我国银行业结构：竞争与效率的实证研究
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摘要
鉴于银行业在实现储蓄向投资转化中的重要性,本文侧重从竞争性和效率之间的联系出发对我国银行业结构展开研究。由于我国银行业处于发展和变革阶段,该研究对于推进我国银行业健康发展的政策选择具有重要现实意义。
本文在深入考察我国银行业发展变迁过程的基础上,基于五方面对我国银行业进行了特征分析。利用银行业结构、竞争与效率三者之间内在关联性理论,区分并相互联系地考察了银行的微观效率和宏观效率。利用非结构法中的PR模型、非参数DEA方法等定量研究手段,对我国银行业的总体竞争性进行了测度,并分析了银行业竞争性变化的趋势特征;对我国银行业的效率变迁及趋势进行了分析;最后,实证检验了我国银行业结构、竞争性与效率之间的动态关联性。
研究发现,我国银行业的集中并不损害竞争,银行业的竞争对银行的成本效率、配置效率具有显著正向影响,这些结论对我国银行业的下一步发展具有理论指导意义。
The financial system structure can be divided into two basic types and they are market-oriented type and intermediate-based type. It is generally accepted that China’s financial system belongs to the latter one. Reform of China’s financial system is focusing on banking industry. Currently, the Banks have made conversion from“large unified”which was operated at the beginning of the reform to the central bank as the core, the state-owned commercial Banks as the main body, the policy Banks and joint-stock Banks, urban commercial Banks and other types of banking institutions diversification joint competition pattern.
With China's banking structure changing, the current obvious problems faced by banking industry are not property rights, but the structure of banking industry. According to the traditional industrial organization theory, the concentration of banking industry will harm competition, while competition can ensure cost minimize. But if the bank gets monopoly power, the bank will ask for a higher price loan and at the same time pay lower price deposits, which may distort savings and investment decisions. Finally, lacking of competition will lead to inefficient banks in the framework of operation. So, this traditional view has been a lot of new challenges to meet. In practice, typical facts tell that the development of the banking industry in different countries to choose the path in the past is also quite different.
First of all, this paper makes a realistic inspection the change of structure of China's banking industry and believes that the reform of China’s banking industry has distinctive characteristics of stage and keeps up with the pace of economic restructuring. Then, the author makes a comparison between characteristics China's banking industry and international one from five aspects, that is, the property right structure, market concentration, unit banking system, industrial barriers and competitions. Based on previous researches, the author uses the model of structure and analyses it from four aspects, competition and efficiency analysis of the relationship between the bank customers: from the aspect of the banking industry, the optimal number of institutions, From the Angle of potential entrants, banking number (concentration) and competition, From the perspective of efficiency and stability, the number of Banks (concentration) and competition is analyzed, A single bank branch bank banking structure with the efficiency were compared. The conclusion of traditional model does not support industrial organization theory.
After discussing structure of banking competitive measure and the structure method, the author selects the heaviest share top 14 Banks of China's banking from 1996 to 2007 as the sample data to analyze and measure structure features and trend of Chinese banking changes by using structural and the non-structural panel data PR model of China's banking. From overall competitiveness of China's banking industry from 1996 to 2007, monopolistic competition is found. According to China's banking development characteristics and the availability of data, the author establishes the annual competitive measure of China's banking PR model in order to examine our banking structure and the dynamic relationship. 1996-2007 competition level changes and trends are analyzed. Based on impulse response to changes in the structure of China's banking industry method, the author explores the influence, but the results do not support the traditional view that is centralized beneath competition.
After illuminating the connotation of efficiency, the paper introduces the development of the method of measurement efficiency, and focuses on the non-parameters of DEA method and the decomposition of bank efficiency. By using DEA method, the paper measures technical efficiency, allocation efficiency, and cost efficiency of Chinese banking industry during the period 1996-2007, analyzes the efficiency changes and the development trend and then comparatively analyzes the efficiency of state-owned banks and the joint-stock banks. The conclusion is that their technical efficiency at the same level, but the allocation efficiency and cost efficiency of the joint-stock banks are higher than the state-owned banks'. Then, based on the previous empirical results, firstly using the coefficient matrix briefly analyzes the relationship of the structure of banking, competition and efficiency .secondly, it analyzes their relationship by modeling, concluding that China’s banking structure change of banking efficiency is uncertain and to improve the competitive banking allocation efficiency and cost efficiency. Then, impulse response function is applied to analyze the dynamic relationship of China’s banking structure, competition. The conclusion shows that the changes of Chinese banking structure have a weaker influence on efficiency, and uncertainty, and the banking competition significantly promotes banking cost efficiency and allocation efficiency, but the impact of technical efficiency is uncertain.
