节能省地型住宅发展系统评价与仿真研究
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摘要
“民以食为天,人以居为重”,这句中国民间古训充分说明了居住的重要性。衣、食、住是有史以来人类生存的最基本生活资料,由此人类文化才得以延续和发展。随着社会的进步,人们在大自然所建造的住宅,已不仅仅是遮风避雨、隔热御寒、繁衍后代的栖身之处,同时还是人与自然相互联系的桥梁,是人类历史文脉得以传承的载体。然而,在住宅日新月异的同时,也带来了诸如效率地下、资源匮乏、环境恶化等问题。由此,中国政府从战略发展的高度出发,新近提出了一种具有中国特色的可持续建筑理念——节能省地型住宅。
当前,在大力发展和推广节能、节地、节水、节材和环境保护建筑技术创新的时代,基于管理学、经济学和系统学的节能省地型住宅发展研究成果较少。诚然,四节一环保建筑技术研究的重要性是不容置疑的;但是,如果能在保证技术研究先进性的前提下,强化管理意识、提高管理策略和管理创新,这对于我国节能省地型住宅长期、稳定、持续的发展,是十分有益的。
因此,论文按照从实践认识到理论探索,再到实践运用的基本逻辑与线索,就节能省地型住宅发展的理论框架、综合评价、仿真模拟及实践应用等方面问题展开了深入细致的研究,并试图有所突破和创新,主要完成的研究工作及取得的研究成果如下:
首先,在明确研究目的、背景和意义的前提下,通过大量的文献检索和调查研究,从节能省地型住宅发展的概念、内涵出发,探讨了其系统理论、目标与运行框架、发展机理及承载力等基础理论。
其次,在基础理论研究基础上,对节能省地型住宅发展的公平性、持续性和协调性进行了系统分析,以期能与基础理论一起为节能省地型住宅发展研究建构一套理论体系。
第三,在明确节能省地型住宅发展综合评价的目标、原则、特点、内容与流程等理论的基础上,综合运用频度统计、专家调查和理论分析等方法,尝试性地建立了一套较为合理、有效的评价指标体系,推导出了节能省地型住宅发展综合评价的多级模糊模式识别模型。
第四,在界定系统建模目的与系统边界的基础上,运用系统动力学方法,构造了系统总体框架和模型结构,分析了系统因果关系,确定模型变量的类型与方程式,构建了节能省地型住宅发展系统动力学模型,还探讨了节能省地型住宅发展系统仿真平台开发等有关问题。
最后,以重庆市为例进行了详细、深入而具体的实证研究,提出了具有非常重要参考价值的对策建议。
论文创新之处体现在:借鉴相关理论知识,对节能省地型住宅发展研究理论体系进行了深入、系统而全面的梳理和分析,建构了一套较为完整的理论框架体系;通过专家咨询、理论分析和频度统计等方法,构建了一套节能省地型住宅发展评价指标体系,并借鉴模糊模式识别理论,推导出了多级别多层次模糊综合评价模型;运用系统动力学方法,经系统边界划分、系统结构分析和因果反馈分析等,建立了节能省地型住宅发展仿真模拟模型;最后运用上述研究成果,以重庆市为例进行了开创性实证研究。
Conventional wisdom quoted as saying that“The people take food as their prime want, and house is the essential necessity”, which vulgarism illuminates the importance of housing sufficiently. Clothing, eating and housing are the basic necessities of life. So the human civilization can continue and develop. With the development of society, housing is not only the place of inhabiting, but also the bridge which connects human and nature. Meanwhile, housing is the carrier for spreading human history. However, it also brings out some problems such as inefficient productivity, resource scarcity and deterioration of environment. In that, the government of China put forward the energy and land saving housing from strategic developing level, which is a sustainable architecture idea with Chinese characteristic.
