复杂地质条件下石门及井筒揭煤突出危险性快速预测研究
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摘要
本文在分析国内外现有石门及井筒揭煤突出危险性预测方法的基础上,发现现有单项指标法和综合指标法存在通用性不强、相关性较差、准确性较差及由此造成意外事故和浪费防突资源、预测参数测定时间过长且易受复杂地质条件影响等问题。为解决以上问题,本文以球壳失稳机理为基础,深入分析了石门及井筒揭煤的影响因素及预测模型,得出了合理的突出危险性预测指标。
煤与瓦斯突出的球壳失稳机理认为初始释放瓦斯膨胀能是煤体发生突出的唯一能源,可以作为石门及井筒揭煤突出危险性预测的指标。蒋承林教授根据46次突出模拟实验数据,采用Fisher判别分析法进行分析处理,证明采用初始释放瓦斯膨胀能和软煤厚度可以准确预测理想石门揭煤条件下的突出危险性,准确率可达到100%。如果单独仅采用初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标,准确率也能达到90.9%～96.7%,这时发生弱突出及突出的临界指标为42.98 mJ/g和103.8 mJ/g。以此建立了理想石门揭煤突出预测模型,分析了理想石门揭煤条件下突出的影响因素,认为可以将理想石门揭煤模型应用于石门及井筒揭煤突出危险性快速预测。
针对以上指标,详细阐述了初始释放瓦斯膨胀能实验测定方法,发现其测定主要受煤体破碎程度和瓦斯压力的影响,和瓦斯压力存在正比关系和破碎程度存在指数关系,但由于预测煤样均应是破碎程度最大的原始煤样,所以不再讨论其和初始释放瓦斯膨胀能的关系将突出危险预测的主要工作归结为现场瓦斯压力的测定。对瓦斯压力测定的影响因素进行了深入分析,发现人为因素是能否实现瓦斯压力快速准确测定的关键,通过数值解算及现场实验,找出了球向和径向流场卸压半径随时间扩展的规律,发现球向流量法在实现快速测定方面要明显优于径向流场法,平衡时间前者只有后者的10%左右,且排放时间越长,优势越明显。通过数值解算及实验发现,采用球向流量法时,无论透气性系数的大小,排空时间均在前30min内对平衡时间影响最大,达到52%~86%。采用球向流量法并在30min内完成封孔可以实现快速预测。
对复杂地质条件下瓦斯压力的快速测定进行了深入探讨,提出了封堵钻孔水系的对策及措施,利用现场实际和实验室实验,证明了可以在水系小流量渗流时通过瓦斯压力曲线中压力平衡平台的方法分离出水气共存条件下煤层的瓦斯压力。
根据复杂地质条件下瓦斯压力快速测定技术及初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标,准确为现场预测了十余处石门及井筒,预测的结论与现场的实际突出情况完全吻合,准确率达到100%,弥补了《防突细则》中预测指标的漏洞。并给出了打钻排放后煤层失去突出危险性的最低排放率,为现场进行安全揭煤提供了依据,同时减少了抽放钻孔排放时间,实现了石门及井筒揭煤过程的安全快速掘进。
The paper analyzes several present coal outburst hazard prediction methods when uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft, and finds some problems existing in the normal predict methods including single indicator prediction and multi-indicator prediction, such as poor generality and relativity, low accuracy and so on. What is more severe are the underlying problems, resource wasting and even the accidents. In addition, the long time consumed for prediction methods and the influence from the complicate geology also affect the prediction. To solve these problems, based on the mechanism of loss of spherical shell stability, the author analyzes the influence factors to the uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft and sets up the prediction model, then gets the prediction indicators for the outburst hazard prediction.
loss of spherical shell stability think that the expansion energy in initial released gas is the single energy resource to the coal outburst, so that it could be adopted as the prediction indicator. Professor Jiangchenglin employ the Fisher distinguish analysis method to analyze the results of 46 sets of simulation data, and prove that adopting the expansion energy in initial released gas and the thick of soft coal seam as the outburst prediction indicators to predict the outburst risk, the accuracy rate can be 100%; if the expansion energy in initial released gas adopted as the only indicator, the accuracy rate of prediction can from 90.9% to 96.7%,in case the outburst happen at that time, the critical indicator value is 42.98 mJ/g and 103.8 mJ/g. The paper set up the ideal outburst prediction model when uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft. The paper analyzes influencing factor of outburst under ideal model and thinks it can be used in outburst prediction when uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft.
