我国电力产业与国民经济协调发展的理论与对策研究
|
摘要
自1997年以来,我国电力产业与国民经济之间的矛盾在不同的年份表现出不同的特点,并给社会发展带来显著的负面影响。政府多次出台政策试图缓解或解决这一矛盾,但收效甚微。其集中表现是,1997年亚洲金融危机后,随着经济发展速度的放慢,我国告别电力短缺进入了一个电力相对富余的阶段。2000年以来电力需求走出低谷,用电量连续四年快速增长,严重缺电的局面再度出现。2004年我国拉限电省份有24个,全国电力缺口超过3100万千瓦。根据国家发展与改革委员会的统计,至2007年初全国违规开工项目总计达1.25亿千瓦,很大程度上又出现了电力建设的盲目无序局面。电力供需存在地区差别,电网结构薄弱,调峰能力不足,电力产业内部结构不平衡,这一切都远不能适应21世纪国民经济发展对电力供应的数量和质量的要求。
事实上,政府对电力产业的规制政策频繁多变,始终未能找到一个有效的解决方案。这既反映了电力产业与国民经济之间矛盾的复杂性,同时也反映了目前的政策制定未能准确把握电力产业与国民经济之间矛盾的本质特性。其深层次原因则是,电力产业与国民经济之间矛盾的背后蕴含着许多深刻的理论问题,而产业组织理论和经济规制理论都无法提供现成的成果,可直接应用于两者纵向关系及相应的经济规制的研究。在这一意义上,理论与现实存在脱节。
本文认为,要给出解决我国电力产业与国民经济矛盾的有效方案,就必须准确把握电力产业和国民经济发展的基本特性以及影响两者协调发展的关键因素。主要研究内容为:第一部分包括第一、二章。主要从实践中提出问题,分析相关理论的不足与局限性,明确本文的研究目标。第二部分包括第三、四和五章,主要对电力产业与国民经济协调发展关系的分析和评价。首先将电力产业从国民经济系统中分离出来做为一个单独的系统,对电力产业——国民经济系统之间的关系进行了分析,并从我国的实际出发,采用1996-2006年国内生产总值与电力相关数据对全国电力供给和需求与经济增长关系进行研究,然后对1987-2006年电力产业和国民经济系统协调发展程度进行评价,最后利用灰色预测法建立模型预测2008年到2012年各指标数据,并计算国民经济与电力产业的协调发展情况。第三部分包括第六、七章,在前面电力产业—国民经济系统协调分析的基础上,从供给侧和需求侧出发对如何促进电力产业和国民经济协调发展提出了政策建议。第四部分是对本论文进行总结,归纳本文的主要研究结论、存在的问题以及为研究方向等,从而使本研究在理论和实践上都具有针对性。
本研究的主要创新点体现以下几个方面:
首先,现有研究主要直接采用一般的回归模型分析了我国国民经济与电力产业发展之间的关系,但在回归分析前未检验这两者之间是否存在长期的、稳定的因果关系,这属于方法应用方面的问题。本文采用动态计量经济学模型,包括序列平稳性分析、两序列的协整性分析和Granger因果分析方法,应用我国1996-2006的相关数据对国民经济和电力产业之间的协调关系进行了检验。
其次,现有研究主要分析了国民经济与电力产业之间的相互影响关系,但未对两者之间的协调发展关系进行分析,并且现有研究无法解决国民经济中的哪些因素对电力产业发展具有重要的影响作用以及电力产业中的哪些因素对国民经济发展具有重要的影响作用。本研究对国民经济增长与电力产业协调发展的内涵进行界定。由于至今尚没有一个得到一致认可的协调度模型,故采用三种模型,主要包括熵变方程法、耦合协调度模型和灰色关联度模型对中国国民经济增长与电力产业协调发展进行评价。
再次,在对1987-2006年我国国民经济与电力产业的协调发展状况进行评价后,采用灰色预测法对2008年到2012年国民经济与电力产业各指标数据进行了预测,然后对两者的协调关系进行了预测。
特别值得强调的是,要真正实现长期目标,归根结底需要构造坚实的产业链微观基础,这就要从基于厂商激励的电力产业安排上寻求解决之道。政府应该对电力产业采取鼓励纵向联合的基本政策,并首先以政府能源管理机构的合并为突破口。此外,考虑到中国国民经济发展的特性,政府还必须从能源战略整体布局的角度,对我国经济发展进行统筹规划。
Since 1997,the contradiction between the electric power industry and national economy in china shows the different character each year which has a bad effect on the development of society.There is little effect with the actions which government had taken to resolve the problem.The main representation is with the slowdown of the pace of development after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 that China bid farewell to shortage of electricity power and had entered a stage of relative surplus.Since 2000,electricity demand starts to recover,with the rapid growth of electricity consumption for the four consecutive year,and a serious power shortage situation was being again.China's 24 provinces had restrictions on electricity in 2004.And the national electric power gap is more than 31,000,000 kilowatts.According to the statistics of National Development and Reform Commission,the illegal projects had a total of 125,000,000 kilowatt early in 2007,which to a large extent also appeared an blindly and disorderly situation in the building of the power.The existence of differences power supply and demand in different regions,and the grid structure and capability of peaking were weak.As a result,the internal structure of the power industry is imbalance,which couldn't meet the requirement of the national economic development on the power supply quantity and quality.
In fact,the govemment's power industry policies changed frequently and had been unable to find an effective solution.This reflected the contradictory between the power industry and the national economy was complex,but also reflected the current policy-makers could not accurately grasp nature of the properties of the contradictory between the power industry and the national economy.Its deep-seated reason was that there were some profound theoretical issues behind the contradictory,whereas the theory of industrial organization and economic theory of regulation could not be ready to provide the research which could be directly applied to the vertical relationship and the corresponding economic regulation.In this sense,the existing theory was out of touch with reality.
In order to solve the contradiction between China's power industry and national economy, it is necessary to accurately grasp the character of the contradiction as well as the key factors that affected the relationship.The main contents of the study are:the first part is includes the introduction and the literature review.The main aim is to put forward the question from the practice,and to find the limitations of analysis of relevant theories,so as roger a clear objective of the study.The second part includes the third,fourth and five chapters,which are mainly on the analysis and evaluation of the coordinated development of relations between power industry and national economy.First of all,we see the power industry as a separate stand-alone system,and analyse the relationship between the power industry and the national economic system.We use the GDP and data of the electric power dustry in 1996-2006 to ananlyse the relationship between the supply and demand of electricity and economic growth.We evaluate the coordinated development of the power industry and national economic system in 1987-2006.At last,the paper forecast the data from 2008 to 2012 based on the gray prediction model and analyse the coordinate development of the power industry. and national economic system.
The third part includes sixth and seventh chapters.Based on the result of the analysis of the coordination between the power industry and national economic,we present the policy recommendations from the supply side and demand-side on how to promote the coordinated development of the power industry and national economy.The fourth part of this paper is to sum up,this article summarized the main conclusions of the study,as well as problems.
This study's main innovation are reflected in the following areas:
First of all,the current study mainly used a direct general regression analysis to analyse the relationship between China's national economy and the power industry,but not make the test about the existence of long-term and stable relationship of cause and effect before the test regression analysis,it is a matter of methods issues.In this paper,we use the dynamic econometric models,including a smooth sequence analysis of the sequence,the two co-integration analysis and Granger causal analysis,to test the coordinated relations between national economy and the power industry on the basis of the application of China's 1996-2006 data.
