中国转型时期城镇反贫困政策评估
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摘要
我国大规模的城镇贫困人口是伴随着市场化改革而产生的,尤其是20世纪90年代中期以来,随着我国经济的急剧转型,城镇贫困问题开始凸显。政府也相应地出台了促进就业和经济增长等宏观发展战略层面和城市居民最低生活保障制度等专项制度层面的一系列反贫困政策来缓解城镇贫困问题。基于此,本文借鉴国内外一些科学的政策评估技术和方法,结合我国城镇居民家庭调查数据,从宏观和微观两个层面来评估我国转型时期城镇反贫困政策的功效,为城镇反贫困政策的改进和完善提供理论依据。
所有经济政策对贫困的影响最终都体现在贫困指数的变化上,因此贫困指数是反贫困政策评估的依据和前提。本文首先简要介绍了一些常用的贫困指数的含义、特征和计算方法。文章利用的贫困指数主要有以下两类:(1)F-G-T贫困指数。这是人们最常用的贫困指数,可以进一步分解为贫困发生率、贫困距比率和平方贫困距比率三个贫困指数,可依次用来反映贫困的广度、深度和强度。(2)瓦特贫困指数和由此而来的脱贫时间指数。这两个贫困指数都是对贫困人口内部收入分配敏感的指数,并且脱贫时间指数具有非常直观的意义。这两类共5个贫困指数具有不同的特征和侧重点,可以从不同角度来衡量反贫困政策的效果。
文章第一部分是对宏观发展战略和政策或者预防性政策的反贫困效果的评估。经济增长是减少贫困的持续动力,但其减贫效果受到收入分配不平等的影响。这部分内容定量分析了1980年以来我国城镇经济增长、收入不平等和贫困的关系,从F-G-T贫困指数和脱贫时间指数两个角度实证测算了城镇经济增长的减贫效果。结果发现,经济增长的减贫效果是递减的,不平等的负面影响越来越大,因此仅靠经济增长本身无法自动消除贫困。我国的城镇贫困也是与城市化进程相伴的,现有的和今后持续的城市化进程会影响城乡内部和全国总体的贫困变化,文章最后通过贫困的四要素分解模型揭示了城市化对于城镇贫困以及总体贫困的影响:城市化进程可能在一定程度上加重了城镇贫困,但却在很大程度上减轻了我国的城乡总体贫困,其作用仅次于经济增长。
文章的第二部分评估了全球化对我国城镇贫困的影响。中国经济持续增长的源泉除了内部的经济体制改革外,对外开放也是另一主要因素。但理论模型表明,对外开放或者全球化对贫困的影响是很不确定的。本文接着在疏理全球化影响贫困的机制和途径后,采用协整分析的方法实证检验了FDI和出口贸易对我国城镇贫困的影响:FDI提高了城镇贫困人口的收入份额但使他们内部的收入分配差距扩大;相反,出口贸易降低了城镇贫困人口的收入份额但缩小了其内部的收入差距。我国的城镇贫困主要集中在中西部地区,而中部地区的全球化进程和体制转轨过程要快于西部地区,因此本文进一步以中部6省作为样本,分析了全球化以及工业化和民营化进程与城镇贫困的关系,并着重考察了其中的非线性关系。结果发现,在中部6省,FDI与城镇贫困之间存在着非线性关系:只有当FDI达到一定水平后,FDI才会减轻贫困。
文章第三部分是对微观或者补偿性经济政策的反贫困效果的评估。既然经济增长本身一般无法根除贫困,那么一些具体的事后的补偿性的经济政策或者社会保障政策和制度对缓解贫困而言就是不可或缺的。这部分内容分三章依次评估了城市居民最低生活保障制度、城镇廉租住房制度和城镇医疗救助制度的运行效果。相对而言,城市居民最低生活保障制度比较系统和完善,覆盖面和救助力度较高,廉租住房制度和城镇医疗救助制度还处于试点和探索阶段。总体看来,这三项政策虽然在一定程度上减轻了城镇贫困问题,为城镇贫困人口的吃饭、住房和医疗提供了一些基本的保障,但由于资金短缺和运作不规范,还不足以为所有城镇贫困人口提供全面的基本保障,也不能够防止贫困人口从暂时性贫困陷入持久性贫困。
国内对城镇反贫困政策的评估的研究多而零散。本文研究的特别之处首先在于方法论,本文采用了国外一些比较科学的评估技术和方法,如减贫经济增长、贫困的四要素分解模型等。其次在于贫困指数的选择,除了人们常用的F-G-T指数外,还首次采用了具有良好特性和直观意义的脱贫时间指数,从而准确地揭示了经济增长、收入分配和贫困之间的关系。第三,在研究框架上,把城镇贫困纳入到全国总体的框架中,这对于国家层面的反贫困政策的制定提供了理论依据。
城镇反贫困政策的评估的研究,目的在于揭示近二十多年来尤其是1990年代经济社会转型以来的反贫困政策的运行效果,从而为制定合理、规范和高效的反贫困政策提供理论依据。贫困问题是一个全球性和现实性的问题,从相对意义上看,将长期存在,并且在城市化进程加速过程中,贫困将越来越多地表现为城镇贫困。因此,这个领域的研究将具有长期性和动态性。另外,随着我国社会保障向农村的延伸(如农村最低生活保障制度和农村医疗救助制度的试点和推广),本文研究的结果对于新时期农村反贫困问题也具有很强的启发和借鉴。
Chinese urban poverty occurred after its market-oriented reform, especially became more serious since the mid1990s along with the rapid economic transition. In order to release the urban poverty, a series of anti-poverty policies have been proposed by the governments at all levels, including macro policies and institutions for the employment and economic growth, as well as micro policies and institutions for the minimum living security of urban resident. Based on this, aiming to evaluate the effeciency of urban anti-poverty policies from macro and micro aspects and provide theoretical basis for the improvement of anti-poverty policies, the foreign and domestic evaluation techniques and tools are used combining with the survey data of Chinese urban residents.
