技术创新机制的系统分析
摘要
本文首先分析了技术创新机制研究的重要性。归纳了运行机制的系统科学原理,说明了机制作用的方向、机制作用的过程和机制作用的限度。
论文总结了复杂适应系统的核心思想、基本原理、特点、基本研究方法、基本模型,对其复杂适应性进行描述后,概括了复杂适应系统理论的贡献。说明技术创新系统是复杂适应系统,并且对技术创新系统的复杂适应过程给予数学描述。
论文对基于主体的计算经济学概况进行说明,对主体、仿真以及基于主体的仿真等方面的内容做出总结、概括。其中,重点说明了基于主体仿真的概念、特点、步骤及其与基于数学方程仿真的区别,举例说明了基于主体的仿真在经济领域的应用。
论文以复杂适应系统理论为基础,运用基于主体的仿真方法构建了技术创新系统的整体模型——TISSM。主要阐述了模型的环境、模型的主体、模型环境与主体的作用规则、模型仿真界面和运行过程,并概括了TISSM的特点。
论文运用系统论的相关概念定义了企业技术创新动力机制、技术创新扩散机制、技术创新共生机制。并对影响上述各机制的要素间的相互关系和作用机理进行研究和阐述。然后在TISSM的基础上,构建并且运行基于主体的技术创新动力机制模型、基于主体的技术创新扩散机制模型、基于主体的技术创新共生机制模型,并且对各仿真模型的运行结果进行分析、解释。
The technological innovation mechanism reflects the stable rules inside the technological innovation system. Exploring effective technological innovation mechanism can be benefit to the following items: First, it enhances the integrity of the solving technological innovation question. Second, it helps to handle the relationship between the benefit of long-term and short-term to achieve the best result of social overall benefit. Third, it helps to grasp the rule from the source of system, solve problems during innovation process, to increase the innovation management effect. Last, it helps to increase the foresight of technological innovation rules and policies. Until now, many literatures have carried out a series of research on technological innovation mechanism, and have made certain progress from the technological innovation motive mechanism, the technological innovation diffusion mechanism and the technological innovation symbiosis mechanism and so on. But insufficiencies still remains, they are insufficient understanding to the complex degree of technological innovation question, as well as the limitation of former research techniques, as results of the above shortage, the non-linear effect relations in technological innovation process can not be reflected exactly.
The technological innovation which works as a route of the developing of technique and a process of human communicate to culture and social is consisted of factors and steps. The factors and steps reacted and contacted each other to compose an organism. Then we realized that there was an innovation system in the process of innovation. With the progressing knowledge on the complexity of technological innovation system, it needs to introduce complex science theory to promote technology innovation theory progression to contribute to the development of social and economics, and it needs to observe phenomena from technological innovation with systematic aspect and way to research on the technological innovation mechanism to enrich technological innovation research results.
The complex adaptive system (CAS) theory is one of the important research results of complex science. Its core thought is that adaptability makes complexity. The CAS theory inspires us to begin from the technological innovation system agents’general behaviors patterns such as accumulation, the coherence characteristic, the system emergence phenomenon as well as the relations between system and the environment, to research the mechanism of technological innovation system to develop macro strategies of the system. However, the research on technological innovation mechanism with CAS should not only be based on integer adhering and complexity adapting, but also break through traditional research techniques.
The agent-based simulation method emerged in the 1980s. It dose not understand the whole object from top to bottom, and then establish a block model. But it starts bottom to up to understand the major features of the objects, then abstracts the objects’the behavior rules, at last lets them interact in the computer simulation model. These behaviors maybe the direct relations between different agents’or indirect relations of many agents react under different environmental condition. The behavior results may be shown in this model, and give out emergence realizes in the computer experiment. Finally, researchers carry on the explanation based on the emergence phenomenon to explain the reality complicated system.