Currently, the energy and land saving housing which is based on management, economics and system theory is short of research in the era of spreading new construction technology exemplified by energy saving, land saving, water saving, material saving and environmental protection techniques. It is no doubt that such new techniques mentioned above is of great importance. There is also help for long-term sustainable development of energy and land saving housing of China from the prospective of strengthen management awareness, enhance management plots and innovation under the precondition that technology study is ahead of peers.
On this condition, the thesis studies theory of establishing, comprehensive evaluation, simulation and application thoroughly according to the logic clue which is from practice cognition to theory exploration and followed by practice application. Based on the framework above, the author tries to innovating at the theory of establishing, comprehensive evaluation and system simulation. Main works and conclusions of study are illustrated in the following paragraphs.
Firstly, under the pre-requirements of clarifying the aim, background and signification of the research, it discusses the conception and implication of the development of energy and land saving housing through substantive literature searching and investigation. In addition, it researches the basic theories of objects, operational framework, developmental mechanism, durative theory and its systematic prospective.
Secondly, the thesis carries on a systematic analysis on equitableness, durative and coordination of the development of energy and land saving housing on the basis of fundamental theory study with the expectation of establishing a theoretical system with basic theories for the study of development of energy and land saving housing.
Thirdly, the thesis tentatively establishes a relatively reasonable and effective evaluation index system by synthetically employing frequency statistic, expert investigation and theoretic analysis. Furthermore, it puts forward a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, on the foundation of clarification the aim, principle, specialty, contents and process of comprehensive evaluation system for the development of energy and land saving housing.
Fourthly, by using system dynamics theory and defining the modeling aim and system boundary, the thesis constructs a system framework and model structure, analyses the system causality, confirms variables of the model, establishes the system dynamics model for energy and land saving housing development, and also discusses the development of system simulation platform.
Finally, the thesis offers some suggestions with special value for reference by a case study of Chongqing.
The innovations of the thesis are represented that it establishes a relative integrated theoretical framework to give a thoroughly and systematic study of the energy and land saving housing development theories by referring related researches. Meanwhile, it constructs an evaluation system by Delphi method, theoretical analysis and frequency statistics and educes a multi-grade fuzzy assessment model as well as a simulation model by utilizing system dynamics, defining system structure and causality feedback analysis. Finally, it initiates a positive case study exemplified by Chongqing.
当前,在大力发展和推广节能、节地、节水、节材和环境保护建筑技术创新的时代,基于管理学、经济学和系统学的节能省地型住宅发展研究成果较少。诚然,四节一环保建筑技术研究的重要性是不容置疑的;但是,如果能在保证技术研究先进性的前提下,强化管理意识、提高管理策略和管理创新,这对于我国节能省地型住宅长期、稳定、持续的发展,是十分有益的。
因此,论文按照从实践认识到理论探索,再到实践运用的基本逻辑与线索,就节能省地型住宅发展的理论框架、综合评价、仿真模拟及实践应用等方面问题展开了深入细致的研究,并试图有所突破和创新,主要完成的研究工作及取得的研究成果如下:
首先,在明确研究目的、背景和意义的前提下,通过大量的文献检索和调查研究,从节能省地型住宅发展的概念、内涵出发,探讨了其系统理论、目标与运行框架、发展机理及承载力等基础理论。
其次,在基础理论研究基础上,对节能省地型住宅发展的公平性、持续性和协调性进行了系统分析,以期能与基础理论一起为节能省地型住宅发展研究建构一套理论体系。
第三,在明确节能省地型住宅发展综合评价的目标、原则、特点、内容与流程等理论的基础上,综合运用频度统计、专家调查和理论分析等方法,尝试性地建立了一套较为合理、有效的评价指标体系,推导出了节能省地型住宅发展综合评价的多级模糊模式识别模型。
第四,在界定系统建模目的与系统边界的基础上,运用系统动力学方法,构造了系统总体框架和模型结构,分析了系统因果关系,确定模型变量的类型与方程式,构建了节能省地型住宅发展系统动力学模型,还探讨了节能省地型住宅发展系统仿真平台开发等有关问题。
最后,以重庆市为例进行了详细、深入而具体的实证研究,提出了具有非常重要参考价值的对策建议。
论文创新之处体现在:借鉴相关理论知识,对节能省地型住宅发展研究理论体系进行了深入、系统而全面的梳理和分析,建构了一套较为完整的理论框架体系;通过专家咨询、理论分析和频度统计等方法,构建了一套节能省地型住宅发展评价指标体系,并借鉴模糊模式识别理论,推导出了多级别多层次模糊综合评价模型;运用系统动力学方法,经系统边界划分、系统结构分析和因果反馈分析等,建立了节能省地型住宅发展仿真模拟模型;最后运用上述研究成果,以重庆市为例进行了开创性实证研究。