This paper presents the main conclusions are as follows:
First, through the analysis of China's financial system and international comparison, China financial system belongs to the typical intermediate-based financial system. Commercial Bank in China is an important component of the banking financial institutions. China's banking reforms have distinct phases and keep up with the pace of economic restructuring. This reflects the banking reform goal orientation namely serves in economic development, at the same time embodies the characteristics of gradual banking reforms. At present, Chinese banking structure features embodied in: State-controlled diversified ownership structure, high concentration and big bank equality, branch banking system, strict industry barriers and selective competition.
Second, the empirical research on China's banking market structure analysis judgment made by China banking market structure, based on structural and the non-structural method (PR) for our banking market structure. The CR4 indicator, the net assets and fixed assets of China's banking, which exist decreases of the total assets reflect that the state-owned banks with the perfect property right system reform and the four major state banks significantly improved the management level and operational level. China's banking industry has been changing from oligopoly highly concentrated oligopoly higher type; the degree of oligopoly market structure has been weakened. From the overall trend, the market structure of China's banking industry overall trend is to develop in the direction of decentralization.
The total assets, the net assets and fixed assets of China's banking and the HHI indicator which have obvious trend of fall down and China's banking industry deposits, loans and profits HHI indicators have slowly downward trend, while interest income HHI indicators stay at a relatively high level. Based on the total assets HHI indicators dividing standard, our country has changed from high to low oligopoly type, even changed to a lower trend of oligopoly. A net profit of HHI and HHI indicators of changes in interest income reflected in the four major state-owned banks inconsistent early profits ability led to a low HHI index, followed by higher net profit of HHI indicators with state-owned commercial banks of China's listing.
Third, empirical study based on the non-structural method was made on China’s banking industry. The estimation results of PR model show that China's banking is in monopolistic competition and the competition between the four major state-owned Banks above all banking competition. The result is caused by China's four major state-owned Banks, and the size of the extensive branch, the four major state-owned Banks in various levels of competition between the agencies, resulting in more competitive. Through the dynamic analysis of Chinese banking industry competition in banking, competitive before 2000 has rise trend in the competitive banking increases.
Another important result is that funding and returns significantly positive correlation reflects the income of China's banking industry rely heavily on traditional deposit. Deposit interest income has the significant effects on the bank and revenues of human investment banking also have significantly influence while the investment of Banking has a weaker effect. The result may be due to the state-owned Banks changing from the planned economy to the major Banks under the market economy system of commercial Banks.
The empirical results show that the concentration of banking industry structure does not repel the competitiveness of Chinese banking, cannot simply tie the concentration and the competitiveness together also does not support the traditional model of industrial organization theory.
Fourth, through making the definition of the efficiency of banks as well as the decomposition and based on the study of DEA method efficiency of China's banking industry, the results show that Chinese banking industry generally does not focus on the operating costs of control or can not effectively control the costs of the industry cost-effective low. In our country, under the current banking system, a large number of government credit background through administrative system rather than the bank come into the market mechanism which result in the reduction of allocation efficiency. China's banking sector efficiency and cost-effective configuration showed an upward trend, but although technical efficiency has been high, but the characteristics of the downward trend.
The comparative analysis of the efficiency of state-owned Banks with the joint-stock Banks’shows that State-owned banks and joint-stock banks have overall level of technical efficiency, but allocation efficiency of joint-stock banks are significantly higher than the allocation efficiency of state-owned banks. The two gradually widened the gap between the trend of cost-effectiveness of joint-stock banks were also higher than the cost-effectiveness of state-owned banks and both are weak upward trend.
