信息产业发展机理及测度理论与方法研究
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摘要
信息产业作为一个演化着的复杂系统,有其自身的演进规律、内在发展机理,传统产业发展所遵循的基本规律不能很好地解释信息产业的发展特性。研究信息产业发展机理、规律,对信息产业进行测度,提出可行的发展战略,对促进信息产业可持续发展具有重要意义。
本文基于发展的观点,首先对信息产业进行了新的界定。然后,在时间维度运用复杂系统理论和演化经济学理论从多层次研究了信息产业演化的机理及动力机制,在分析中引入了全要素生产率,除了研究人力资本、物资资本对信息产业演化的影响,还重点研究了信息资本在信息产业演化中的作用。从空间角度运用系统动力学理论和信息产业集聚理论研究了信息产业集聚机理和集聚动力机制;运用产业链理论,研究信息产业链形成的原因和信息产业链形成的机理。从结构角度运用投入产出分析和回归分析方法研究了信息产业促进经济增长的作用机理。在上述研究的基础上运用综合分析模型研究了信息产业发展机理和发展规律,构建了信息产业生命模型和生长曲线。运用灰色优势关联分析研究了影响信息产业发展的制约因素。第三,基于信息产业演化机理研究和影响因素分析,运用复杂系统建模理论深入研究了信息产业的测度理论和方法,提出了基于系统模型的信息产业测度指标体系。研究了利用主成分分析方法进行降维的信息产业测度,以及利用自组织数据挖掘进行信息产业预测的方法。第四,针对上述研究,进行了实证分析,验证了上述理论和方法的科学性、实用性和合理性。最后,以信息产业发展机理、信息产业发展影响因素、信息产业测度和国外信息产业发展战略为基础,提出了我国信息产业发展的战略和具体实施策略。
Information industry is the strategic point of the global competition, the key support of informatization construction and the important engine to promote economic growth. The research on information industry composition and development law is to explore moment, and the system theory hasn’t come into being. The researches on the development law and evolving mechanism is the aim of the researchers in information industry and the challenging project of information industry field. Now it does not accord with the fact of the evolving mechanism and growth law. So we should study the evolving mechanism, law and measure. It can deepen the informational research content, improve information industrial system info, promote the rapid growth of information industry and also play an important role in promoting the national economy growth. The paper have studied the evolving mechanism from time, space and structure three aspects, and have measured the information industry in synthesizing quantified.
The systematic theory and method have been applied in the research work. Because information industry system is a complex evolving system, it has been studied on the growing evolvement of information industry by using industry economics, evolving economics, technical innovation economics, regional development theory, system dynamics, industry cluster theory and complex adaptive system theory etc. It has given the new concept and classification of information industry. It has studied the dynamical mechanism of information industry in microcosmic, medium and macrocosmic aspects, and has studied the measure theory and method by using complex system theory. The method have been proved to be good. The problems have been studied on multi-dimension and multi-layer. It has perfected the theory system info and the content. The strategy has also been brought forward. It can promote the development of information industry. The main contents are as follows:
1. Study on the Evolving Mechanism and Measure Theory of Information Industry The paper has expatiated on the basic theory of information industrial evolving and measure. The development of information industry is different from the generic system. It is a complex system. The theories of information industry’s evolving, cluster, chain and measure are all parts of information industry theory. Evolving economics and complex adaptive system(CAS) have perfected the evolving theory of information industry. System dynamics and complexity science theory enriched the theory system of information industrial cluster and chain, and recuperated the shortage of depicting the industry cluster’s dynamical mechanism in economics. It is expedience on studying the dynamical mechanism of information industrial cluster and operation law. It can control the evolving aspect. The model theory is the supplement of information industry cluster theory. The application of main component analysis theory and self-organizing data mining consummated the theory system of information industrial measure.
2. Study on the Evolving Mechanism of Information Industry
The paper have studied on the evolving mechanism from the perspective of time, space and structure.
