大尺度断层活动数值模拟及地震学研究
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摘要
人类已经步入了二十一世纪,但是世纪之初苏门答腊地震引起的印度洋海啸和四川汶川大地震给我们再一次的警示,地震灾害仍然是人类面临的重大灾害之一。虽然很多地震学家对地震预测进行了大量的工作,但是地震预测和预报现今仍然不是很成功。其中有多方面的原因,其中一个原因是对孕震和地震活动性认识不足,理论模型还不够完善。所以地震活动性的研究迫在眉睫,本文对断层的地震活动性进行了数值模拟,希望通过模拟,得到地震活动性的一些规律。本文使用的数值模拟方法是有限元法,由于断层的活动是大尺度和长时间的事件,因此使用准静态的模拟方式近似处理,断层间的作用是借助于有限元中的接触碰撞算法和接触单元来实现的。
对平直断层和几何弯曲断层分别进行了数值模拟,并进行了对比。模拟结果显示,断层在发生地震之前有一个预滑过程,这一现象和岩石实验的结果是一致的。几何弯曲断层的模拟结果显示了明显的“特征地震”现象,地震呈现准周期的重复发生。平直断层和几何弯曲断层的活动性差异较大,弯曲断层造成了断层应力分布的强烈不均匀,断层弯曲一方面抑制了中小地震的破裂,另一方面也孕育了大震的发生;弯曲断层主震前往往有明显的前震,而平直断层主震前前震不明显,这也是和断层的应力分布均匀与否直接相关的。模拟给出的地震活动是特征地震类型,所以地震频度一震级在大震级处偏离经验公式G-R公式。这些模拟结果对进一步进行地震活动性模拟具有启发意义,为地震危险性分析提供了很好的参考价值。
G—R公式是人们对某区域或全球发生的大量地震进行统计得出的经验公式,文中介绍了现今对此公式的物理机制解释。近来,有些学者在进行断层活动性研究时,发现了不同于G—R规律的另一个地震活动模型——“特征地震”模型。本文列举了其中一些典型的实例。为了解释G—R模型和特征地震模型之间的矛盾,给出了一些数值模拟实验的结果。这些研究的结论是这样的:单个成熟断层的活动性符合特征地震模型,而对于比较广阔的断层区域,断层活动符合G—R公式。为了解释特征地震的物理机制,引用kostrov震源破裂动力学理论,本文进行了一些推广,并结合数值模拟结果进行了分析和解释。
本文的最后,对2001年昆仑山8.1级大地震的位错进行了模拟。不同于位错反演,本模拟是建立在一给定的构造应力作用下,建立了昆仑山破裂断层的有限元模型,断层处仍然运用接触单元来模拟断层摩擦和碰撞。根据破裂动力学理论,断层位错的大小与断层处的应力释放有密切关系。以往的模拟都是人为地给定断层处的应力分布和摩擦破裂极限,而与以往的模拟不同,本模型断层应力分布是在构造应力和断层的相互作用下自然给出的,这更接近于实际断层的情况。经过多次参数的调整,最后的结果与SPOT卫星得出的位错分布符合得很好。有一点值得一提,从本模型的结果看,断层在库赛湖段某处有一个低位错量,是由于断层在构造应力下的拉张形变造成应力释放偏低导致的,和Klinger等人的结果不同,他们认为此处的低位错量是因为分支断层的影响所致。但是我们认为,即使不考虑分支断层的影响,断层在构造应力和摩擦作用下的局部形变也导致了断层应力分布的不均匀,甚至出现了局部的拉张区域,这个因素也是不能忽略的。此外,通过改变模型中的一些参数,对各种参数对断层位错的影响也进行了讨论。本模型中运用的方法能够给出不同形态断层在不同的构造应力下的变形和应力分布格局,模拟结果也指出由于构造应力和摩擦作用造成断层变形导致的断层上非均匀的应力分布在地震模拟中(包括地震破裂动力学模拟)是不可忽视的。
In the first decade of the 21~(th) Century, human beings encountered two large disasters: one is 2004 Indian ocean tsunami arose from the Sumatra earthquake , the other is 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We were reminded again that the earthquakes are still one of the most serious disasters in the future we will must face. Although many seismologists endeavored to forecast the earthquakes, it is still not sucessful. There are many reasons : one ? of these reasons is that we are not familiar with the mechanics of the earthquake preparation and the activities of the faults. In order to understand the behavior of the fault,this dissertation simulated the activities of fault by quasistatic finite element method (FEM) in thousands of years. We made use of the Contact technology of FEM to realize the interaction of the two parts of fault.