Second,the current study analyzed relations between the power industry and the national economy,but didn't analyzed the coordinated development of relations between them.Whatmore the study can not identify the factors which affected the development of power industry and the factors which have an important role in the impact of the national economy.This study define the connotation of the coordinated development of power industry and national economy.So far,there isn't a accordant model about coordination,So this paper use three models,including entropy equation,coupled coordination model and gray model to evaluate the coordinated development of China's national economic growth and power industry.
Third,after analysis of the coordinated development of China's national economy and power industry in 1987-2006,we use gray prediction to predict the indicators from 2008 to 2012,and then the coordination relations had forecast.
It is worth emphasizing that,it is necessary to construct a solid foundation for micro-industry chain to achieve real long-term goals,which should seek a solution from the arrangements of the power industry based on the encourage of manufacturers.Government should encourage the electric power industy to be vertical integration,and first of all the government's energy management instructures are the basis.In addition,taking into account the characteristics of China's national economic development,the government should plan the China's economic development from the perspective of the overall arrangement of energy strategy.
事实上,政府对电力产业的规制政策频繁多变,始终未能找到一个有效的解决方案。这既反映了电力产业与国民经济之间矛盾的复杂性,同时也反映了目前的政策制定未能准确把握电力产业与国民经济之间矛盾的本质特性。其深层次原因则是,电力产业与国民经济之间矛盾的背后蕴含着许多深刻的理论问题,而产业组织理论和经济规制理论都无法提供现成的成果,可直接应用于两者纵向关系及相应的经济规制的研究。在这一意义上,理论与现实存在脱节。
本文认为,要给出解决我国电力产业与国民经济矛盾的有效方案,就必须准确把握电力产业和国民经济发展的基本特性以及影响两者协调发展的关键因素。主要研究内容为:第一部分包括第一、二章。主要从实践中提出问题,分析相关理论的不足与局限性,明确本文的研究目标。第二部分包括第三、四和五章,主要对电力产业与国民经济协调发展关系的分析和评价。首先将电力产业从国民经济系统中分离出来做为一个单独的系统,对电力产业——国民经济系统之间的关系进行了分析,并从我国的实际出发,采用1996-2006年国内生产总值与电力相关数据对全国电力供给和需求与经济增长关系进行研究,然后对1987-2006年电力产业和国民经济系统协调发展程度进行评价,最后利用灰色预测法建立模型预测2008年到2012年各指标数据,并计算国民经济与电力产业的协调发展情况。第三部分包括第六、七章,在前面电力产业—国民经济系统协调分析的基础上,从供给侧和需求侧出发对如何促进电力产业和国民经济协调发展提出了政策建议。第四部分是对本论文进行总结,归纳本文的主要研究结论、存在的问题以及为研究方向等,从而使本研究在理论和实践上都具有针对性。
本研究的主要创新点体现以下几个方面:
首先,现有研究主要直接采用一般的回归模型分析了我国国民经济与电力产业发展之间的关系,但在回归分析前未检验这两者之间是否存在长期的、稳定的因果关系,这属于方法应用方面的问题。本文采用动态计量经济学模型,包括序列平稳性分析、两序列的协整性分析和Granger因果分析方法,应用我国1996-2006的相关数据对国民经济和电力产业之间的协调关系进行了检验。
其次,现有研究主要分析了国民经济与电力产业之间的相互影响关系,但未对两者之间的协调发展关系进行分析,并且现有研究无法解决国民经济中的哪些因素对电力产业发展具有重要的影响作用以及电力产业中的哪些因素对国民经济发展具有重要的影响作用。本研究对国民经济增长与电力产业协调发展的内涵进行界定。由于至今尚没有一个得到一致认可的协调度模型,故采用三种模型,主要包括熵变方程法、耦合协调度模型和灰色关联度模型对中国国民经济增长与电力产业协调发展进行评价。
再次,在对1987-2006年我国国民经济与电力产业的协调发展状况进行评价后,采用灰色预测法对2008年到2012年国民经济与电力产业各指标数据进行了预测,然后对两者的协调关系进行了预测。
特别值得强调的是,要真正实现长期目标,归根结底需要构造坚实的产业链微观基础,这就要从基于厂商激励的电力产业安排上寻求解决之道。政府应该对电力产业采取鼓励纵向联合的基本政策,并首先以政府能源管理机构的合并为突破口。此外,考虑到中国国民经济发展的特性,政府还必须从能源战略整体布局的角度,对我国经济发展进行统筹规划。
Since 1997,the contradiction between the electric power industry and national economy in china shows the different character each year which has a bad effect on the development of society.There is little effect with the actions which government had taken to resolve the problem.The main representation is with the slowdown of the pace of development after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 that China bid farewell to shortage of electricity power and had entered a stage of relative surplus.Since 2000,electricity demand starts to recover,with the rapid growth of electricity consumption for the four consecutive year,and a serious power shortage situation was being again.China's 24 provinces had restrictions on electricity in 2004.And the national electric power gap is more than 31,000,000 kilowatts.According to the statistics of National Development and Reform Commission,the illegal projects had a total of 125,000,000 kilowatt early in 2007,which to a large extent also appeared an blindly and disorderly situation in the building of the power.The existence of differences power supply and demand in different regions,and the grid structure and capability of peaking were weak.As a result,the internal structure of the power industry is imbalance,which couldn't meet the requirement of the national economic development on the power supply quantity and quality.
In fact,the govemment's power industry policies changed frequently and had been unable to find an effective solution.This reflected the contradictory between the power industry and the national economy was complex,but also reflected the current policy-makers could not accurately grasp nature of the properties of the contradictory between the power industry and the national economy.Its deep-seated reason was that there were some profound theoretical issues behind the contradictory,whereas the theory of industrial organization and economic theory of regulation could not be ready to provide the research which could be directly applied to the vertical relationship and the corresponding economic regulation.In this sense,the existing theory was out of touch with reality.
In order to solve the contradiction between China's power industry and national economy, it is necessary to accurately grasp the character of the contradiction as well as the key factors that affected the relationship.The main contents of the study are:the first part is includes the introduction and the literature review.The main aim is to put forward the question from the practice,and to find the limitations of analysis of relevant theories,so as roger a clear objective of the study.The second part includes the third,fourth and five chapters,which are mainly on the analysis and evaluation of the coordinated development of relations between power industry and national economy.First of all,we see the power industry as a separate stand-alone system,and analyse the relationship between the power industry and the national economic system.We use the GDP and data of the electric power dustry in 1996-2006 to ananlyse the relationship between the supply and demand of electricity and economic growth.We evaluate the coordinated development of the power industry and national economic system in 1987-2006.At last,the paper forecast the data from 2008 to 2012 based on the gray prediction model and analyse the coordinate development of the power industry. and national economic system.
The third part includes sixth and seventh chapters.Based on the result of the analysis of the coordination between the power industry and national economic,we present the policy recommendations from the supply side and demand-side on how to promote the coordinated development of the power industry and national economy.The fourth part of this paper is to sum up,this article summarized the main conclusions of the study,as well as problems.
