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基于商圈发展动力机制的商业地产选址模式研究
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摘要
1、基于商圈动力系数构建了商圈选择的计算方法。本文认为商圈的未来发展潜力主要取决于该商圈背后的动力机制。在借鉴区域发展“五力”理论的基础上,本文提出了商圈发展的“六力”理论,即经济力、政策力、环境力、历史人文力、消费力、集聚力。以北京的西单商圈为例,本文具体分析了“六力”中各力的组成要素,对“六力”进行了量化研究,提出了标志商圈投资价值大小的系数,即“商圈动力系数”,并构建了商圈选择的计算方法。
     2、基于价值线理论构建了地段选择的计算方法。根据地价差别理论,本文提出了地段的“三级价值线”的概念,总结出了地段选址的“成功三要素”,即所选地段要靠近商圈中心、处在商圈的发展方向上、与商圈内的竞争对手进行商业错位。为了对任意地段进行投资价值比较,本文构建了地段选择的计算公式,认为地段的投资价值是由商圈动力系数和公交交通时间来共同决定。
     3、基于“6S”层次分析法和目标规划法提出了地点确定的计算方法。本文提出了地点选址的“6S”价值要素,即一是商业地产硬件的本身(Self),二是商业地产的稀缺性(Singleness),三是周边消费的环境(Surrounding),四是政策的支持(Support),五是时机和开发商的选择(Selection),六是有效运营的解决方案(Solution)。本文制定了利润、交通、竞争三方面的目标约束条件。在此基础上,本文构建了由层次分析法和目标规划法组成的集成模型来进行地点的确定。
     4、以北京市典型商圈为对象进行了实证研究。本文选取北京不同商圈、不同地段内的不同地点为实证研究对象,利用商圈动力系数公式计算出了对不同商圈的选址排序,利用地段选址公式计算出了对不同地段的选址排序,利用基于“6S”层次分析法和目标规划法的集成模型计算出了对不同地点的选址排序。实证研究表明,利用本文所提出的系列方法可以使商业地产选址的排序结果共得到了四次累积式的优化。
     总之,本文所提出的商圈选择、地段选择和地点确定的系列方法,可以定性定量地完成从宏观选址到微观选址的实际操作,有利于减少商业地产的选址风险,提高商业地产的成功概率。
There are three keys to the success of the commercial real estate. The first is site selection, the second is site selection, and the third is site seletion. For sitting selection in the right way, the article makes out the following route: firstly, you should study the commercial circles; then you should study the places of a commercial circle; finally you should study the spot of a place.
     Through study of the commercial circle, this article points out that the future development of the commercial circle depends mainly on the motive mechanism behind it. With the reference of the "Five-force Model" of regional development, this article introduces a "Six-force Model" for commercial circle development: Economy Force, Policy Force, Environment Force, History and Humanities Force, Consumption Force, Accumulation Force, which is abbreviated as "Six Forces" of the motive mechanism for the commercial circle formation. Taking Beijing Xidan Commercial Circle as an example, the author specifically analyses the elements of the "six forces".
     In order to explain the 'six forces' in depth, the author carries out quantitative research on the 'six-force model' and advances a commercial real estate site selection formula based on the motive mechanism of the commercial circle, that is: the attraction of the commercial real estate site selection is decided jointly by commercial circle motive coefficient and the road transit time between main commercial network within each district. With calculated values of the above-mentioned three deciding factors, the attraction of the commercial real estate, that is the coming probability of residents from each commercial circle, can be computed accordingly.
     Based on the three major commercial circles Xidan, Zhongguancun and CBD in Beijing, the author carries out concrete example analysis, makes quantitative calculation regarding the attraction coefficient of these three commercial circles, and finally gets the attractive value of them. The result deducted from the new formula is widely distant from the result deducted from the traditional one. The author explains the reason that brings about such differences, and through statistical data, proves that the result calculated by the new formula tends to be more scientific and rational. The new formula has also corrected the calculation error of the old one.
     In the end, the author sums up the six value factors for site selection, and puts forward the new method and formula to selecte the site based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Goal Programming. After resolving the issue regarding commercial real estate site selection, the article carries out qualitative analysis in accordance with how to conducting the site selection within an established commercial circle and puts forwards the author's conclusion.
     In short, this paper gives quantitative analysis on how to conducting the commercial circle selection. After defining the commercial circle, the paper carries out qualitative analysis on how to select locality, from macro-site selection to micro-operation, which having strong practical guiding significance for the actual site selection of China's commercial real estate.
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