The merits of agent-based simulation are: breakthrough the limits by the model supposition of traditional techniques; the simulation form is nature, easy to obtain; base on the simulation of microscopic agents’attribute and behavior as the model foundation, emphasize the correlations between the microscopic agents; form the macroscopic phenomenon through the microscopic agents’behavior; introduces random factors. The shortcomings of agent-based simulation are lacks of confirmation condition and good reproducibility.
Agent-based modeling(ABM) is different from equation-based modeling(EBM). The differences between them are: the beginning of ABM is individual agent’s interactive behavior in the system, but not the relations between the observable attributes; it is from bottom to up. But EBM takes a group of mathematics equation as the beginning; it is from up to bottom. The ABM is more suitable in field of highly topicality and distributed feature, the rules in the field are individual decision process; the EBM is more suitable for concentrated field, its rules are physical laws but not information process.
In brief, the model established by ABM method has strong explanatory ability. Moreover, the modeler may also learn knowledge from the simulation. The technological innovation researches, which take the complex adaptive system theory as the foundation, and base on the agent-based simulation model method, will bring out a new domain of technological innovation research.
The technological innovation system simulation model (TISSM) is a multi-agent simulation model based on the REPAST. It simulates enterprises' daily operation under a region environment using the multi-agent simulation method. This region has certain amount enterprises, a policy formulation department and a market. Through TISSM the environment influence to the enterprise technological innovation behavior, as well as enterprises’responses to market competition and policy measures could be observed with established region market competition condition, policy condition, enterprise internal attribute, social environment and so on.
By the division of system function, TISSM is composed by three parts: the environment, the agents and the behavior rule set. TISSM’s simulation plan is to entrust the enterprise agent with certain initial fund and status attributes, distribute enterprise agents’position in model space randomly. The initial decision-making of enterprise agent occurs stochastically. Then, they decide their following behaviors according to their policy-making effect and the condition. Government and social culture work as environment in backside. In the model the enterprise agents can move in the region space, and interact with the environment and other agents. Statistical data of entire process are collected and output, which would be used to analysis the agents’behavior.
We can conduct material research to the technological innovation mechanism on the TISSM foundation. The technological innovation mechanism includes technological innovation motive mechanism, technological innovation diffusion mechanism , technological innovation symbiosis mechanism and conditional sub-mechanisms influenced each others under the above three mechanisms. In order to study the technological innovation mechanism, three mechanism models are built along with the above three mechanisms based on TISSM.
Technological innovation motive mechanism is the principles and institutes of influencing factors, which produces technological innovation behavior in technological innovation system. It is featured with the benefit, the activity, the overall relevance, openness, the cooperatives, the non-mutual recognition, the non-balanced state and the selective characteristic. The technological innovation motive mechanism played its role through the motive mechanism to decide function order and the weight of the factors, such as the market demand, the pressure of competition, the science and technology propelling, supporting power of government, entrepreneurial spirit, entrepreneur agent, enterprise culture and internal driving, which drive enterprise to engage in the technological innovation directly or the indirectly. Enterprise technological innovation ability is the foundation that guarantees the realizing of enterprise’s technological innovation activities. A reasonable technological innovation mechanism will stimulate enterprise's innovative activities unceasingly. It also stimulate the new technological innovation motive through affect in the market, the technology, the government, which causes enterprise's technological innovation activities can be continue.
Through the experimental running of agent-based technological innovation motive mechanism simulation model we realized: (1) If the enterprise has not received the strong pressure of competition, it will not carry on the technological innovation. (2) Compares with technological innovation's starting time and technology advancing speed: under the government mechanism under complete information condition, the starting time of technological innovation is short, the technical level enterprise achieves is highest. Under the marketing mechanism and marketing-government mechanism, the technological innovation started from the most advanced enterprise. The planned mechanism in insufficient information has lower technology advance speed and later innovation starting time. (3) To the distance of accumulated capital, the planned economy mechanism made bigger gap to the free competition mechanisms did. (4) As to the macro economics’influenced by technological innovation, under the specified condition, industry and region, the enterprises produce and develop faster along the complete plan mechanism with sufficient information. The enterprises were ease to obtain higher technical level, but as a result of the market limit, the competition was also more intense and the overall profit-to-investment ratio is low. Enterprises make higher profit rate in the planned mechanism in insufficient information due to enterprises took advance of the lower competition brought by the condition of closed market environment and a lower technological progression speed and production development speed to make higher surplus profit.