This study's main innovation are reflected in the following areas:
First of all,the current study mainly used a direct general regression analysis to analyse the relationship between China's national economy and the power industry,but not make the test about the existence of long-term and stable relationship of cause and effect before the test regression analysis,it is a matter of methods issues.In this paper,we use the dynamic econometric models,including a smooth sequence analysis of the sequence,the two co-integration analysis and Granger causal analysis,to test the coordinated relations between national economy and the power industry on the basis of the application of China's 1996-2006 data.
Second,the current study analyzed relations between the power industry and the national economy,but didn't analyzed the coordinated development of relations between them.Whatmore the study can not identify the factors which affected the development of power industry and the factors which have an important role in the impact of the national economy.This study define the connotation of the coordinated development of power industry and national economy.So far,there isn't a accordant model about coordination,So this paper use three models,including entropy equation,coupled coordination model and gray model to evaluate the coordinated development of China's national economic growth and power industry.
Third,after analysis of the coordinated development of China's national economy and power industry in 1987-2006,we use gray prediction to predict the indicators from 2008 to 2012,and then the coordination relations had forecast.
It is worth emphasizing that,it is necessary to construct a solid foundation for micro-industry chain to achieve real long-term goals,which should seek a solution from the arrangements of the power industry based on the encourage of manufacturers.Government should encourage the electric power industy to be vertical integration,and first of all the government's energy management instructures are the basis.In addition,taking into account the characteristics of China's national economic development,the government should plan the China's economic development from the perspective of the overall arrangement of energy strategy.
引文
[2]资料来源:国家电监会网站
[3]资料来源:中华人民共和国环境保护部网站
[1]王维国,协调发展的理论与方法研究,中国财政经济出版社,2001
[2]张福伟,电力工业可持续发展指标体系与评价方法研究,[博士学位论文],北京:北京科技大学,2001,5
[3]阮大伟.电力体制改革与供应链管理.北京:中国经济出版社,2006
[4]康重庆,相年得,夏清.综合资源规划及其研究热点问题.电网技术,1997,21(4):19-23
[5]胡兆光.需求侧管理在中国的应用与实施.电力系统自动化,2001,26(12):41-44
[6]杨志荣,劳德容.需求方管理及其应用.北京:中国电力出版社,1999
[7]曾鸣.综合资源规划及其激励理论与应用.北京:中国经济出版社,2000
[8]曾鸣.电力需求侧管理.北京:中国电力出版社,2001
[9]Rosenstoek,StevenJ.Issues in Demand—Side management Programso Perated by electric utilities in the United States.Proeeedings of the Intersoeiety Energy Conversion Engineering Conferenee,v3,1996,p1595-1606
[10]齐正平.电力需求侧管理的综合评价体系研究[硕士学位论文].华北电力大学工商管理学院,2004
[11]胡兆光.我国经济发展对电耗的影响及电力的需求浅析[J].中国能源,2007,29(10):5-9.
[12]任玉珑,余良.需求侧管理技术对能源和环境的影响分析[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2002,25(11):30-33.
[13]刘海涛,龚乐年.关于实施需求侧管理项目的成本效益分析[J].电力自动化设备,2002,22(10):31-34.
[14]陈超仁,余岳峰等.DSM评估模型及新发展[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(6):16-19.
[15]王绵斌,谭忠富等.考虑不确定性因素的需求侧管理成本效益分析模型[J].电网技术.2006,30(14):59-63.
[16]周明,李庚银等.电力市场下电力需求侧管理实施机制初探[J].电网技术.2005,29(5):6-11.
[17]刘怀德.应对电力市场复杂性挑战求解市场竞争制度难题[J].长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版).2005,20(1):127-128.
[18]李济英.电力工业与国民经济互动关系分析—电力工业发展问题研究之一.生产力研究,2004,2(51):134-136
[19]蒋金荷,姚愉芳.中国经济增长与电力发展关系的定量分析研究[]J.数量经济技术经济研究,2002,10(1):5-10
[20]吴敬琏.电力企业改制要符合两条基本原则.国际电力网.2008(2).http://www.in-en.Com /power/html/power-0833083362165237.html
[21]刘纪鹏.电力:谨防破碎式改革[J].中国改革,2001,(7):28-30
[22]徐兆畅.我国电力供应紧张之问题与对策[J].广州市经济管理干部学院学报,2006,2(2):10-13
[23]常青,张志平.电力产业发展中体制改革的几点思考[J].吉林电力,2006,34(6):53-56
[24][美]周定山.西方国家电力体制改革实践及经验教训.北京:中国水利水电出版社.2005.2-11,219-227
[25]林伯强.电力短缺、短期措施与长期战略.经济研究.2004(3):28-36
[26]刘戒骄,张其仔.制度互补与电力市场化改革.2006,217(4):29-35
[27]林伯强:中国电力发展:提高电价和限电的经济影响,《经济研究》2006,第5期。
[28]Stigle,G.J.,and C.Friend.What can the Reuglatosr Reuglate:The Case of Electricity,Journal of Law and F.Eeonomies,1962,4,1-16.
[29]Kahn,A.,The Economics of Reuglation:Principle and Insitiuttlons,NewYork:Wiley,Reprinted 1988,Cambridge:The MTI Perss,1970.
[30]Wallsten,S.J.,In Economertic Analysis of Telecom Competition,Privatization and Reuglation in Africa and Latin America,The Journal Indusrtial Economics,2001,49,1-19.
[31]Toreor,M.and Paseo-Font,A.,The Social Impact of Privation and Reuglation of Utilities in Peru,United Natinos University,World Institute for Develpoment Economics Research,Discussion Paper No.2001,17,52-86.
[32]Spiller,P.T.and Martorell,L.V.,How Should Be Done?Electricity Reuglation in Argentina,Bazdl,Urugyay and Chile,International Comparasions of Electricity Reuglation,Cambridge University Perss,1996.
[33]Steiner,F,Reuglation,Industry Structure and Performance in the Electricity Supply Industry,Economics department Working Papers No.238,Paris:OECD,2000
[34]Parker,D.,Economic Regulation:A Review of Issues,Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics,2002,73(4)
[35]Kleit,A.K.and Terrell,D.,Measuring Potential Efficiency Gains from Deregulation of electricity Generation:a Bayesian Approach,Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(3),523-530
[36]Jamasb,T.and Polliyy M.,bencharking and Regulation of Electricity Transmission and Distribution Utility:Lessons from International Experience,Working Paper,University of Cambridge,2000.
[37]Bacon,R.W.and Besant-Jones,J.,Global Electricity Power Reform,Privation and Liberalization of the Electric Power Industry in Developing Countries,Annual Reviews Energy &the Environment,2001,26,331-359
[38]Arocena,P and Price,C.W.,Generation Efficiency:Economic and Environmental Regulation of Public and Private Electricity Generators in Spain,Intertional Journal of Industrial Organization,2002,20,41-69
[39]刘世锦,冯飞主编:《中国电力改革和可持续发展》,北京,经济管理出版社,2003年版。
[40]徐金发,朱晓燕:《我国电力管制价格模型研究》,《价格理论与实践》,2002(5),第20-24页。
[41]朱晓燕,施浩勋:《输电系统治理模式比较研究》,《首都经济贸易大学学报》,2004(1),第66-71页.
[42]Alice Shiu,Pun-Lee Lam.Eiectricity consumption and economic growth in China.Energy Policy,2004,22:47-54
[43]吴忠标,陈劲.环境管理与可持续发展[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2001:200-201
[44]曾珍香等.可持续发展的系统分析与评价[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.