The deep problems have been researched by using CAS and evolving economics from the perspective of time. It revealed the evolving mechanism and non-linearity dynamical mechanism and the general evolving regularity. The information industrial evolving comes from both inside and outside force. The competition and cooperation with information enterprise is the inner force of information industry evolving. The competition among deferent industries is the chiefly condition of system evolving. It can make the system to be non-balance. The cooperation among industries can make movement of the information industry to unite and zoom out in non-balance. It controls the whole evolvement of information industry. The potential competition and cooperation among information enterprises are the determinant factor of information industry evolvement. The changes of objective economy and social environment are the exterior condition and resource restriction of information industrial evolvement.
Information industry has some laws along with temporal movement from inside and outside force. The process and modality of forces are deferent at deferent time of information industrial evolvement. It has suited the causations of information industrial cluster in model theory from the perspective of structure. It constructed the dynamical model of information industry cluster and researched the formative mechanism of information industry chain and analyzed the formation mechanism that information industry has on economic growth. Both internal forces and outside forces have effect on the evolving of it together. Information industry provides the sustaining development condition for information industry cluster by cause and effect feed back of talent, technology, capital and market flow. The interaction between inside and outside force is the big impetus of information industry cluster. The exterior actions are related with market, supply and demand, maturity of correlation industry, the market latency capability and industry scale. Research institution, finance institution and government provide talent, technology, capital, consultation and teaching for information enterprise. Government behavior and exterior competition impact on the development and perfection of the dynamic mechanism of information industrial cluster. Information industry chain is the result of information industry cluster. Competition and cooperation result in the enterprise federation. Technical innovation results in information industrial cluster. Symbiosis innovation bring out information industry chain. Correlation industry and sustentation industry have vital action to form and develop information industry chain. Information industry chain bring out all-win. The high value-added is the evolutionary dynamics of information industry chain’s dissipative structure. Information industry chain speeds information industry cluster.
It studies on the structure relationship between information industry and tradition industry by input and output method from structure aspect. Information industry has had a great and deep influence on economic growth. The analysis has been made by using the value-added , inducing coefficient and diffusion coefficient. Information technical innovation is the headspring of economic growth. Specialization talent is the development base of information industry. Total factor productivity is the important approach to promote economic growth. Information economic policy ensure economic growth.
The evolvement can produce diversification and diversification can push the evolvement.
The system interactive action is the important evolutionary and development dynamics of information industry. The influence factors of it on development of national economy has been researched on the basis of gray relational analysis theory. It is consistent with the conclusion of it’s evolving research.
3. Study on Development Law of Information Industry
It took on stated orderliness over time. The life model and growth model of information industry have been built on its evolving mechanism by using inside and outside data.
4. Study on Development infection factors of Information Industry
It has studied the certain principle influence on information industry. It has scheme out estimating index system of information industry infection factors. Information technology, GDP, science research and development, information talent, information policy affect information industry evolvement. It has calculated the relationship by gray relation method. The conclusion accords with the information industry evolvement research.
5.Study on the Theory and Method of Information Industry Measure
The system model of information industry was put forward by evolving mechanism and the influencing factors analysis. It made up the synthesis estimate model of information industry measure by using system model. It can primely reflect the development level of information industry. It can reflect the tempo and development trend at time, the whole layout of the industry at space , the function and administration of information industry. It can also reflect the characteristic, such as high technology and high value-added. The index system can measure the information resource development and utilization. There is not the figure in other industries measure. The potential and sustainable development capability is the foundation of information industry. It has measure the development level of information industry by principal component analysis and self-organizing data mining. The measure method use integrated index, but not single index. It can avoid the subjective deviation. It has realized the fake of measure the information industry in few variable and parameter.
6.Empirical Research for Evolvement and Measure of information industry
This paper has done empirical research on the evolvement and measure of information industry. The evolving process of information industry has been analyzed for province JiLin. It has measured the development level of information industry about ten regions. The method contrasts with other measure methods. It has proved to be a new measure method. It is more scientific and rational. It can reflect the real development level of information industry.
7.Study on Development Strategies
It has studied the development strategies based on evolvement mechanism, development affect factors and the measure result of information industry. It has put forward the development strategies and the concrete strategies.
The main contribute is the study on complex science theory and method. It has studied the evolvement mechanism by evolving economics, information economics, industry economics, industry cluster theory and system dynamics, and the true condition in China. It has studied the evolvement of information industry by applying more theories from time, space and structure aspects. It has discussed the measure method in a few variables. The researches have perfected the theory system, exploited the research vision and developed the complex adaptive system theory and method. It can provide a theoretical and decision-making basis for establishing economy industry policy. It can promote the rapid growth of information industry and the national economy.