Last, the empirical results of the dynamic relationship among banking structure, competition and efficiency show that the changes of Chinese banking structure have a weaker influence on the efficiency, either technical efficiency, allocation efficiency, or cost efficiency. So, the author didn't support traditional industrial organization theory that increase of concentration will lead to the loss of banking efficiency. However, the response of banking efficiency to competition is obvious, aside from the fluctuating of the response of technical efficiency. The improvement of banking competition has an observably positive impact on the cost efficiency and the allocation efficiency, the improvement of the competition will significantly promote cost efficiency and the allocation efficiency, and then to improve the overall efficiency of banking industry. This conclusion also supports that the traditional economics theory“fierce competition will promote economic efficiency”.
本文在深入考察我国银行业发展变迁过程的基础上,基于五方面对我国银行业进行了特征分析。利用银行业结构、竞争与效率三者之间内在关联性理论,区分并相互联系地考察了银行的微观效率和宏观效率。利用非结构法中的PR模型、非参数DEA方法等定量研究手段,对我国银行业的总体竞争性进行了测度,并分析了银行业竞争性变化的趋势特征;对我国银行业的效率变迁及趋势进行了分析;最后,实证检验了我国银行业结构、竞争性与效率之间的动态关联性。
研究发现,我国银行业的集中并不损害竞争,银行业的竞争对银行的成本效率、配置效率具有显著正向影响,这些结论对我国银行业的下一步发展具有理论指导意义。
The financial system structure can be divided into two basic types and they are market-oriented type and intermediate-based type. It is generally accepted that China’s financial system belongs to the latter one. Reform of China’s financial system is focusing on banking industry. Currently, the Banks have made conversion from“large unified”which was operated at the beginning of the reform to the central bank as the core, the state-owned commercial Banks as the main body, the policy Banks and joint-stock Banks, urban commercial Banks and other types of banking institutions diversification joint competition pattern.
With China's banking structure changing, the current obvious problems faced by banking industry are not property rights, but the structure of banking industry. According to the traditional industrial organization theory, the concentration of banking industry will harm competition, while competition can ensure cost minimize. But if the bank gets monopoly power, the bank will ask for a higher price loan and at the same time pay lower price deposits, which may distort savings and investment decisions. Finally, lacking of competition will lead to inefficient banks in the framework of operation. So, this traditional view has been a lot of new challenges to meet. In practice, typical facts tell that the development of the banking industry in different countries to choose the path in the past is also quite different.
First of all, this paper makes a realistic inspection the change of structure of China's banking industry and believes that the reform of China’s banking industry has distinctive characteristics of stage and keeps up with the pace of economic restructuring. Then, the author makes a comparison between characteristics China's banking industry and international one from five aspects, that is, the property right structure, market concentration, unit banking system, industrial barriers and competitions. Based on previous researches, the author uses the model of structure and analyses it from four aspects, competition and efficiency analysis of the relationship between the bank customers: from the aspect of the banking industry, the optimal number of institutions, From the Angle of potential entrants, banking number (concentration) and competition, From the perspective of efficiency and stability, the number of Banks (concentration) and competition is analyzed, A single bank branch bank banking structure with the efficiency were compared. The conclusion of traditional model does not support industrial organization theory.
After discussing structure of banking competitive measure and the structure method, the author selects the heaviest share top 14 Banks of China's banking from 1996 to 2007 as the sample data to analyze and measure structure features and trend of Chinese banking changes by using structural and the non-structural panel data PR model of China's banking. From overall competitiveness of China's banking industry from 1996 to 2007, monopolistic competition is found. According to China's banking development characteristics and the availability of data, the author establishes the annual competitive measure of China's banking PR model in order to examine our banking structure and the dynamic relationship. 1996-2007 competition level changes and trends are analyzed. Based on impulse response to changes in the structure of China's banking industry method, the author explores the influence, but the results do not support the traditional view that is centralized beneath competition.
