面向延寿工程的老龄平台寿命预测与管理研究
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摘要
我国已有相当数量的平台进入老龄服役期,为保证其后继服役期内的安全性,需要对老龄平台结构进行可靠性分析,并预测其剩余寿命。本学位论文主要围绕国家自然科学基金项目(50679083)“面向老龄平台延寿工程的寿命预测与管理理论及方法研究”和国家863计划海洋技术领域2006年度专项课题(2006AA09Z355)“近海老龄平台延寿技术研究”的部分内容展开,对损伤构件退化规律试验研究、含裂纹平台结构精细评估、老龄平台剩余寿命预测方法、平台多失效模式可靠性计算与老龄平台可靠性更新等理论及方法进行系统的研究,进而为现役老龄平台的继续使用、检测维修和退役等决策提供理论依据。主要研究进展总结如下:
1、损伤构件退化规律的红外热像试验研究
将红外热像技术作为一种无损检测手段,对室内裂纹构件的损伤过程进行可视化监测。以Q235钢材料制成的3种不同类型的含裂纹试件为研究对象,采用红外热像仪实时监测拉伸试验中试件表面的温度场。对试验中得到的温度数据进行分析,根据热力学理论讨论温度变化与构件力学行为之间的联系,从而揭示构件的损伤规律。进一步采用有限元软件ANSYS模拟拉伸试验过程,获得复合型裂纹的扩展路径以及扩展过程中的裂尖温度场变化。同时,进行高强度钢试件的疲劳试验,并采用热像仪进行监测。根据记录的温度数据区分疲劳过程的不同阶段,定性描述疲劳损伤机理。在此基础上,提供一种基于能量耗散的疲劳寿命预测思路,通过温度变化预测构件疲劳寿命。
2、老龄平台结构强度评定与疲劳寿命
以ANSYS软件作为有限元分析工具,建立含裂纹管节点模型和平台整体模型,通过有限元静力分析,研究裂纹损伤对平台整体响应的影响。构造T型管节点焊缝处的3维表面裂纹模型,在此基础上,采用有限元方法的子模型技术,获得管节点局部的详细应力分布;根据断裂力学理论,对裂纹尖端局部应力场进行分析,计算沿表面裂纹前缘各点的应力强度因子(SIFs),分析裂纹尺寸和腐蚀导致管壁减薄等因素对SIFs的影响,为含裂纹平台结构安全评估提供一种精细分析方法。
3、老龄平台多失效模式可靠性分析与寿命预测
考虑老龄平台结构构件可能存在的多种失效模式,包括静强度失效、疲劳失效和腐蚀失效,分别建立每种失效模式的可靠性模型,并给出相应的可靠度计算方法。通过相关系数研究任意两种失效模式之间的相互影响,采用JC方法计算了静强度-疲劳耦合、静强度-腐蚀耦合和疲劳-腐蚀耦合这3种情况下的平台构件可靠度。进而提出两种计算3种退化失效模式全耦合作用下可靠度的方法:分别是根据O. Detlevsen窄界限理论计算可靠度指标上下限,以及将疲劳裂纹扩展和腐蚀退化引起的抗力衰减引入静强度退化失效模型中,通过总的抗力衰减作用,得到三种失效模式共同作用下的耦合失效概率。在此基础上,对老龄平台整体系统的可靠性进行评价,并发展更为简单实用的计算方法和步骤,用以分析老龄平台系统的时变动态可靠性。最后,综合考虑存在于环境载荷、构件形状、材料特性、可靠度计算模型中的不确定性因素,以动态可靠性理论为基础,研究老龄平台的剩余寿命预测技术。
4、老龄平台可靠性更新研究
已有海洋平台结构是一个客观存在的实体,与待建平台结构有很大的不同。服役结构的可靠性分析,需要建立在现有信息的基础上,进而对未来服役期内结构可靠性进行推断和评估。引入现役老龄平台可靠性分析的方法。为克服传统方法对环境载荷的描述仅考虑了载荷的随机性,而没有考虑荷载的时变特性这一缺点,提出一种新的评估载荷预测方法;根据极值荷载的预测样本,估计剩余服役期荷载分布参数,由此确定平台服役后期的评估载荷。在此基础上,充分考虑老龄海洋平台在已经服役阶段可能获得的两种历史信息,分别是平台受到的各种载荷历史信息和平台的检修结果记录,研究这些历史信息对平台结构未来服役可靠性的更新效果。首先考虑当前时刻含裂纹构件的裂纹测量尺寸,进而计算出抗力的剩余强度,然后结合Bayesian方法,分析后继服役期内的抗力变化和可靠性更新;其次,若平台已服役阶段有检测、维修记录,则根据检测结果研究未来时刻平台服役可靠性的变化;再次,将已服役期内承受的年极值波浪载荷视作验证载荷,同时考虑老龄平台构件的抗力衰减,根据动态时变可靠度理论,分析后继服役期内老龄平台构件的动态可靠性更新。
5、老龄平台延寿周期寿命管理
考虑经济因素的影响,在保证平台结构工作寿命期内的可靠指标大于最低目标可靠指标的前提下,分别基于最优成本和最优费用-效益比两个优化目标,建立相应的老龄平台延寿阶段的检修规划模型。其中前者使得平台服役老龄期(或延寿期)内总的期望费用最小;而后者反映检测及维修行为对提高平台生产效益的效果,使得费用-效益比最小。以受疲劳裂纹扩展损伤的平台构件为例,分别根据上述两种优化模型对检测及维修策略进行评估,并对计算结果进行敏感性分析。在此基础上,提出老龄平台的最优经济寿命计算方法,从经济学的边际原理进行考虑,通过计算平台结构的边际收入等于边际支出时所对应的服役时间,来确定平台的经济寿命。
Considering many potential hazards in offshore platforms which have serviced for a long term, reliability analysis and remaining life prediction for aged platforms should be performed in order to guarantee their safety in succeed service. The dissertation focuses on life prediction approach for ageing offshore platforms, which is a part of the National Natural Science Foundation Program (50679083) of“Research on Life Prediction Methods and Management Theory of Aged Offshore Platforms for Life Extension”and