中国技术进步的就业效应研究
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摘要
技术进步所形成的巨大物质力量加快了我国新型工业化的建设步伐,推动着社会的发展,使社会的产业结构、劳动方式发生了巨大变化,同时对社会就业总量和结构产生影响。目前关于技术进步的就业效应的理论观点不尽一致,尤其是关于技术进步对就业具有的双面效应存在着较大的分歧。就业乃民生之本,在目前我国就业形势日趋严峻的形势下,本文致力于分析技术进步的就业效应,从而兼顾技术进步与社会就业的关系,采取技术进步对就业的促进策略。
首先,本文在国内外研究的基础上,选取技术进步就业效应的相关媒介因素,即经济增长因素、人口因素和教育因素,分别从企业、产业和宏观社会三个层面分析技术进步的作用机理,探求技术进步是如何结合其他相关因素对社会就业产生影响的,分析技术机制、经济机制和社会机制对就业的综合作用,构建了技术进步就业效应的理论框架。
其次,通过技术进步对就业影响的积极与消极因素的分析,归纳出技术进步对就业的拉动效应逐年递减的原因,主要在于我国科技投入对经济增长和社会就业的拉动作用均不明显,减弱了其对就业的促进作用;技术进步引起的产业结构转型中,由于教育投入与社会需求脱节,劳动力的素质和技能不足以满足产业转型的需求,使产业结构与就业结构失衡,社会失业问题更加严重。
再次,本文通过模型的建立和定量分析对我国区域技术进步的就业效应进行了验证,得出科技与教育的叠加投入与就业总量呈正相关关系的结论。一是在我国各地区的统计数据的基础上,运用经济计量学软件进行回归模型的估计、修正与检验。同时,基于Panal Data对截面时间序列数据模型进行了估计。二是采用ArcGis、Geoda软件,通过就业人口数量的泰尔指数分解、就业的地理均衡指数和就业指标的空间自相关性分析,探讨技术进步就业的空间效应。三是实证分析科教投入对城镇女性就业的影响。
最后,论文从均衡发展的技术进步模式、合理配置的科教投入、兼顾区域发展的差异性和完善就业社会保障四个方面讨论了技术进步对就业的促进策略。
论文认为,技术进步的就业效应的理论框架应该从企业、产业和宏观层面进行分析,同时技术进步与就业的关系应与经济增长、人口和教育等相关因素综合考虑;由于我国地域辽阔,各地区之间差异较大,因此不仅要从全国整体的角度分析技术进步对就业的影响,还应该考虑到不同地区技术进步对就业的影响;我国女性在下岗和失业人数中占多数,因此技术进步对城镇单位女性就业效应的影响是提出对策建议的重要依据。
The technological progress has created the enormous substantial strength which speeding up the pace of the construction of Chinese new industrialization and promoting the development of society; Eventually, the irreversible changes of the structure of society and the labor mode have taken place. Meanwhile, it influences the social structure and total quantity of employment. Currently, the employment effects which on the technological progress in theory are not come to terms, particularly on the technological progress to the employment which has double-faced effects. Employment is an essence of the principle of people's livelihood. In light of turning "grim" under the employment situation, this dissertation analyses the employment effects of the technological progress in order to take both of the technological progress and the employment into consideration and adopt the employment promotion countermeasures under the conditions of technological progress.
First of all, this dissertation is based on the studies both from home and abroad to select media-related factors, namely the economic-growth factors, demographic factors and educational factors, it analyses the mechanism of technological progress in the perspective of enterprise, industry and macro-society, it aims to find out how the technological progress cooperate with other relevant factors to affect the employment in the society, and the comprehensive influence of the technological mechanism, the economical mechanism and the social mechanism to the employment, building up an theoretical framework of the technological progress-employment effects.
Secondly, based on the analysis of the positive and negative factors of employment effects, this dissertation concluded the main reasons of the technological progress to deducing-employment lies in invisible affection of our technological investment on the economical growth and social employment, which reduces its positive role in employment; the disjunction of educational investment and social demand during the industrial structure transformation caused by the technological progress leads that the labor quality and skill could not meet the need of industrial structure transformation, which makes the imbalance of industrial and employment structure. As a result, the problem of unemployment tends to be worse.
Thirdly, on the basis of modeling and quantitative analysis, this dissertation probes into the technological progress-employment effects regionally in China, accordingly gets a result that there is a positive correlation between the superposition input of science, technology as well as education and total employment. First, it estimates, amends and checkout the regression model by econometric software, according to the statistics gathered regionally. Meanwhile, it estimates the statistical model of cross-sectional time series based on Panal data; Second, it studies the technological progress-employment space effects according to Theil index decomposition of the amounts of employed population, geographical equilibrium of employed population and local indicators of spatial association of employment rate of provinces by ArcGis and Geoda; Third, it analyzes the effects of scientific and technological education investment on the female employment in China urban units.
Finally, the dissertation discusses the technical advancement on the employment strategy in four areas: the balanced development model of technological progress; the rational allocation investment of scientific and technological education; the development of taking account of the regional differences and the improvement social security of the employment.