After illuminating the connotation of efficiency, the paper introduces the development of the method of measurement efficiency, and focuses on the non-parameters of DEA method and the decomposition of bank efficiency. By using DEA method, the paper measures technical efficiency, allocation efficiency, and cost efficiency of Chinese banking industry during the period 1996-2007, analyzes the efficiency changes and the development trend and then comparatively analyzes the efficiency of state-owned banks and the joint-stock banks. The conclusion is that their technical efficiency at the same level, but the allocation efficiency and cost efficiency of the joint-stock banks are higher than the state-owned banks'. Then, based on the previous empirical results, firstly using the coefficient matrix briefly analyzes the relationship of the structure of banking, competition and efficiency .secondly, it analyzes their relationship by modeling, concluding that China’s banking structure change of banking efficiency is uncertain and to improve the competitive banking allocation efficiency and cost efficiency. Then, impulse response function is applied to analyze the dynamic relationship of China’s banking structure, competition. The conclusion shows that the changes of Chinese banking structure have a weaker influence on efficiency, and uncertainty, and the banking competition significantly promotes banking cost efficiency and allocation efficiency, but the impact of technical efficiency is uncertain.
This paper presents the main conclusions are as follows:
First, through the analysis of China's financial system and international comparison, China financial system belongs to the typical intermediate-based financial system. Commercial Bank in China is an important component of the banking financial institutions. China's banking reforms have distinct phases and keep up with the pace of economic restructuring. This reflects the banking reform goal orientation namely serves in economic development, at the same time embodies the characteristics of gradual banking reforms. At present, Chinese banking structure features embodied in: State-controlled diversified ownership structure, high concentration and big bank equality, branch banking system, strict industry barriers and selective competition.
Second, the empirical research on China's banking market structure analysis judgment made by China banking market structure, based on structural and the non-structural method (PR) for our banking market structure. The CR4 indicator, the net assets and fixed assets of China's banking, which exist decreases of the total assets reflect that the state-owned banks with the perfect property right system reform and the four major state banks significantly improved the management level and operational level. China's banking industry has been changing from oligopoly highly concentrated oligopoly higher type; the degree of oligopoly market structure has been weakened. From the overall trend, the market structure of China's banking industry overall trend is to develop in the direction of decentralization.
The total assets, the net assets and fixed assets of China's banking and the HHI indicator which have obvious trend of fall down and China's banking industry deposits, loans and profits HHI indicators have slowly downward trend, while interest income HHI indicators stay at a relatively high level. Based on the total assets HHI indicators dividing standard, our country has changed from high to low oligopoly type, even changed to a lower trend of oligopoly. A net profit of HHI and HHI indicators of changes in interest income reflected in the four major state-owned banks inconsistent early profits ability led to a low HHI index, followed by higher net profit of HHI indicators with state-owned commercial banks of China's listing.
Third, empirical study based on the non-structural method was made on China’s banking industry. The estimation results of PR model show that China's banking is in monopolistic competition and the competition between the four major state-owned Banks above all banking competition. The result is caused by China's four major state-owned Banks, and the size of the extensive branch, the four major state-owned Banks in various levels of competition between the agencies, resulting in more competitive. Through the dynamic analysis of Chinese banking industry competition in banking, competitive before 2000 has rise trend in the competitive banking increases.
Another important result is that funding and returns significantly positive correlation reflects the income of China's banking industry rely heavily on traditional deposit. Deposit interest income has the significant effects on the bank and revenues of human investment banking also have significantly influence while the investment of Banking has a weaker effect. The result may be due to the state-owned Banks changing from the planned economy to the major Banks under the market economy system of commercial Banks.
The empirical results show that the concentration of banking industry structure does not repel the competitiveness of Chinese banking, cannot simply tie the concentration and the competitiveness together also does not support the traditional model of industrial organization theory.
Fourth, through making the definition of the efficiency of banks as well as the decomposition and based on the study of DEA method efficiency of China's banking industry, the results show that Chinese banking industry generally does not focus on the operating costs of control or can not effectively control the costs of the industry cost-effective low. In our country, under the current banking system, a large number of government credit background through administrative system rather than the bank come into the market mechanism which result in the reduction of allocation efficiency. China's banking sector efficiency and cost-effective configuration showed an upward trend, but although technical efficiency has been high, but the characteristics of the downward trend.
