统性风险的度量和控制能力。
长期以来,中国商业银行房地产信贷风险度量工具和控制手段落后,尚未形成一个适应现代商业银行制度要求和保持信贷业务可持续发展的房地产信贷风险度量体系,极不利于规避和分散房地产信贷风险。处于综合化转型时期的中国商业银行,应当充分认识到房价快速上涨所掩盖的大量风险,重视房地产周期调整引发的信贷风险,尤其是房地产信贷业务的信用风险、操作风险、政策性风险以及突发性事件引发的系统性风险等,谨慎推进金融工具创新,严格信贷标准和要求,强化信贷资金的管理,加强内控制度建设,不断提高风险防控能力。中国房地产金融二级市场建设缓慢,商业银行缺乏风险分散和风险转移的工具,难以将抵押贷款证券化变为流动性的资产,造成了大量的信贷风险集中于商业银行。因此,针对形成房地产信贷风险的各种因素,实施差别化的房地产信贷风险度量和风险控制,才能够保持中国房地产信贷的健康、持续发展。
In our national economy real estate is a basic industry and serves as an important constituent part that may not be neglected. The development of real estate industry has been playing a very important role in optimizing the adjustment of industry framework, improving social stability and economic development. Being accompanied by financial industry the rapid development of real estate industry benefits from the strong support of the financial industry. Although there have been different means of financing for real estate companies, the loans from bank must be an all-important financing source, which have promoted the healthy development of the whole real estate industry and played an active role in China economy. With the development of real estate industry the credit loaning for real estate industry in China has developed very fast and also become the important field in which the commercial banks have been competing with each other for giving loans. At present the credit loaning framework in China real estate industry is reasonable on the whole and the quality of credit asset is also in good condition, but both because of half-baked system of China real estate market and the frequent controls on real estate industry from the government the commercial banks will undertake the risks from the finance of real estate companies. So Chinese bank industry has to learn the experiences and lessons on the management of credit risk suffered by the representative countries such as Japan, USA during their course of real estate industry development, especially focusing on the damages derived from the US subprime crisis burst out in 2007 on the world economy and Chinese bank industry. It is also necessary to think about seriously the shortcomings of the credit risk of China real estate industry.
Influenced by the fluctuation of the macro economy cycle, it is inevitable for the development of real estate industry to be amid the changes of the cycle. The economy waved each time will always be accompanied by the presence of credit cycle. The most important driving factor of real estate cycle is tightly related to the economic growth rate, so called economic cycle. The sale price and rent in the real estate market will give the price signals of the media demand of the real estate as well as the demand of the construction development and real estate credit. The sale price of real estate decides the evaluating price and accounting liquidity ratio of the credit mortgage of real estate. At the same time the price effect of real estate mortgage would influence the credit effect of the banks. The increasing price of the real estate would create the expectation of earning rate going up so as to underestimate the credit risk of real estate. The "disastrous short-view" of real estate credit results from the strong support from the financial industry to the development of real estate credit operation that makes the real estate credit over-concentrated, so that the risk of real estate cycle will be increased. In addition the regional differentiation of real estate credit will be formed by the unmoveable and the local consumption of the real estate products as well as the apparently different earning among the different regions. So the risk of real estate credit of the different region will have different representation and their risk degrees are also not the same.
As for as the single commercial bank is concerned, it should fully consider the hidden, lagged-behind and long-term characteristics of the real estate credit risk, paying special attention to the risk of real estate credit. In terms of the different characteristics between the credit of real estate companies and that of retail, the commercial bank should checkup strictly the income conditions of the borrower, the source of the returning money, the credit-standing of the past and the use of the loan. By all means mentioned above the commercial bank can at last enhance its measuring and hedging ability of the unsystematic risk of the real estate credit.
The measuring tools and hedging methods for real estate credit risk of Chinese commercial banks have been somewhat backward. The measuring system of real estate credit risk has not formed yet, which adapts well to the demand of the modern commercial bank system and maintains sustainable development of the credit operations. During the time of the synthetical reformation Chinese commercial banks must realize that the rapidly increasing price of houses would cover large numbers of risks, think much of the risks derived from the adjustment of the real estate cycle, especially the risks of real estate company's credit-standing, of operation and policy as well as the systematic risk taking place unexpectively. Chinese commercial banks also need to promote prudently the innovation of financial tools, be very strict with the credit standards and demands, enhance the management of the credit capital, improve the construction of the inner-controlling systems and increase gradually the ability of hedging risks. The second-class market for real estate financing is being built so slowly that commercial banks are short of the tools of risk distribution and transferring, they are difficult to transfer the loan on mortgage into securities so as to make the assets liquid, this kind of conditions will concentrate large numbers of the risks upon the commercial banks. Therefore, in terms of the factors that create the risk of real estate credit, different kinds of risk measuring and hedging methods should be carried out so that we can maintain the healthy and sustainable development of real estate credit in China.
引文
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[1]按照中国人民银行统计口径,主要金融机构包括政策性银行、国有商业银行、其他商业银行、城市商业银行、农村商业银行、城市信用社、农村合作银行、农村信用社。
[2]引自中国人民银行金融市场司房地产金融分折小组的《中国房地产金融报告,2007》。
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