the“863”High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No.2006AA09Z355) of“Research on Life Extension Technology for Aged Offshore Platforms”. The theory and methods of life prediction and reliability for ageing offshore platforms are studied systematically, and then the theoretical basis for decision-making of whether continue to service, inspection, maintenance, or retirement is provided. The main works are summarized as follows:
1. Research on infrared (IR) thermographic Experiment for Deterioration Mechanism of Damaged Specimens
The IR thermography technique, as a nondestructive evaluation technique, is applied to visual monitor the damaged process of cracked specimens. The temperature profiles of three types of specimens made by Q235 steel are observed during tensile fracture tests. On the basis of thermomechanics, the relationship between the temperature and mechanical behavior is discussed, and the damage mechanism of the cracked specimen is revealed. The fracture process is modeled by performing finite element analysis using ANSYS software, and the propagation path of compound crack as well as the crack tip temperature field is simulated.
Furthermore, the fatigue tests of high strength steel specimens are carried out under IR thermographic detection. The different phase during fatigue process is distinguished by temperature profile, and the fatigue damage mechanism is described qualitatively. At last, a fatigue life prediction method is proposed, based on the energy dissipation theory, which provides an idea of predicting fatigue life through temperature evolution.
2. Strength Assessment and Fatigue Life Prediction for Ageing Offshore Platforms
The tubular joint with crack and the platform structure is modeled using ANSYS software, and the influence of crack damage on the global structure response is investigated through FE analysis. The 3-D surface crack model on tubular T- joint is created, and the detailed local stress distribution of tubular joints is determined by applying finite element submodelling method and fracture mechanics theory. The stress intensity factors along surface crack fronts are obtained and the effects of crack size and pipe corrosion on the SIFs are analyzed. A dedicated analysis approach for safety assessment of cracked offshore platforms is provided.
Furthermore, the method of predicting fatigue crack propagating life under random wave loads is studied. Based on P-M spectrum and response transfer function of structural member, the statistical parameter for stochastic stress is calculated, and then the crack propagating life is obtained by applying Paris equation.