The geometrical planar fault and geometrical bend fault all have been simulated and compared. The results show before a earthquake takes place, there will be a pre-slip which is resembled with experiments in laboratory .The different of activities of planar and bend faults are large: high heterogeneous stress distribution due to bend fault not only block the ruptures of median-small earthquakes, but also can gestate large earthquakes; high heterogeneous stress on fault also induce more foreshocks on bend fault than planar fault. The result of the bend fault model show the "characteristic earthquakes" distinctly, earthquakes repetition is quasiperiod. The earthquake frequence-size distribution of this "Characteristic earthquakes" is deviate from G-R relationship. These results are very useful to understand the behaviour of faults, furthermore, they provide good references for assessment of seismic risk.
The G-R relation is a experiential formula based on statistic of lots of earthquakes in one region or global. Many researchers have given some explanations which are cited in this dissertation . Recently some researchers found a new type of earthquake activities of fault which is called "Characteristic earthquakes", this type is different from G-R relationship. Some typical examples of "Characteristic earthquakes" are introduced in this dissertation. The conflict of two types of earthquake activities is resolved by some numerical simulations: Characteristic earthquakes type is adapt to a single mature fault, G-R relationship type is adapt to earthquakes in a wide area. Then in order to explain the mechanism of "Characteristic earthquakes", the Kostrov's theory of dynamical rupture of earthquake is introduced. Some discussion and simulation results are given for more complex models.
In the end of the dissertation , a simulation for 2001 Ms 8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake's dislocation is made. Different from inversion of dislocation, this model under a tectonic stress which can lead the Kunlunshan fault distort and rupture, the interactions of parts of the fault is still made use of Contact algorithm of FEM. Different from other simulation model in which pre-stress is designated on fault, the stress on the Kunlunshan fault of this model is spontaneously produced by interaction between the fault and the tectonic stress which surround the fault, this distribution of stress is closer to reality. The dislocation of simulation is quite consist with the data from satellite SPOT. From the result of the fault model, dislocation has a low value on one region on the fault near the Kusaihu , this is due to low stress drop during the earthquake ,the low stress drop is due to fault's tensile distortion. Klinger(2004) suggested the sub-fault of Kunlunshan fault caused the low dislocation on this region,but we believe that even not consider the effect of sub-fault, the high heterogeneous distribution of stress on fault due to fault distortion under a certain tectonic stress and friction probably is also a reasonable reason. By changing some parameters in the model, we calculate other models and compare them with each other. The method in the model can be easy to calculate the stress field of the fault and the area surround the fault.The effect of the heterogeneous stress distribution on fault which is caused by distortion of geometrical fault under certain tectonic stress and friction should be emphasized on earthquake simulations.
对平直断层和几何弯曲断层分别进行了数值模拟,并进行了对比。模拟结果显示,断层在发生地震之前有一个预滑过程,这一现象和岩石实验的结果是一致的。几何弯曲断层的模拟结果显示了明显的“特征地震”现象,地震呈现准周期的重复发生。平直断层和几何弯曲断层的活动性差异较大,弯曲断层造成了断层应力分布的强烈不均匀,断层弯曲一方面抑制了中小地震的破裂,另一方面也孕育了大震的发生;弯曲断层主震前往往有明显的前震,而平直断层主震前前震不明显,这也是和断层的应力分布均匀与否直接相关的。模拟给出的地震活动是特征地震类型,所以地震频度一震级在大震级处偏离经验公式G-R公式。这些模拟结果对进一步进行地震活动性模拟具有启发意义,为地震危险性分析提供了很好的参考价值。
G—R公式是人们对某区域或全球发生的大量地震进行统计得出的经验公式,文中介绍了现今对此公式的物理机制解释。近来,有些学者在进行断层活动性研究时,发现了不同于G—R规律的另一个地震活动模型——“特征地震”模型。本文列举了其中一些典型的实例。为了解释G—R模型和特征地震模型之间的矛盾,给出了一些数值模拟实验的结果。这些研究的结论是这样的:单个成熟断层的活动性符合特征地震模型,而对于比较广阔的断层区域,断层活动符合G—R公式。为了解释特征地震的物理机制,引用kostrov震源破裂动力学理论,本文进行了一些推广,并结合数值模拟结果进行了分析和解释。
本文的最后,对2001年昆仑山8.1级大地震的位错进行了模拟。不同于位错反演,本模拟是建立在一给定的构造应力作用下,建立了昆仑山破裂断层的有限元模型,断层处仍然运用接触单元来模拟断层摩擦和碰撞。根据破裂动力学理论,断层位错的大小与断层处的应力释放有密切关系。以往的模拟都是人为地给定断层处的应力分布和摩擦破裂极限,而与以往的模拟不同,本模型断层应力分布是在构造应力和断层的相互作用下自然给出的,这更接近于实际断层的情况。经过多次参数的调整,最后的结果与SPOT卫星得出的位错分布符合得很好。有一点值得一提,从本模型的结果看,断层在库赛湖段某处有一个低位错量,是由于断层在构造应力下的拉张形变造成应力释放偏低导致的,和Klinger等人的结果不同,他们认为此处的低位错量是因为分支断层的影响所致。但是我们认为,即使不考虑分支断层的影响,断层在构造应力和摩擦作用下的局部形变也导致了断层应力分布的不均匀,甚至出现了局部的拉张区域,这个因素也是不能忽略的。此外,通过改变模型中的一些参数,对各种参数对断层位错的影响也进行了讨论。本模型中运用的方法能够给出不同形态断层在不同的构造应力下的变形和应力分布格局,模拟结果也指出由于构造应力和摩擦作用造成断层变形导致的断层上非均匀的应力分布在地震模拟中(包括地震破裂动力学模拟)是不可忽视的。