[45]马昕,朱亚星等,中国电力工业与国民经济增长关系的研究[J],统计与决策,2007(03):98-100
[46]Asafu-Adjaye,J.The relationship between electricity consumption,electricity prices and economic growth:time series evidence from developing countries.Energy Economics,2000,22:615-625
[47]Robert W.Hahn,the impact of economic on environmental policy,Journal of environmental economics and management 2002.39,375-399
[48]Stern,D.I..Energy and Growth in the USA:A Multivariate Approach,Energy Economies,1993,15:137-150
[49]Cheng,B.L.,Lai,T.W.An Investigation of Cointegration and Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in Taiwan.Energy Economics,1997,19:435-444
[50]Yang,H.Y,.A Note on the Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in Taiwan.Energy Economics,2000,22:309-317
[51]Soytas,U.,and Sari,R..Energy Consumption and GDP:Causality Relationship in G7 Countries and Emerging Markets,Energy Economics,2003,25:33-37
[52]George Hondroyiannis,Sarantis Lolos,Evangelia Papapetrou.Energy consumption and economic growth:assessing the evidence from Greece.Energy Economics,2002 24:319-336
[53]林伯强.结构变化、效率改进和能源需求预测——以中国电力行业为例.经济研究,2003年第5期:57-65
[54]史丹.我国经济增长过程中能源利用效率的改进.经济研究,2002年第9期:49-56
[55]Charles B.L.Jumbe.Cointegration and causality between electricity consumpt and GDP:empirical evidence from Malawi.Energy Economics,2004,26:61-68
[56]Fisher R.A.Statistical Methods for Research Workers[M],Edinburgh:Oliver&Boyd,2001,1(1):120-122
[57]Risako Morimoto,Chris HoPe.The impact of electricity supply on economic growth in Sri Lanka[J].Energy Economics,2004,26(1):77-85
[58]Howarth,R.B.,Schipper,L.,Duerr,P.A.,Strom,S.Manufacturing energy use in eight OECD countries:decomposing the impacts of changes in output,industry structure and energy intensity.Energy Economics,2003,13:135-142
[59]潘朝顺,程昆.2003年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者Gmager和恩格尔的学术贡献田.数量经济学研究,2004,3(1):154-158
[60]Ferguson R.,Wilkinson W.,Hill R.Electricity use and economic development.Energy Policy,2000,28:923-934
[61]Alice Shiu,Pun-Lee Lam.Electricity consumption and economic growth in China.Energy Policy,2004,32:47-54
[62]张军.电力工业与国民经济增长关系的防整分析及对策建议.华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2004,4:35-37
[63]胡兆光,方燕平.我国经济发展与电力需求趋势分析.中国电力,2000,33(8):90-91
[64]赵丽霞,魏巍贤.胄皂源与经济增长模型研究.预测.1998,6:21-23
[65]陈书通、耿志成、董路影.九十年代以来我国能源与经济增长关系分析.中国能源,1996,12:13-16
[66]徐兆畅.我国电力供应紧张之问题与对策.广州市经济管理干部学院学报,2006,8(30):10-13
[67]H.Qudrat-Uiiah,Pal I Davidsen,understand the dynamics of electricity supply,resources and poilutiong:Pakistan's case,Energy,2001.26,595-606.
[68]Allen Blaekman,Xun Wu.Foreign direct investment in China's power sector:trends,benefits and barriers.Energy,Policy.1999.27,695-711
[69]Philip Andrews-Speed,Stephen Dow,Andreas Oberheitmann,Bruce Ramsay.First steps in power sector reform:the case of China's Guangdong Province.Utilities Policy.2003.11,169-183
[70]Philip Andrews-Speed,Stephen Dow.Reform of China's electric power industry Challenges facing the government.Energy Policy.2000.28,335-347
[71]Pun-Lee Lain,Alice Shiu A data envelopment analysis of the efficiency of China's thermal power generation.Utilities Policy.2001.10,75-83
[72]Ming Yang,Xin Yu.China's rural electricity market—a quantitative analysis.Energy.2004.29,961-977
[73]X.Liang,L.Goe.The achievements and trend of tariff reform in China-The experience in Shandong Province.Utilities Policy.1997,4,341-348
[74]H.W.Ngana,J.H.Wanga,W.Engriwana,K.L.Lob.A feasible reform for the electricity supply industry in Hong.Energy Policy(in press)
[75]杨志荣,能源电力要与经济和环境协调发展,电力需求侧管理,2001.4,5-8
[76]高宏,王浣尘,电力可持续发展系统分析,水电能源科学,1999.3,35-38
[77]张福伟,电力工业可持续发展指标体系与评价方法研究,(博士学位论文),北京:北京科技 大学,2001,5
[78]徐金发,朱晓燕,中国电力管制价格形成机制研究[]J,中国软科学,2002,(6):45-48.
[79]曾鸣.电力市场.北京:中国电力出版社.2000
[80]余晖.规制与规制重建.经济理论与经济管理.2002.4,34-39
[81]罗道平,肖笛.数据包络分析(DEA)在电力工业的应用.系统工程理论与实践1996,4
[82]王金祥,赵强,吴育华.基于随机前沿面的电力工业技术效率分析.Tansactions of Tianjin university.2002.8(3):
[83]汤萌,沐明.电力市场化改革与电力产业的可持续发展.中国软科学,2003.12,22-26
[84]汪贵浦.改革提高了垄断行业的绩效吗?——对我国电信、电力、民航、铁路业的实证考察.浙江:浙江大学出版社.2005,217-223,88-102
[85]朱法华,薛人杰,朱庚富.利用排放绩效分配电力行业SO2排放配额的研究.中国电力2003(36)12:76-79
[86]胡嵩.环境绩效评价概述及探讨.北方经贸.2006,1:45-46
[87]何永秀,赵四化等.中国电力工业与国民经济增长的关系研究[J],当代经济研究,2006(01)
[88]Asafu-Adjaye,J.The relationship between electricity consumption,electricity prices and economic growth:time series evidence from developing countries.Energy Economics,2000,22:615-625
[89]陈汉利,马超群.中国电力消费与经济增长的互动关系研究.湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2007(09):90-92
[90]Lee C C.Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis[J]Energy Economics,2005,27:415-427.
[91]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长:基于生产函数的研究[J].管理世界,2003,11:18-27.
[92]蒋金荷,姚愉芳.中国经济增长与电力发展关系的定量分析研究[]J.数量经济技术经济研究,2002,10(1):5-10
[93]黄波,曾玉红.用电量与经济增长相关性的实证分析[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2004,3:31-33.
[94]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长:基于生产函数的研究[J],管理世界,2003(11):18-27.