To the indicator mentioned, the author exposits the determination method of the expansion energy in initial released gas in detail, and finds out that the determination process is mainly affected by the gas pressure and crash situation of the coalbody, and the expansion energy in initial released gas is in direct ratio with the gas pressure. to sum up, the main outburst prediction indicator which is applyed practically is the measured gas pressure on the spot.
the author find out that the human factor is the key point to realize the rapid and accurate measurement of the gas pressure. According to the numerical computation and experiments on the spot, the author get the expand law of spherical direction and radial direction flow field over time, and the method of radial direction flow is obviously better than the method of radial direction flow when using the rapid gas pressure measurements. The balance time of the former is no more than 10% of the latter, and with the advance of gas drainage time, the advantage becomes more and more obvious. According to the results of the numerical computation and experiments, when the method of radial direction flow is adopted, no matter what is the value of gas permeability coefficient, the maximum influence of emptying time to the balance time appears in 30 min, and the maximum value could be from 52% to 56%. To be concluded, using the method of radial direction flow to measure the gas press and accomplishing the drill sealing process in 30 min so as to rapid predict the gas outburst hazard is feasible.
According to the detailed study on the rapid gas pressure measurement under complicate geology condition, borehole water sealing measurement has been put forward. Coalmine and lab experiment prove that gas pressure under gas and water co-exist can be determined by platform on the gas curve while water flux is small.
Applying the rapid gas pressure measurement technology under complicated geological conditions and energy of initial releasing indicator to predict outburst risk of uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft more than 10 times. All the results are in accordance with the real situations, the accuracy of the new prediction method reaches 100%. The new prediction indicator avoid the disadvantages of predicted indicators recommended in Coal and gas outburst prevention and control rules. The theory gives the minim emission rate in order to make coal seam lose outburst risk with emission drill, decrease the emission time of drainage drill and achieve the rapidly safe tunneling process when uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft.
煤与瓦斯突出的球壳失稳机理认为初始释放瓦斯膨胀能是煤体发生突出的唯一能源,可以作为石门及井筒揭煤突出危险性预测的指标。蒋承林教授根据46次突出模拟实验数据,采用Fisher判别分析法进行分析处理,证明采用初始释放瓦斯膨胀能和软煤厚度可以准确预测理想石门揭煤条件下的突出危险性,准确率可达到100%。如果单独仅采用初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标,准确率也能达到90.9%～96.7%,这时发生弱突出及突出的临界指标为42.98 mJ/g和103.8 mJ/g。以此建立了理想石门揭煤突出预测模型,分析了理想石门揭煤条件下突出的影响因素,认为可以将理想石门揭煤模型应用于石门及井筒揭煤突出危险性快速预测。
针对以上指标,详细阐述了初始释放瓦斯膨胀能实验测定方法,发现其测定主要受煤体破碎程度和瓦斯压力的影响,和瓦斯压力存在正比关系和破碎程度存在指数关系,但由于预测煤样均应是破碎程度最大的原始煤样,所以不再讨论其和初始释放瓦斯膨胀能的关系将突出危险预测的主要工作归结为现场瓦斯压力的测定。对瓦斯压力测定的影响因素进行了深入分析,发现人为因素是能否实现瓦斯压力快速准确测定的关键,通过数值解算及现场实验,找出了球向和径向流场卸压半径随时间扩展的规律,发现球向流量法在实现快速测定方面要明显优于径向流场法,平衡时间前者只有后者的10%左右,且排放时间越长,优势越明显。通过数值解算及实验发现,采用球向流量法时,无论透气性系数的大小,排空时间均在前30min内对平衡时间影响最大,达到52%~86%。采用球向流量法并在30min内完成封孔可以实现快速预测。
对复杂地质条件下瓦斯压力的快速测定进行了深入探讨,提出了封堵钻孔水系的对策及措施,利用现场实际和实验室实验,证明了可以在水系小流量渗流时通过瓦斯压力曲线中压力平衡平台的方法分离出水气共存条件下煤层的瓦斯压力。
根据复杂地质条件下瓦斯压力快速测定技术及初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标,准确为现场预测了十余处石门及井筒,预测的结论与现场的实际突出情况完全吻合,准确率达到100%,弥补了《防突细则》中预测指标的漏洞。并给出了打钻排放后煤层失去突出危险性的最低排放率,为现场进行安全揭煤提供了依据,同时减少了抽放钻孔排放时间,实现了石门及井筒揭煤过程的安全快速掘进。
The paper analyzes several present coal outburst hazard prediction methods when uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft, and finds some problems existing in the normal predict methods including single indicator prediction and multi-indicator prediction, such as poor generality and relativity, low accuracy and so on. What is more severe are the underlying problems, resource wasting and even the accidents. In addition, the long time consumed for prediction methods and the influence from the complicate geology also affect the prediction. To solve these problems, based on the mechanism of loss of spherical shell stability, the author analyzes the influence factors to the uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft and sets up the prediction model, then gets the prediction indicators for the outburst hazard prediction.