The comparative analysis of the efficiency of state-owned Banks with the joint-stock Banks’shows that State-owned banks and joint-stock banks have overall level of technical efficiency, but allocation efficiency of joint-stock banks are significantly higher than the allocation efficiency of state-owned banks. The two gradually widened the gap between the trend of cost-effectiveness of joint-stock banks were also higher than the cost-effectiveness of state-owned banks and both are weak upward trend.
Last, the empirical results of the dynamic relationship among banking structure, competition and efficiency show that the changes of Chinese banking structure have a weaker influence on the efficiency, either technical efficiency, allocation efficiency, or cost efficiency. So, the author didn't support traditional industrial organization theory that increase of concentration will lead to the loss of banking efficiency. However, the response of banking efficiency to competition is obvious, aside from the fluctuating of the response of technical efficiency. The improvement of banking competition has an observably positive impact on the cost efficiency and the allocation efficiency, the improvement of the competition will significantly promote cost efficiency and the allocation efficiency, and then to improve the overall efficiency of banking industry. This conclusion also supports that the traditional economics theory“fierce competition will promote economic efficiency”.
引文
①1939年,梅森的著作《大企业的生产价格政策》一书出版,大体阐述了产业组织的体系及研究方向;1959年,贝恩的《产业组织》一书出版,标志着SCP分析范式的建立。
②Joe S. Bain,“Relation of Profit Rate to Industry Concentration: American Manufacturing 1936-1940.”Quartely Journale of Economics, 1951, Vol. 65, No. 3: pp.293-324.
①李志辉、国娇:《中国银行业改革发展的逻辑机理》,《中国金融》,2009年第1期。
①威廉?哈勒根、张军:《转轨国家的初始条件、改革速度与经济增长》,《经济研究》,1999年第10期。
②樊纲、胡永泰:《“循序渐进”还是“平行推进”?——论体制转轨最优路径的理论与政策》,《经济研究》,2005年第1期。
③李志辉、国娇:《中国银行业改革发展的逻辑机理》,《中国金融》,2009年第1期。
①李志辉、国娇:《中国银行业改革发展的逻辑机理》,《中国金融》,2009年第1期。
②本部分数据来源:中国银行业监督管理委员会2007年报,公布日期,2008年4月。
艾伦、盖尔:《比较金融系统》,王晋斌等译,中国人民大学出版社,2003年。
①王鹤立:《我国金融混业经营前景研究》,《金融研究》,2008年第9期。
①宋玮:《论国有商业银行的产权制度改革与治理机制》,《南开经济研究》,2003年第4期。
②郭竞成、姚先国:《市场结构还是治理结构:两种银行改革思路之检讨和中国实证》,《国际金融研究》,2004年第2期。
①罗纳德?麦金农:《经济发展中的货币与资本》,上海三联书店,1997年。
②王国松:《中国的利率管制与利率市场化》,《经济研究》,2001年第6期。
①转引自艾伦和盖尔著:《比较金融系统》,王晋斌等译,中国人民大学出版社,2002年,第171页。
①泰勒尔:《产业组织理论》,张维迎总校译,中国人民大学出版社,1997年,第2篇。
①Martin S,2002,“The Theory of Contestable Markets,”Supplement for the book: Advanced Industrial Economics, Second edition, Blackwell Publishers, 2001,Purdue University.
①William J. Baumol and Robert D. Willig,“Fixed Costs, Sunk Costs, Entry Barriers, and Sustainability of Monopoly,”The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 96, No. 3 (Aug., 1981), pp. 405-431.
②对于沉没成本与进入壁垒、可竞争性的动态模型,可参考泰勒尔:《产业组织理论》,张维迎总校译,中国人民大学出版社,1997年,第411-415页。
①Gale, D: Branch Banking, Unitary Banking, and Competition, Department of Economics, Boston University, Boston, MA, mimeograph, 1993.
①Paul S. Calem and Leonard I. Nakamura, Branch Banking and the Geography of Bank Pricing , The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 80, No. 4 (Nov., 1998), pp. 600-610.
①Paul S. Calem and Leonard I. Nakamura, Branch Banking and the Geography of Bank Pricing , The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 80, No. 4 (Nov., 1998), pp. 600-610.