3. Reliability Analysis and Remaining Life Prediction of Ageing Platforms with Multi-Failure Modes
Considering possible multi failure modes of ageing platform members, including static strength failure, fatigue failure and corrosion failure. Each reliability model is established and the corresponding computing method is presented. The interaction between any two failure modes (i.e. static strength-fatigue coupled failure, static strength-corrosion coupled failure and fatigue-corrosion coupled failure) is analyzed through correlation factor. Then, two different methods are proposed to calculate the reliability of the component under 3 failure modes coupling: one of which is the O. Detlevsen’s Narrow Bounds theory; and the other is introducing the overall resistance deterioration including fatigue crack and corrosion to static strength failure model. Furthermore, a more simple, practical computing method is developed for assessing the system reliability of ageing offshore platform in succeed service life. Finally, considering the uncertainty factors among loads, structural member configuration, material properties, and reliability computing models, the remaining life prediction technique based on reliability theory is investigated.
4. Reliability Updating for Ageing Offshore Platforms
Existing offshore platform is an objective entity, which is much different from to-be-built platform structure. It requires using now available information to infer the behavior of structure in future service period, when analyzing the reliability of in-service structure. The reliability analysis method for existing ageing platform is introduced. In order to overcome the shortcoming of traditional environmental load description, a new assessment load prediction method is proposed, which may consider not only the stochasticity but also the time-varying of loads. Furthermore, on the basis of two types of historical information including experienced loads and inspection records, the reliability updating in future is analyzed. First, current measured crack size is used to obtain the resistance of the component, and then the reliability is updated with the Bayesian method; then, the dynamic reliability of offshore platforms in the subsequent service period is updated, based on dynamic time-dependent reliability theory, regarding the annual maximum wave loads in prior service time as proof loads, and considering the degradation of resistance for aging offshore platform members; finally, the reliability updating in future is analyzed according to inspection results.
5. Extended Life Cycle Management for Ageing Offshore Platforms
Considering the economical factor, the inspection and maintenance planning model in life extension period for aged offshore platforms is established based on the optimum cost and optimum cost-benefit ratio, respectively. Both the methods are required to ensure that the reliability in service life is larger than the minimum target reliability index. Among them, the former model makes the total expected cost of the ageing service period and life extension period minimum, while the latter makes the cost- benefit ratio minimum. A damaged component of offshore platform subjected to fatigue crack is set as an example to illustrate the proposed two models. Furthermore, some sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the effects of basic parameters on the models. Finally, the optimum economic life prediction method is present for aging offshore platforms.