The effects of every economic policy on poverty are expressed on the variation of poverty indice, which are the foundation and premise for evaluation, so the meanings, characteristics and calculating methods of some major poverty indice are introduced in this paper at first. The poverty indice in this paper can be divided into two types: (1) F-G-T poverty index. It is the most frequently used one, which can be further divided into three indice: poverty incidence rate, poverty gap rate and squared poverty gap rate. They can respectively reflect the extension, depth and intensity of poverty. (2) Watts poverty index and exit time index derived from Watts poverty index. Both of which are sensitive to the income distribution of poverty population, and the latter is very meaningful. There are different characteristics and emphasises in these five poverty indice of two types, so the effects of anti-poverty policies can be evaluated from different aspects.
The first section of this dissertation is the evaluation of the impacts of macroeconomic or preventive economic policies on the urban poverty. Economic growth is the sustained power for poverty reduction, but the effects are determined by income distribution. Firstly, the relation among economic growth, income inequality and poverty in Chiese urban since 1980 are quantitatively analysed. Secondly, the impacts of economic growth on poverty are calculated by both F-G-T index and exit time index. The results show that the rate of poverty reduction through growth is marginally diminishing, and the adverse effects of income inequality on poverty reduction become greater and greater, so poverty can not be alleviated automaticly only by economic growth itself. Chinese urban poverty is also accompanied with citiziaton, the latter will influce rural, urban and nation’s poverty. Finally, the impacts of citization on urban and nation’s poverty are evaluated by four factors decomposition method in this paper. Citization aggravates the urban poverty to some extent, but alleviates the nation’s poverty to a great extent.
The second section of this dissertation is the evaluation on the globalization on the urban poverty in China. Besides economic institution reform, opening up is another important resource of Chinese economic growth, but the effects of opening up or globalization on poverty are ambiguous. The impacts of FDI and export trade on Chinese urban poverty are also measured through co-intergration analysis, which indicates that FDI increases the income shares of poverty population, but enlarges the income distribution within them; in contrast, export trade decreases the income shares of poverty population, and reduces income inequality within them too. Chinese urban poverty is more serious in middle and west regions, and the globalization and transition of middle region are faster than those of west region. Therefore, the impacts of globalization, industrization and privatization on urban poverty are also measured with the data of six middle provinces in this paper, and particular attention is paid to the non-linearity between them. As seen from the results, there is non-linearity between FDI and urban poverty. Only after FDI reaches a certain level will it reduce the urban povety.