[95]陈汉利,马超群等.电力消费与中国经济增长的关系分析[J],系统工程,2007(08):68-73
[96]易单辉擞据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2002:201-204
[97]张晓炯.计量经济分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2000:221-223
[98]何莉.协整分析与误差修正模型[fJ}.经济经纬,2006,3(30):108-110
[99]宁德春,龙如银.第三产业与国内生产总值Granger因果关系检验「J」.郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2004,22(1):14-15
[100]Johansen,5.,JuseliuS,K.Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inferences on Cointegration with application to the demand for money 「J」,Oxford Bulletin of Ecorromise and Statistics,1990, 52(1):169-210
[101]白雪梅.对经济变量间因果关系检验方法的探讨[J].东北财经大学学报,2000,7(4):62-63
[102]中国国家统计局.2007年中国统计年鉴、中国电力统计年鉴[R].北京:国家统计局出版社,2008
[103]姜绍俊,电力与经济发展的相关性分析[J],电力技术经济,2006(10):11-14
[104]孟庆松等.复合系统协调度模型研究[[J].天津大学学报.2000年,33(4):444-446
[105]刘耀彬,宋学锋.城市化与生态环境耦合模式及判别[J].地理科学,2005(8):408-413
[106]刘耀彬等.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析[M].地理学报,2005(2):237-247
[107]吴雷,许秀英,陈俊良.利用耗散结构中的熵变计算探讨城镇生态系统的发展方向[J].城市环境与城市生态,2000(2):42-44
[108]林逢春,王华东.环境经济系统分类及协调发展判据研究[J].中国环境科学,1995(6):429-432
[109]王维国.协调发展的理论与方法研究[M].北京:中国财经济出版社,2000:213-215
[110]曹利军,王华东.可持续发展评价指标体系建立原理与方法研究[J].环境科学学报,1998(5):526-532
[111]林道辉等.可持续发展的定量评价与限制因子分析[J].浙江大学学报(理学版),2001(1):76-81
[112]李松,邸彦彪.灰色关联度用于可持续发展协调度评价的探讨[J].辽宁工学院学报,2006(04)
[113]邓聚龙.灰理论基础.2002.武汉:华中科技大学出版社.
[114]王大成,程浩忠,奚殉,朱杰,张涌.灰参数GM(1,1)模型及其在电力负荷预测中的应用华东电力,2004,32(8):2-6
[115]Fisher,R,Galetoviz,A.2000.Regulatory governance and Chile's 1998-1999electricityshortage.Working paper,Serie Economia NO.84,Universidad de Chile.2000:available from http//www.google.com
[116]王俊豪.英国政府规制体制改革研究.北京:经济科学出版社,1999:76-79
[117]刘戒骄:垄断产业改革—基于网络视角的分析,北京:经济管理出版社,2005
[118]Jason Makansi.California's Eleetricity Crisis Rooted in Many Failings.IEEE Speetrum,2001,38(2)
[119]Mariia Ilic,Petter Skantze,Poonsaeng Visudhiphan.Electricity Troubles in California:Who's Next?IEEE Speetrum,2001,38(2)
[120]Barbara Klein.Munis Avert Total California Gloom.IEEE Speetrum,2001,38(2)
[121]王俊豪.中国政府管制体制改革研究.北京:经济科学出版社,1999:2
[122]国务院发展研究中心产经部.中国电力改革与可持续发展战略研究.2002:75-77
[123]于立宏,郁义鸿.需求波动下的煤电纵向关系安排与政府规制[J].管理世界,2006,(4).
[124]Gilbert R.J.,Riordan M.H.Regulating Complementary Products:A Comparative Institutional Analysis[J].RAND Journal of Economics,1995,(2).
[125]刘世锦.中国电力改革与可持续发展.北京:经济管理出版社.2003:20
[126]Knittel C.R.Regulatory Imperfections in the Electricity and Natural Gas Industries:Evidence from the Pricing and Investment Decisions of Single and Multi-product Electricity Firms[R].www.ucei.berkeley.edu/ucei,University of California Energy Institute,Working Paper,1999.
[127]Yanez J.A.F.Incentive Regulation in Vertically Related Industries:Welfare Effects of Industry Structure and Institutional Coordination[R].Working Paper,2002.
[128]林伯强.中国电力工业发展:改革进程与配套改革[J].管理世界,2005,(8).
[129]李文卿.电力工业与经济增长关系的定量研究[J].科技经济市场,2007,25(8):100-102
[130]樊纲,胡永泰.“循序渐进”还是“平行推进”——一论体制转轨最优路径的理论与政策[J].经济研究,2005,(1).
[131]王廷惠.微观规制理论研究—基于对正统理论的批判和将市场作为一个过程的理解.北京:中国社会科学出版社.2005:576-581
[132]刘纪鹏,电力改革输配分开谋定而后动.中国经济时报.2006年4月24
[133]王学庆.管制垄断—垄断性行业的政府管制.冲国水利水电出版社,2004:42-44
[134]王俊豪,周小梅.中国自然垄断产业民营化改革与政府管制政策.北京:经济管理出版社2004
[135]苏子微.政府与行业协会关系的错位与纠正.生产力研究.2005(1):96-97
[136]肖兴志.自然垄断产业规制改革模式研究,大连:东北财经大学出版社.2003:44
[137]于立,刘劲松.中国煤、电关系的产业组织分析[J].中国工业经济,2004,(9).
[138]MilesL.Burnett,Testing the state environmental protection Iiterature in a nonregulatory Policy arena implementation of Pollution Prevention Policy in Caliofrnia and Colorado,Th eSocial Science Journal 2002,39,333-347
[139]A.FMassardo,M.Santarelli,R.Borchiellini,Carbon exergy tax:its impact on conventional energy system design and its contribution to advanced systems utilization,Energy 2003.28,607-625
[140]宋守信,电力市场机制,中国电力出版社2002
[141]Sally Hunt,Making Competition Work in Electricity,Chinese(Simplified Character Only)Trade Paperback Copyright,2004
[142]曾鸣,孙昕,张启平,等.我国电力需求侧管理的激励机制及政策建议[J].电力需求侧管理,2003,5(2):3-6.
[143]麦卡锡·埃德加原作,贡光禹编译.英国竞争性电力环境中的需求侧管理[J].电力需求侧管理,2000,3:44-46.
[144]国家经贸委考察团.美国加拿大电力需求侧管理考察报告[J].电力需求侧管 理,2002,4(3):58-60.
[145]杨志荣.DSM演进历史的评析[J].中国能源,2003,(4):22-26.
[146]EIA.Electric Utility Demand Side Management 1999[R].Washington,DC:Energy Information Administration.2001.
[147]Kushler,M.and P.Witte.A Revised 50-State Status Report on Electric Restructuring and Public Benefits[R]..Washington,DC:American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.2001.
[148]Roger Peters,PEng,MEng and Maya Papineau,MSc.Demand Side Management Incentives in Canada[R].Ottawa:The Pembina Institute for Appropriate Develop ment,2004.
[149]lndEco report.Electricity demand side management and demand response in municipalities:workshop background paper[R],Toronto:the Clean Air Partnership,2004.
[150]许之敏.电力需求侧管理现状、问题及对策[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(4):3-4.
[151]The Allen Consulting Group Pty Ltd.The Energy Efficiency Gap-Market Failures and Policy Options[R],Melboume:the Business Council for Sustainable Energy,2004.
[152]丁伟,袁家海,胡兆光.基于用户价格响应和满意度的峰谷分时电价决策模型.电力系统自动化,2005,20:10-14
[153]杨笑.我国电力需求侧管理的激励机制及政策建议[J].中国科技信息,2005,(17):48.
[154]谢翠菊,孙新跃,周志伟.电力需求侧管理激励机制探讨[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(4):53-55.
[155]杨志荣,胡兆光,周伏秋,等.DSM的政府行动[J].电力需求侧管理,2002,4(1):1-4.
[156]段铷,张彩庆,刘爱芳.电力市场环境下需求侧管理的成本效益分析模型及优化[J].华东电力,2005,33(4):8-10.