From the point of view of this dissertation, the theoretical framework of the technological progress-employment effects should be analyzed from macro-society level, industries level and enterprises level, while technological progress and employment relationship should take the economic growth, population and education and other related factors into consideration. Due to the vast territory of our country and the large regional differences among regions, we should not only focus on effect which the technological progress to the employment from the overall angle but also different regions of the impact on the employment. What is more, the majority of lay-off and unemployed are women in our country, therefore the effects of technological progress on female employment in urban units is the proposals which could put forward an important basis for the employment promotion countermeasures.
首先,本文在国内外研究的基础上,选取技术进步就业效应的相关媒介因素,即经济增长因素、人口因素和教育因素,分别从企业、产业和宏观社会三个层面分析技术进步的作用机理,探求技术进步是如何结合其他相关因素对社会就业产生影响的,分析技术机制、经济机制和社会机制对就业的综合作用,构建了技术进步就业效应的理论框架。
其次,通过技术进步对就业影响的积极与消极因素的分析,归纳出技术进步对就业的拉动效应逐年递减的原因,主要在于我国科技投入对经济增长和社会就业的拉动作用均不明显,减弱了其对就业的促进作用;技术进步引起的产业结构转型中,由于教育投入与社会需求脱节,劳动力的素质和技能不足以满足产业转型的需求,使产业结构与就业结构失衡,社会失业问题更加严重。
再次,本文通过模型的建立和定量分析对我国区域技术进步的就业效应进行了验证,得出科技与教育的叠加投入与就业总量呈正相关关系的结论。一是在我国各地区的统计数据的基础上,运用经济计量学软件进行回归模型的估计、修正与检验。同时,基于Panal Data对截面时间序列数据模型进行了估计。二是采用ArcGis、Geoda软件,通过就业人口数量的泰尔指数分解、就业的地理均衡指数和就业指标的空间自相关性分析,探讨技术进步就业的空间效应。三是实证分析科教投入对城镇女性就业的影响。
最后,论文从均衡发展的技术进步模式、合理配置的科教投入、兼顾区域发展的差异性和完善就业社会保障四个方面讨论了技术进步对就业的促进策略。
论文认为,技术进步的就业效应的理论框架应该从企业、产业和宏观层面进行分析,同时技术进步与就业的关系应与经济增长、人口和教育等相关因素综合考虑;由于我国地域辽阔,各地区之间差异较大,因此不仅要从全国整体的角度分析技术进步对就业的影响,还应该考虑到不同地区技术进步对就业的影响;我国女性在下岗和失业人数中占多数,因此技术进步对城镇单位女性就业效应的影响是提出对策建议的重要依据。
The technological progress has created the enormous substantial strength which speeding up the pace of the construction of Chinese new industrialization and promoting the development of society; Eventually, the irreversible changes of the structure of society and the labor mode have taken place. Meanwhile, it influences the social structure and total quantity of employment. Currently, the employment effects which on the technological progress in theory are not come to terms, particularly on the technological progress to the employment which has double-faced effects. Employment is an essence of the principle of people's livelihood. In light of turning "grim" under the employment situation, this dissertation analyses the employment effects of the technological progress in order to take both of the technological progress and the employment into consideration and adopt the employment promotion countermeasures under the conditions of technological progress.
First of all, this dissertation is based on the studies both from home and abroad to select media-related factors, namely the economic-growth factors, demographic factors and educational factors, it analyses the mechanism of technological progress in the perspective of enterprise, industry and macro-society, it aims to find out how the technological progress cooperate with other relevant factors to affect the employment in the society, and the comprehensive influence of the technological mechanism, the economical mechanism and the social mechanism to the employment, building up an theoretical framework of the technological progress-employment effects.
Secondly, based on the analysis of the positive and negative factors of employment effects, this dissertation concluded the main reasons of the technological progress to deducing-employment lies in invisible affection of our technological investment on the economical growth and social employment, which reduces its positive role in employment; the disjunction of educational investment and social demand during the industrial structure transformation caused by the technological progress leads that the labor quality and skill could not meet the need of industrial structure transformation, which makes the imbalance of industrial and employment structure. As a result, the problem of unemployment tends to be worse.
Thirdly, on the basis of modeling and quantitative analysis, this dissertation probes into the technological progress-employment effects regionally in China, accordingly gets a result that there is a positive correlation between the superposition input of science, technology as well as education and total employment. First, it estimates, amends and checkout the regression model by econometric software, according to the statistics gathered regionally. Meanwhile, it estimates the statistical model of cross-sectional time series based on Panal data; Second, it studies the technological progress-employment space effects according to Theil index decomposition of the amounts of employed population, geographical equilibrium of employed population and local indicators of spatial association of employment rate of provinces by ArcGis and Geoda; Third, it analyzes the effects of scientific and technological education investment on the female employment in China urban units.
Finally, the dissertation discusses the technical advancement on the employment strategy in four areas: the balanced development model of technological progress; the rational allocation investment of scientific and technological education; the development of taking account of the regional differences and the improvement social security of the employment.
From the point of view of this dissertation, the theoretical framework of the technological progress-employment effects should be analyzed from macro-society level, industries level and enterprises level, while technological progress and employment relationship should take the economic growth, population and education and other related factors into consideration. Due to the vast territory of our country and the large regional differences among regions, we should not only focus on effect which the technological progress to the employment from the overall angle but also different regions of the impact on the employment. What is more, the majority of lay-off and unemployed are women in our country, therefore the effects of technological progress on female employment in urban units is the proposals which could put forward an important basis for the employment promotion countermeasures.
引文
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