网络环境下的企业危机预警模型及应用研究
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摘要
这是一个风险遍存、危机四伏的时代,危机正成为企业生存和发展过程中的一种伴生常态。互联网络的蓬勃发展,为信息传播提供了更为广阔的舞台。一方面,借助网络平台,企业能为用户和公众提供更加完善和个性化的服务;另一方面,由于网络传播的弱社会控制,在某种意义上,网络已经成为了某些负面信息的集散地,随着危机事件的爆发,网络扮演着传播加速器的角色,通过网络传播,危机快速扩散、广域蔓延、迅速升级恶化。
为此,必须加强网络环境下的企业危机预警理论的相关系列研究,并积极推动其在企业的应用和发展,以帮助企业实现网络环境下企业危机预警的及时、精准与高效,及时发出警报,为企业赢得时间,有效预防和化解危机。网络环境下的危机预警研究是现代企业危机管理中一个亟待深入而系统研究的重大课题。
全文的核心内容是:
(1)企业危机预警系统构建。从框架上构建了网络环境下的企业危机预警系统,分析并设计了系统各功能模块的具体职责,提出了网络环境下预警系统的建构程式,分析了网络环境下企业危机预警系统的运行理念、运行模式和工作流程。
(2)基于智能元搜索的企业危机预警监测模型研究。在分析企业危机网络传播结构和网络传播过程的基础上,系统分析并设计了网络传播智能元搜索引擎的预警监测工作模型,并重点研究了网络危机预警监测中的智能元搜索的用户个性化搜索模式和搜索引擎选择优化的实现策略,包括搜响应速度最快的搜索引擎选择策略、返回结果量最多的选择调度策略、成员搜索引擎性能评价选择调度策略、基于返回结果综合质量评价的选择调度策略。
(3)基于二评预警原理的企业危机信息评价模型研究。通过一评预警评价来确定危机是否是基于真实信息的危机,并计算危机总警度;二评则专门针对网络谣言评价并计算危机总警度。建构了网络传播危机预警信息二评组合模型,设计了网络危机预警一评指标和二评指标,从信息识别、信息追源、网络传播过程分析等角度分析了企业网络危机的传播结构。根据二评预警原理,应用模式识别理论方法判定企业网络危机的警度,运用灰色系统理论方法及技术预测企业网络危机的发展。
(4)企业网络危机评价实现及预警决策优化研究。企业危机面临众多的利益相关者,企业网络危机对各利益相关者都会产生深远影响。因此,需要结合企业危机预警的多重目标,采用多主体模糊综合评价法来实现企业网络危机对各利益相关者的综合评价。在企业危机预警决策及预案选择时,定标比超方法的引入是一个极佳的选择,通过企业危机预警领域有效的定标比超活动的开展,从多利益主体、竞争者和企业自身过往的同类危机决策中建立比超标杆,优化企业危机预警决策,提高企业危机预警决策的绩效和价值,实现危机常态化环境下企业的长远生存和发展。
Each enterprise will find its daily occurrence to face risk and crisis in its existence and development. The widespread of Internet has offered a broad stage full of information transmission. On one hand, the enterprises have facilitated a perfect and individual service for both consumers and public with the aid of the technique of networks; on the other hand, Internet has been to some extent a hub of certain negative information on account of social disorganization. With the outbreak of crisis, Internet has played the role of accelerating fake information. Rumors run rampant before the truth has been seriously investigated and revealed to the public because the internet is“too fast”.
Therefore, a series of studies on the internet internet-based enterprise crisis forewarning theory must be strengthened and the active application and development of it will help the enterprises take timely preventions and control the crises accurately and effectively. It also helps the enterprises solve the crises in time. Consequently, the study on crisis froewaring theory has become a lasting and systematic topic in modern enterprise crisis management and drawn great attention in public.
The main contents of this paper lie in:
1, Construction of enterprise crisis froewaring system(ECFS). ECFS has been constructed structurally; it analyzes and designs the concerete function of separate module, puts forward the constructing formula of ECFS and analyzes the operating principles, circulating mode and working pattern.
2, Study on the enterprises crisis forewarning monitoring module based on Intelligent meta-search engine. On the basis of analyzing enterprise crisis internet transmitting structure and transmitting process, it systematically analyzes and designs the froewaring monitoring working module and focuses on the intelligent meta-search engine consumering individual searching mode and implementing strategy of search engine optimization including search engine response speed, results volume, member search engine adjusting strategy and selective monitoring strategy based on result quality evaluation.
3, Study on enterprise crisis information evaluation mode based on 2-level froewaring principle. Level-1 froewaring evaluation ensures whether crisis is relied on the true information crisis and calculates the total froewaring degree; Level-2 targets at the internet rumors and also calculates the total froewaring degree. By buliding the 2-level froewaring mode, it designs the level-1 and level-2 index and analyzes the transmitting structure from the angle of information identification, information tracing and transmitting process. In the light of 2-level froewaring principles and application pattern recognition, it can foretell the froewaring degree of enterprise internet crisis and predict the development of enterprise crisis by applying grey system theory.