[157]陈肖红,张彩庆,齐正平.DSM激励机制及其在我国的可行性[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(5):7-9.
[158]朱成章,徐任武.需求侧管理(DSM)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1999.1-2.
[159]周明,李庚银,倪以信.电力市场下电力需求侧管理实施机制初探[J].电网技术,2005,29(5):6-11.
[160]赵细康.引导绿色技术创新[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2006:90
[161]钟晖,王建峰.建立绿色技术创新机制[J].生态经济,2000(3):41-44
[162]Lyudmyla Maksymlv,Environmental accounting as an instrument of environmental management system in transitional economics.5tn international conference on ethics and environmental policies business styles and sustainable development,2003
[3]资料来源:中华人民共和国环境保护部网站
[1]王维国,协调发展的理论与方法研究,中国财政经济出版社,2001
[2]张福伟,电力工业可持续发展指标体系与评价方法研究,[博士学位论文],北京:北京科技大学,2001,5
[3]阮大伟.电力体制改革与供应链管理.北京:中国经济出版社,2006
[4]康重庆,相年得,夏清.综合资源规划及其研究热点问题.电网技术,1997,21(4):19-23
[5]胡兆光.需求侧管理在中国的应用与实施.电力系统自动化,2001,26(12):41-44
[6]杨志荣,劳德容.需求方管理及其应用.北京:中国电力出版社,1999
[7]曾鸣.综合资源规划及其激励理论与应用.北京:中国经济出版社,2000
[8]曾鸣.电力需求侧管理.北京:中国电力出版社,2001
[9]Rosenstoek,StevenJ.Issues in Demand—Side management Programso Perated by electric utilities in the United States.Proeeedings of the Intersoeiety Energy Conversion Engineering Conferenee,v3,1996,p1595-1606
[10]齐正平.电力需求侧管理的综合评价体系研究[硕士学位论文].华北电力大学工商管理学院,2004
[11]胡兆光.我国经济发展对电耗的影响及电力的需求浅析[J].中国能源,2007,29(10):5-9.
[12]任玉珑,余良.需求侧管理技术对能源和环境的影响分析[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2002,25(11):30-33.
[13]刘海涛,龚乐年.关于实施需求侧管理项目的成本效益分析[J].电力自动化设备,2002,22(10):31-34.
[14]陈超仁,余岳峰等.DSM评估模型及新发展[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(6):16-19.
[15]王绵斌,谭忠富等.考虑不确定性因素的需求侧管理成本效益分析模型[J].电网技术.2006,30(14):59-63.
[16]周明,李庚银等.电力市场下电力需求侧管理实施机制初探[J].电网技术.2005,29(5):6-11.
[17]刘怀德.应对电力市场复杂性挑战求解市场竞争制度难题[J].长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版).2005,20(1):127-128.
[18]李济英.电力工业与国民经济互动关系分析—电力工业发展问题研究之一.生产力研究,2004,2(51):134-136
[19]蒋金荷,姚愉芳.中国经济增长与电力发展关系的定量分析研究[]J.数量经济技术经济研究,2002,10(1):5-10
[20]吴敬琏.电力企业改制要符合两条基本原则.国际电力网.2008(2).http://www.in-en.Com /power/html/power-0833083362165237.html
[21]刘纪鹏.电力:谨防破碎式改革[J].中国改革,2001,(7):28-30
[22]徐兆畅.我国电力供应紧张之问题与对策[J].广州市经济管理干部学院学报,2006,2(2):10-13
[23]常青,张志平.电力产业发展中体制改革的几点思考[J].吉林电力,2006,34(6):53-56
[24][美]周定山.西方国家电力体制改革实践及经验教训.北京:中国水利水电出版社.2005.2-11,219-227
[25]林伯强.电力短缺、短期措施与长期战略.经济研究.2004(3):28-36
[26]刘戒骄,张其仔.制度互补与电力市场化改革.2006,217(4):29-35
[27]林伯强:中国电力发展:提高电价和限电的经济影响,《经济研究》2006,第5期。
[28]Stigle,G.J.,and C.Friend.What can the Reuglatosr Reuglate:The Case of Electricity,Journal of Law and F.Eeonomies,1962,4,1-16.
[29]Kahn,A.,The Economics of Reuglation:Principle and Insitiuttlons,NewYork:Wiley,Reprinted 1988,Cambridge:The MTI Perss,1970.
[30]Wallsten,S.J.,In Economertic Analysis of Telecom Competition,Privatization and Reuglation in Africa and Latin America,The Journal Indusrtial Economics,2001,49,1-19.
[31]Toreor,M.and Paseo-Font,A.,The Social Impact of Privation and Reuglation of Utilities in Peru,United Natinos University,World Institute for Develpoment Economics Research,Discussion Paper No.2001,17,52-86.
[32]Spiller,P.T.and Martorell,L.V.,How Should Be Done?Electricity Reuglation in Argentina,Bazdl,Urugyay and Chile,International Comparasions of Electricity Reuglation,Cambridge University Perss,1996.
[33]Steiner,F,Reuglation,Industry Structure and Performance in the Electricity Supply Industry,Economics department Working Papers No.238,Paris:OECD,2000
[34]Parker,D.,Economic Regulation:A Review of Issues,Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics,2002,73(4)
[35]Kleit,A.K.and Terrell,D.,Measuring Potential Efficiency Gains from Deregulation of electricity Generation:a Bayesian Approach,Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(3),523-530
[36]Jamasb,T.and Polliyy M.,bencharking and Regulation of Electricity Transmission and Distribution Utility:Lessons from International Experience,Working Paper,University of Cambridge,2000.
[37]Bacon,R.W.and Besant-Jones,J.,Global Electricity Power Reform,Privation and Liberalization of the Electric Power Industry in Developing Countries,Annual Reviews Energy &the Environment,2001,26,331-359
[38]Arocena,P and Price,C.W.,Generation Efficiency:Economic and Environmental Regulation of Public and Private Electricity Generators in Spain,Intertional Journal of Industrial Organization,2002,20,41-69
[39]刘世锦,冯飞主编:《中国电力改革和可持续发展》,北京,经济管理出版社,2003年版。
[40]徐金发,朱晓燕:《我国电力管制价格模型研究》,《价格理论与实践》,2002(5),第20-24页。
[41]朱晓燕,施浩勋:《输电系统治理模式比较研究》,《首都经济贸易大学学报》,2004(1),第66-71页.
[42]Alice Shiu,Pun-Lee Lam.Eiectricity consumption and economic growth in China.Energy Policy,2004,22:47-54
[43]吴忠标,陈劲.环境管理与可持续发展[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2001:200-201
[44]曾珍香等.可持续发展的系统分析与评价[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.
