全球金融中心演进规律的实证研究
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摘要
伦敦和纽约是当今全球最为领先的两个全球金融中心,代表了国际金融中心演进的最高阶段,考察总结它们演进过程中的经验规律将会对我国的国际金融中心建设战略有所裨益。
现有对国际金融中心现象的研究多是从理论角度分析金融机构和金融活动在某一城市集聚的原因,实证方面的研究不多,且研究方法较为简单。本文在借鉴众多国内外学者计量研究的基础上,通过设立一套衡量国际金融中心演进过程的发展水平和影响因素指标体系,首先考察了伦敦和纽约两个全球金融中心1980至2006年间金融业各市场的发展状况和英美两国宏观环境的变化。其次,笔者用协整分析方法对两个全球金融中心近三十年间的演进过程进行了实证检验。检验结果显示,国际金融中心的演进主要受宏观经济增长、国际贸易规模、国际资本流动规模、劳动生产率、资金收益率和国家对经济的管制程度等有关,这其中大多数的影响因素具有明确的影响方向。
在本论文的第五章,笔者从资本对内对外流动的角度,以伦敦和纽约从18世纪末以来的演进过程为例,总结出了一个国际金融中心演进的三阶段理论,即实体型金融中心一般会从“内资内用型”的国内中心阶段首先演进到“内资外用型”的国际中心阶段,到最高级阶段后则分化为以伦敦为代表的“外资外用型”模式和以纽约为代表的“外资内用型”模式。利用该理论,笔者对比了伦敦和纽约两大全球金融中心在金融全球化过程中所表现出的不同特点。在该章的后两节,笔者利用面板分析中的固定效应模型,以伦敦、纽约、东京三个国际金融中心1980年至2006年间金融业发展数据和经济制度条件数据等为样本,进行了全球金融中心发展水平与影响因素之间,以及国家福利水平与金融中心演进过程之间的实证检验。前一个检验表明,诸如经济增长、劳动成本变化、税收水平、利率水平、储蓄水平等国内经济状况和国际贸易规模、国际资本流动规模、金融市场开放程度、对外管制程度等国际经济因素都会对国际金融中心的演进产生效果较为显著、方向大致明确的影响。后一个检验表明,国际金融中心的演进,尤其是金融中心银行业的发展会对东道国的人均收入、人均消费和财政收入产生有利的效应,从而提高东道国的福利水平,但金融中心演进对降低东道国的失业率没有作用。
London and New York have so far come into the highest stage of the evolution of international financial center(IFC) with the Global Financial Centers (GFC) established in these two first-class IFCs. We can draw some implications for China's IFC building from examining the evolution of the two GFCs.
Previously, the majority of the IFC studies focused on the theoretical analysis of IFC evolution from the perspective of financial institution and financial activities' agglomeration. While there are some empirical reports, these quantitative researches are too simple to reveal the law of evolution. In this paper, Firstly, taking some quantitative researches as our reference, I establish a variable system of developmental level indices and determinants indices. Secondly, based on the economic and financial data from 1980 to 2006 of New York, London and their home country, I describe the development and determinants of the two GFCs' financial markets. Lastly, in section 4 of chapter 3 and chapter 4, I examine the evolution process of two GFCs in the last three decades through the cointegration analysis model. The results indicate some certain determinants tend to affect the GFC evolution, such as economic growth, scale of international trade, labor productivity, capital yield, government regulation and so on.
In chapter 5, from the perspective of capital import and export, I conclude a three-phase theory about IFC evolution, which is exemplified by the evolution process of London and New York since the 18th century. Specifically, the IFC evolution can be divided into three stages, a financial center must become a domestic financial center which is characterized by domestic funds utilized by domestic industries in the early stage, and then evolve into the next stage, which is character- ized by the export of domestic capital and financial service. In the highest stage, some IFCs turn into the GFC, such as London GFC, which is characterized by foreign capital utilized by international institution, and New York GFC, which is characterized by foreign capital utilized by domestic economy.
In the last two sections of chapter 5, on the basis of financial data and marcoeconomic data from 1980 to 2006 of New York, London and Tokyo, I make multiple panel data analyses through Fixed-Effect Model. The one aims to seek the relevance between GFC developmental level and its determinants, the other aims to seek the relevance between developmental level and national welfare of host country. The former examination indicates some certain determinants tend to affect the IFC evolution, which include domestic economic condition, such as economic growth, labor cost, tax system, interest rate, saving rate, government regulation, and international economic condition, such as international trade volume, international capital volume, opening level of financial market, international regulation level and so on. The latter examination indicates, the IFC evolution, especially the development in banking of IFC, is beneficial to domestic inhabitant's income level, consumption level and state revenue, and thus to promote national welfare of host country. However, the IFC evolution is unhelpful to reduce domestic unemployment.
