公交经济补偿与公共目标改善联动机制研究
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摘要
为了落实“公交优先”的政策,保证公交事业的社会目标和经济目标能够协调实现。研究根据我国城市可持续发展要求,在借鉴国外成熟的管理经验的基础上,首次提出了公交经济补偿与公共目标联动的政策主张,并通过理论研究和实际算例分析,最终形成双目标联动的理论基础和联动模型。
研究在对国内外相关文献进行回顾综述的基础上,总结了现行公交补贴的三个不足,即:公交补贴机制缺乏理论支持、缺乏公认的公交补贴计算方法、公交补贴完全依靠地方财政筹资,可能会影响到公交企业持续获得财政转移支付的可能。
针对上述问题,本文提出“公交经济补偿”概念,并以此替代公交补贴。在这一概念的基础上,本文以准公共产品理论及外部性理论作为理论基础,通过对分析公交票价的形成机制、居民支付意愿、公交需求量和公交品质评价标准等与公交经济补偿密切相关的因素的分析,形成了“公交经济补偿与公共目标改善联动机制”的理论框架。以上述联动机制理论框架为基础,本文选取北京市轨道交通系统作为研究样本,实证研究了双目标联动的实践方案,形成了理论基础较好、估计精确度更高、计算更为简便的实证分析模型。
其中,理论研究部分,本文首先根据公共交通的准公共产品属性和次优定价理论,从理论上再次确认在现发展阶段,低票价原则应该作为城市公交票价的基本定价原则,据此,就需要相应的财政转移支付予以支撑。
其次,运用或有价值估计方法,分析了居民公交出行支付意愿,并以北京市为例,估算了公交系统可能的票款收入水平。
再次,在分析影响居民公共交通服务需求各重要变量的基础上,运用双指数平滑法,建立了多种公共交通服务需求量的预测方法。并在实测数据的基础上,对北京市的公共交通服务需求数量进行了预测。
最后,将城市公交的参与主体划分为城市居民、公交经营者、交通代理机构(政府主管部门)和城市政府四类主体,以环境因素和拥堵影响因素为评价重点,构建了系统的城市公交运行效率评价指标体系。
在实际算例部分,研究针对北京市地铁出行的现状特点,以现场调查数据为基础,利用TRANSCAD,构建了以环境贡献和拥堵缓解贡献为测算基础的北京市轨道交通系统双目标联动机制计量模型。
研究首先测算了北京市人均轨道交通出行距离。这一人均出行距离是在轨道交通站点间最优距离矩阵和轨道交通发生吸引量矩阵的基础上测算得到的。其中,以北京市轨道交通系统的GIS基础信息为数据基础,形成了北京市轨交系统最优的距离矩阵;以北京市轨道交通系统2005年的样本调查数据为数据基础,形成了北京市轨道交通发生吸引量矩阵。
其次,根据人均轨道交通出行距离,构建了以轨交路面替代里程和轨交路面交通替代量为代表的“轨交路面替代率”测算方法,并仿真测算了2008-2015年期间的轨交路面交通综合替代率。研究以轨交路面替代里程为基础,建立了北京市轨道交通系统环境减排正外部性贡献测算方法。以轨交路面交通替代量为基础,建立了北京市轨道交通系统拥堵缓解正外部性贡献测算方法。
再次,在完成公交经济补偿与公共目标改善双目标联动机制数据基础、分析方法的基础上,建立了轨道交通正外部性贡献计量模型,并估算了北京市轨道交通系统预期外部性贡献值。
最后,结合北京市经济社会发展现状,估计了基于正外部性贡献的北京市轨道交通经济补偿合理区间。仿真结果表明,在2008-2015年期间,北京市轨道交通系统的正外部性贡献区间为2.5-35.9亿元,相应的财政补偿区间为2.9-42.9亿元。
In order to implement the policy of "Public Transport Priority", local government must take measures of Mass Transits Compensation to ensure social and economic objectives being fulfilled simultaneously. According to this goal, we put forward the study of interactive mechanism between mass transits compensation and public objectives improving.