[45]马昕,朱亚星等,中国电力工业与国民经济增长关系的研究[J],统计与决策,2007(03):98-100
[46]Asafu-Adjaye,J.The relationship between electricity consumption,electricity prices and economic growth:time series evidence from developing countries.Energy Economics,2000,22:615-625
[47]Robert W.Hahn,the impact of economic on environmental policy,Journal of environmental economics and management 2002.39,375-399
[48]Stern,D.I..Energy and Growth in the USA:A Multivariate Approach,Energy Economies,1993,15:137-150
[49]Cheng,B.L.,Lai,T.W.An Investigation of Cointegration and Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in Taiwan.Energy Economics,1997,19:435-444
[50]Yang,H.Y,.A Note on the Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in Taiwan.Energy Economics,2000,22:309-317
[51]Soytas,U.,and Sari,R..Energy Consumption and GDP:Causality Relationship in G7 Countries and Emerging Markets,Energy Economics,2003,25:33-37
[52]George Hondroyiannis,Sarantis Lolos,Evangelia Papapetrou.Energy consumption and economic growth:assessing the evidence from Greece.Energy Economics,2002 24:319-336
[53]林伯强.结构变化、效率改进和能源需求预测——以中国电力行业为例.经济研究,2003年第5期:57-65
[54]史丹.我国经济增长过程中能源利用效率的改进.经济研究,2002年第9期:49-56
[55]Charles B.L.Jumbe.Cointegration and causality between electricity consumpt and GDP:empirical evidence from Malawi.Energy Economics,2004,26:61-68
[56]Fisher R.A.Statistical Methods for Research Workers[M],Edinburgh:Oliver&Boyd,2001,1(1):120-122
[57]Risako Morimoto,Chris HoPe.The impact of electricity supply on economic growth in Sri Lanka[J].Energy Economics,2004,26(1):77-85
[58]Howarth,R.B.,Schipper,L.,Duerr,P.A.,Strom,S.Manufacturing energy use in eight OECD countries:decomposing the impacts of changes in output,industry structure and energy intensity.Energy Economics,2003,13:135-142
[59]潘朝顺,程昆.2003年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者Gmager和恩格尔的学术贡献田.数量经济学研究,2004,3(1):154-158
[60]Ferguson R.,Wilkinson W.,Hill R.Electricity use and economic development.Energy Policy,2000,28:923-934
[61]Alice Shiu,Pun-Lee Lam.Electricity consumption and economic growth in China.Energy Policy,2004,32:47-54
[62]张军.电力工业与国民经济增长关系的防整分析及对策建议.华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2004,4:35-37
[63]胡兆光,方燕平.我国经济发展与电力需求趋势分析.中国电力,2000,33(8):90-91
[64]赵丽霞,魏巍贤.胄皂源与经济增长模型研究.预测.1998,6:21-23
[65]陈书通、耿志成、董路影.九十年代以来我国能源与经济增长关系分析.中国能源,1996,12:13-16
[66]徐兆畅.我国电力供应紧张之问题与对策.广州市经济管理干部学院学报,2006,8(30):10-13
[67]H.Qudrat-Uiiah,Pal I Davidsen,understand the dynamics of electricity supply,resources and poilutiong:Pakistan's case,Energy,2001.26,595-606.
[68]Allen Blaekman,Xun Wu.Foreign direct investment in China's power sector:trends,benefits and barriers.Energy,Policy.1999.27,695-711
[69]Philip Andrews-Speed,Stephen Dow,Andreas Oberheitmann,Bruce Ramsay.First steps in power sector reform:the case of China's Guangdong Province.Utilities Policy.2003.11,169-183
[70]Philip Andrews-Speed,Stephen Dow.Reform of China's electric power industry Challenges facing the government.Energy Policy.2000.28,335-347
[71]Pun-Lee Lain,Alice Shiu A data envelopment analysis of the efficiency of China's thermal power generation.Utilities Policy.2001.10,75-83
[72]Ming Yang,Xin Yu.China's rural electricity market—a quantitative analysis.Energy.2004.29,961-977
[73]X.Liang,L.Goe.The achievements and trend of tariff reform in China-The experience in Shandong Province.Utilities Policy.1997,4,341-348
[74]H.W.Ngana,J.H.Wanga,W.Engriwana,K.L.Lob.A feasible reform for the electricity supply industry in Hong.Energy Policy(in press)
[75]杨志荣,能源电力要与经济和环境协调发展,电力需求侧管理,2001.4,5-8
[76]高宏,王浣尘,电力可持续发展系统分析,水电能源科学,1999.3,35-38
[77]张福伟,电力工业可持续发展指标体系与评价方法研究,(博士学位论文),北京:北京科技 大学,2001,5
[78]徐金发,朱晓燕,中国电力管制价格形成机制研究[]J,中国软科学,2002,(6):45-48.
[79]曾鸣.电力市场.北京:中国电力出版社.2000
[80]余晖.规制与规制重建.经济理论与经济管理.2002.4,34-39
[81]罗道平,肖笛.数据包络分析(DEA)在电力工业的应用.系统工程理论与实践1996,4
[82]王金祥,赵强,吴育华.基于随机前沿面的电力工业技术效率分析.Tansactions of Tianjin university.2002.8(3):
[83]汤萌,沐明.电力市场化改革与电力产业的可持续发展.中国软科学,2003.12,22-26
[84]汪贵浦.改革提高了垄断行业的绩效吗?——对我国电信、电力、民航、铁路业的实证考察.浙江:浙江大学出版社.2005,217-223,88-102
[85]朱法华,薛人杰,朱庚富.利用排放绩效分配电力行业SO2排放配额的研究.中国电力2003(36)12:76-79
[86]胡嵩.环境绩效评价概述及探讨.北方经贸.2006,1:45-46
[87]何永秀,赵四化等.中国电力工业与国民经济增长的关系研究[J],当代经济研究,2006(01)
[88]Asafu-Adjaye,J.The relationship between electricity consumption,electricity prices and economic growth:time series evidence from developing countries.Energy Economics,2000,22:615-625
[89]陈汉利,马超群.中国电力消费与经济增长的互动关系研究.湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2007(09):90-92
[90]Lee C C.Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis[J]Energy Economics,2005,27:415-427.
[91]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长:基于生产函数的研究[J].管理世界,2003,11:18-27.
[92]蒋金荷,姚愉芳.中国经济增长与电力发展关系的定量分析研究[]J.数量经济技术经济研究,2002,10(1):5-10
[93]黄波,曾玉红.用电量与经济增长相关性的实证分析[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2004,3:31-33.
[94]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长:基于生产函数的研究[J],管理世界,2003(11):18-27.
[95]陈汉利,马超群等.电力消费与中国经济增长的关系分析[J],系统工程,2007(08):68-73
[96]易单辉擞据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2002:201-204
[97]张晓炯.计量经济分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2000:221-223
[98]何莉.协整分析与误差修正模型[fJ}.经济经纬,2006,3(30):108-110
[99]宁德春,龙如银.第三产业与国内生产总值Granger因果关系检验「J」.郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2004,22(1):14-15
[100]Johansen,5.,JuseliuS,K.Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inferences on Cointegration with application to the demand for money 「J」,Oxford Bulletin of Ecorromise and Statistics,1990, 52(1):169-210
[101]白雪梅.对经济变量间因果关系检验方法的探讨[J].东北财经大学学报,2000,7(4):62-63
[102]中国国家统计局.2007年中国统计年鉴、中国电力统计年鉴[R].北京:国家统计局出版社,2008
[103]姜绍俊,电力与经济发展的相关性分析[J],电力技术经济,2006(10):11-14
[104]孟庆松等.复合系统协调度模型研究[[J].天津大学学报.2000年,33(4):444-446
[105]刘耀彬,宋学锋.城市化与生态环境耦合模式及判别[J].地理科学,2005(8):408-413
[106]刘耀彬等.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析[M].地理学报,2005(2):237-247
[107]吴雷,许秀英,陈俊良.利用耗散结构中的熵变计算探讨城镇生态系统的发展方向[J].城市环境与城市生态,2000(2):42-44
[108]林逢春,王华东.环境经济系统分类及协调发展判据研究[J].中国环境科学,1995(6):429-432
[109]王维国.协调发展的理论与方法研究[M].北京:中国财经济出版社,2000:213-215
[110]曹利军,王华东.可持续发展评价指标体系建立原理与方法研究[J].环境科学学报,1998(5):526-532
[111]林道辉等.可持续发展的定量评价与限制因子分析[J].浙江大学学报(理学版),2001(1):76-81
[112]李松,邸彦彪.灰色关联度用于可持续发展协调度评价的探讨[J].辽宁工学院学报,2006(04)
[113]邓聚龙.灰理论基础.2002.武汉:华中科技大学出版社.