In the first decade of the 21~(th) Century, human beings encountered two large disasters: one is 2004 Indian ocean tsunami arose from the Sumatra earthquake , the other is 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We were reminded again that the earthquakes are still one of the most serious disasters in the future we will must face. Although many seismologists endeavored to forecast the earthquakes, it is still not sucessful. There are many reasons : one ? of these reasons is that we are not familiar with the mechanics of the earthquake preparation and the activities of the faults. In order to understand the behavior of the fault,this dissertation simulated the activities of fault by quasistatic finite element method (FEM) in thousands of years. We made use of the Contact technology of FEM to realize the interaction of the two parts of fault.
The geometrical planar fault and geometrical bend fault all have been simulated and compared. The results show before a earthquake takes place, there will be a pre-slip which is resembled with experiments in laboratory .The different of activities of planar and bend faults are large: high heterogeneous stress distribution due to bend fault not only block the ruptures of median-small earthquakes, but also can gestate large earthquakes; high heterogeneous stress on fault also induce more foreshocks on bend fault than planar fault. The result of the bend fault model show the "characteristic earthquakes" distinctly, earthquakes repetition is quasiperiod. The earthquake frequence-size distribution of this "Characteristic earthquakes" is deviate from G-R relationship. These results are very useful to understand the behaviour of faults, furthermore, they provide good references for assessment of seismic risk.
The G-R relation is a experiential formula based on statistic of lots of earthquakes in one region or global. Many researchers have given some explanations which are cited in this dissertation . Recently some researchers found a new type of earthquake activities of fault which is called "Characteristic earthquakes", this type is different from G-R relationship. Some typical examples of "Characteristic earthquakes" are introduced in this dissertation. The conflict of two types of earthquake activities is resolved by some numerical simulations: Characteristic earthquakes type is adapt to a single mature fault, G-R relationship type is adapt to earthquakes in a wide area. Then in order to explain the mechanism of "Characteristic earthquakes", the Kostrov's theory of dynamical rupture of earthquake is introduced. Some discussion and simulation results are given for more complex models.
In the end of the dissertation , a simulation for 2001 Ms 8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake's dislocation is made. Different from inversion of dislocation, this model under a tectonic stress which can lead the Kunlunshan fault distort and rupture, the interactions of parts of the fault is still made use of Contact algorithm of FEM. Different from other simulation model in which pre-stress is designated on fault, the stress on the Kunlunshan fault of this model is spontaneously produced by interaction between the fault and the tectonic stress which surround the fault, this distribution of stress is closer to reality. The dislocation of simulation is quite consist with the data from satellite SPOT. From the result of the fault model, dislocation has a low value on one region on the fault near the Kusaihu , this is due to low stress drop during the earthquake ,the low stress drop is due to fault's tensile distortion. Klinger(2004) suggested the sub-fault of Kunlunshan fault caused the low dislocation on this region,but we believe that even not consider the effect of sub-fault, the high heterogeneous distribution of stress on fault due to fault distortion under a certain tectonic stress and friction probably is also a reasonable reason. By changing some parameters in the model, we calculate other models and compare them with each other. The method in the model can be easy to calculate the stress field of the fault and the area surround the fault.The effect of the heterogeneous stress distribution on fault which is caused by distortion of geometrical fault under certain tectonic stress and friction should be emphasized on earthquake simulations.
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