Conventional wisdom quoted as saying that“The people take food as their prime want, and house is the essential necessity”, which vulgarism illuminates the importance of housing sufficiently. Clothing, eating and housing are the basic necessities of life. So the human civilization can continue and develop. With the development of society, housing is not only the place of inhabiting, but also the bridge which connects human and nature. Meanwhile, housing is the carrier for spreading human history. However, it also brings out some problems such as inefficient productivity, resource scarcity and deterioration of environment. In that, the government of China put forward the energy and land saving housing from strategic developing level, which is a sustainable architecture idea with Chinese characteristic.
Currently, the energy and land saving housing which is based on management, economics and system theory is short of research in the era of spreading new construction technology exemplified by energy saving, land saving, water saving, material saving and environmental protection techniques. It is no doubt that such new techniques mentioned above is of great importance. There is also help for long-term sustainable development of energy and land saving housing of China from the prospective of strengthen management awareness, enhance management plots and innovation under the precondition that technology study is ahead of peers.
On this condition, the thesis studies theory of establishing, comprehensive evaluation, simulation and application thoroughly according to the logic clue which is from practice cognition to theory exploration and followed by practice application. Based on the framework above, the author tries to innovating at the theory of establishing, comprehensive evaluation and system simulation. Main works and conclusions of study are illustrated in the following paragraphs.
Firstly, under the pre-requirements of clarifying the aim, background and signification of the research, it discusses the conception and implication of the development of energy and land saving housing through substantive literature searching and investigation. In addition, it researches the basic theories of objects, operational framework, developmental mechanism, durative theory and its systematic prospective.
Secondly, the thesis carries on a systematic analysis on equitableness, durative and coordination of the development of energy and land saving housing on the basis of fundamental theory study with the expectation of establishing a theoretical system with basic theories for the study of development of energy and land saving housing.
Thirdly, the thesis tentatively establishes a relatively reasonable and effective evaluation index system by synthetically employing frequency statistic, expert investigation and theoretic analysis. Furthermore, it puts forward a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, on the foundation of clarification the aim, principle, specialty, contents and process of comprehensive evaluation system for the development of energy and land saving housing.
Fourthly, by using system dynamics theory and defining the modeling aim and system boundary, the thesis constructs a system framework and model structure, analyses the system causality, confirms variables of the model, establishes the system dynamics model for energy and land saving housing development, and also discusses the development of system simulation platform.
Finally, the thesis offers some suggestions with special value for reference by a case study of Chongqing.
The innovations of the thesis are represented that it establishes a relative integrated theoretical framework to give a thoroughly and systematic study of the energy and land saving housing development theories by referring related researches. Meanwhile, it constructs an evaluation system by Delphi method, theoretical analysis and frequency statistics and educes a multi-grade fuzzy assessment model as well as a simulation model by utilizing system dynamics, defining system structure and causality feedback analysis. Finally, it initiates a positive case study exemplified by Chongqing.
引文
①人均住宅建筑面积数据来源于中华人民共和国国家统计局,中国统计年鉴(2006),北京:中国统计出版社。
②资料来源同上。
①《马克思恩格斯选集》人民出版社1972年版,第2卷,第495页。
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