The third section of this dissertation is the evaluation on the impacts of microeconomic or compensatory policies on urban poverty. Since poverty can not be alleviated automatically by economic growth itself, the concrete compensatory policies and institutions, such as urban resident minimum living security, low-rent housing policy and social medical assistance, are essential for poverty reduction. This section sequentially evaluates the effects of the above three policies. The minimum living security is more systemtic and perfect, and low-rent housing policy and social medical assistance are only on trial. Generally speaking, the three policies can provide some basic service for food, housing and health for urban poverty population, but for the sake of money shortage and management, these policies can neither meet the basic demands for all the urban poverty population, nor prohibit temporary poverty population falling into permanent poverty.
This paper is different from other similar studies. Firstly, this paper uses scientific and suitable evaluation techniques and methods, such as poverty equivalent growth rate proposed by Kakwani (2004) and four factors decomposition of poverty indice proposed by Son (2003). Secondly, this paper chooses five poverty indice, which contain F-G-T index and exit time index. Exit time index is very meaningful and meets many axioms. Thirdly, urban poverty are analysed based on unified framework of city and country, providing theoretical basis for the nation’anti-poverty policies.
The purpose of the researches on the evaluation on the impacts of anti-poverty policies is to reflect the effects of the policies in the latest twenty years, especially in the period of transition, and to provide theoretical basis for establishing reasonable, normalized and efficient anti-poverty policies. The issue of poverty is global and realistic, and will exist forever in relative meanings. During the period of citization, poverty will be focused on urban regions. So the research on urban poverty will be in long-run and dynamics. On the other hand, along with the Chinese social system extending to rural regions, the findings in this paper can also have strong implication for the analysis of rural poverty in the new times.
所有经济政策对贫困的影响最终都体现在贫困指数的变化上,因此贫困指数是反贫困政策评估的依据和前提。本文首先简要介绍了一些常用的贫困指数的含义、特征和计算方法。文章利用的贫困指数主要有以下两类:(1)F-G-T贫困指数。这是人们最常用的贫困指数,可以进一步分解为贫困发生率、贫困距比率和平方贫困距比率三个贫困指数,可依次用来反映贫困的广度、深度和强度。(2)瓦特贫困指数和由此而来的脱贫时间指数。这两个贫困指数都是对贫困人口内部收入分配敏感的指数,并且脱贫时间指数具有非常直观的意义。这两类共5个贫困指数具有不同的特征和侧重点,可以从不同角度来衡量反贫困政策的效果。
文章第一部分是对宏观发展战略和政策或者预防性政策的反贫困效果的评估。经济增长是减少贫困的持续动力,但其减贫效果受到收入分配不平等的影响。这部分内容定量分析了1980年以来我国城镇经济增长、收入不平等和贫困的关系,从F-G-T贫困指数和脱贫时间指数两个角度实证测算了城镇经济增长的减贫效果。结果发现,经济增长的减贫效果是递减的,不平等的负面影响越来越大,因此仅靠经济增长本身无法自动消除贫困。我国的城镇贫困也是与城市化进程相伴的,现有的和今后持续的城市化进程会影响城乡内部和全国总体的贫困变化,文章最后通过贫困的四要素分解模型揭示了城市化对于城镇贫困以及总体贫困的影响:城市化进程可能在一定程度上加重了城镇贫困,但却在很大程度上减轻了我国的城乡总体贫困,其作用仅次于经济增长。
文章的第二部分评估了全球化对我国城镇贫困的影响。中国经济持续增长的源泉除了内部的经济体制改革外,对外开放也是另一主要因素。但理论模型表明,对外开放或者全球化对贫困的影响是很不确定的。本文接着在疏理全球化影响贫困的机制和途径后,采用协整分析的方法实证检验了FDI和出口贸易对我国城镇贫困的影响:FDI提高了城镇贫困人口的收入份额但使他们内部的收入分配差距扩大;相反,出口贸易降低了城镇贫困人口的收入份额但缩小了其内部的收入差距。我国的城镇贫困主要集中在中西部地区,而中部地区的全球化进程和体制转轨过程要快于西部地区,因此本文进一步以中部6省作为样本,分析了全球化以及工业化和民营化进程与城镇贫困的关系,并着重考察了其中的非线性关系。结果发现,在中部6省,FDI与城镇贫困之间存在着非线性关系:只有当FDI达到一定水平后,FDI才会减轻贫困。
文章第三部分是对微观或者补偿性经济政策的反贫困效果的评估。既然经济增长本身一般无法根除贫困,那么一些具体的事后的补偿性的经济政策或者社会保障政策和制度对缓解贫困而言就是不可或缺的。这部分内容分三章依次评估了城市居民最低生活保障制度、城镇廉租住房制度和城镇医疗救助制度的运行效果。相对而言,城市居民最低生活保障制度比较系统和完善,覆盖面和救助力度较高,廉租住房制度和城镇医疗救助制度还处于试点和探索阶段。总体看来,这三项政策虽然在一定程度上减轻了城镇贫困问题,为城镇贫困人口的吃饭、住房和医疗提供了一些基本的保障,但由于资金短缺和运作不规范,还不足以为所有城镇贫困人口提供全面的基本保障,也不能够防止贫困人口从暂时性贫困陷入持久性贫困。