现有对国际金融中心现象的研究多是从理论角度分析金融机构和金融活动在某一城市集聚的原因,实证方面的研究不多,且研究方法较为简单。本文在借鉴众多国内外学者计量研究的基础上,通过设立一套衡量国际金融中心演进过程的发展水平和影响因素指标体系,首先考察了伦敦和纽约两个全球金融中心1980至2006年间金融业各市场的发展状况和英美两国宏观环境的变化。其次,笔者用协整分析方法对两个全球金融中心近三十年间的演进过程进行了实证检验。检验结果显示,国际金融中心的演进主要受宏观经济增长、国际贸易规模、国际资本流动规模、劳动生产率、资金收益率和国家对经济的管制程度等有关,这其中大多数的影响因素具有明确的影响方向。
在本论文的第五章,笔者从资本对内对外流动的角度,以伦敦和纽约从18世纪末以来的演进过程为例,总结出了一个国际金融中心演进的三阶段理论,即实体型金融中心一般会从“内资内用型”的国内中心阶段首先演进到“内资外用型”的国际中心阶段,到最高级阶段后则分化为以伦敦为代表的“外资外用型”模式和以纽约为代表的“外资内用型”模式。利用该理论,笔者对比了伦敦和纽约两大全球金融中心在金融全球化过程中所表现出的不同特点。在该章的后两节,笔者利用面板分析中的固定效应模型,以伦敦、纽约、东京三个国际金融中心1980年至2006年间金融业发展数据和经济制度条件数据等为样本,进行了全球金融中心发展水平与影响因素之间,以及国家福利水平与金融中心演进过程之间的实证检验。前一个检验表明,诸如经济增长、劳动成本变化、税收水平、利率水平、储蓄水平等国内经济状况和国际贸易规模、国际资本流动规模、金融市场开放程度、对外管制程度等国际经济因素都会对国际金融中心的演进产生效果较为显著、方向大致明确的影响。后一个检验表明,国际金融中心的演进,尤其是金融中心银行业的发展会对东道国的人均收入、人均消费和财政收入产生有利的效应,从而提高东道国的福利水平,但金融中心演进对降低东道国的失业率没有作用。
London and New York have so far come into the highest stage of the evolution of international financial center(IFC) with the Global Financial Centers (GFC) established in these two first-class IFCs. We can draw some implications for China's IFC building from examining the evolution of the two GFCs.
Previously, the majority of the IFC studies focused on the theoretical analysis of IFC evolution from the perspective of financial institution and financial activities' agglomeration. While there are some empirical reports, these quantitative researches are too simple to reveal the law of evolution. In this paper, Firstly, taking some quantitative researches as our reference, I establish a variable system of developmental level indices and determinants indices. Secondly, based on the economic and financial data from 1980 to 2006 of New York, London and their home country, I describe the development and determinants of the two GFCs' financial markets. Lastly, in section 4 of chapter 3 and chapter 4, I examine the evolution process of two GFCs in the last three decades through the cointegration analysis model. The results indicate some certain determinants tend to affect the GFC evolution, such as economic growth, scale of international trade, labor productivity, capital yield, government regulation and so on.
In chapter 5, from the perspective of capital import and export, I conclude a three-phase theory about IFC evolution, which is exemplified by the evolution process of London and New York since the 18th century. Specifically, the IFC evolution can be divided into three stages, a financial center must become a domestic financial center which is characterized by domestic funds utilized by domestic industries in the early stage, and then evolve into the next stage, which is character- ized by the export of domestic capital and financial service. In the highest stage, some IFCs turn into the GFC, such as London GFC, which is characterized by foreign capital utilized by international institution, and New York GFC, which is characterized by foreign capital utilized by domestic economy.
In the last two sections of chapter 5, on the basis of financial data and marcoeconomic data from 1980 to 2006 of New York, London and Tokyo, I make multiple panel data analyses through Fixed-Effect Model. The one aims to seek the relevance between GFC developmental level and its determinants, the other aims to seek the relevance between developmental level and national welfare of host country. The former examination indicates some certain determinants tend to affect the IFC evolution, which include domestic economic condition, such as economic growth, labor cost, tax system, interest rate, saving rate, government regulation, and international economic condition, such as international trade volume, international capital volume, opening level of financial market, international regulation level and so on. The latter examination indicates, the IFC evolution, especially the development in banking of IFC, is beneficial to domestic inhabitant's income level, consumption level and state revenue, and thus to promote national welfare of host country. However, the IFC evolution is unhelpful to reduce domestic unemployment.
引文
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