采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统研究
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摘要
当前,我国油公司上游企业的生产经营环境发生了深刻变化,面临的资源约束和开发难度也越来越大。采油厂作为油公司上游企业的责任主体,担负着加强油气生产和成本控制、提高经济效益的重要职责。因此,本文立足于采油厂,适应油藏经营战略的发展要求,建立行之有效的采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统,以对采油厂油藏经营效益进行不同层面的评价,并在此基础上对企业的发展趋势进行有效预测和调控,达到提高油藏经营管理决策水平和采油厂经济效益的目的。
本文以采油厂和油藏经营管理单元为切入点,以系统论、油藏经营管理理论和效益评价理论为基础,将效益评价与预测理论与采油厂油藏经营实际相结合,界定了采油厂油藏经营效益的内涵,建立了采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统,认为该系统属于油田企业油藏经营战略管理的一个分支,它是以采油厂所属油藏经营管理单元为主要研究对象,以提高经济效益和提升采油厂可持续发展能力为目标,通过提供科学的油藏开发规划决策信息,协调油价、产量和投入三者之间联动关系,进行油藏经营管理计划与控制的功能集合体。
运用历史研究法和文献评述法,对效益评价与预测理论及其在采油厂中的应用进行综合评述,分析了建立和应用采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统的必要性和可行性;借鉴杜邦分析法、多指标综合评价方法和成本管理决策方法,创建了四个层面的油藏经营效益评价模型,包括采油厂油藏经营效益综合评价模型、油藏经营管理单元效益评价模型、开发管理单元效益评价模型及开发单井效益评价模型,形成了采油厂油藏经营效益评价子系统;
运用数理统计方法,以油藏经营管理单元为切入点,创建了预算年度和油藏剩余经济寿命期内的采油厂油藏经营效益预测模型,形成了采油厂油藏经营效益预测子系统;运用定性描述与定量分析相结合方法,进行了采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统的实证研究,并从强化油藏经营效益理念、创新组织结构、健全采油厂油藏经营责任体系等方面提出应用采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统的保障措施及对策建议。
总之,采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统的建立与应用,有利于油藏经营效益评价与预测的有效对接,有助于全面理解和把握油藏开发动态,及时发现、诊断油藏经营过程中存在和可能出现的主要问题及影响程度,并在此基础上对采油厂投入产出变化趋势进行科学预测和有效调控,为采油厂正确评价现状、明确发展目标、科学制定开发策略、指导生产经营实践提供有效手段和决策支持。
Presently, the upstream enterprises' production management environment of oil companies of China has changed profoundly, and the resource restraint and the development difficulty become more and more great. As the responsibility subject of upstream enterprises, oil-producing factory is responsible for controlling oil & gas production cost and improving economic benefit. Therefore, on the basis of oil-producing factory and according to the requirement of reservoir management strategy, establishing an effective appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit is propitious to enhancing the decision-making level of reservoir management and the economic benefit of oil-producing factory. Taking oil-producing factory and reservoir management unit as breakthrough point and on the basis of the reservoir management theory and benefit appraisal theory, the paper integrates theory with practice, defines the connotation of reservoir management benefit and establishes the appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit. The paper regards the system as a branch of reservoir strategic management, which takes reservoir management unit as the main object of study, and the improvement of economic benefit and sustainable development ability as the goal, and carries on the plan and control of reservoir management through providing scientific reservoir development programming information and coordinating oil price, output and investment
Using the historical methodology and the literature remark law, the paper comments on the theory and application of benefit appraisal and the forecast synthetically, and analyses the necessity and feasibility of establishing and applying the reservoir management benefit appraisal and forecast system.
Using the DUPONT analysis method, multi objective appraisal method and cost management decision-making method, the paper constructs four reservoir management benefit appraisal models including oil-producing factory’s appraisal model, reservoir management unit’s appraisal model, development management unit’s appraisal model and single well’s appraisal model, that compose the oil-producing factory’s reservoir management benefit appraisal subsystem.
Using the mathematical statistic method and on the basis of the reservoir management unit, the paper constructs the benefit forecast model in the budget year and that in residual economy average life, that compose the oil-producing factory’s reservoir management benefit forecast subsystem.
Using the synthesis method combining qualitative description and quantitative analysis, the paper carries on the demonstration study of the appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit and proposes the countermeasure suggestions of applying the system, which include strengthening reservoir management benefit idea, innovating organization structure and improving the reservoir management responsibility system.