国内对城镇反贫困政策的评估的研究多而零散。本文研究的特别之处首先在于方法论,本文采用了国外一些比较科学的评估技术和方法,如减贫经济增长、贫困的四要素分解模型等。其次在于贫困指数的选择,除了人们常用的F-G-T指数外,还首次采用了具有良好特性和直观意义的脱贫时间指数,从而准确地揭示了经济增长、收入分配和贫困之间的关系。第三,在研究框架上,把城镇贫困纳入到全国总体的框架中,这对于国家层面的反贫困政策的制定提供了理论依据。
城镇反贫困政策的评估的研究,目的在于揭示近二十多年来尤其是1990年代经济社会转型以来的反贫困政策的运行效果,从而为制定合理、规范和高效的反贫困政策提供理论依据。贫困问题是一个全球性和现实性的问题,从相对意义上看,将长期存在,并且在城市化进程加速过程中,贫困将越来越多地表现为城镇贫困。因此,这个领域的研究将具有长期性和动态性。另外,随着我国社会保障向农村的延伸(如农村最低生活保障制度和农村医疗救助制度的试点和推广),本文研究的结果对于新时期农村反贫困问题也具有很强的启发和借鉴。
Chinese urban poverty occurred after its market-oriented reform, especially became more serious since the mid1990s along with the rapid economic transition. In order to release the urban poverty, a series of anti-poverty policies have been proposed by the governments at all levels, including macro policies and institutions for the employment and economic growth, as well as micro policies and institutions for the minimum living security of urban resident. Based on this, aiming to evaluate the effeciency of urban anti-poverty policies from macro and micro aspects and provide theoretical basis for the improvement of anti-poverty policies, the foreign and domestic evaluation techniques and tools are used combining with the survey data of Chinese urban residents.
The effects of every economic policy on poverty are expressed on the variation of poverty indice, which are the foundation and premise for evaluation, so the meanings, characteristics and calculating methods of some major poverty indice are introduced in this paper at first. The poverty indice in this paper can be divided into two types: (1) F-G-T poverty index. It is the most frequently used one, which can be further divided into three indice: poverty incidence rate, poverty gap rate and squared poverty gap rate. They can respectively reflect the extension, depth and intensity of poverty. (2) Watts poverty index and exit time index derived from Watts poverty index. Both of which are sensitive to the income distribution of poverty population, and the latter is very meaningful. There are different characteristics and emphasises in these five poverty indice of two types, so the effects of anti-poverty policies can be evaluated from different aspects.
The first section of this dissertation is the evaluation of the impacts of macroeconomic or preventive economic policies on the urban poverty. Economic growth is the sustained power for poverty reduction, but the effects are determined by income distribution. Firstly, the relation among economic growth, income inequality and poverty in Chiese urban since 1980 are quantitatively analysed. Secondly, the impacts of economic growth on poverty are calculated by both F-G-T index and exit time index. The results show that the rate of poverty reduction through growth is marginally diminishing, and the adverse effects of income inequality on poverty reduction become greater and greater, so poverty can not be alleviated automaticly only by economic growth itself. Chinese urban poverty is also accompanied with citiziaton, the latter will influce rural, urban and nation’s poverty. Finally, the impacts of citization on urban and nation’s poverty are evaluated by four factors decomposition method in this paper. Citization aggravates the urban poverty to some extent, but alleviates the nation’s poverty to a great extent.