4, Study on enterprise internet crisis evaluation implementation and optimization of froewaring decision-making. In a crisis, the enterprise will face many stakeholders, and the Internet crisis will have a great influence on them. Therefore, we need to adopt a multifunctional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to value the related stakeholders, combining the multiple targets of enterprise crisis froewaring. When making decisions and draft choices, application of benchmarking method sounds a better one. By employing it, beneficiaries, rivals and enterprises can set up benchmarking standards; optimize the froewaring policies, improve the effectiveness and value of the enterprises and promote the long term development of the enterprises in the risky situation.
为此,必须加强网络环境下的企业危机预警理论的相关系列研究,并积极推动其在企业的应用和发展,以帮助企业实现网络环境下企业危机预警的及时、精准与高效,及时发出警报,为企业赢得时间,有效预防和化解危机。网络环境下的危机预警研究是现代企业危机管理中一个亟待深入而系统研究的重大课题。
全文的核心内容是:
(1)企业危机预警系统构建。从框架上构建了网络环境下的企业危机预警系统,分析并设计了系统各功能模块的具体职责,提出了网络环境下预警系统的建构程式,分析了网络环境下企业危机预警系统的运行理念、运行模式和工作流程。
(2)基于智能元搜索的企业危机预警监测模型研究。在分析企业危机网络传播结构和网络传播过程的基础上,系统分析并设计了网络传播智能元搜索引擎的预警监测工作模型,并重点研究了网络危机预警监测中的智能元搜索的用户个性化搜索模式和搜索引擎选择优化的实现策略,包括搜响应速度最快的搜索引擎选择策略、返回结果量最多的选择调度策略、成员搜索引擎性能评价选择调度策略、基于返回结果综合质量评价的选择调度策略。
(3)基于二评预警原理的企业危机信息评价模型研究。通过一评预警评价来确定危机是否是基于真实信息的危机,并计算危机总警度;二评则专门针对网络谣言评价并计算危机总警度。建构了网络传播危机预警信息二评组合模型,设计了网络危机预警一评指标和二评指标,从信息识别、信息追源、网络传播过程分析等角度分析了企业网络危机的传播结构。根据二评预警原理,应用模式识别理论方法判定企业网络危机的警度,运用灰色系统理论方法及技术预测企业网络危机的发展。
(4)企业网络危机评价实现及预警决策优化研究。企业危机面临众多的利益相关者,企业网络危机对各利益相关者都会产生深远影响。因此,需要结合企业危机预警的多重目标,采用多主体模糊综合评价法来实现企业网络危机对各利益相关者的综合评价。在企业危机预警决策及预案选择时,定标比超方法的引入是一个极佳的选择,通过企业危机预警领域有效的定标比超活动的开展,从多利益主体、竞争者和企业自身过往的同类危机决策中建立比超标杆,优化企业危机预警决策,提高企业危机预警决策的绩效和价值,实现危机常态化环境下企业的长远生存和发展。
Each enterprise will find its daily occurrence to face risk and crisis in its existence and development. The widespread of Internet has offered a broad stage full of information transmission. On one hand, the enterprises have facilitated a perfect and individual service for both consumers and public with the aid of the technique of networks; on the other hand, Internet has been to some extent a hub of certain negative information on account of social disorganization. With the outbreak of crisis, Internet has played the role of accelerating fake information. Rumors run rampant before the truth has been seriously investigated and revealed to the public because the internet is“too fast”.
Therefore, a series of studies on the internet internet-based enterprise crisis forewarning theory must be strengthened and the active application and development of it will help the enterprises take timely preventions and control the crises accurately and effectively. It also helps the enterprises solve the crises in time. Consequently, the study on crisis froewaring theory has become a lasting and systematic topic in modern enterprise crisis management and drawn great attention in public.
The main contents of this paper lie in:
1, Construction of enterprise crisis froewaring system(ECFS). ECFS has been constructed structurally; it analyzes and designs the concerete function of separate module, puts forward the constructing formula of ECFS and analyzes the operating principles, circulating mode and working pattern.
2, Study on the enterprises crisis forewarning monitoring module based on Intelligent meta-search engine. On the basis of analyzing enterprise crisis internet transmitting structure and transmitting process, it systematically analyzes and designs the froewaring monitoring working module and focuses on the intelligent meta-search engine consumering individual searching mode and implementing strategy of search engine optimization including search engine response speed, results volume, member search engine adjusting strategy and selective monitoring strategy based on result quality evaluation.
3, Study on enterprise crisis information evaluation mode based on 2-level froewaring principle. Level-1 froewaring evaluation ensures whether crisis is relied on the true information crisis and calculates the total froewaring degree; Level-2 targets at the internet rumors and also calculates the total froewaring degree. By buliding the 2-level froewaring mode, it designs the level-1 and level-2 index and analyzes the transmitting structure from the angle of information identification, information tracing and transmitting process. In the light of 2-level froewaring principles and application pattern recognition, it can foretell the froewaring degree of enterprise internet crisis and predict the development of enterprise crisis by applying grey system theory.
4, Study on enterprise internet crisis evaluation implementation and optimization of froewaring decision-making. In a crisis, the enterprise will face many stakeholders, and the Internet crisis will have a great influence on them. Therefore, we need to adopt a multifunctional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to value the related stakeholders, combining the multiple targets of enterprise crisis froewaring. When making decisions and draft choices, application of benchmarking method sounds a better one. By employing it, beneficiaries, rivals and enterprises can set up benchmarking standards; optimize the froewaring policies, improve the effectiveness and value of the enterprises and promote the long term development of the enterprises in the risky situation.
引文
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