本文基于发展的观点,首先对信息产业进行了新的界定。然后,在时间维度运用复杂系统理论和演化经济学理论从多层次研究了信息产业演化的机理及动力机制,在分析中引入了全要素生产率,除了研究人力资本、物资资本对信息产业演化的影响,还重点研究了信息资本在信息产业演化中的作用。从空间角度运用系统动力学理论和信息产业集聚理论研究了信息产业集聚机理和集聚动力机制;运用产业链理论,研究信息产业链形成的原因和信息产业链形成的机理。从结构角度运用投入产出分析和回归分析方法研究了信息产业促进经济增长的作用机理。在上述研究的基础上运用综合分析模型研究了信息产业发展机理和发展规律,构建了信息产业生命模型和生长曲线。运用灰色优势关联分析研究了影响信息产业发展的制约因素。第三,基于信息产业演化机理研究和影响因素分析,运用复杂系统建模理论深入研究了信息产业的测度理论和方法,提出了基于系统模型的信息产业测度指标体系。研究了利用主成分分析方法进行降维的信息产业测度,以及利用自组织数据挖掘进行信息产业预测的方法。第四,针对上述研究,进行了实证分析,验证了上述理论和方法的科学性、实用性和合理性。最后,以信息产业发展机理、信息产业发展影响因素、信息产业测度和国外信息产业发展战略为基础,提出了我国信息产业发展的战略和具体实施策略。
Information industry is the strategic point of the global competition, the key support of informatization construction and the important engine to promote economic growth. The research on information industry composition and development law is to explore moment, and the system theory hasn’t come into being. The researches on the development law and evolving mechanism is the aim of the researchers in information industry and the challenging project of information industry field. Now it does not accord with the fact of the evolving mechanism and growth law. So we should study the evolving mechanism, law and measure. It can deepen the informational research content, improve information industrial system info, promote the rapid growth of information industry and also play an important role in promoting the national economy growth. The paper have studied the evolving mechanism from time, space and structure three aspects, and have measured the information industry in synthesizing quantified.
The systematic theory and method have been applied in the research work. Because information industry system is a complex evolving system, it has been studied on the growing evolvement of information industry by using industry economics, evolving economics, technical innovation economics, regional development theory, system dynamics, industry cluster theory and complex adaptive system theory etc. It has given the new concept and classification of information industry. It has studied the dynamical mechanism of information industry in microcosmic, medium and macrocosmic aspects, and has studied the measure theory and method by using complex system theory. The method have been proved to be good. The problems have been studied on multi-dimension and multi-layer. It has perfected the theory system info and the content. The strategy has also been brought forward. It can promote the development of information industry. The main contents are as follows:
1. Study on the Evolving Mechanism and Measure Theory of Information Industry The paper has expatiated on the basic theory of information industrial evolving and measure. The development of information industry is different from the generic system. It is a complex system. The theories of information industry’s evolving, cluster, chain and measure are all parts of information industry theory. Evolving economics and complex adaptive system(CAS) have perfected the evolving theory of information industry. System dynamics and complexity science theory enriched the theory system of information industrial cluster and chain, and recuperated the shortage of depicting the industry cluster’s dynamical mechanism in economics. It is expedience on studying the dynamical mechanism of information industrial cluster and operation law. It can control the evolving aspect. The model theory is the supplement of information industry cluster theory. The application of main component analysis theory and self-organizing data mining consummated the theory system of information industrial measure.
2. Study on the Evolving Mechanism of Information Industry
The paper have studied on the evolving mechanism from the perspective of time, space and structure.
The deep problems have been researched by using CAS and evolving economics from the perspective of time. It revealed the evolving mechanism and non-linearity dynamical mechanism and the general evolving regularity. The information industrial evolving comes from both inside and outside force. The competition and cooperation with information enterprise is the inner force of information industry evolving. The competition among deferent industries is the chiefly condition of system evolving. It can make the system to be non-balance. The cooperation among industries can make movement of the information industry to unite and zoom out in non-balance. It controls the whole evolvement of information industry. The potential competition and cooperation among information enterprises are the determinant factor of information industry evolvement. The changes of objective economy and social environment are the exterior condition and resource restriction of information industrial evolvement.