The second section of this dissertation is the evaluation on the globalization on the urban poverty in China. Besides economic institution reform, opening up is another important resource of Chinese economic growth, but the effects of opening up or globalization on poverty are ambiguous. The impacts of FDI and export trade on Chinese urban poverty are also measured through co-intergration analysis, which indicates that FDI increases the income shares of poverty population, but enlarges the income distribution within them; in contrast, export trade decreases the income shares of poverty population, and reduces income inequality within them too. Chinese urban poverty is more serious in middle and west regions, and the globalization and transition of middle region are faster than those of west region. Therefore, the impacts of globalization, industrization and privatization on urban poverty are also measured with the data of six middle provinces in this paper, and particular attention is paid to the non-linearity between them. As seen from the results, there is non-linearity between FDI and urban poverty. Only after FDI reaches a certain level will it reduce the urban povety.
The third section of this dissertation is the evaluation on the impacts of microeconomic or compensatory policies on urban poverty. Since poverty can not be alleviated automatically by economic growth itself, the concrete compensatory policies and institutions, such as urban resident minimum living security, low-rent housing policy and social medical assistance, are essential for poverty reduction. This section sequentially evaluates the effects of the above three policies. The minimum living security is more systemtic and perfect, and low-rent housing policy and social medical assistance are only on trial. Generally speaking, the three policies can provide some basic service for food, housing and health for urban poverty population, but for the sake of money shortage and management, these policies can neither meet the basic demands for all the urban poverty population, nor prohibit temporary poverty population falling into permanent poverty.
This paper is different from other similar studies. Firstly, this paper uses scientific and suitable evaluation techniques and methods, such as poverty equivalent growth rate proposed by Kakwani (2004) and four factors decomposition of poverty indice proposed by Son (2003). Secondly, this paper chooses five poverty indice, which contain F-G-T index and exit time index. Exit time index is very meaningful and meets many axioms. Thirdly, urban poverty are analysed based on unified framework of city and country, providing theoretical basis for the nation’anti-poverty policies.
The purpose of the researches on the evaluation on the impacts of anti-poverty policies is to reflect the effects of the policies in the latest twenty years, especially in the period of transition, and to provide theoretical basis for establishing reasonable, normalized and efficient anti-poverty policies. The issue of poverty is global and realistic, and will exist forever in relative meanings. During the period of citization, poverty will be focused on urban regions. So the research on urban poverty will be in long-run and dynamics. On the other hand, along with the Chinese social system extending to rural regions, the findings in this paper can also have strong implication for the analysis of rural poverty in the new times.
引文
①关于这些评估技术和方法的详细内容可阅读《经济政策对贫困和收入分配的影响:评估技术和方法》,弗朗索瓦·布吉尼翁和路易斯·A·佩雷拉·达席尔瓦编著,中国人民大学出版社,2007。
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[23] H. Son, A new poverty decomposition, Working paper, 2003
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[35] Matsuyama K, Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth, Journal of Economic Theory, 1992, 58:317-334
[36] Mingione E., New urban poverty and crisis in the citizenship/welfare system: the Italian experience, Antipode, 1993,25:202-222