In brief, the establishment and application of oil-producing factory’s appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit can realize the joint of appraisal and forecast of reservoir management benefit. It is helpful to the comprehension and grasp of reservoir development tendency and the prompt discovery and diagnosis of the problems in reservoir management. Based on it, scientific forecast and effective regulation of the tendency of oil-producing factory’s input and output can provide the effective methods and decision-making basis for appraising oil-producing factory’s present situation, clearing development target and instructing production management practice.
本文以采油厂和油藏经营管理单元为切入点,以系统论、油藏经营管理理论和效益评价理论为基础,将效益评价与预测理论与采油厂油藏经营实际相结合,界定了采油厂油藏经营效益的内涵,建立了采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统,认为该系统属于油田企业油藏经营战略管理的一个分支,它是以采油厂所属油藏经营管理单元为主要研究对象,以提高经济效益和提升采油厂可持续发展能力为目标,通过提供科学的油藏开发规划决策信息,协调油价、产量和投入三者之间联动关系,进行油藏经营管理计划与控制的功能集合体。
运用历史研究法和文献评述法,对效益评价与预测理论及其在采油厂中的应用进行综合评述,分析了建立和应用采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统的必要性和可行性;借鉴杜邦分析法、多指标综合评价方法和成本管理决策方法,创建了四个层面的油藏经营效益评价模型,包括采油厂油藏经营效益综合评价模型、油藏经营管理单元效益评价模型、开发管理单元效益评价模型及开发单井效益评价模型,形成了采油厂油藏经营效益评价子系统;
运用数理统计方法,以油藏经营管理单元为切入点,创建了预算年度和油藏剩余经济寿命期内的采油厂油藏经营效益预测模型,形成了采油厂油藏经营效益预测子系统;运用定性描述与定量分析相结合方法,进行了采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统的实证研究,并从强化油藏经营效益理念、创新组织结构、健全采油厂油藏经营责任体系等方面提出应用采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统的保障措施及对策建议。
总之,采油厂油藏经营效益评价与预测系统的建立与应用,有利于油藏经营效益评价与预测的有效对接,有助于全面理解和把握油藏开发动态,及时发现、诊断油藏经营过程中存在和可能出现的主要问题及影响程度,并在此基础上对采油厂投入产出变化趋势进行科学预测和有效调控,为采油厂正确评价现状、明确发展目标、科学制定开发策略、指导生产经营实践提供有效手段和决策支持。
Presently, the upstream enterprises' production management environment of oil companies of China has changed profoundly, and the resource restraint and the development difficulty become more and more great. As the responsibility subject of upstream enterprises, oil-producing factory is responsible for controlling oil & gas production cost and improving economic benefit. Therefore, on the basis of oil-producing factory and according to the requirement of reservoir management strategy, establishing an effective appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit is propitious to enhancing the decision-making level of reservoir management and the economic benefit of oil-producing factory. Taking oil-producing factory and reservoir management unit as breakthrough point and on the basis of the reservoir management theory and benefit appraisal theory, the paper integrates theory with practice, defines the connotation of reservoir management benefit and establishes the appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit. The paper regards the system as a branch of reservoir strategic management, which takes reservoir management unit as the main object of study, and the improvement of economic benefit and sustainable development ability as the goal, and carries on the plan and control of reservoir management through providing scientific reservoir development programming information and coordinating oil price, output and investment
Using the historical methodology and the literature remark law, the paper comments on the theory and application of benefit appraisal and the forecast synthetically, and analyses the necessity and feasibility of establishing and applying the reservoir management benefit appraisal and forecast system.
Using the DUPONT analysis method, multi objective appraisal method and cost management decision-making method, the paper constructs four reservoir management benefit appraisal models including oil-producing factory’s appraisal model, reservoir management unit’s appraisal model, development management unit’s appraisal model and single well’s appraisal model, that compose the oil-producing factory’s reservoir management benefit appraisal subsystem.
Using the mathematical statistic method and on the basis of the reservoir management unit, the paper constructs the benefit forecast model in the budget year and that in residual economy average life, that compose the oil-producing factory’s reservoir management benefit forecast subsystem.
Using the synthesis method combining qualitative description and quantitative analysis, the paper carries on the demonstration study of the appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit and proposes the countermeasure suggestions of applying the system, which include strengthening reservoir management benefit idea, innovating organization structure and improving the reservoir management responsibility system.
In brief, the establishment and application of oil-producing factory’s appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit can realize the joint of appraisal and forecast of reservoir management benefit. It is helpful to the comprehension and grasp of reservoir development tendency and the prompt discovery and diagnosis of the problems in reservoir management. Based on it, scientific forecast and effective regulation of the tendency of oil-producing factory’s input and output can provide the effective methods and decision-making basis for appraising oil-producing factory’s present situation, clearing development target and instructing production management practice.
引文
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