This paper attempts to analyze the implementation and interconnected relation between the dual objectives of urban public transport in achieving social and economic efficiency from both the macro and micro aspects. Further more, we will demonstrate the necessity, probability and operability of "Public Transport Priority" principle by combining theory and experiment.
In this paper, we focus on the interactive mechanism, whose main theoretical foundations include: sustainable economic and social development theory; externality theory of public economics; secondary allocation theory of public finance. The paper discusses the problem of optimal urban public transportation fare and estimates the willingness to pay for the public transportation by the method of Contigent Value Method. We analyze the actual variation of urban transportation demands in Beijing and establish the optimal efficiency estimation system of urban public transportation.
By the theoretical studies, we improve the definition of applicable public goods, urban public transportation and its externality contribution feature. Based on the empirical research on the interactive mechanism model, we established the mathematical model of quantifiable public transportation externality. We take the urban transportation as a sample to calculate the result of public transportation economic compensation. The achievements have greatly strengthened the possibility of public transportation economic compensation by government.
The main process of the study goes as follows:
Firstly, the quasi-public goods theory and externality theory form our main theoretical basis. The supporting theoretical systems are constructed by estimating the formation mechanism of public transport fares, residents’willingness to pay, the quantity of public transit demand, and establishing mass transit evaluation criteria.
Secondly, on the base of empirical investigation into Beijing subway passengers and related survey data, we used TransCAD to forming the basic data, analyzing methods and basic conclusions to support further study on the interactive mechanism between mass transits compensation and public objectives improving. On the above basis, we established the measurement model to calculate the externalities contribution derived from Mass Transits system.
Finally, combining the economic and social development of Beijing, we formulate the estimation of the appropriate compensation interval.
The paper’s study routine and results are of universality and demonstration meaning, which not only apply to mass transit system, such as road traffic and rail traffic, but also to other forms of public goods and quasi-public goods.
研究在对国内外相关文献进行回顾综述的基础上,总结了现行公交补贴的三个不足,即:公交补贴机制缺乏理论支持、缺乏公认的公交补贴计算方法、公交补贴完全依靠地方财政筹资,可能会影响到公交企业持续获得财政转移支付的可能。
针对上述问题,本文提出“公交经济补偿”概念,并以此替代公交补贴。在这一概念的基础上,本文以准公共产品理论及外部性理论作为理论基础,通过对分析公交票价的形成机制、居民支付意愿、公交需求量和公交品质评价标准等与公交经济补偿密切相关的因素的分析,形成了“公交经济补偿与公共目标改善联动机制”的理论框架。以上述联动机制理论框架为基础,本文选取北京市轨道交通系统作为研究样本,实证研究了双目标联动的实践方案,形成了理论基础较好、估计精确度更高、计算更为简便的实证分析模型。
其中,理论研究部分,本文首先根据公共交通的准公共产品属性和次优定价理论,从理论上再次确认在现发展阶段,低票价原则应该作为城市公交票价的基本定价原则,据此,就需要相应的财政转移支付予以支撑。
其次,运用或有价值估计方法,分析了居民公交出行支付意愿,并以北京市为例,估算了公交系统可能的票款收入水平。
再次,在分析影响居民公共交通服务需求各重要变量的基础上,运用双指数平滑法,建立了多种公共交通服务需求量的预测方法。并在实测数据的基础上,对北京市的公共交通服务需求数量进行了预测。
最后,将城市公交的参与主体划分为城市居民、公交经营者、交通代理机构(政府主管部门)和城市政府四类主体,以环境因素和拥堵影响因素为评价重点,构建了系统的城市公交运行效率评价指标体系。
在实际算例部分,研究针对北京市地铁出行的现状特点,以现场调查数据为基础,利用TRANSCAD,构建了以环境贡献和拥堵缓解贡献为测算基础的北京市轨道交通系统双目标联动机制计量模型。
研究首先测算了北京市人均轨道交通出行距离。这一人均出行距离是在轨道交通站点间最优距离矩阵和轨道交通发生吸引量矩阵的基础上测算得到的。其中,以北京市轨道交通系统的GIS基础信息为数据基础,形成了北京市轨交系统最优的距离矩阵;以北京市轨道交通系统2005年的样本调查数据为数据基础,形成了北京市轨道交通发生吸引量矩阵。
其次,根据人均轨道交通出行距离,构建了以轨交路面替代里程和轨交路面交通替代量为代表的“轨交路面替代率”测算方法,并仿真测算了2008-2015年期间的轨交路面交通综合替代率。研究以轨交路面替代里程为基础,建立了北京市轨道交通系统环境减排正外部性贡献测算方法。以轨交路面交通替代量为基础,建立了北京市轨道交通系统拥堵缓解正外部性贡献测算方法。