[37] Morduch, J., Poverty, economic growth and average exit time, Economic Letters, 1998, 59, 3: 385-390
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[39] Neef N., The new poverty and local government social policies: a west German perspective, International Journal of Urban and Region Research, 1993, 17:202-221
[40] Ravallion, M. and Datt, G., Growth and redistribution components of changes in poverty measures: a decompositions to Braizil and India in the 1980s, Journal of Development Economics, 1992, 38: 275-295
[41] Ravallion, M., Can high-inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty, Economics Letters, 1997, 56: 51-57
[42] Ravallion, M., Chen S., China’(uneven) progress against poverty, Policy Research Working Paper, 2004, 3408
[43] Ravallion, M., Chen, S., Measuring pro-poor growth, Economic Letters, 2003, 78,1:93-99
[44] Ravallion, M., Poverty comparisons: a guide to concepts and methods, Working Paper, 1992, 88
[45] Rivera-Batiz L, Romer P, Economic intergration and endogenous growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991, 106:531-556
[46] Rodriguez F, Rodric D, Trade policy and economic growth: a sceptic’s guide to the cross-national evidence, Working Paper, 1999, 2143, Centre for Economic Policy Research
[47] Romer P, New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions, Journal of Development Economics, 1994, 43: 5-38
[48] Rose A K, Spiegel M M, A gravity model of sovereign lending:Trade, default,and credit, IMF Staff Papers, 2004, 51: 50-63
[49] Rowntree S B., Poverty, a study of town life, Londo: Macmillan, 1901
[50] Sen, A. Poverty: an ordinal approach to measurement, Econometrica, 1976, 44, 2: 219-231
[51] Shorrocks, A., Decomposition procedures for distributional analysis: a unified framework based on the Shapley value, Mimeo,University of Essex, 1999
[52] Villasenor, J. B. C. Arnold., Elliptical Lorenz curves, Journal of Econometrics, 1989, 40,2: 327-338
[53] Villasenor, J., B. C. Arnold, The general quadratic Lorenz curve, Technical Report, Colegio de Postgraduados, Mexico City, Photocopy, 1984
[54] Wacziarg R, Measruing the dynamic gains from trade, Working Paper, 1998, 2001, the World Bank
[55] Watts, H., An economic definition of poverty, In Daniel P. Moynihan(Ed), New York: Basic Books, 1968
[56] White, H., Anderson, E., Growth versus Distribution: Does the pattern of growth matter? Mimeographed, Brighton: IDS, 2001
[57] Winters, L.A., Trade, trade policy, and poverty: what are the links? World Economy, 2001, 25, 9: 1339-67
[58] World Bank, Globalization, growth, and poverty, The World Bank, 2002, Washington DC
[59] Zheng, B., An exiomatic characterization of the Watts poverty index, Economic Letters, 1993, 42,1: 81-86
[60]巴曙松,张旭,王淼.中国廉租房的融资特征及其发展路径研究.西南金融,2006(10):8-10
[61]陈振明.公共政策分析.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002
[62]范言慧,段军山.外国直接投资与中国居民的收入分配.财经科学,2003(2):102-106
[63]冯宗容.廉租房运作机制评析及创新.经济体制改革,2002(3):160-164
[64]弗朗索瓦·布吉尼翁,路易斯·A·佩雷拉·达席尔瓦.经济政策对贫困和收入分配的影响:评估技术和方法.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007
[65]高红霞,夏芳珍.城镇贫困人口医疗保障问题研究.中国卫生事业管理,2004(6):348-350
[66]高阳,张静.我国城镇廉租住房制度构建的理论依据与现实基础.西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2003(10):45-49
[67]关信平.中国贫困问题研究.长沙:湖南人民出版社,1999
[68]郭婷婷.城镇贫困人口卫生服务状况及医疗保障研究:[硕士论文].山西医科大学,2006
[69]郭熙保.购买力平价与我国收入水平估计-兼评克拉维斯对中国收入的估计结果.管理世界,1998(4)
[70]康萍.我国住房补贴的理论分析与对策研究.企业经济,2004(9):17-19
[71]李实.中国城市中的三种贫困类型.经济研究,2002(10):47-58
[72]李实.中国城镇失业率的重新估计.经济学动态,2004(4):
[73]李实,邓曲恒.中国城镇失业和非正规再就业的经验研究.中国人口科学,2004(4):2-10
[74]李培林,张翼.消费分层:启动经济的一个重要视点.中国社会科学,2000(1):52-62
[75]李晓芳.住房补贴效率的分析.特区经济,2001(6):53-55
[76]李颖琰等.对“特困救助”实施效果的评价.中国卫生经济,2002(11)
[77]刘颖,陈怡男.关于合理制定廉租房补贴标准的思考.价格理论与实践,31-32
[78]刘颖.城镇贫困群体住房保障政策的经济效应论证.经济体制改革,2004(5):
[79] 45-48
[80]刘苓玲.各国社会医疗救助制度及其对建立我国城镇贫困人口社会医疗救助的启示.人口与经济,2006(1):65-70
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