Information industry has some laws along with temporal movement from inside and outside force. The process and modality of forces are deferent at deferent time of information industrial evolvement. It has suited the causations of information industrial cluster in model theory from the perspective of structure. It constructed the dynamical model of information industry cluster and researched the formative mechanism of information industry chain and analyzed the formation mechanism that information industry has on economic growth. Both internal forces and outside forces have effect on the evolving of it together. Information industry provides the sustaining development condition for information industry cluster by cause and effect feed back of talent, technology, capital and market flow. The interaction between inside and outside force is the big impetus of information industry cluster. The exterior actions are related with market, supply and demand, maturity of correlation industry, the market latency capability and industry scale. Research institution, finance institution and government provide talent, technology, capital, consultation and teaching for information enterprise. Government behavior and exterior competition impact on the development and perfection of the dynamic mechanism of information industrial cluster. Information industry chain is the result of information industry cluster. Competition and cooperation result in the enterprise federation. Technical innovation results in information industrial cluster. Symbiosis innovation bring out information industry chain. Correlation industry and sustentation industry have vital action to form and develop information industry chain. Information industry chain bring out all-win. The high value-added is the evolutionary dynamics of information industry chain’s dissipative structure. Information industry chain speeds information industry cluster.
It studies on the structure relationship between information industry and tradition industry by input and output method from structure aspect. Information industry has had a great and deep influence on economic growth. The analysis has been made by using the value-added , inducing coefficient and diffusion coefficient. Information technical innovation is the headspring of economic growth. Specialization talent is the development base of information industry. Total factor productivity is the important approach to promote economic growth. Information economic policy ensure economic growth.
The evolvement can produce diversification and diversification can push the evolvement.
The system interactive action is the important evolutionary and development dynamics of information industry. The influence factors of it on development of national economy has been researched on the basis of gray relational analysis theory. It is consistent with the conclusion of it’s evolving research.
3. Study on Development Law of Information Industry
It took on stated orderliness over time. The life model and growth model of information industry have been built on its evolving mechanism by using inside and outside data.
4. Study on Development infection factors of Information Industry
It has studied the certain principle influence on information industry. It has scheme out estimating index system of information industry infection factors. Information technology, GDP, science research and development, information talent, information policy affect information industry evolvement. It has calculated the relationship by gray relation method. The conclusion accords with the information industry evolvement research.
5.Study on the Theory and Method of Information Industry Measure
The system model of information industry was put forward by evolving mechanism and the influencing factors analysis. It made up the synthesis estimate model of information industry measure by using system model. It can primely reflect the development level of information industry. It can reflect the tempo and development trend at time, the whole layout of the industry at space , the function and administration of information industry. It can also reflect the characteristic, such as high technology and high value-added. The index system can measure the information resource development and utilization. There is not the figure in other industries measure. The potential and sustainable development capability is the foundation of information industry. It has measure the development level of information industry by principal component analysis and self-organizing data mining. The measure method use integrated index, but not single index. It can avoid the subjective deviation. It has realized the fake of measure the information industry in few variable and parameter.
6.Empirical Research for Evolvement and Measure of information industry
This paper has done empirical research on the evolvement and measure of information industry. The evolving process of information industry has been analyzed for province JiLin. It has measured the development level of information industry about ten regions. The method contrasts with other measure methods. It has proved to be a new measure method. It is more scientific and rational. It can reflect the real development level of information industry.
7.Study on Development Strategies
It has studied the development strategies based on evolvement mechanism, development affect factors and the measure result of information industry. It has put forward the development strategies and the concrete strategies.
The main contribute is the study on complex science theory and method. It has studied the evolvement mechanism by evolving economics, information economics, industry economics, industry cluster theory and system dynamics, and the true condition in China. It has studied the evolvement of information industry by applying more theories from time, space and structure aspects. It has discussed the measure method in a few variables. The researches have perfected the theory system, exploited the research vision and developed the complex adaptive system theory and method. It can provide a theoretical and decision-making basis for establishing economy industry policy. It can promote the rapid growth of information industry and the national economy.
引文
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