The technological innovation diffusion mechanism is the principles and institutes of the technological innovation achievement (product innovation or craft innovation) disseminate through certain channel among enterprises along with the time. Its characteristics are the influence, the systematic, the overflow and the succession. The technological innovation diffusion mechanism's operation way is: the profit induced power transformed from the intellectual property protection, attraction come from the fiscal levy preferential benefit, sustaining power come from government procurement, attraction come from market absorption capacity and pressure come from market competition, which is under function and the influence of environmental factor, turns to be the diffusion drive of technological innovation diffusing. Influenced by the enterprise innovation culture, entrepreneurs, the technical personnel and the general production worker will directly drive enterprise be engaged in the innovation. The enterprise’s technology basement finally safeguards the enterprise technological innovation diffusion activity to be able to carry on smoothly. The successful technological innovation diffusion reacts to the enterprise, the technology, the market and the government as to stimulate new technological innovation diffusion.
After the simulation experiment on the agent-based technological innovation diffusion mechanism model, concludes can be summarized as following: (1) Enterprise who take the lead in the technological innovation can obtain high excess profit, and along with the time development, its total assets accumulation quantity of these enterprises can enhance rapidly. (2) The technical leading enterprises take the lead to carry out the technological innovation; they may obtain more profits to form a positive cycle. They extended the disparity with the technical following enterprise gradually, and then the polarization on total assets is formed among them. (3) The diffuse of new technique of different generation shows accelerating. Dormant period and overlap period between the technology advancement stages is observed. (4) The technical leading enterprises obtained the benefit from the intellectual property protection. The intellectual property protection strengthened the superiority of technical leading enterprises. The backward enterprises obtain benefit from the technical diffusion. (5) Because the exiting of technological innovation diffusion, the technical leading enterprises cannot sustain their monopoly profit. They must be engaged in the technological innovation unceasingly. (6) Under the technical overflow effect's function, the above-mentioned activities will enable region’s overall technical level to upgrade, and then lead region’s entire technology to advance.
The technological innovation symbiosis mechanism is the inner linkage mechanism and the rules of enterprises forming the competition symbiosis relations in technological innovation system. The technological innovation symbiosis phenomenon is a self-organization occurrence produced in the technological innovation system. Enterprises’symbiosis process is a kind of self-organization procedure.
The technological innovation symbiosis mechanism functioned as an innovation power to help enterprises make mutual benefit, guarantee them to innovate smoothly with the goal of sharing of resources like material, energy and information. The power is consisted of power come from the communication and cooperation, the safeguard strength come from the enterprise prestige, and the guidance strength of enterprise’benefit. Successful technological symbiosis innovation will impel enterprises to seek the symbiosis development in a higher level.
Through the experience of agent-based technological innovation symbiosis mechanism simulation model, conclusions can be drawn as following: (1) In order to obtain resources and condition which the enterprises needs during their technological innovation process, the technological innovation enterprises tend to move gradually from dispersed state to congregate. But the enterprises may not close to be a combine; they may maintain certain distance between each other. (2) Under the condition of technological innovation symbiosis mechanism, the time gap between innovation starts period tends to be small. (3) Under the condition of technological innovation symbiosis mechanism, enterprise's fund accumulation level, enterprise's technological gap, enterprise's fund disparity is far greater than the situation without symbiosis mechanism. (4)The market competition (with technological innovation cooperation) is higher and earlier in the symbiosis mechanism than the situation without the mechanism. (5) The technological innovation symbiosis between enterprises will lead the increasing of society total assets in the region.
论文总结了复杂适应系统的核心思想、基本原理、特点、基本研究方法、基本模型,对其复杂适应性进行描述后,概括了复杂适应系统理论的贡献。说明技术创新系统是复杂适应系统,并且对技术创新系统的复杂适应过程给予数学描述。
论文对基于主体的计算经济学概况进行说明,对主体、仿真以及基于主体的仿真等方面的内容做出总结、概括。其中,重点说明了基于主体仿真的概念、特点、步骤及其与基于数学方程仿真的区别,举例说明了基于主体的仿真在经济领域的应用。
论文以复杂适应系统理论为基础,运用基于主体的仿真方法构建了技术创新系统的整体模型——TISSM。主要阐述了模型的环境、模型的主体、模型环境与主体的作用规则、模型仿真界面和运行过程,并概括了TISSM的特点。
论文运用系统论的相关概念定义了企业技术创新动力机制、技术创新扩散机制、技术创新共生机制。并对影响上述各机制的要素间的相互关系和作用机理进行研究和阐述。然后在TISSM的基础上,构建并且运行基于主体的技术创新动力机制模型、基于主体的技术创新扩散机制模型、基于主体的技术创新共生机制模型,并且对各仿真模型的运行结果进行分析、解释。
The technological innovation mechanism reflects the stable rules inside the technological innovation system. Exploring effective technological innovation mechanism can be benefit to the following items: First, it enhances the integrity of the solving technological innovation question. Second, it helps to handle the relationship between the benefit of long-term and short-term to achieve the best result of social overall benefit. Third, it helps to grasp the rule from the source of system, solve problems during innovation process, to increase the innovation management effect. Last, it helps to increase the foresight of technological innovation rules and policies. Until now, many literatures have carried out a series of research on technological innovation mechanism, and have made certain progress from the technological innovation motive mechanism, the technological innovation diffusion mechanism and the technological innovation symbiosis mechanism and so on. But insufficiencies still remains, they are insufficient understanding to the complex degree of technological innovation question, as well as the limitation of former research techniques, as results of the above shortage, the non-linear effect relations in technological innovation process can not be reflected exactly.
The technological innovation which works as a route of the developing of technique and a process of human communicate to culture and social is consisted of factors and steps. The factors and steps reacted and contacted each other to compose an organism. Then we realized that there was an innovation system in the process of innovation. With the progressing knowledge on the complexity of technological innovation system, it needs to introduce complex science theory to promote technology innovation theory progression to contribute to the development of social and economics, and it needs to observe phenomena from technological innovation with systematic aspect and way to research on the technological innovation mechanism to enrich technological innovation research results.
The complex adaptive system (CAS) theory is one of the important research results of complex science. Its core thought is that adaptability makes complexity. The CAS theory inspires us to begin from the technological innovation system agents’general behaviors patterns such as accumulation, the coherence characteristic, the system emergence phenomenon as well as the relations between system and the environment, to research the mechanism of technological innovation system to develop macro strategies of the system. However, the research on technological innovation mechanism with CAS should not only be based on integer adhering and complexity adapting, but also break through traditional research techniques.
The agent-based simulation method emerged in the 1980s. It dose not understand the whole object from top to bottom, and then establish a block model. But it starts bottom to up to understand the major features of the objects, then abstracts the objects’the behavior rules, at last lets them interact in the computer simulation model. These behaviors maybe the direct relations between different agents’or indirect relations of many agents react under different environmental condition. The behavior results may be shown in this model, and give out emergence realizes in the computer experiment. Finally, researchers carry on the explanation based on the emergence phenomenon to explain the reality complicated system.
The merits of agent-based simulation are: breakthrough the limits by the model supposition of traditional techniques; the simulation form is nature, easy to obtain; base on the simulation of microscopic agents’attribute and behavior as the model foundation, emphasize the correlations between the microscopic agents; form the macroscopic phenomenon through the microscopic agents’behavior; introduces random factors. The shortcomings of agent-based simulation are lacks of confirmation condition and good reproducibility.
Agent-based modeling(ABM) is different from equation-based modeling(EBM). The differences between them are: the beginning of ABM is individual agent’s interactive behavior in the system, but not the relations between the observable attributes; it is from bottom to up. But EBM takes a group of mathematics equation as the beginning; it is from up to bottom. The ABM is more suitable in field of highly topicality and distributed feature, the rules in the field are individual decision process; the EBM is more suitable for concentrated field, its rules are physical laws but not information process.
In brief, the model established by ABM method has strong explanatory ability. Moreover, the modeler may also learn knowledge from the simulation. The technological innovation researches, which take the complex adaptive system theory as the foundation, and base on the agent-based simulation model method, will bring out a new domain of technological innovation research.
The technological innovation system simulation model (TISSM) is a multi-agent simulation model based on the REPAST. It simulates enterprises' daily operation under a region environment using the multi-agent simulation method. This region has certain amount enterprises, a policy formulation department and a market. Through TISSM the environment influence to the enterprise technological innovation behavior, as well as enterprises’responses to market competition and policy measures could be observed with established region market competition condition, policy condition, enterprise internal attribute, social environment and so on.
By the division of system function, TISSM is composed by three parts: the environment, the agents and the behavior rule set. TISSM’s simulation plan is to entrust the enterprise agent with certain initial fund and status attributes, distribute enterprise agents’position in model space randomly. The initial decision-making of enterprise agent occurs stochastically. Then, they decide their following behaviors according to their policy-making effect and the condition. Government and social culture work as environment in backside. In the model the enterprise agents can move in the region space, and interact with the environment and other agents. Statistical data of entire process are collected and output, which would be used to analysis the agents’behavior.
We can conduct material research to the technological innovation mechanism on the TISSM foundation. The technological innovation mechanism includes technological innovation motive mechanism, technological innovation diffusion mechanism , technological innovation symbiosis mechanism and conditional sub-mechanisms influenced each others under the above three mechanisms. In order to study the technological innovation mechanism, three mechanism models are built along with the above three mechanisms based on TISSM.
Technological innovation motive mechanism is the principles and institutes of influencing factors, which produces technological innovation behavior in technological innovation system. It is featured with the benefit, the activity, the overall relevance, openness, the cooperatives, the non-mutual recognition, the non-balanced state and the selective characteristic. The technological innovation motive mechanism played its role through the motive mechanism to decide function order and the weight of the factors, such as the market demand, the pressure of competition, the science and technology propelling, supporting power of government, entrepreneurial spirit, entrepreneur agent, enterprise culture and internal driving, which drive enterprise to engage in the technological innovation directly or the indirectly. Enterprise technological innovation ability is the foundation that guarantees the realizing of enterprise’s technological innovation activities. A reasonable technological innovation mechanism will stimulate enterprise's innovative activities unceasingly. It also stimulate the new technological innovation motive through affect in the market, the technology, the government, which causes enterprise's technological innovation activities can be continue.
Through the experimental running of agent-based technological innovation motive mechanism simulation model we realized: (1) If the enterprise has not received the strong pressure of competition, it will not carry on the technological innovation. (2) Compares with technological innovation's starting time and technology advancing speed: under the government mechanism under complete information condition, the starting time of technological innovation is short, the technical level enterprise achieves is highest. Under the marketing mechanism and marketing-government mechanism, the technological innovation started from the most advanced enterprise. The planned mechanism in insufficient information has lower technology advance speed and later innovation starting time. (3) To the distance of accumulated capital, the planned economy mechanism made bigger gap to the free competition mechanisms did. (4) As to the macro economics’influenced by technological innovation, under the specified condition, industry and region, the enterprises produce and develop faster along the complete plan mechanism with sufficient information. The enterprises were ease to obtain higher technical level, but as a result of the market limit, the competition was also more intense and the overall profit-to-investment ratio is low. Enterprises make higher profit rate in the planned mechanism in insufficient information due to enterprises took advance of the lower competition brought by the condition of closed market environment and a lower technological progression speed and production development speed to make higher surplus profit.
The technological innovation diffusion mechanism is the principles and institutes of the technological innovation achievement (product innovation or craft innovation) disseminate through certain channel among enterprises along with the time. Its characteristics are the influence, the systematic, the overflow and the succession. The technological innovation diffusion mechanism's operation way is: the profit induced power transformed from the intellectual property protection, attraction come from the fiscal levy preferential benefit, sustaining power come from government procurement, attraction come from market absorption capacity and pressure come from market competition, which is under function and the influence of environmental factor, turns to be the diffusion drive of technological innovation diffusing. Influenced by the enterprise innovation culture, entrepreneurs, the technical personnel and the general production worker will directly drive enterprise be engaged in the innovation. The enterprise’s technology basement finally safeguards the enterprise technological innovation diffusion activity to be able to carry on smoothly. The successful technological innovation diffusion reacts to the enterprise, the technology, the market and the government as to stimulate new technological innovation diffusion.
After the simulation experiment on the agent-based technological innovation diffusion mechanism model, concludes can be summarized as following: (1) Enterprise who take the lead in the technological innovation can obtain high excess profit, and along with the time development, its total assets accumulation quantity of these enterprises can enhance rapidly. (2) The technical leading enterprises take the lead to carry out the technological innovation; they may obtain more profits to form a positive cycle. They extended the disparity with the technical following enterprise gradually, and then the polarization on total assets is formed among them. (3) The diffuse of new technique of different generation shows accelerating. Dormant period and overlap period between the technology advancement stages is observed. (4) The technical leading enterprises obtained the benefit from the intellectual property protection. The intellectual property protection strengthened the superiority of technical leading enterprises. The backward enterprises obtain benefit from the technical diffusion. (5) Because the exiting of technological innovation diffusion, the technical leading enterprises cannot sustain their monopoly profit. They must be engaged in the technological innovation unceasingly. (6) Under the technical overflow effect's function, the above-mentioned activities will enable region’s overall technical level to upgrade, and then lead region’s entire technology to advance.
The technological innovation symbiosis mechanism is the inner linkage mechanism and the rules of enterprises forming the competition symbiosis relations in technological innovation system. The technological innovation symbiosis phenomenon is a self-organization occurrence produced in the technological innovation system. Enterprises’symbiosis process is a kind of self-organization procedure.
The technological innovation symbiosis mechanism functioned as an innovation power to help enterprises make mutual benefit, guarantee them to innovate smoothly with the goal of sharing of resources like material, energy and information. The power is consisted of power come from the communication and cooperation, the safeguard strength come from the enterprise prestige, and the guidance strength of enterprise’benefit. Successful technological symbiosis innovation will impel enterprises to seek the symbiosis development in a higher level.
Through the experience of agent-based technological innovation symbiosis mechanism simulation model, conclusions can be drawn as following: (1) In order to obtain resources and condition which the enterprises needs during their technological innovation process, the technological innovation enterprises tend to move gradually from dispersed state to congregate. But the enterprises may not close to be a combine; they may maintain certain distance between each other. (2) Under the condition of technological innovation symbiosis mechanism, the time gap between innovation starts period tends to be small. (3) Under the condition of technological innovation symbiosis mechanism, enterprise's fund accumulation level, enterprise's technological gap, enterprise's fund disparity is far greater than the situation without symbiosis mechanism. (4)The market competition (with technological innovation cooperation) is higher and earlier in the symbiosis mechanism than the situation without the mechanism. (5) The technological innovation symbiosis between enterprises will lead the increasing of society total assets in the region.
引文
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