①也称作BR模型,后经Bresnahan(1989)年扩展。
②牛晓帆,《产业组织理论及相关问题研究》,中国经济出版社,2004年11月第1版,第31页。
①比如Shaffer(1989), Nathan & Neave(1989),De Bandt & Davis(2000),Bikker & Haaf (2002),Casu & Girardone (2006)。
①萨缪尔森(美),《经济学》,高鸿业等译,中国发展出版社,1992年3月第12版,第45页。
②樊纲,《公有制宏观经济理论大纲》,上海人民出版社,1994年11月新1版,第291页。
①魏权龄,《数据包络分析》,科学出版社,2004年8月第1版。
①样本银行具体每年的效率指标见本章附表5-1,附表5-2,附表5-3,附表5-4。
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①李志辉、国娇:《中国银行业改革发展的逻辑机理》,《中国金融》,2009年第1期。
①威廉?哈勒根、张军:《转轨国家的初始条件、改革速度与经济增长》,《经济研究》,1999年第10期。
②樊纲、胡永泰:《“循序渐进”还是“平行推进”?——论体制转轨最优路径的理论与政策》,《经济研究》,2005年第1期。
③李志辉、国娇:《中国银行业改革发展的逻辑机理》,《中国金融》,2009年第1期。
①李志辉、国娇:《中国银行业改革发展的逻辑机理》,《中国金融》,2009年第1期。
②本部分数据来源:中国银行业监督管理委员会2007年报,公布日期,2008年4月。
艾伦、盖尔:《比较金融系统》,王晋斌等译,中国人民大学出版社,2003年。
①王鹤立:《我国金融混业经营前景研究》,《金融研究》,2008年第9期。
①宋玮:《论国有商业银行的产权制度改革与治理机制》,《南开经济研究》,2003年第4期。
②郭竞成、姚先国:《市场结构还是治理结构:两种银行改革思路之检讨和中国实证》,《国际金融研究》,2004年第2期。
①罗纳德?麦金农:《经济发展中的货币与资本》,上海三联书店,1997年。
②王国松:《中国的利率管制与利率市场化》,《经济研究》,2001年第6期。
①转引自艾伦和盖尔著:《比较金融系统》,王晋斌等译,中国人民大学出版社,2002年,第171页。
①泰勒尔:《产业组织理论》,张维迎总校译,中国人民大学出版社,1997年,第2篇。
①Martin S,2002,“The Theory of Contestable Markets,”Supplement for the book: Advanced Industrial Economics, Second edition, Blackwell Publishers, 2001,Purdue University.
①William J. Baumol and Robert D. Willig,“Fixed Costs, Sunk Costs, Entry Barriers, and Sustainability of Monopoly,”The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 96, No. 3 (Aug., 1981), pp. 405-431.
②对于沉没成本与进入壁垒、可竞争性的动态模型,可参考泰勒尔:《产业组织理论》,张维迎总校译,中国人民大学出版社,1997年,第411-415页。
①Gale, D: Branch Banking, Unitary Banking, and Competition, Department of Economics, Boston University, Boston, MA, mimeograph, 1993.
①Paul S. Calem and Leonard I. Nakamura, Branch Banking and the Geography of Bank Pricing , The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 80, No. 4 (Nov., 1998), pp. 600-610.
①Paul S. Calem and Leonard I. Nakamura, Branch Banking and the Geography of Bank Pricing , The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 80, No. 4 (Nov., 1998), pp. 600-610.
①也称作BR模型,后经Bresnahan(1989)年扩展。
②牛晓帆,《产业组织理论及相关问题研究》,中国经济出版社,2004年11月第1版,第31页。
①比如Shaffer(1989), Nathan & Neave(1989),De Bandt & Davis(2000),Bikker & Haaf (2002),Casu & Girardone (2006)。
①萨缪尔森(美),《经济学》,高鸿业等译,中国发展出版社,1992年3月第12版,第45页。
②樊纲,《公有制宏观经济理论大纲》,上海人民出版社,1994年11月新1版,第291页。
①魏权龄,《数据包络分析》,科学出版社,2004年8月第1版。
①样本银行具体每年的效率指标见本章附表5-1,附表5-2,附表5-3,附表5-4。
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