1、损伤构件退化规律的红外热像试验研究
将红外热像技术作为一种无损检测手段,对室内裂纹构件的损伤过程进行可视化监测。以Q235钢材料制成的3种不同类型的含裂纹试件为研究对象,采用红外热像仪实时监测拉伸试验中试件表面的温度场。对试验中得到的温度数据进行分析,根据热力学理论讨论温度变化与构件力学行为之间的联系,从而揭示构件的损伤规律。进一步采用有限元软件ANSYS模拟拉伸试验过程,获得复合型裂纹的扩展路径以及扩展过程中的裂尖温度场变化。同时,进行高强度钢试件的疲劳试验,并采用热像仪进行监测。根据记录的温度数据区分疲劳过程的不同阶段,定性描述疲劳损伤机理。在此基础上,提供一种基于能量耗散的疲劳寿命预测思路,通过温度变化预测构件疲劳寿命。
2、老龄平台结构强度评定与疲劳寿命
以ANSYS软件作为有限元分析工具,建立含裂纹管节点模型和平台整体模型,通过有限元静力分析,研究裂纹损伤对平台整体响应的影响。构造T型管节点焊缝处的3维表面裂纹模型,在此基础上,采用有限元方法的子模型技术,获得管节点局部的详细应力分布;根据断裂力学理论,对裂纹尖端局部应力场进行分析,计算沿表面裂纹前缘各点的应力强度因子(SIFs),分析裂纹尺寸和腐蚀导致管壁减薄等因素对SIFs的影响,为含裂纹平台结构安全评估提供一种精细分析方法。
3、老龄平台多失效模式可靠性分析与寿命预测
考虑老龄平台结构构件可能存在的多种失效模式,包括静强度失效、疲劳失效和腐蚀失效,分别建立每种失效模式的可靠性模型,并给出相应的可靠度计算方法。通过相关系数研究任意两种失效模式之间的相互影响,采用JC方法计算了静强度-疲劳耦合、静强度-腐蚀耦合和疲劳-腐蚀耦合这3种情况下的平台构件可靠度。进而提出两种计算3种退化失效模式全耦合作用下可靠度的方法:分别是根据O. Detlevsen窄界限理论计算可靠度指标上下限,以及将疲劳裂纹扩展和腐蚀退化引起的抗力衰减引入静强度退化失效模型中,通过总的抗力衰减作用,得到三种失效模式共同作用下的耦合失效概率。在此基础上,对老龄平台整体系统的可靠性进行评价,并发展更为简单实用的计算方法和步骤,用以分析老龄平台系统的时变动态可靠性。最后,综合考虑存在于环境载荷、构件形状、材料特性、可靠度计算模型中的不确定性因素,以动态可靠性理论为基础,研究老龄平台的剩余寿命预测技术。
4、老龄平台可靠性更新研究
已有海洋平台结构是一个客观存在的实体,与待建平台结构有很大的不同。服役结构的可靠性分析,需要建立在现有信息的基础上,进而对未来服役期内结构可靠性进行推断和评估。引入现役老龄平台可靠性分析的方法。为克服传统方法对环境载荷的描述仅考虑了载荷的随机性,而没有考虑荷载的时变特性这一缺点,提出一种新的评估载荷预测方法;根据极值荷载的预测样本,估计剩余服役期荷载分布参数,由此确定平台服役后期的评估载荷。在此基础上,充分考虑老龄海洋平台在已经服役阶段可能获得的两种历史信息,分别是平台受到的各种载荷历史信息和平台的检修结果记录,研究这些历史信息对平台结构未来服役可靠性的更新效果。首先考虑当前时刻含裂纹构件的裂纹测量尺寸,进而计算出抗力的剩余强度,然后结合Bayesian方法,分析后继服役期内的抗力变化和可靠性更新;其次,若平台已服役阶段有检测、维修记录,则根据检测结果研究未来时刻平台服役可靠性的变化;再次,将已服役期内承受的年极值波浪载荷视作验证载荷,同时考虑老龄平台构件的抗力衰减,根据动态时变可靠度理论,分析后继服役期内老龄平台构件的动态可靠性更新。
5、老龄平台延寿周期寿命管理
考虑经济因素的影响,在保证平台结构工作寿命期内的可靠指标大于最低目标可靠指标的前提下,分别基于最优成本和最优费用-效益比两个优化目标,建立相应的老龄平台延寿阶段的检修规划模型。其中前者使得平台服役老龄期(或延寿期)内总的期望费用最小;而后者反映检测及维修行为对提高平台生产效益的效果,使得费用-效益比最小。以受疲劳裂纹扩展损伤的平台构件为例,分别根据上述两种优化模型对检测及维修策略进行评估,并对计算结果进行敏感性分析。在此基础上,提出老龄平台的最优经济寿命计算方法,从经济学的边际原理进行考虑,通过计算平台结构的边际收入等于边际支出时所对应的服役时间,来确定平台的经济寿命。
Considering many potential hazards in offshore platforms which have serviced for a long term, reliability analysis and remaining life prediction for aged platforms should be performed in order to guarantee their safety in succeed service. The dissertation focuses on life prediction approach for ageing offshore platforms, which is a part of the National Natural Science Foundation Program (50679083) of“Research on Life Prediction Methods and Management Theory of Aged Offshore Platforms for Life Extension”and the“863”High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No.2006AA09Z355) of“Research on Life Extension Technology for Aged Offshore Platforms”. The theory and methods of life prediction and reliability for ageing offshore platforms are studied systematically, and then the theoretical basis for decision-making of whether continue to service, inspection, maintenance, or retirement is provided. The main works are summarized as follows:
1. Research on infrared (IR) thermographic Experiment for Deterioration Mechanism of Damaged Specimens
The IR thermography technique, as a nondestructive evaluation technique, is applied to visual monitor the damaged process of cracked specimens. The temperature profiles of three types of specimens made by Q235 steel are observed during tensile fracture tests. On the basis of thermomechanics, the relationship between the temperature and mechanical behavior is discussed, and the damage mechanism of the cracked specimen is revealed. The fracture process is modeled by performing finite element analysis using ANSYS software, and the propagation path of compound crack as well as the crack tip temperature field is simulated.