再次,在完成公交经济补偿与公共目标改善双目标联动机制数据基础、分析方法的基础上,建立了轨道交通正外部性贡献计量模型,并估算了北京市轨道交通系统预期外部性贡献值。
最后,结合北京市经济社会发展现状,估计了基于正外部性贡献的北京市轨道交通经济补偿合理区间。仿真结果表明,在2008-2015年期间,北京市轨道交通系统的正外部性贡献区间为2.5-35.9亿元,相应的财政补偿区间为2.9-42.9亿元。
In order to implement the policy of "Public Transport Priority", local government must take measures of Mass Transits Compensation to ensure social and economic objectives being fulfilled simultaneously. According to this goal, we put forward the study of interactive mechanism between mass transits compensation and public objectives improving.
This paper attempts to analyze the implementation and interconnected relation between the dual objectives of urban public transport in achieving social and economic efficiency from both the macro and micro aspects. Further more, we will demonstrate the necessity, probability and operability of "Public Transport Priority" principle by combining theory and experiment.
In this paper, we focus on the interactive mechanism, whose main theoretical foundations include: sustainable economic and social development theory; externality theory of public economics; secondary allocation theory of public finance. The paper discusses the problem of optimal urban public transportation fare and estimates the willingness to pay for the public transportation by the method of Contigent Value Method. We analyze the actual variation of urban transportation demands in Beijing and establish the optimal efficiency estimation system of urban public transportation.
By the theoretical studies, we improve the definition of applicable public goods, urban public transportation and its externality contribution feature. Based on the empirical research on the interactive mechanism model, we established the mathematical model of quantifiable public transportation externality. We take the urban transportation as a sample to calculate the result of public transportation economic compensation. The achievements have greatly strengthened the possibility of public transportation economic compensation by government.
The main process of the study goes as follows:
Firstly, the quasi-public goods theory and externality theory form our main theoretical basis. The supporting theoretical systems are constructed by estimating the formation mechanism of public transport fares, residents’willingness to pay, the quantity of public transit demand, and establishing mass transit evaluation criteria.
Secondly, on the base of empirical investigation into Beijing subway passengers and related survey data, we used TransCAD to forming the basic data, analyzing methods and basic conclusions to support further study on the interactive mechanism between mass transits compensation and public objectives improving. On the above basis, we established the measurement model to calculate the externalities contribution derived from Mass Transits system.
Finally, combining the economic and social development of Beijing, we formulate the estimation of the appropriate compensation interval.
The paper’s study routine and results are of universality and demonstration meaning, which not only apply to mass transit system, such as road traffic and rail traffic, but also to other forms of public goods and quasi-public goods.
引文
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103 A. Lyndsey. Transport Statistics Great Britain 2006 Edition[DB/OL]. http://www.dft.gov.uk
104 S. G. Stradling, et.al., Performance, importance and user disgruntlement: A six-step method for measuring satisfaction with travel modes[J]. Transportation Research Part A 41,2007:98-106
105 M. Flonneau. City infrastructures and city dwellers:Accommodating the automobile in twentieth-century Paris[J]. Journal of Transport History, 2006.27(1):93-114
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