[114]王大成,程浩忠,奚殉,朱杰,张涌.灰参数GM(1,1)模型及其在电力负荷预测中的应用华东电力,2004,32(8):2-6
[115]Fisher,R,Galetoviz,A.2000.Regulatory governance and Chile's 1998-1999electricityshortage.Working paper,Serie Economia NO.84,Universidad de Chile.2000:available from http//www.google.com
[116]王俊豪.英国政府规制体制改革研究.北京:经济科学出版社,1999:76-79
[117]刘戒骄:垄断产业改革—基于网络视角的分析,北京:经济管理出版社,2005
[118]Jason Makansi.California's Eleetricity Crisis Rooted in Many Failings.IEEE Speetrum,2001,38(2)
[119]Mariia Ilic,Petter Skantze,Poonsaeng Visudhiphan.Electricity Troubles in California:Who's Next?IEEE Speetrum,2001,38(2)
[120]Barbara Klein.Munis Avert Total California Gloom.IEEE Speetrum,2001,38(2)
[121]王俊豪.中国政府管制体制改革研究.北京:经济科学出版社,1999:2
[122]国务院发展研究中心产经部.中国电力改革与可持续发展战略研究.2002:75-77
[123]于立宏,郁义鸿.需求波动下的煤电纵向关系安排与政府规制[J].管理世界,2006,(4).
[124]Gilbert R.J.,Riordan M.H.Regulating Complementary Products:A Comparative Institutional Analysis[J].RAND Journal of Economics,1995,(2).
[125]刘世锦.中国电力改革与可持续发展.北京:经济管理出版社.2003:20
[126]Knittel C.R.Regulatory Imperfections in the Electricity and Natural Gas Industries:Evidence from the Pricing and Investment Decisions of Single and Multi-product Electricity Firms[R].www.ucei.berkeley.edu/ucei,University of California Energy Institute,Working Paper,1999.
[127]Yanez J.A.F.Incentive Regulation in Vertically Related Industries:Welfare Effects of Industry Structure and Institutional Coordination[R].Working Paper,2002.
[128]林伯强.中国电力工业发展:改革进程与配套改革[J].管理世界,2005,(8).
[129]李文卿.电力工业与经济增长关系的定量研究[J].科技经济市场,2007,25(8):100-102
[130]樊纲,胡永泰.“循序渐进”还是“平行推进”——一论体制转轨最优路径的理论与政策[J].经济研究,2005,(1).
[131]王廷惠.微观规制理论研究—基于对正统理论的批判和将市场作为一个过程的理解.北京:中国社会科学出版社.2005:576-581
[132]刘纪鹏,电力改革输配分开谋定而后动.中国经济时报.2006年4月24
[133]王学庆.管制垄断—垄断性行业的政府管制.冲国水利水电出版社,2004:42-44
[134]王俊豪,周小梅.中国自然垄断产业民营化改革与政府管制政策.北京:经济管理出版社2004
[135]苏子微.政府与行业协会关系的错位与纠正.生产力研究.2005(1):96-97
[136]肖兴志.自然垄断产业规制改革模式研究,大连:东北财经大学出版社.2003:44
[137]于立,刘劲松.中国煤、电关系的产业组织分析[J].中国工业经济,2004,(9).
[138]MilesL.Burnett,Testing the state environmental protection Iiterature in a nonregulatory Policy arena implementation of Pollution Prevention Policy in Caliofrnia and Colorado,Th eSocial Science Journal 2002,39,333-347
[139]A.FMassardo,M.Santarelli,R.Borchiellini,Carbon exergy tax:its impact on conventional energy system design and its contribution to advanced systems utilization,Energy 2003.28,607-625
[140]宋守信,电力市场机制,中国电力出版社2002
[141]Sally Hunt,Making Competition Work in Electricity,Chinese(Simplified Character Only)Trade Paperback Copyright,2004
[142]曾鸣,孙昕,张启平,等.我国电力需求侧管理的激励机制及政策建议[J].电力需求侧管理,2003,5(2):3-6.
[143]麦卡锡·埃德加原作,贡光禹编译.英国竞争性电力环境中的需求侧管理[J].电力需求侧管理,2000,3:44-46.
[144]国家经贸委考察团.美国加拿大电力需求侧管理考察报告[J].电力需求侧管 理,2002,4(3):58-60.
[145]杨志荣.DSM演进历史的评析[J].中国能源,2003,(4):22-26.
[146]EIA.Electric Utility Demand Side Management 1999[R].Washington,DC:Energy Information Administration.2001.
[147]Kushler,M.and P.Witte.A Revised 50-State Status Report on Electric Restructuring and Public Benefits[R]..Washington,DC:American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.2001.
[148]Roger Peters,PEng,MEng and Maya Papineau,MSc.Demand Side Management Incentives in Canada[R].Ottawa:The Pembina Institute for Appropriate Develop ment,2004.
[149]lndEco report.Electricity demand side management and demand response in municipalities:workshop background paper[R],Toronto:the Clean Air Partnership,2004.
[150]许之敏.电力需求侧管理现状、问题及对策[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(4):3-4.
[151]The Allen Consulting Group Pty Ltd.The Energy Efficiency Gap-Market Failures and Policy Options[R],Melboume:the Business Council for Sustainable Energy,2004.
[152]丁伟,袁家海,胡兆光.基于用户价格响应和满意度的峰谷分时电价决策模型.电力系统自动化,2005,20:10-14
[153]杨笑.我国电力需求侧管理的激励机制及政策建议[J].中国科技信息,2005,(17):48.
[154]谢翠菊,孙新跃,周志伟.电力需求侧管理激励机制探讨[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(4):53-55.
[155]杨志荣,胡兆光,周伏秋,等.DSM的政府行动[J].电力需求侧管理,2002,4(1):1-4.
[156]段铷,张彩庆,刘爱芳.电力市场环境下需求侧管理的成本效益分析模型及优化[J].华东电力,2005,33(4):8-10.
[157]陈肖红,张彩庆,齐正平.DSM激励机制及其在我国的可行性[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(5):7-9.
[158]朱成章,徐任武.需求侧管理(DSM)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1999.1-2.
[159]周明,李庚银,倪以信.电力市场下电力需求侧管理实施机制初探[J].电网技术,2005,29(5):6-11.
[160]赵细康.引导绿色技术创新[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2006:90
[161]钟晖,王建峰.建立绿色技术创新机制[J].生态经济,2000(3):41-44
[162]Lyudmyla Maksymlv,Environmental accounting as an instrument of environmental management system in transitional economics.5tn international conference on ethics and environmental policies business styles and sustainable development,2003
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |