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教育投资在经济增长中的作用机制研究
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摘要
本文采用定性和定量相结合的方法对教育与经济增长之间的传导机制与作用机制进行了分析和检验。
     首先,本文通过数理模型分析了在不同融资体制下的人力资本状况以及人力资本积累规律,并且通过计量模型对由于各省市教育投资不平等所带来的教育资本存量的不同进行分析。结果表明,改革开放以来,我国实施的教育扩展政策收效显著,人力资本水平普遍提升显著地改善了我国地区间教育获得的不平等状况。
     其次,基于结构VAR模型对我国教育支出、平均工资以及经济增长序列之间的作用机制问题进行分析和测度,发现教育支出的持续增长会导致平均工资和GDP的持续增加,教育支出显著Granger影响经济增长和平均工资水平,平均收入和经济增长对我国教育投资支出的持久增长具有长期正向反应。
     再次,通过运用马尔科夫区制转移模型研究并刻画我国教育投资与经济增长波动性的时间动态路径,发现我国教育投资以及经济增长都可以分为“低速增长”、“适速增长”、“高速增长”三个状态,目前我国教育投资增长率以及经济增长率波动均处于“适速增长”阶段,我国教育投资以及经济增长波动已经呈现出稳定性继续增强、持续期逐渐加长等重要特征。
     最后,以我国各省为研究对象,通过建立面板数据模型探讨在我国各省教育投资与经济增长之间的关系,发现教育投入与经济增长的关系在我国还是比较显著,由于地区差异造成的投资不均衡带来的经济增长幅度不同在各省之间也有所体现。
The modern theory of economic growth is an important branch of economics, and economic growth is also an important symbol of receiving economic success. To achieve sustained and stable economic growth is always the goal of governments, thus economic growth has been a national study by economists focus of the issue.
     Economic growth is the physical capital and human capital in terms of quantity and quality to improve. Physical capital and human capital not only between but also complement and promote each other. In the traditional theory of economic growth, economic growth plays a major role in promoting the investment in physical capital. On the basis of the evidence ,The human capital theory put forward in the 1960s has shown that the developed countries revive the economy not because of the basic physical capital investment, but because of its investment in human capital. Now a growing number of economists believe that through research, in the early stages of economic development, physical capital made a larger contribution to economic growth, but in the medium-term, economic growth was mainly due to investment in human capital. That is a national or regional economic development rather than depends on the ultimate determinant of its material resources, but it depends on human resources. As an important component of human capital, l investment in education is the main ways of human capital accumulation and growth.
     Investment in education does not influence economic development directly, but it does have an impact on economic development indirectly through human beings. Education to economic development is to pass by two ways. On the one hand, education can make contribution to the optimization of human capital, particularly in improving labor productivity. In general, the more people educated, the more knowledge and skills these people will receive, and the easier and faster the work will be done. At the same time, they can be more accurate to complete more missions. From the labor market performance pay, we can determine the educated workforce as a result of the relatively high performance, which obtained more income. On the other hand, education can improve the socio-economic environment for the human beings to work and live, and then through optimizing the living environment, education will improve the quality of life and increase the productivity. For example, higher education will be the access to more stable marriage, and the people who have higher education will pay more attention to population quality of the next generation, and also will be pay more attention to the daily life; the education level will have a positive impact on the human beings’consumer behavior and asset management, and developed education is also conducive to reducing unemployment and crime.Because the quality of human resources have a great impact for economic development, and investment in education is the main core for the formation and accumulation of human capital, to increase investment in education, develop education and cultivate the talent social development needed is becoming more and more universal.
     Investment in education through the accumulation of human capital and in turn affect economic growth. Human capital, economic growth is an important part of how investment in education to measure the accumulation of human capital, is a question worth considering. Through theoretical analysis of the mathematical model in different financial institutions under the state of human capital and human capital accumulation law and the adoption of model measures for the various provinces and cities as a result of investment in education inequalities brought about by the education of the capital stock of the different analysis, has been a series of The empirical results. Through the empirical analysis, we believe that reform and opening up, China's educational policy effect to expand significantly, raise the general level of human capital, universal compulsory education, higher education expansion, a significant improvement in China's inter-regional inequality of access to education. There is still a degree of regional differences, but in recent years, initial education, the greater the degree of inequality in the region, the degree of inequality also reduce the greater the initial level of inequality in education, the smaller the area, the rate of reduction in the degree of inequality The smaller, have shown a trend of convergence.
     Based on 1952 to 2007 annual data,we use structural VAR model, Granger causality test,response of impact functions and variance decomposition,to test the effect of education expenditure growth to the average wage, as well as economic Growth. DF, and DF-GLS test results show that education expenditure, the average wage as well as the GDP series are non-stationary process.And the structural of the VAR equation parameters show that there are no structural changes of the educational expenditure,the average wage and GDP in China.By calculating the long-term response of the average wage and GDP on education expenditure, we find that education expenditure will lead to continued growth of average wages and GDP.Granger Causality Test results show that the education expenditure has significant impact on economic growth and the average wage level. Through the impulse response function, we can see that the response of economic growth and the average wage level to education expenditures lasted for 7 years and 9 years. Economic growth of variance decomposition shows that as time goes on, economic growth in the contribution to the variance is dwindling, and the average wage of contributions to the variance is enhanced. The average wage variance decomposition shows that the average wage of the variance in contribution is weakening.Therefore, the average income and the economic growth of China has a positive response of education expenditure growth.
     In the fifth chapter, we study investment in education on economic growth mechanism. This chapter measure China's investment in education with the national financial expenditure on education, and measure China's economic growth with GDP. After unit root test, we make a regression analysis with investment as explanatory variable and GDP as dependent variable, and the result shows that in the 1952-2003 period investment in education on the role in promoting economic growth of about 22.62 percent. We can see that after implementing market-oriented economic system, investment in education to economic growth boost significantly enhanced. Education to economic growth in the size of the effect is very prominent, and education to economic growth can not be ignored. When measuring the contribution of investment in education to economic growth rate in the chapter, we use the determination on saving, investment and economic growth model made by Britain's Oxford University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Harold Thomas, and the results of calculations reveal that education has a significant promoting role in long-term growth of the national economy. The Granger-causality test and co-integration show that investment in education and economic growth has mutually supportive relationship and that they have a highly significant long-run equilibrium. The response of investment in education to economic growth impulse also reveals the conclusions above.
     we use Markov regime-switching model to investigate the education investment and dynamic path of China’s business cycle. According to the result of estimation and test, we find that there are“low growth regime”,“suitable growth regime”and“fast growth regime”in education investment and China’s business cycle. Combining with the practical economy, we can get the result that there are some relationships between the policy mechanisms and the regimes of the education investment and China’s business cycle, and the education investment and the business cycle of China is asymmetry at some degrees. The empirical evidences also show that the fluctuations have become more stable, the duration have been more longer. These findings are very important to determine the combinations of economic policies and implementing of macroeconomic controls.
     The education as the human capital development's fundamental mode, is long-standing promoting to the economy. Since the reform and open policy, the Chinese economic development has achieved the achievement which attracts worldwide attention, the doordinated and balanced program of development and the effective use to promotes the economic development also play the very vital role. In the era of knowledge economy, the economical development depends upon the knowledge more and more, the education takes the knowledge and the human resources Production department, is in the leading position in comprehensive national strength's formation, educates into the new economic growth is the knowledge economy inevitable trend. Education social economy benefit performance for various, is mainly educates the raise all levels of each kind of worker to play the role in the social product process, enables the economy to obtain the growth, the computation educates to the economic growth contribution, is in an economics of education difficulty. Many scholars use the different method to conduct the research, the main method has former Soviet Union's work short-cut method; American Schultz's educational return law, Dennison's factor analytic method. This festival attempts take our country various provinces as the object of study, through the establishment kneading board data model discussion between our country various provinces educational investment and economic growth's relations, discovered that the doordinated and balanced program of development and economic growth's relations are quite remarkable in our country, because the regional disparity creates the investment is imbalanced the economic growth scope which brings between various provinces also to have differently manifests. At the same time, this has also analyzed our country educational investment present situation, is mainly the amount of investment is insufficient, the structure of investment is unreasonable as well as the subject of investment is not very rich, these have restricted education's healthy development. Finally proposed the related policy suggested makes every effort to cause the educational investment to hasten reasonably, causes the education industry to obtain the unprecedented development.
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