loss of spherical shell stability think that the expansion energy in initial released gas is the single energy resource to the coal outburst, so that it could be adopted as the prediction indicator. Professor Jiangchenglin employ the Fisher distinguish analysis method to analyze the results of 46 sets of simulation data, and prove that adopting the expansion energy in initial released gas and the thick of soft coal seam as the outburst prediction indicators to predict the outburst risk, the accuracy rate can be 100%; if the expansion energy in initial released gas adopted as the only indicator, the accuracy rate of prediction can from 90.9% to 96.7%,in case the outburst happen at that time, the critical indicator value is 42.98 mJ/g and 103.8 mJ/g. The paper set up the ideal outburst prediction model when uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft. The paper analyzes influencing factor of outburst under ideal model and thinks it can be used in outburst prediction when uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft.
To the indicator mentioned, the author exposits the determination method of the expansion energy in initial released gas in detail, and finds out that the determination process is mainly affected by the gas pressure and crash situation of the coalbody, and the expansion energy in initial released gas is in direct ratio with the gas pressure. to sum up, the main outburst prediction indicator which is applyed practically is the measured gas pressure on the spot.
the author find out that the human factor is the key point to realize the rapid and accurate measurement of the gas pressure. According to the numerical computation and experiments on the spot, the author get the expand law of spherical direction and radial direction flow field over time, and the method of radial direction flow is obviously better than the method of radial direction flow when using the rapid gas pressure measurements. The balance time of the former is no more than 10% of the latter, and with the advance of gas drainage time, the advantage becomes more and more obvious. According to the results of the numerical computation and experiments, when the method of radial direction flow is adopted, no matter what is the value of gas permeability coefficient, the maximum influence of emptying time to the balance time appears in 30 min, and the maximum value could be from 52% to 56%. To be concluded, using the method of radial direction flow to measure the gas press and accomplishing the drill sealing process in 30 min so as to rapid predict the gas outburst hazard is feasible.
According to the detailed study on the rapid gas pressure measurement under complicate geology condition, borehole water sealing measurement has been put forward. Coalmine and lab experiment prove that gas pressure under gas and water co-exist can be determined by platform on the gas curve while water flux is small.
Applying the rapid gas pressure measurement technology under complicated geological conditions and energy of initial releasing indicator to predict outburst risk of uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft more than 10 times. All the results are in accordance with the real situations, the accuracy of the new prediction method reaches 100%. The new prediction indicator avoid the disadvantages of predicted indicators recommended in Coal and gas outburst prevention and control rules. The theory gives the minim emission rate in order to make coal seam lose outburst risk with emission drill, decrease the emission time of drainage drill and achieve the rapidly safe tunneling process when uncovering coal in crosscut and shaft.
引文
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