Furthermore, the fatigue tests of high strength steel specimens are carried out under IR thermographic detection. The different phase during fatigue process is distinguished by temperature profile, and the fatigue damage mechanism is described qualitatively. At last, a fatigue life prediction method is proposed, based on the energy dissipation theory, which provides an idea of predicting fatigue life through temperature evolution.
2. Strength Assessment and Fatigue Life Prediction for Ageing Offshore Platforms
The tubular joint with crack and the platform structure is modeled using ANSYS software, and the influence of crack damage on the global structure response is investigated through FE analysis. The 3-D surface crack model on tubular T- joint is created, and the detailed local stress distribution of tubular joints is determined by applying finite element submodelling method and fracture mechanics theory. The stress intensity factors along surface crack fronts are obtained and the effects of crack size and pipe corrosion on the SIFs are analyzed. A dedicated analysis approach for safety assessment of cracked offshore platforms is provided.
Furthermore, the method of predicting fatigue crack propagating life under random wave loads is studied. Based on P-M spectrum and response transfer function of structural member, the statistical parameter for stochastic stress is calculated, and then the crack propagating life is obtained by applying Paris equation.
3. Reliability Analysis and Remaining Life Prediction of Ageing Platforms with Multi-Failure Modes
Considering possible multi failure modes of ageing platform members, including static strength failure, fatigue failure and corrosion failure. Each reliability model is established and the corresponding computing method is presented. The interaction between any two failure modes (i.e. static strength-fatigue coupled failure, static strength-corrosion coupled failure and fatigue-corrosion coupled failure) is analyzed through correlation factor. Then, two different methods are proposed to calculate the reliability of the component under 3 failure modes coupling: one of which is the O. Detlevsen’s Narrow Bounds theory; and the other is introducing the overall resistance deterioration including fatigue crack and corrosion to static strength failure model. Furthermore, a more simple, practical computing method is developed for assessing the system reliability of ageing offshore platform in succeed service life. Finally, considering the uncertainty factors among loads, structural member configuration, material properties, and reliability computing models, the remaining life prediction technique based on reliability theory is investigated.
4. Reliability Updating for Ageing Offshore Platforms
Existing offshore platform is an objective entity, which is much different from to-be-built platform structure. It requires using now available information to infer the behavior of structure in future service period, when analyzing the reliability of in-service structure. The reliability analysis method for existing ageing platform is introduced. In order to overcome the shortcoming of traditional environmental load description, a new assessment load prediction method is proposed, which may consider not only the stochasticity but also the time-varying of loads. Furthermore, on the basis of two types of historical information including experienced loads and inspection records, the reliability updating in future is analyzed. First, current measured crack size is used to obtain the resistance of the component, and then the reliability is updated with the Bayesian method; then, the dynamic reliability of offshore platforms in the subsequent service period is updated, based on dynamic time-dependent reliability theory, regarding the annual maximum wave loads in prior service time as proof loads, and considering the degradation of resistance for aging offshore platform members; finally, the reliability updating in future is analyzed according to inspection results.
5. Extended Life Cycle Management for Ageing Offshore Platforms
Considering the economical factor, the inspection and maintenance planning model in life extension period for aged offshore platforms is established based on the optimum cost and optimum cost-benefit ratio, respectively. Both the methods are required to ensure that the reliability in service life is larger than the minimum target reliability index. Among them, the former model makes the total expected cost of the ageing service period and life extension period minimum, while the latter makes the cost- benefit ratio minimum. A damaged component of offshore platform subjected to fatigue crack is set as an example to illustrate the proposed two models. Furthermore, some sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the effects of basic parameters on the models. Finally, the optimum economic life prediction method is present for aging offshore platforms.
引文
[1]陈国明,刘健.近海石油老龄平台延寿技术研究[A].近海油气勘探开发高技术发展研讨会文集[C].北京, 2005: 221-225
[2]欧进萍,段忠东,肖仪清.海洋平台结构安全评定——理论、方法与应用[M].北京:科学出版社, 2003
[3] Gerhard Ersdal. Assessment of existing offshore structures for life extension [D]. University of Stavanger, NORWAY, 2005
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